Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
JD.com (JD) Announces Pricing of CNY10B Offshore Notes Offering
JD.com announced pricing of a CNY10 billion (~$1.4 billion) offshore senior unsecured notes offering. The deal comprises a CNY7.5 billion tranche due 2031 at 2.05% and a CNY2.5 billion tranche due 2036 at 2.75%, with closing expected around April 10 and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, primarily to repay existing debt and cover interest. The securities were offered to non‑U.S. investors under Regulation S.
Iran Conflict Fuels Volatility in Interest‑rate Swap Markets
Uncertainty over how the Iran war will affect the global economy is stirring volatility in interest-rate swap markets https://t.co/6hCS7QWGmZ via @highisland https://t.co/GLOEYbXZko
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Threatens UST Long‑end Auctions
This is a high-stakes week for the bond market. The recent spike in crude prices - fueled by the conflict in Iran - will show up in March’s inflation data. The consensus on Wall Street is a headline print...
JD.com (JD) Announces Pricing of CNY10B Offshore Notes Offering
On April 1, JD.com Inc. priced a CNY 10 billion ($1.4 billion) offshore senior unsecured notes offering. The deal comprises a CNY 7.5 billion ($1.05 billion) 2031 tranche at 2.05% and a CNY 2.5 billion ($350 million) 2036 tranche at 2.75%. Closing is expected around April 10, with the notes to...
The Guardian View on Japan’s Hidden Century: Cheap Money, Global Risk | Editorial
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose policy has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, fueling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but the...
3%
A history lesson on spreads and how rare 3% spreads have been in recent history. We never had 3% + spreads during the GFC or Covid We did in 2023, as the Fed was still hiking rates & the SVB crisis was...
Wall Street Launches 24/7 Tokenized Trading for Trillions
Wall Street Braces for 24/7 Trading via Tokenization DTCC intends to tokenize entire $100 trillion asset catalog, beginning with U.S. Treasuries later this year. NYSE Digital Trading Platform (announced Jan 2026): 24/7 onchain trading + settlement of U.S. equities/ETFs, instant settlement,...
Chinese Bonds Near Inflection Point as Inflation Path Shifts
Chinese government bond yields are edging up from record lows as deflationary pressure eases. The benchmark 10‑year yield, currently around 1.8%, could climb toward or beyond 2% this year. Simultaneously, the spread between five‑year and 30‑year notes has widened to...
Credit Spreads Stay Under Historic Peak at 2.11%
Even with the LTCM drama of the late 1990's, spreads never got above 2.40%, we are at 2.11% today https://t.co/yTyr072f92
CLO Equity Fund Discounted yet Still Offers 24% Yield
OXLC cut its distribution 50%. The price crashed 60%. And the yield is STILL 24%. Here's the catch — and why this CLO equity fund trading at a 16% discount might actually be interesting for the first time in years: https://t.co/oLGHvO4MvQ
A 5-Year TIPS Is Maturing April 15. How Did It Do as an Investment?
A five‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Security (TIPS) that matured on April 15 delivered a modest real return, lagging behind comparable Series I Savings Bonds. The bond’s real yield had been negative for much of its life, eroding its inflation‑hedge advantage. Despite...
Static Bond Portfolios? JOJO Offers Dynamic Yield Rotation
Financial advisors: your clients' bond portfolios are probably static. Same exposure in every environment. $JOJO rotates between high yield and Treasuries. That's differentiation. https://t.co/9yp8ZpcIhr
Bond Market Warns: No Rate Cuts, Equity Rally Fading
The bond market is telling you what equities refuse to accept. Rate cuts aren't coming. This rally is just a bounce before the binary. https://t.co/Mh5FYZAawT
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Wealth Managers Brace for Limited Policy Shifts
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% and its dot plot now shows just one cut before the end of 2026. The decision, announced after the March 18 meeting, signals a stable monetary backdrop for wealth...
Global Debt, Not Oil, Fuels True Complacency
I keep hearing the word complacency regarding oil prices. Maybe. But the real complacency is in global debt markets. We have an inflationary shock and fiscal policy that - especially in Europe and Japan - is out of control. This...
Forward Yield Spike Signals Looming Global Debt Crisis
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...
Iran War Pushes Mortgage Rates to 6.46%, Raising Home‑Buying Costs
Mortgage rates jumped to 6.46% this week, the highest level in nearly seven months, as the Iran war fuels energy price spikes and inflation worries. The rise threatens to slow spring home‑buying activity even as inventory gains give buyers more...
RBI Expected to Hold Repo Rate at 5.25% as West Asia Conflict Fuels Inflation Risks
SBI Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India will leave its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% during the April 6‑8 MPC meeting. The outlook reflects heightened uncertainty from the West Asia war, soaring oil prices and rising imported inflation...
Inflation or Recession? The Tug of War in Bond Markets
The yield on the benchmark ten‑year U.S. Treasury bond has swung dramatically, dipping below 4% on Feb. 27, spiking above 4.4% by March 27, and then retreating again. The rapid movement reflects heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, notably the American‑Israeli war...
Iran-Israel Clash Spikes Oil to $112, Pushes 10‑yr Treasury Yield to 4.30%
The Iran‑Israel conflict sent crude above $110 a barrel, prompting the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield to slip to 4.30% from 4.32% as investors reassessed inflation and growth risks. The move sparked a broader sell‑off in sovereign and corporate bonds worldwide.
Inflation Ties Stocks and Bonds, Boosting Bond Yields
Inflationary regime... stocks & bonds moving together JPMAM While that means less diversification, it also means higher bond yields vs the 2010s.. when bonds zigged when stocks zagged... it's a trade-off. https://t.co/VNDHInIcmI
EVN: Investment Grade Muni Bonds, Federally Tax Free
Eaton Vance Municipal Income Trust (EVN) earned a buy rating for investors seeking federally tax‑free income, delivering a 5.9% annual yield paid monthly. For taxpayers in the 30%+ bracket this equates to an 8‑9% taxable‑equivalent return. The fund’s portfolio is...
SIFMA Urges 12‑pm to 4‑pm NY Window for Dollar Bonds as Futures Dip Ahead of Payrolls
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) told dealers to confine dollar‑denominated bond trades to the 12 pm‑4 pm New York window, citing thin liquidity ahead of the March payrolls release. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.2‑0.3%, while the 10‑year...
Iran War Accelerates Chinese US Treasure Bill Sell Off
China has accelerated the sale of its U.S. Treasury bill holdings, dropping from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn—a $50 bn decline in four months and the lowest level since 2008. The sell‑off follows a pattern of larger drawdowns during the...
30‑Year Mortgage Rate Hits 6.46%, Tied to Rising 10‑Year Treasury Yields
Freddie Mac said the benchmark 30‑year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.46% from 6.38% last week, its highest level since early September. The rise mirrors a lift in the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.3%, underscoring tighter credit conditions for homebuyers...
Neo‑con Trump Policies Spark Inflation, Hurt Bonds
While the combination of tariffs and spending cuts in 2025 proved net disinflationary (benefiting USD bond markets), the current dramatic neo-con shift under the Trump administration is the exact opposite - inflationary and negative for bonds
MBS: Mortgages Are Attractive After The Sell-Off
The Angel Oak Mortgage‑Backed Securities ETF (ticker MBS) has emerged as a standout pure‑play vehicle for residential mortgage credit. Early April 2026 sees the fund navigating heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions, notably the Iran conflict, have nudged Treasury yields up...
How Emerging Markets Borrow: New Evidence on Sovereign Bond Issuance
The authors analyze 75,000 sovereign bond auctions from 20 emerging‑market economies (2000‑2023) to uncover how timing decisions differ by currency. Local‑currency issuances closely track refinancing needs, while foreign‑currency issuances are driven by global financial conditions, investor sentiment, and terms‑of‑trade shocks....
The Gulf’s Banks Get Ready for Recession
The episode examines the resilience of the sub‑sovereign and supranational bond market amid Middle‑East tensions, highlighting strong issuance and investor demand for AAA‑rated public‑sector bonds despite rising yields. Hosts discuss recent deals across Europe and New Zealand, noting that issuers...
Liquidity Pressures Rise in Thai Bond Market
Thailand’s corporate bond market faces a liquidity crunch as roughly $18.5 billion in bonds will mature over the next three quarters, according to the Thai Bond Market Association. While investment‑grade issues dominate, about $1.4 billion of lower‑rated and unrated debt is especially...
Morningstar DBRS Assigns Credit Rating of A (Low) With a Stable Trend to CoreWeave Compute Acquisition Co. VIII, LLC
Morningstar DBRS assigned an A (low) issuer rating and a matching A (low) rating to CoreWeave Compute Acquisition Co. VIII’s $8.5 billion senior secured delayed draw term loan facility, with a stable trend. The loan finances the acquisition, installation, and operation...
CoreWeave Secures $8.5 B GPU‑Backed Term Loan, First Investment‑Grade Deal for AI Data Centers
CoreWeave, Inc. closed an $8.5 billion delayed‑draw term loan facility (DDTL 4.0), rated A3 by Moody’s, allowing the company to draw up to $7.5 billion now and expand to $8.5 billion as its GPU assets mature. The financing, priced at SOFR + 2.25% (about 5.9% fixed),...
Shift to US Treasuries as Gold Peaks
I'm not supposed to give investment advice, but compliance has never said I can't suggest overweighting US Treasuries :) Tinderbox Seeking a Spark: US Treasuries vs. Gold A basic factor may be all that's needed to spur some reversion from the...
Texas Public Schools Carry $148.3 Billion Bond Debt, Spotlighting Municipal Financing Strain
Texas public schools are shouldering $148.3 billion in outstanding bond debt and an additional $88.3 billion in accrued interest, the largest municipal exposure of any U.S. state. The debt surge stems from a property‑tax‑driven financing model that forces districts to borrow for...
US Bonds Fall as Strong Jobs Data Undermines Fed Cut Outlook
U.S. Treasury prices slipped after March employment numbers outperformed expectations, pushing yields up three to four basis points across the curve. The robust jobs report reinforced the view that the labor market is stabilizing, prompting traders to discard bets on...
How the Iran War Is Fuelling Wild Swings in Interest-Rate Bets
The Iran war has injected fresh uncertainty into global inflation and growth forecasts, prompting dramatic swings in interest‑rate swap markets across the US, UK and Europe. Traders have shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing multiple hikes within minutes,...
RBI's Benchmark Issuance Strategy to Boost Transparency, Liquidity in SDL Market: Experts
The Reserve Bank of India will pilot a Benchmark Issuance Strategy (BIS) for select states starting FY27. Under the scheme, states will issue State Development Loans in fixed tenor buckets—5, 10 and 15 years—according to a pre‑announced borrowing calendar, creating...
ADB Issuing Its First Parametric Catastrophe Bonds, for Kyrgyz Republic & Tajikistan
Asian Development Bank is issuing its inaugural catastrophe bonds, offering two separate $75 million notes to the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. Each bond provides multi‑year parametric coverage for earthquake and extreme precipitation events, with $65 million earmarked for earthquakes and $10 million for...
Bond Volatility Drives Global Cross‑asset Market Turbulence
If the PPT wants/needs to manipulate the US Equity Futures, that's fine - we know how that ends (gravity always wins) The real problem is Bond Market Vol and there's no change to that TRENDING Breakout Pretty much every position, everywhere,...
Yield to Maturity Drives 5‑Year Returns, 89% R²
Fixed income: The YTM matters greatly.. 89% r-squared in terms of determining your 5-year return JPMAM https://t.co/b6f4gSRgeA
Secured Debt at Distressed Spreads with Billions in Liquidity Behind It
A holding company with billions of dollars in cash and asset value has issued a secured bond that is trading at distressed spreads, more than 600 basis points over Treasuries. Despite the wide spread, every bond maturing since 2023 has...
Spreads Peak Months After Recession Starts, Not Before
History says spreads peak 5-7 months after recessions start. Not before. By the time the NBER calls it, the move is done. $JOJO uses leading signals, not lagging labels. https://t.co/aEqM5MShko
Chinese Government Bonds Stand Out as War Safe Haven
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven. More on this in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/jQYKfLr6kx
NDB Pushes Yuan‑denominated Financing, Sells $3.6 Bn in Panda Bonds to Boost Global South Projects
The New Development Bank (NDB) announced a push for yuan‑denominated funding, having sold 25 billion yuan ($3.6 bn) in panda bonds last year – its biggest issuance since 2016. The move aims to give Global South projects cheaper, locally‑hedged capital and to...
US Iran Strike Sparks Red Market, Treasuries Bleed
March 2, 2025. The market opens to a sea of red following news of a U.S. attack on the Iranian regime. Treasuries bleed in anticipation of inflationary supply shocks. Trend-following strategies are in disarray. What's up with carry? by @jordonezjr https://t.co/oeugyTwcEN https://t.co/2Oq7Njel14
Surprise US Payrolls Lift Yields, Hit Emerging Markets
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
Rates Spark: Markets Don't See A Solution Yet
Markets remain unsettled as President Donald Trump's rhetoric fails to provide a clear policy path, keeping oil prices elevated and risk aversion high heading into a long weekend. In the UK, investors now price roughly 50 basis points of Bank...
U.S. Debt Interest Costs Surge Past $1 Trillion by 2026
U.S. net interest payments on the federal debt (in billions of dollars) by fiscal year: 2020: $345 2021: $352 2022: $475 2023: $659 2024: $882 2025: $970 2026: $1,000B (projected to exceed $1 trillion) Got hard assets?
Foreign Central Banks Boost Fed Holdings by $3.3 Bn
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Bond Vigilantes Reprice Yields as Oil Shocks Drive Inflation Outlook
Bond Vigilantes are repricing yield curves worldwide as oil shocks reshape inflation expectations. Global spreads reveal where markets see the biggest shifts ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/ntInn7MIg4