Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
Aptiv Subsidiaries Begin $1.5bn Notes Offering for EDS Spin-Off
Aptiv’s subsidiaries have launched a $1.5 bn private senior notes offering tied to the planned spin‑off of its Electrical Distribution Systems (EDS) unit. The notes, due in 2031 and 2034, will be held in escrow until the separation is finalized. In parallel, the co‑issuers secured an $850 m senior secured revolving credit facility and a $500 m senior secured term loan. Proceeds, together with the term loan, will fund a dividend to Aptiv, leaving Versigent with roughly $300 m cash for ongoing operations.
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Nordic CTAs Thrive in February’s Volatile Macro Landscape
February was a strong month for Nordic CTA managers, making CTAs the top‑performing sub‑strategy in the Nordic Hedge Index. Gains were anchored by fixed‑income and soft‑commodity profits, with all trend‑following managers posting positive returns. Several non‑trend managers also delivered gains,...
BlackRock Wipes Private Credit Loans to Zero in Three Months
Well well well... BlackRock marked a private credit loan at 100 cents on the dollar in Q3. By Q4, it was a big fat ZERO. Not 80. Not 50. ZERO. In 3 months. This is the second time $TCPC has done this recently....
Iran Tensions Fail to Boost Bonds, Rates Keep Climbing
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
Investor Skepticism Creates Opportunity
An asset manager’s bonds are priced 50‑75 basis points wider than those of its major peers. Rating agencies signal potential upgrades, while the bond market doubts the firm’s credit health. The company’s fourth‑quarter results revealed record fundraising, growing margins, and...
Bond Volatility Bet Hurts Markets, Boosts TW MK
Treasury (TLT) buyer 5000 December $89 straddles expecting bond volatility, tends to be bad for markets, good for TW MKTX
Rising Oil Prices Force Fed to Pause, Trim 2026 Cuts
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
India Bonds Firm on RBI Buying Hopes, Stronger Rupee
Indian government bonds rallied on Thursday after a record ₹202 billion (≈$2.19 billion) of bonds were net‑bought by the RBI and institutional investors on Wednesday. The 10‑year benchmark yield steadied around 6.66%, reversing a brief rise, while the rupee strengthened to ₹91.61...
Bond Traders See Increasing Chance Of No Fed Cuts This Year
Bond options traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year. The probability of a no‑cut scenario rose to 25% by Wednesday, up from 17% before the Iran‑Israel conflict escalated. Higher oil prices from the Middle‑East...
Corporates Pivot to Banks as Primary Funding Source Amid Bond Market Volatility
Corporate bond issuance in India fell more than 20% year‑on‑year in February 2026, marking the weakest three‑year level. Meanwhile, banks reclaimed dominance, with their share of total commercial‑sector funding rising to about 63% in FY26, up from 51% a year...
CLO-and-ABS-Trends-From-SFVegas
At the annual SFVegas conference, industry leaders examined the latest CLO and ABS market dynamics. Panelists highlighted a rebound in fourth‑quarter CLO issuance, driven by a wave of resets and expanding private‑credit activity. Deutsche Bank warned that CLO equity will...
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
Mortgage rates slipped further in February, with the 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage averaging 6.05% and briefly dipping below the 6% mark, while the 15‑year rate fell to 5.43%. The 10‑year Treasury yield held near 4.18% for most of the month before...
California Trial Set in Rate-Rigging VRDO Case Against Banks
A California judge set a June 8 trial for a False Claims Act case accusing major Wall Street banks of conspiring to rig interest rates on variable‑rate demand bonds (VRDOs). The lawsuit, filed by municipal advisor Johan Rosenberg on behalf of...
XFLT: No, 20% Yield Is Not A Signal To Buy
Roberts Berzins warns that XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Trust (XFLT) remains a high‑risk vehicle despite a headline 20.9% yield. The trust’s portfolio is dominated by ultra‑high‑risk CLO equity and private‑credit positions, which have suffered repeated dividend cuts and...
Short‑Term Cash: Treasury MM or HYSA, Not Stocks
"I need to park $50k of cash for 12 months. What are my options?" > $VUSXX (Vanguard Treasury MM Fund) or any Treasury equivalent. State/local tax exempt, 3.63% yield > HYSA (FDIC insured, ~3%) Don’t invest it, unless 12 months turns into 12...
Yield Rise Minimal Despite Growing Middle East Tensions
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
Fidelity Total Bond ETF Q4 2025 Commentary
Fidelity Total Bond ETF delivered a 7.58% NAV return for 2025, edging the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index’s 7.30% performance. The Federal Reserve’s additional rate cuts in October and December lowered the target range to 3.5%‑3.75%, supporting bond prices. The...
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
10-Year Yield Stagnates
10-year yield action this week 🥱 considering all that has happened, maybe jobs Friday changes that https://t.co/30TFujFiHs
Andover Companies Aims to Upsize New Locke Tavern Re Cat Bond to as Much as $300m
Andover Companies, a long‑standing mutual insurer in the Northeast, is seeking to upsize its upcoming Locke Tavern Re cat‑bond to between $250 million and $300 million. The new Series 2026‑1 issuance will feature two tranches—Class A and Class B—each expanded to $125‑150 million, with price guidance...
Europe Faces Inflation Shock Twice US Level
Right now, Europe is looking at an inflation shock roughly double that of the US ~ 2%pts
ADP Beats Slightly, Minor Revision; Treasuries Unmoved
ADP with a slight beat along with small negative revision to previous month. Nothingburger. USTs yawn
Europe Bonds Extend Declines on Inflation Risk From Energy Spike
European sovereign bonds slipped for a third consecutive session as surging oil and natural‑gas prices revived inflation concerns. The rally in energy commodities coincided with a U.S. initiative to secure a key Middle‑East shipping lane, which failed to calm markets....
Inflation Nowcast Accelerates, Raising Q3 Bond Volatility
LIVE Shot of our Inflation Nowcast Accelerating into #Quad3 in Bond Market Volatility terms https://t.co/cTSAqYA6P7
Indonesia’s Rating Outlook Takes Further Blow as Fitch Cuts View
Fitch Ratings lowered Indonesia's credit outlook to negative, citing rising policy uncertainty. The agency kept the long‑term foreign‑currency issuer default rating at BBB, an investment‑grade level. This follows Moody's February decision to downgrade the outlook amid concerns over governance under...
Cat Bond Issuance Price Pressure Flattens Market Yield, Widening Less Pronounced: Plenum
Catastrophe‑bond yields stayed flat in February 2026, ending at 8.91% versus 8.87% in January. Primary issuances were priced roughly 30% lower than recent historical levels, generating price pressure that muted the expected seasonal spread widening after the hurricane season. Strong...
Core, Satellite, and Structural Premiums: PensionDanmark’s Approach to Emerging Market Debt
PensionDanmark has shifted the bulk of its emerging market debt portfolio from external managers to an internal team, now overseeing most hard‑currency and local‑currency sovereign exposure. The fund employs a core‑satellite framework, using the internal core for broad beta and...
Beazley CEO on Cyber ILS: Next Step Is Securitisation, Transformation, ILS Fund Launch in 2026
Beazley’s CEO Adrian Cox announced that the insurer will move beyond issuing cyber catastrophe bonds to full‑scale securitisation and transformation of cyber risks. A dedicated cyber insurance‑linked securities (ILS) fund is slated for launch in 2026, built on the company’s...
China’s Sovereign Debt Is Becoming a Strategic Alternative to US Treasuries: Economist
Chinese sovereign bonds are positioning themselves as a strategic alternative to US Treasuries, driven by investor demand for geopolitical hedges. Recent dollar‑denominated issuances in Hong Kong saw a 30‑times oversubscription, with coupon rates closely matching Treasury yields. Economist Xu Qiyuan...
DBS China Captures 38% of Panda Bond Market in 2025; Secures Principal Underwriting License
DBS China participated in 65.8 billion yuan of Panda‑bond issuances in 2025, capturing a 38% share of the China Interbank Bond Market. The bank also received a principal underwriting licence for non‑financial corporate bonds, the most extensive authority granted by the...
Triplepoint Venture Growth BDC Corp (TPVG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC reported a $73 million increase in its debt investment portfolio for Q3 2025, marking the third straight quarter of growth and a year‑to‑date rise of nearly $110 million. New commitments surged to $182 million, with 90% directed toward AI,...
Brookfield Asset Management Announces $1 Billion Commercial Paper Program
Brookfield Asset Management announced a new private‑placement commercial paper program with a $1 billion ceiling. The unsecured notes will be issued on a short‑term basis to diversify the firm’s funding mix and bolster its balance sheet. Proceeds are slated for general...
Fed Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Lasting Inflation Shock
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
MSRB Reform Bill Would Reverse Dodd-Frank Majority Public Mandate
Senator John Kennedy introduced the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board Reform Act of 2026, aiming to shift the MSRB’s governance to a majority of regulated representatives and tighten SEC oversight. The proposal would replace the current Dodd‑Frank‑mandated public‑representative majority with a...
NEW POD! How Credit Markets Shaped a Nation with Sarah Quinn
In the latest Net Interest Extra episode, sociologist Sarah Quinn discusses her book *American Bonds*, which argues that credit markets have been a foundational force in shaping the United States. Quinn traces how borrowing practices influenced industrial growth, urbanization, and...
Florida International University Upgraded to AA by Fitch
Fitch Ratings upgraded Florida International University's issuer default rating to AA, up from AA‑minus, and raised its parking‑revenue bonds to AA‑minus from A‑plus. The agency affirmed the dormitory‑revenue refunding bonds at A‑plus, while maintaining stable outlooks across all ratings. FIU’s...
Repeatable by Design: Meet the Full Discretion Team
Loomis Sayles introduced its Full Discretion team, highlighting a credit‑cycle lens, bottom‑up security analysis, and a disciplined, repeatable investment process. The team operates with full discretion to adjust allocations swiftly as market conditions evolve. The communication emphasizes that the methodology is...
Fed Sees Stable Labor, Cautious Optimism, Future Rate Cuts
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
Fitch Downgrades Paramount‑Skydance Debt to Junk After WBD Deal
Paramount Skydance Debt Downgraded to Junk Status by Fitch Ratings Following Warner Bros. Discovery Deal https://t.co/bBiUN3grT5 via @variety
Policy Paper: Debt Management Report 2026-27
The UK Treasury released its Debt Management Report for fiscal year 2026‑27, detailing the government’s financing requirements and the instruments to be used. The paper defines the remits of the Debt Management Office and National Savings & Investments, including cash‑management...
Markets Price Supply Shock, Real Rates Rise
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
Allocators Swap BCRED Redemptions for Discounted BXSL
Allocators are funding a logical switch trade: Redeeming BCRED at NAV to buy $BXSL at an -11% discount to NAV. Look for this dynamic to occur between every other private credit fund with both a non-traded and listed BDC.
The Dollar Is the Only Game in Town
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
Bond Volatility Stocks TW, MKTX Signal Market Trouble
Bond Volatility winners $TW $MKTX also always a good market hedge / indicator of trouble coming
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
3 Diversified Bond Mutual Funds for Balanced Investing
Zacks Investment Research highlights three top‑ranked diversified bond mutual funds—DWS Short Duration, Goldman Sachs Dynamic Bond, and iShares U.S. Intermediate Credit Bond Index Fund—each holding a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy. These funds provide investors with broad sector exposure, high...
Wider Term Premia Needed to Hedge Bond‑equity Shocks
Term premia should reflect the hedging qualities of government bonds. If we are going to keep getting negative supply shocks - which reduce equities and raise yields, creating a positive return correlation - term premia need to be a lot...
Sharp Dollar Rally Threatens Treasury Market Stability
The Dollar is rallying sharply. When this kind of Dollar strength happens, risk of disorderly market conditions and problems in the US Treasury market rise, because the highly leveraged basis trade can get hit as EM central banks sell their...
S&P Puts PSKY Ratings on CreditWatch, Negative Outlook
Just in: S&P Global Ratings placed all its ratings on global diversified media company PSKY, including the 'BB+' issuer credit rating and our issue-level ratings on its debt, on CreditWatch with negative implications