Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
This Corner of the EM Bond Market Is Worth Checking Out
Emerging‑market corporate bonds are delivering yields well above U.S. benchmarks, and the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund (EMCB) exemplifies this trend with a 5.07% SEC yield. The actively managed ETF holds a 3.97‑year effective duration, positioning it as an intermediate‑term diversifier with lower stock correlation. About 57% of its holdings are investment‑grade, helping mitigate default risk amid a backdrop of solid growth in emerging economies. With corporate defaults falling and credit outlooks improving, EM corporate debt is gaining recognition among U.S. investors.
Torsten Slok: $14 Trillion in IG Supply Coming to the Market
Torsten Slok warns that roughly $14 trillion of intermodal (IG) capacity will hit the market over the next two years, driven by a wave of new rail, truck and terminal assets. The surge could outpace demand, creating excess supply in freight...
Citigroup's Seasoned Mortgage Pool Secured $1 Billion in RMBS
Citigroup’s Mortgage Loan Trust issued a $1 billion residential mortgage‑backed securities (RMBS) transaction, CMLTI 2026‑RP1, backed by seasoned loans originated in 2019 or earlier. The pool shows strong performance, with 90.3% of loans maintaining a clean payment history and a low delinquency...
Baby Bond Target Updates
Throughout 2025, the research team issued a series of baby bond and preferred share target updates, adding new securities such as CIMP, AGNCZ, RITM‑E, NYMTH, TWOD, NYMTI, NYMTG, MITN, and MITP. The updates were released on June 11, July 9, September 30, and...
Invesco Acquires Superstate Tokenized MMF, Marking Trad
BOOM: Invesco to Acquire Superstate's USTB Tokenized MMF Management One of first acquisitions of a crypto-native fund by TradFi asset manager. TradFi now majority of top 10 tokenized MMFs $2.2T asset manager Invesco acquiring management of $USTB ($950M AUM, 5th largest tokenized...
Bond Yields Fall After Promising Iran News, Offering Relief Following Latest Mortgage Rate Jump
Mortgage rates surged to a 6.43% 30‑year fixed level as the Iran conflict intensified, pushing borrowing costs higher. Ten‑year Treasury yields fell to around 4.32% after reports of U.S.–Tehran de‑escalation talks, offering a modest relief for mortgage pricing. The Federal...
Weak Demand at U.S. Two‑Year Treasury Auction Signals Diminished Safe‑Haven Appeal
The latest two‑year Treasury note auction attracted below‑average demand, sending the yield down four basis points to 3.86%. The softening appetite reflects waning safe‑haven appeal as investors weigh Middle‑East tensions and a mixed equity outlook.
BHK: Ravaged By Higher Rates, Will Remain Under Pressure
BlackRock Core Bond Trust (BHK) has been downgraded to a Sell as higher interest rates and inflationary pressure from the Iran conflict strain its performance. The fund’s portfolio now leans 80% toward investment‑grade corporate credit and carries a 33.9% leverage...
FLOT: One Of My Favourite Low Duration Instruments
The iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF (FLOT) is gaining attention for its low‑duration, variable‑rate exposure that cushions investors against rising interest rates. Its floating‑rate structure delivers yields that outpace traditional cash equivalents and short‑duration bond funds while keeping price volatility...
The Cycle
Canada’s 5‑year government bond yield surged from 2.6% to 3.2% within weeks, while the 30‑year benchmark climbed to 4%, reflecting heightened inflation fears tied to the Ukraine war, soaring energy costs and lingering tariff pressures. The yield jump has already...
What Are Retail Bonds and Are They Worth It?
Secured Fixed Income is marketing a three‑year retail bond at 7.5% interest with a £1,000 minimum investment (about $1,270), positioning it against top savings accounts that top out at 4.75%. The product falls under the FCA‑approved "access bond" category, which...
Ex‑PhD Punk Rocker Built $135B Bond Empire
Which bond titan ditched a Ph.D. for punk rock, emailed his way into Wall Street, then built a $135B fortress overnight?
T‑Bills: Safe, Steady Growth for Young Nigerians
Treasury Bills will not make you rich overnight. But they will grow your money safely, consistently and with zero drama; which is exactly what every young Nigerian investor needs as a foundation. Start lending to the government, and get paid.
Fitch Reaffirms Ghana's B‑ Rating, Adds RR4 Recovery Rating for Investors
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ghana's long‑term sovereign rating at B‑ and introduced a RR4 recovery rating, marking the first time the agency embeds recovery assumptions into its sovereign framework. The move removes Ghana from Under Criteria Observation and keeps a...
MSD: Best To Avoid For Now And To Reconsider An Entry Point Next Year
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund (MSD) has delivered strong returns since 2022, buoyed by rising rates, macro improvements, and a weaker dollar. The fund offers high‑yield, diversified exposure to sovereign, corporate and quasi‑sovereign debt across lesser‑tracked emerging markets. Recent...
BOJ Policymakers Signal Readiness for More Rate Hikes as Inflation Pressures Persist
Bank of Japan minutes from the January meeting show policymakers leaning toward additional rate hikes, citing persistent inflation and a depreciating yen. The central bank kept the short‑term rate at 0.75% but signalled a hawkish shift, while markets price a...
Morgan Stanley Warns Hawkish Fed Outlook Is Biggest Market Risk, Upending Rate‑cut Consensus
Morgan Stanley issued a stark research note warning that a hawkish Federal Reserve, rather than economic weakness, now poses the greatest risk to markets. The bank says investors are underestimating the Fed's inflation‑first stance after the March 18 FOMC held...
Markets Overestimate Rate Hikes; PMI Says Otherwise
The markets now think the ECB and BOE will now hike rates by at least 50bps apiece, and the RBA will hike by at least another 50bps on top of the 50bps they've done already. The PMI data says otherwise....
US Faces $10 Trillion Debt Refinance, Interest Pressure Rising
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
Goldman Sachs Lifts US Recession Odds to 30% as Oil Shock Fuels Risk
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2026 to a 30% probability, up from 25%, citing a confluence of geopolitical tension, higher oil prices and waning fiscal support. The revised outlook is prompting corporations to tighten budgets...
Rising 10‑Year Yields Signal Regime Shift, Not Safety
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
10-Year Yield Climbs Amid Accelerating Inflation Nowcast
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%
Dividend ETFs Target Large‑Cap Income Seekers as Bond Yields Stagnate
Investors are gravitating toward dividend‑focused large‑cap ETFs—Schwab SCHD, Vanguard VYM and iShares DGRO—as alternatives to low‑yield bonds, with yields ranging from 2% to 3.5%. The move reflects persistent weak bond returns and a search for income plus equity upside.
Yield Spikes Signal Worldwide Reset, Not US‑only Trend
It may be tempting to think that the rise in yields is the product of a US-centric dynamic (relating to OPEC recycling no/fewer petrodollars into Treasuries), but the next chart shows that yields are rising everywhere. This is global reset,...
5-Year UST Auction Likely Tough After Poor 2-Year
UST 5y auction will be interesting after a nasty 2y yesterday. Some news cross-currents may have affected clean bidding for 2s which should be a factor for 5s today as well. Also more of a concession would be...
U.S. Treasury Two‑Year Note Auction Draws $69 Bn with Weak 2.44 Bid‑to‑Cover Ratio
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $69 bn of two‑year notes on March 24, posting a high yield of 3.936% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.44, well under the ten‑auction average of 2.62. The soft demand underscores growing investor caution amid rising yields...
10-Year Yield Near Critical Triangle Breakout Threatening Markets
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
Yield Spike Near 4.5% Signals Market Trouble
Long yields broke out last week and finished the week at 4.39%. As I have written many times, nothing good happens above 4.5% when the risk-free rate is competitive with risky assets, as is now the case. https://t.co/mq0q2S2nBU
JPMorgan Launches $8 Bn Junk‑bond Sale to Fund Record $55 Bn EA Buyout
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has kicked off an $8 bn junk‑bond issuance to fund the $55 bn leveraged buyout of video‑game maker Electronic Arts, the biggest takeover in history. The deal splits into $5.5 bn of secured notes and $2.5 bn of unsecured bonds,...
Investors Shun Bond Dip Amid Massive Losses
$TLT bleeding $1.2B. $HYG losing $623M. Credit spreads widening. Nobody is buying the dip in bonds. What do they know? $LQD $BND https://t.co/88YFIH3YtD
Fed Cuts Fail to Curb
the @federalreserve has cut interest rates six times since Sep '244 and U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen from 3.7% to 4.4% since that cutting program began... https://t.co/EQHFpoQsIC
SRTs-Still-Offer-a-Spread-Premium-over-ABS-Despite-Tightening
Synthetic risk transfer securities (SRTs) continue to trade at a spread premium over comparable asset‑backed securities (ABS), despite a broader tightening of credit markets. Tristan Teoh of Insight Investment notes the premium sits around 30‑50 basis points, reflecting strong investor...
2‑Year Treasury Yield Jumps To
The March 2026 US Treasury 2-year yield hit 3.93%, up sharply from 3.45% last month. This is the highest yield since May 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFF WAR AND WAR ON IRAN ARE RATTLING BOND MARKETS. https://t.co/TfJWZRALwu
Metrobank Closes Sustainability Bond Offer
Metrobank closed its public offer for the Series F ASEAN Sustainability peso‑denominated bonds a week early, citing strong investor demand. The 1.5‑year bonds carry a fixed 5.4727% coupon and will be listed on the Philippine Dealing & Exchange Corp. on April 14....
Treasury Yields Return to Trump Era, Signaling Market Anxiety
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
Ares Honors Few Redemptions, Claims Stakeholder Alignment
Ares: 11.6% redemption requests. Honored 5%. Called it “aligned with the best interests of all stakeholders.” The stakeholders who wanted their money back might define “best interests” differently.
Climate Fund Managers Joins Climate Bonds Network to Target $2.8‑$4 B in Emerging‑Market Green Bonds
Climate Fund Managers (CFM) has entered a partnership with the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI) to create a dedicated platform for emerging‑market climate bonds, aiming to raise between $2.8 billion and $4 billion. The move signals a major infusion of fixed‑income capital into...
Markets Revise Expectations for Price‑Stability‑Focused Central Banks
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
No Change in Borrowing Plan for Now – DOF Chief
The Philippines will keep its 2026 borrowing plan unchanged, targeting roughly $48 billion with 77% sourced domestically and 23% from abroad. The peso recently slid to a record low of 60.30 per dollar, heightening foreign‑exchange concerns amid the Middle East crisis....
This Active Bond ETF Just Hit a Key Milestone as Market Vol Rises
The T. Rowe Price Ultra Short‑Term Bond ETF (TBUX) crossed the $1 billion assets‑under‑management mark on March 4, buoyed by more than $100 million of net inflows in the prior month. Now in its fifth year, the fund charges a modest 0.17% expense ratio...
Jeffrey Gundlach: The Case for Rate Cuts Is Falling Apart | CNBC
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, told CNBC that the market’s expectation of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts is eroding as inflation remains sticky and the two‑year Treasury yield sits above the policy rate. He highlighted a widening gap between calm...
Spain Moots New SFDR Eligibility Pathway for Sovereign Bonds
Spain’s finance ministry has floated a new eligibility pathway that would allow sovereign bonds to be classified as sustainable under the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR). The proposal seeks to broaden the pool of assets that can meet ESG...
War‑Driven Fed Outlook Ends Rate‑Cut Expectations
Despite investors’ previous hopes for rate cuts, Trump’s war has worsened the Fed outlook — with markets now not expecting further cuts this year (or next). My @morningjoe Chart
War Triggers Swing From Expected Cuts to Near‑zero Hikes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Crisis Unites Yield and Oil: Correlations Converge
Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q
Municipal Closed-End Funds Squeezed
Municipal Closed End Funds feeling the Rate complex heat of higher yields as well as credit risk pressures turning up.
Understanding Persistent Foreign Private Demand for U.S. Treasuries
This raises an important question -- namely how should we understand ongoing demand for Treasuries from private investors abroad? 1/ https://t.co/IVZNahIfEc
US Yield Rise Threatens Debt Spiral Amid Oil Tensions
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
2‑Year Treasury Auction Weakest Since May 2024
“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing...
Supply Pressure Keeps Rates Elevated Amid Fed Pause
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase...