Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
S&P Global Flags New Wave of Emerging‑Market Credit Downgrades Amid Middle East Conflict
S&P Global warned that sovereigns in emerging markets are entering a new credit‑downgrade era as the Middle East war pushes commodity prices higher and tightens financing conditions. The agency says the shock threatens fiscal balances in import‑dependent economies such as India, Turkey and Kenya, while also weighing on exporters.
Kin Aims to Upsize Hestia Re 2026-1 Cat Bond to as Much as $335m
Kin Insurance is increasing the size of its Hestia Re 2026-1 catastrophe bond to between $325 million and $335 million, up from the original $300 million target. The bond will be issued in four tranches, providing fully‑collateralized named‑storm reinsurance for...
March Market Turmoil: Dollar Rises,
In March: - US dollar set for best month since 2024, bond yields poised for largest monthly rise since 2024 - S&P poised for biggest monthly drop since 2022 -Brent crude set for its biggest ever monthly gain - Average US gas prices are...
FLXR: High-Quality Diversified Bond ETF, Outstanding Risk-Return Profile
The TCW Flexible Income ETF (FLXR) targets high‑quality, short‑term bonds amid persistently elevated Federal Reserve rates, delivering a 5.7% dividend yield. Its actively managed, diversified portfolio spans major bond sub‑asset classes while maintaining lower volatility than many peers. The fund’s...
Coupon Supply vs GDP Reveals Misleading Percentage Metrics
not a big fan of doing percentage shares of the outstanding when the outstanding is way up -- here is a chart of coupon supply as a stock normalized v GDP 1/2 https://t.co/yTbJuALpQ8
Maintain Credit Spreads, Avoid Blowouts for Weeks
Just keep credit spreads from blowing out for a few more weeks is all I ask.
BX 2026-ALOHA Issues Single-Borrower $1.2 Billion, CMBS Deal
BX 2026‑ALOHA has launched a $1.2 billion single‑borrower CMBS transaction. The deal, backed by a non‑recourse first‑lien mortgage, covers 36 Hawaii properties—20 retail, 15 industrial and two office assets—leasing 92.7% to over 670 tenants. KBRA assigned AAA, AA‑, and A‑ ratings...
Hong Kong's Lai Sun Seeks Maturity Extension for July Dollar Bond
Lai Sun Development has asked bondholders to extend the maturity of its $493 million July 2024 bond by three years, offering to repay 20% of the principal upfront. The proposal, discussed in private meetings, would make Lai Sun one of the...
Bonds Beat Stocks YTD, AGG Shows Small Alpha
YTD... stocks $SPY -7.1% Bonds $AGG -0.2% Not a perfect zig-zag, but certainly some alpha in $AGG https://t.co/IWkDvMCo0x
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 27, 2026
Long‑term U.S. Treasury yields rose during the week ending March 27, 2026. The 30‑year note gained 0.02 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield climbed 0.05 points to 4.44 percent. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.94 percent. The modest increases reflect ongoing market expectations of...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Credit Rating on the Advances Issued by Cerberus Stepstone Levered LLC
Morningstar DBRS confirmed an A (high) rating on the advances of Cerberus Stepstone Levered LLC, a cash‑flow CLO backed primarily by U.S. senior‑secured middle‑market loans. The rating follows the agency’s annual surveillance under its Global CLO methodology and reflects compliance...
PSK: Ultra-Long Duration Debt Component At Risk From Debt Cost Revaluations
State Street’s SPDR ICE Preferred Securities ETF (PSK) is under pressure as its heavy financial sector weighting and long effective duration expose it to rising yields. The ETF’s ultra‑long‑duration debt component faces cost revaluation, eroding its resilience. Higher debt costs...
Morningstar DBRS Finalizes Its Provisional Credit Ratings on FIGRE Trust 2026-FL1
Morningstar DBRS finalized provisional ratings for FIGRE Trust 2026‑FL1 mortgage‑backed notes, assigning AAA to the $222.6 million Class A‑1 tranche and AA to the $28.7 million Class A‑2 tranche, among others. The transaction backs $274.6 million of first‑lien HELOCs originated by Figure, with...
Bureau Veritas Adds Climate Bonds Verifier Offices in China, Japan, India and France
Bureau Veritas has become an approved Climate Bonds Standard verifier in four new jurisdictions—China, Japan, India and France—broadening its global verification network. The move gives issuers in Asia and Europe local access to third‑party assurance, strengthening investor confidence in green...
Watch if France, Japan, UK Echo US Yield Drop
As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields. The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022. Whether they follow the US lead...
Chevron Corporation: Credit Rating Report
On March 20, 2026, DBRS, Inc. confirmed Chevron Corporation’s issuer rating at AA with a stable outlook. The rating underscores Chevron’s strong balance sheet, consistent cash generation, and disciplined capital allocation. Analysts view the AA rating as a vote of...
High‑Yield Spreads Below 400 Signal Market Bounce
The stock market is screaming fear. VIX at 31. The bond market? Shrugging. High-yield credit spreads are at 317 basis points — BELOW the 20-year average. One of these markets is wrong. If spreads stay below 400, we bounce. If they blow through 500, brace...
Lodging Delinquencies Surge, Driving Overall CMBS Rise
Where’s the next CRE pain point as I warned last year? @TreppWire CMBS Delinquency Rate increased 41 bps to 7.55% in March, reversing Feb’s decline. Lodging posted largest increase, jumping 137 bps to 7.31%, the first time it’s been >7% since...
CCD: Convertibles Can Leverage Equity Exposure, Time To Buy The Dip
The Calamos Dynamic Convertible and Income Fund (CCD) has fallen 9.5% from its February 2026 high amid equity market volatility and supply‑chain disruptions linked to the Iranian conflict. The closed‑end fund delivers an 11.35% yield and a $2.34 per‑share annual...
Private Credit Stress
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
10‑Year Yield Breach: Will Geopolitics
If the 10Y breaks 4.5%… does geopolitics change? Or does policy get forced to change first? https://t.co/yInQSNy76L
Ginnie Mae Gives Issuers a Break, Adds New Prepayment Data
Ginnie Mae announced immediate relief for issuers filing annual audited financial statements by eliminating the 15‑day advance notice for extension requests, allowing submissions through Ginnie Mae Central on the due date. The change comes as issuers manage a new audit...
Rising 10Y Yields and Inflation Pressure Asset Prices
"The 10Y and inflation moving up are not good for asset prices." Ram on @bitsandbips https://t.co/6eQLOwwmn9
Goldman Sachs Momentum Basket Slides over 7%, Near Yearly Low
MORE LIKE NOMENTUM Goldman Sachs’ high beta momentum long basket down >7% today, poised for its 4th worst session in the past year https://t.co/s1Xac2PsMI
Harvard Returns to Market with a $675 Million Bond Sale
Harvard University is pricing a $675 million tranche of unsecured general‑obligation revenue bonds, rated Aaa by Moody’s and AAA by S&P. The proceeds will fund campus construction, refinance 2016 bonds and repay commercial paper. The sale comes amid ongoing federal lawsuits,...
Jeffrey Sherman: Oil Price Causing Its Own Rate Hike | CNBC
Jeffrey Sherman of DoubleLine told CNBC that soaring oil prices are effectively creating a self‑inflicted rate hike, urging the Federal Reserve to look beyond commodity‑driven inflation and focus on labor‑market dynamics. He cautioned against aggressive cuts to the federal‑funds rate,...
TIPS Yields Are Super High and Kevin Esler Has Returned to Help You Build a TIPS Ladder Using tipsladder.com
Larry Kotlikoff and TIPS specialist Kevin Esler discuss why today’s high real yields on Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (around 2.5% on the 30‑year) make building a TIPS ladder an attractive way to protect retirement income. They explain how the free tool...
ADG 3/30: Stop and Shop
The JPMorgan‑led syndicate is trying to sell a $7.2 billion speculative‑grade bond package that finances Clayton, Dubilier & Rice’s leveraged buyout of Sealed Air. Investor demand has stalled at about $5 billion, forcing banks to raise coupons to 8.25‑8.5 % and price the...
The Real Risk Isn’t War- It’s What Comes Next
In this Macro Mondays episode, Mikkel Rostewald and Andreas dissect the ongoing Iran‑U.S. conflict, weighing the likelihood of diplomatic resolution versus a broader military escalation. They examine the immediate market fallout—oil supply disruptions, the impact on by‑products like helium and...
Invest Blindly? JOJO Watches Utilities, Spreads, Macro Risks
You wouldn't drive with your eyes closed. Why invest in credit without watching the signals? $JOJO keeps its eyes on utilities, spreads, and macro risk. Always. https://t.co/Ap3Tk7ZcGZ
No Risk Premium? Switch to Long Treasuries
When spreads offer no compensation for risk, you're not being paid to hold credit. Period. $JOJO shifts to long-duration Treasuries when the signal confirms it. https://t.co/GLMuxK8o97
IDB Invest and Proparco Partner with Millicom to Expand Digital Infrastructure Across Latin America
IDB Invest and French development finance firm Proparco are jointly investing $100 million in a Colombian‑peso‑denominated bond issued by Millicom International Cellular. Each institution will anchor $50 million, financing network upgrades across Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama and Paraguay. The proceeds...
TLT Rally May Mask Inflation Risk, Not a Safe Haven
$TLT can rally in a recession and still be a bad trade if inflation expectations won’t chill. Duration isn’t a safe haven when the bond market stops believing. https://t.co/Rb9uYrLUHk
Powell Refuses to Entertain Warsh's Rate‑cut Pitch
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."
BIG NUMBER 3.73%
Investors now expect the Federal Reserve’s benchmark federal funds rate to end 2026 at 3.73%, near the top of its current 3.50‑3.75% range. This marks a 70‑basis‑point increase from a month ago when three cuts were anticipated, driven by heightened...
US Treasury Yields Slip, 10‑year Hits 4.334%
Tplex: UST Yields moving lower today.... Dimes +24/32's 110-29 10 Yr Notes 4.334% (-10.6 bp's)
Powell Claims Inflation Expectations Still Well Anchored
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
Credit Crunch: GSAM’s McClain on High Yield Risks, Resilience
In this episode of Credit Crunch, Goldman Sachs’ global co‑head of high yield and bank loans, John McClain, discusses the current state of the below‑investment‑grade market, noting that high‑yield spreads have stabilized in the low‑300 bps range and that double‑B issuers are...
Markets Price 5bps of Rate Cuts This Year
Cuts winning out vs hikes now. Market net pricing 5 bps of cuts this year https://t.co/jSHybRo8Ni
Powell Says Fed Tools Can't Curb Supply Shocks, Halting Hikes
*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS This is in my opinion the right take, and it completely punctures the probability of rate hikes in the US. They are going to sit this one through
Credit Crunch: GSAM’s McClain on High Yield Risks, Resilience
Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s high‑yield co‑head John McClain says the post‑COVID high‑yield market remains robust, with scarce new issuance, minimal downgrades and strong investor demand anchored by elevated base rates. Credit spreads are holding at reasonable levels, reflecting solid underlying...
$JOJO: CE-Credit Webinar on Credit Regimes and Allocation Discipline
The CE‑Credit approved webinar on March 31, 2026, will dissect credit market regimes and their impact on allocation discipline. Hosted by Michael A. Gayed, CFA, the session outlines how spread phases create distinct risk environments and why static exposure can...
Junk Credit Spreads Widening, Still Early In Trend
Junk credit spreads are certainly widening, but if this is going to become a meaningful move, we are not even out of the first inning. https://t.co/KwASCn8uAh
US Policy Follows Bonds, Not Oil, Amid QE
U.S. policy is governed by the bond markets, not oil prices. We will be doing QE and pumping asset prices like crazy in order to crash land the Treasury markets after this mess. cc: @LynAldenContact @lukegromen are over the target.
Treasury Curve Steepens After Weeks of Flattening
The U.S. Treasury yield curve, which has been flattening throughout 2026, showed a modest steepening on Friday as the 5‑year note held at 4.07% and the 30‑year bond nudged up to 4.98% by market close. The move came after bullish...
Navigating Credit Stress: Dislocations, Liquidity, and Private Risk
Credit markets are shaped by dislocations, liquidity, and risk. Kieran Goodwin of Saba Capital speaks to three decades in credit, risks in private credit, and positioning for stress. https://t.co/oiutNgtCW9 With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Treasury Yields Slip as Trump Talks About Peace, Ahead of Labor Data
Treasury yields slipped as President Trump hinted at progress in peace talks and investors turned to upcoming labor data. The 10‑year yield fell to about 4.37% and the two‑year to 3.86% early, later adjusting to roughly 4.40% and 3.89% per...
Stagflation Looms as US GDP Slows to 0.7% and Inflation Stays Above 3%
U.S. economic data released this week showed fourth‑quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.7% and consumer‑price inflation still running above 3% in January. Combined with soaring oil prices and rising Treasury yields, analysts warn the economy may be slipping into...
Falling
Core running south of headline is a “tell.” Will it catch @federalreserve off sides if they misinterpret the message of demand destruction?
Fed Funds Futures Return to Normal, Near‑Term Hike Priced Out
Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs. https://t.co/F0dnQCJ9pu