U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for February 6, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the board for the week ending February 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate fell 0.02 percentage points, while the 10‑year yield dropped 0.04 points to 4.22 %. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.57 %, reflecting a modest broad‑based decline. These moves keep short‑ and long‑term borrowing costs marginally lower than the prior week.
AM Resilience After Overnight Weakness
Overnight Treasury markets experienced a sharp, high‑volume move despite a relatively narrow price range. The volatility was triggered by news that Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. Domestic traders quickly digested the information, and by...
Private Credit Defaults
The episode dissects private‑credit defaults, arguing that most defaults are driven by borrower‑specific (idiosyncratic) factors rather than systemic risk, which the media often exaggerates for clicks. Data from the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index shows realized losses remain well below historic...
Repriced Risk in a Rebuilt Regional Bank Subordinated Floater
The episode examines a regional bank that has rebuilt its balance sheet, achieving profitability, capital ratios above 12%, and improved liquidity after addressing over $12 billion of higher‑risk loans. It highlights that despite these fundamentals, the bank’s subordinated floating‑rate notes are...
Gradual End of Bank Dominance in India
India’s household financial portfolio is shifting away from traditional safe assets toward equities and managed funds. Between March 2021 and March 2025, bank deposits fell from roughly 47.5% to 43.5% of total financial assets, while mutual‑fund and pension holdings rose...
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
MBS outperformed Treasuries on Feb 6, rising two ticks while 5‑ and 10‑year yields fell about six ticks. The move suggests possible GSE buying despite no official data. Consumer sentiment posted 57.3, beating forecasts, and inflation expectations eased to 3.5% for...
Waiting on Next Week's Data
Friday's economic calendar was thin, with only the Consumer Sentiment report standing out. Treasury yields edged slightly higher but stayed near the 4.20% threshold, keeping bond markets largely unchanged. The previous day's disappointing labor figures have heightened market attention on...
The Liquidity Tide Is Turning: Warning for Risk Assets
The episode explains how a shift in global liquidity, driven by the Federal Reserve’s move toward quantitative tightening, is ending the era of easy money and causing risk assets like Bitcoin and high‑growth tech stocks to falter. It highlights the...
Stronger Start Thanks to Employment Data
U.S. Treasury bonds edged higher in early trading on Thursday, with gains accelerating after 7 a.m. ET. The market reacted to two labor‑market releases: the Challenger job‑cut data at 7:30 a.m. and the more impactful weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the latter...
The BlackRock TCPC Story
The episode dissects BlackRock TCPC’s recent 19% NAV drop, revealing that the loss was driven by six concentrated positions heavily weighted in second‑lien loans and equity rather than first‑lien senior debt. The host contrasts this risky capital‑structure positioning and volatile...
Waiting on ISM Services as Early Data Fails to Inspire
ADP's employment numbers released at 8:15 a.m. ET came in softer than analysts expected, yet Treasury yields barely moved. Fifteen minutes later, the Treasury Department posted its quarterly financing estimates, which were in line with prior forecasts but warned that borrowing...
The Hidden Cost Of Investment Income
The episode explores a new Longview Research Partners analysis that challenges the traditional view of bond interest and REIT dividends as portfolio positives, showing that forced investment income can erode over 1% of after‑tax wealth for high‑net‑worth investors. The hosts...
Scarce Reserves
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Warsh is pushing to restart quantitative tightening, signaling a shift toward shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet. This move comes even as the Fed recently expanded its holdings to ease strains in the funding market. Warsh’s...
Understanding Peer Momentum
The episode explores "peer momentum," the idea that a stock’s future returns can be better predicted by the recent performance of its connected firms—not just its own past returns. Research shows that using industry‑level peer momentum yields annualized return spreads...
Modern Fed Chair
Asset‑management veteran Christopher Reider has surged to the front of the Federal Reserve chair race, positioning himself as the most suitable candidate for a fiscal‑dominant environment. Reider, a political outsider with no evident Trump connections, argues for lowering the policy...
Deleveraging Operator Offers Compelling Yield
The episode examines a high‑yield note offering over 8.5% that is backed by a company aggressively reducing its debt, positioning it for a potential rating upgrade within the next two years. It highlights how the current spread reflects genuine compensation...
High-Quality Real Estate Credit with More than Investment-Grade Spread
The episode examines a senior housing REIT whose current spread over the BBB index undervalues its credit quality, citing a strong net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio, ample liquidity, and improving rent coverage. It argues that the market misreads the issuer as...
Stale Data Watch: Construction Spending for October — More “Green Shoots”?
Construction spending for October rose modestly, with total nominal spending up 0.5% and residential construction up 1.3%. After adjusting for a 0.2% decline in material prices, real overall spending increased 0.7% and residential spending 1.5%, pushing both series close to...
How Your Brain’s “Break-Even” Bias Creates Mispricings
In this episode, Larry Swedroe discusses a new study by Jihoon Goh, Suk‑Joon Byun, and Donghoon Kim that uncovers how the “salience effect”—investors’ attraction to stocks with dramatic past moves—interacts with the “break‑even bias,” a tendency to take riskier bets...
Practical Monetarism
The President is expected to announce his Fed Chairman pick this week, with former governor Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading contender. Warsh, a noted hawk, aligns his policy outlook with Treasury Secretary Bessent. He is best known for a...
Weekly Indicators for January 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha’s weekly indicators for Jan 12‑16 highlight a normalizing yield curve and mortgage rates at three‑year lows, which are reviving the housing market. At the same time, gasoline prices have slipped to their lowest level in almost five years, creating...
Industrial Production Sets New Post-Pandemic High in December - but Mainly Due to Utilities
Industrial production reached a new post‑pandemic high in December, climbing 0.4% after revisions added another 0.2% to prior months. The modest 0.2% rise in manufacturing was dwarfed by a 2.6% jump in utility output, which also posted a 2.3% year‑over‑year...
Subscriber Update on Block Inc. 2032s
The episode breaks down Block, Inc.'s latest credit outlook, highlighting a dramatic shift from a shaky to a durable balance sheet and a clear path to achieving the Rule of 40 by 2026. Q3 2025 results show 18% YoY gross...
The Dollar Consolidates While Japan Steps Up Its Intervention Threats and Decision Day for the SCOTUS
The U.S. dollar is in a consolidating phase, hovering around JPY158.6 after a brief push toward JPY159.5, as Japanese authorities intensify verbal warnings of possible market intervention. In North America, traders await U.S. PPI, retail sales data and comments from...
Refinancing Into Deterioration
The episode dissects Molson Coors' looming $2.4 billion refinancing challenge amid a sharp operational downturn, highlighted by an 11.9% drop in pretax income, a $3.6 billion goodwill impairment, and rising net leverage to 2.28x. Volume shrinkage—especially in the economy and flavored‑alcohol segments—combined...
Sleeping Giants
The administration is signaling a willingness to enlist government‑sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in its effort to push mortgage rates lower. After the 2008 crisis, the GSEs’ mortgage holdings shrank dramatically, but policymakers see an...