Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Illinois' CGFA Analyzes Pritzker's Budget, Sees More Bonding
The Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability projects $3.2 billion in bond issuances for FY2027, pushing total outstanding debt to $29.9 billion. Improved credit ratings have lowered true interest costs to about 4.95% for taxable bonds, down from 5.35% earlier in 2024. Governor Pritzker’s budget earmarks $12.7 billion for new capital projects, with $3.2 billion funded through bonds and an additional $4.2 billion request for future authorizations. Recent legislation raises both general‑obligation and Build Illinois bond caps, expanding financing capacity.
Houston Watching Market to Bring Back High-Yield United Deals
Houston Treasurer Vernon Lewis announced the city will attempt to re‑enter the market with a speculative‑grade United Airlines bond issuance worth roughly $400 million. The deal, originally slated for November, was shelved twice—first due to weak investor interest and later because...
LAPSSET Corridor Completion Accelerates as Afri Fund Capital Plans to Secure $6 Billion for the Final Construction of Ethiopia-Lamu Port...
Afri Fund Capital announced a $6 billion cross‑listed debt issuance to fund the final phase of the LAPSSET Corridor, linking Ethiopia to Kenya’s Lamu Port. The bonds will be listed on the Nairobi and London exchanges, with a third listing in...
Trump's Iran Threat Drives Treasury Volatility, Long Bonds Lag
Trump’s Iran ultimatum is basically the only story for bond traders today. USTs have seen a volatile morning, swinging back and forth in reaction to the news and moves in crude oil prices. They are now recovering from the early...
Yahoo Launches $1.6B
Yahoo kicking off a $1.6B refi. S+550 at 98.5. Mid-to-high 9s. Apollo paid $5B for this in 2021. Existing debt matures in 2027. Let’s see how this goes
New Hampshire Pulls Refunding Component of Deal
New Hampshire postponed the refunding portion of its annual $83 million general obligation (GO) bond sale, citing unfavorable market conditions. The state proceeded with a $60 million tranche sold to TD Bank at a true interest cost of 3.5723%, while the $23 million...
6% Yield Trigger Could Force US Debt Restructuring
See my 10Y yield targets then read this quote by Jeff Gundlach: “Well, I think my base case is that the long-term interest rates on treasuries will move higher until such time as they get to a level that is difficult...
Flat Yields Signal Recession Concerns over Inflation
Should we be concerned that bond yields and mortgage rates are flat/down in the midst of current events? Especially on the back of a hot jobs report... You can call it "wait or see" or maybe things are a lot worse...
Bond Traders Risk Being Wrongfooted by 2022 Playbook, UBS Warns
UBS chief strategist Bhanu Baweja warns bond traders that markets are pricing a 2022‑style, coordinated central‑bank tightening in response to the Iran war, which may be unrealistic. He argues that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England...
Housing Market Resilient Amid Rising Mortgage Spreads
Today's podcast discusses #mortgage spreads and how the #housing market is holding up with wartime #economics @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #chartdaddy
Fed Hawkishness, Weak Wages, Energy Surge Push Yields Higher
Trifecta of a hawkish Fed, slowing wage growth and surging energy prices seems like a bad combo at a time when household debt delinquencies were already mounting. The 10-year Treasury yield hasn't been this high relative to the growth rate...
Anchorage Digital, Custodies USDM1, On-Chain Sovereign Debt Issued by the Republic of the Marshall Islands
Anchorage Digital, a federally chartered digital‑asset bank, announced it will custody USDM1, a U.S.‑dollar‑denominated sovereign debt instrument issued on the blockchain by the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The debt is collateralized one‑to‑one with U.S. Treasury securities and is issued...
IMF Warns of Emerging Markets’ Exposure to ‘Flighty’ Hedge Funds
The International Monetary Fund warned that emerging‑market economies are becoming increasingly exposed to sudden capital outflows from hedge funds that can shift positions quickly. Hedge funds have expanded their holdings of sovereign and corporate debt in these markets, often using...
Muni Tools of the Trade Make Us Better Practitioners
The article outlines the expanding toolbox of data platforms that municipal bond practitioners rely on, from the MSRB’s EMMA repository to subscription services like Bloomberg and MMA. It highlights how both free government sites and paid analytics help issuers, advisors,...
Bluerock High Income Credit Fund Posts 8.75% Annualized Distribution in Q1 2026
Bluerock High Income Institutional Credit Fund reported an 8.75% current annualized distribution rate for Q1 2026, delivering $0.49 per share to investors. The fund's $179 million AUM and exposure to $57.9 billion of underlying loan value underscore its role in the high‑income...
Fault Lines And Flashpoints: Navigating Credit Markets Through A Geopolitical Shock
Calamos Fixed Income managers expect Middle‑East tensions to ease within months, allowing energy prices to fall and the Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts in the latter half of 2026. Their defensive credit positioning, built in prior quarters, shielded the...
Texas Confronts Eye-Popping Water Needs that Threaten Its Growth Story
Texas faces a looming water shortage that threatens its rapid population and economic growth. The Texas Water Development Board estimates $174 billion—about $3.5 billion per year—will be needed for water infrastructure over the next 50 years, with mega‑projects like $10 billion reservoirs on...
The RBC iShares Alliance Expands Lineup with the Launch of Five New Exchange-Traded Funds
The RBC iShares alliance launched five new exchange‑traded funds on the Toronto Stock Exchange, adding three 2032 target‑maturity bond ETFs (Canadian government, Canadian corporate, and U.S. corporate) and two actively managed equity ETFs covering Canadian and U.S. large‑cap stocks. Management...
UK, Japan, Euro Periphery Lose Fiscal Space
What countries are running out of fiscal space? To see that, you mustn't look at absolute 30-year government bond yields (lhs), as those are up everywhere. Look at 30-year trade-weighted differentials (rhs). The UK, Japan and Euro periphery are in...
Pioneer CAT Bond Fund Nears $2bn AUM Milestone, Dedicated ILS Fund Assets over $5.2bn
The Victory Pioneer CAT Bond Fund is on the cusp of a $2 billion AUM milestone, while the combined assets of Pioneer’s dedicated mutual and institutional insurance‑linked securities (ILS) funds now top $5.2 billion. The cat bond fund posted a 12.82% return...
Schwab Flags Liquidity Stress in Private Credit as Redemptions Surge
Charles Schwab warned that private‑credit funds are confronting a "reasonably large‑scale liquidity issue" after redemption requests surged, forcing Apollo to cap withdrawals at 11.2% of a $25 billion BDC and prompting Blackstone to lift its BCRED fund's quarterly cap to 7.9%....
Japan 30-Year Bond Sale Sees Tepid Demand Ahead of Iran Deadline
Japan’s latest auction of 30‑year government bonds recorded a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 3.12, the lowest level since June and below the 12‑month average of 3.36. Investor demand softened as market participants remained wary of escalating tensions in the Middle East,...
JPMorgan Flags $1 Trillion U.S. Grid Upgrade as Massive Investment Opportunity
JPMorgan’s March 25 research report labels the 60‑year‑old U.S. power grid a national‑security risk and estimates roughly $1 trillion of upgrades will be required by 2035. The bank says the scale of spending will create a flood of debt and equity...
Investors Prefer Inflation Swaps Over Sketchy 1‑Year TIPS
Glad folks are finally using the inflation swap.. not the often-sketchy 1yr TIPS breakeven rate... remember this chart that made the rounds in March lol https://t.co/pHxDS0B0gu
Rising Rates Push Mortgage Costs Higher, Weigh on Treasury Yields
Interest on the U.S. federal debt is set to overtake Social Security spending, driving Treasury yields up and nudging mortgage rates toward multi‑decade highs. The surge reflects soaring fiscal outlays, especially on defense, and threatens to dampen the housing market.
Morningstar DBRS Assigns a Final Credit Rating of BBB, Stable Trend on Bell Canada's Senior Unsecured Debt Issuance
Morningstar DBRS assigned a final BBB rating with a Stable trend to Bell Canada’s C$750 million (≈US$555 million) senior unsecured MTN debentures, 4.40% due 2033. The notes are fully guaranteed by BCE Inc., which also carries a BBB‑low rating. Proceeds will be used...
Munis Keep Firming, Long-Term USTs See Small Gains
Municipal bonds continued to firm, posting modest spot gains and extending a week‑plus rally, while long‑term U.S. Treasuries edged higher. The yield curve fell each day last week, prompting strong dealer inquiries, especially in the 10‑ to 15‑year segment hit...
Dimon Warns Credit Cycle Risks as Geopolitical Tensions Spur Bond Market Unease
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and rising oil shocks could reignite a credit cycle, raising corporate and sovereign bond spreads. His annual shareholder letter also highlighted a business exodus from New York, underscoring...
NYC's Massive Deficit Threatens Even Safe Government Bonds
Government bonds are generally considered a safe investment. But NYC’s budget deficit is so massive  that there’s a real risk of collapse, and perhaps the need for a bailout.
US Corporate CDS Volumes Surge as Default Risks Rise
US corporate CDS trading volumes are hitting record highs. According to Bloomberg, traders are активно hedging against rising default risks in the corporate sector. https://t.co/1BCuqL0egW
PIMCO Expands Active ETF Lineup With Timely Inflation-Linked Launch
PIMCO has launched the Inflation PLUS Active ETF (PCPI), an inflation‑linked fund that combines ultra‑short TIPS with derivatives such as CPI swaps. The ETF carries a net expense ratio of 25 basis points, positioning it as a low‑cost, actively managed hedge...
Japan's 10‑Year Yield Peaks, Yen Slumps to 160
Japanese Government 10-Year Yield Highest since 1997, Yen at 160 despite Intervention Threats, But Bond Vigilantes Still Dead. Inflation and deteriorating yen pushed the BOJ into hawkish stance, and bond yields are on their own https://t.co/sF7g5sRsaq https://t.co/XX7yIUKRhS
Lipsky Cited in Bloomberg Article Detailing Why the Iran War May Impact Trump’s Goal of Lowering Interest Rates
A Bloomberg piece cites Atlantic Council analyst Josh Lipsky to explain how the escalating war in Iran could derail former President Donald Trump’s longstanding ambition to push the Federal Reserve toward lower interest rates. The conflict is inflating geopolitical risk...
Credit Crises Always Begin with Historically Low Spreads
Every major credit event in the last 20 years started with spreads near historic lows. Every one. $JOJO exists for exactly this setup. https://t.co/HDTwfAvNu3
Fitch Upgrades Vedanta Resources to BB-, Outlook Stable
Fitch Ratings upgraded Vedanta Resources to BB‑ from B+, marking its highest bond rating in a decade. The agency cited expectations of higher commodity prices, increased volumes, and lower operating costs as catalysts for stronger earnings before interest, tax, depreciation...
Morningstar DBRS Assigns AAA Credit Rating to RBC Global Covered Bonds, Series CB105
Morningstar DBRS has assigned a AAA rating to RBC’s Series CB105 covered bonds, a $750 million issuance maturing in April 2029 with a 4.139 % coupon. The bonds are backed by a diversified pool of Canadian residential mortgages valued at roughly $119.3 billion CAD...
Muni Market Sees Minimal Tax Selling
The municipal bond market entered the 2024 tax season with less selling pressure than usual, as investors leaned on cash and money‑market funds rather than liquidating muni holdings. Investment‑grade munis slipped 2.32% in March, pulling year‑to‑date returns to –0.18%, while...
Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War Vs. Now
The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) now trades about 23 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s median funds‑rate projections for both year‑end 2023 and the end of 2027. This premium emerged after the war in the Middle East shifted market...
Lancaster County Schools, South Carolina, Outlook Lowered to Negative
S&P Global Ratings lowered the outlook for Lancaster County School District in South Carolina to negative after the district tapped its reserves in fiscal 2024 and 2025. The agency affirmed the district’s general‑obligation bonds at AA‑minus and its installment‑purchase revenue...
Private Credit Market Nears Size of High‑Yield Bonds
Learned alot from the annual shareholder letter from Jamie Dimon on tailwinds/headwinds to economy including perspective on Private Credit. PC Mkt is $1.8T, HY Bond Mket is $1.5T, Bank Syndicated Leverage Loan Mkt $1.7T. Total IG Bond Mkt...
Wheels Fleet Lease Funding 2026-1 LLC: Presale Report
DBRS (Morningstar DBRS) issued provisional credit ratings for the note classes of Wheels Fleet Lease Funding 2026‑1 LLC. The senior A‑1 tranche received an (P) R‑1 (high) rating, while the A‑2‑I, A‑2‑II and A‑3 tranches were assigned (P) AAA. The subordinate...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Credit Ratings on All Classes of CSAIL 2015-C1 Commercial Mortgage Trust
Morningstar DBRS confirmed the credit ratings for all classes of the CSAIL 2015‑C1 Commercial Mortgage Trust, assigning AA (low) to Class B and X‑B, A (low) to Class C, CCC to Classes D and X‑D, and C to Classes E,...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Credit Ratings on Three J.G. Wentworth Transactions
Morningstar DBRS confirmed the credit ratings for every class of securities in three J.G. Wentworth asset‑backed securitizations. The agency highlighted robust credit enhancement, the strong credit profile of annuity providers, and a track record of zero defaults to date. Ratings...
Unsurprising
The US‑Israel‑Iran war has reignited an energy shock, spurring inflation and pushing bond yields higher, which in turn lifted Canadian mortgage rates from roughly 3.5% in February to about 4.2% today. Higher borrowing costs are dampening demand across Canada’s housing...
US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged through the next year, leaving Treasury yields largely flat. Two‑year yields hovered near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34% after strong payroll data revived a bond‑bearish bias....
Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations
The 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread rose 14 basis points through March 31, reaching a 21‑bp gain by April 3, while the DKW model’s five‑year inflation expectation increased 10 basis points over the same window. A simple conversion suggests that a 10‑bp rise...
RBI Keeps Investment Limit for FPIs in G-Secs Unchanged for FY27
The Reserve Bank of India confirmed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) can continue to hold up to 6 percent of India’s outstanding government securities through the general route for fiscal year 2026‑27. The split between the General and Long‑term sub‑categories remains...
US Treasury Yield Curve Upward Sloping As Iran Conflict Continues (Strait Of Hormuz Effectively Closed)
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has returned to a classic upward slope, with long‑term rates climbing faster than a year ago. The shift coincides with heightened geopolitical risk as the Strait of Hormuz—key for global oil shipments—has effectively shut down...
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & the Asset Gatherers
The Institutional Risk Analyst published a brief note asking whether major Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley represent good value at current levels. The piece reveals the author’s modest position in Flagstar Bank, purchased well below...
US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold, leaving two‑year Treasury yields near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34%. The market’s steadiness reflects lingering uncertainty from the Iran‑U.S. conflict, especially after President Trump...