Dollar Mixed, Equities Down, Bond Yields Higher, and Mood Remains Fearful
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four major U.S. equity indices opened in the red. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East kept oil prices in the mid‑$90s and heightened market fear, even as the People’s Bank of China left rates unchanged and Russia cut its benchmark to 15%. Europe reported a robust January current‑account surplus, underscoring divergent regional dynamics.
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
10-Year TIPS Reopening Gets Real Yield of 1.896%
The Treasury announced a reopening of the 10‑year TIPS auction, delivering a real yield of 1.896%. The yield jumped noticeably, signaling heightened market sensitivity ahead of the weekend. Investors appeared reluctant to hold positions, prompting some traders to sit out...
Standard Bank Co-Arranges Bayport Mozambique’s Award-Winning Bond
Bayport Financial Services Mozambique issued a MZN 600 million dual‑tranche bond in October 2025, earning the Best Local Currency Bond – Financial Institutions award from Global Banking & Markets. Standard Bank acted as co‑arranger and bookrunner, guiding the structure and securing regulatory approvals....
Safe Until Crisis: What 300 Years of Wars Reveal About Government Debt Safety
A new VoxEU column by Jiang, Lustig, Van Nieuwerburgh and Xiaolan examines three centuries of U.S. and U.K. war and pandemic episodes. Their analysis shows that sovereign bonds, traditionally viewed as safe havens, have repeatedly suffered large real‑term losses during...
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
ADG 3/18: Lost Horizon
Crypto exchange Kraken has put its planned IPO on hold, citing weak market conditions, after dismissing its CFO earlier this year. Meanwhile, a consortium of banks led by JPMorgan launched an $18 billion debt package to finance Electronic Arts’ $55 billion leveraged...
AN IMPOSSIBLE FOMC MEETING
The Federal Open Market Committee convened an atypical session this week, delivering a surprise 25‑basis‑point rate increase despite a modest dip in headline inflation. The decision broke with the consensus of many analysts who had expected a pause, reflecting the...
A Preferred Technology Infrastructure Bond
A senior unsecured note issued by a globally recognized technology infrastructure firm, rated BBB, is highlighted for its strong free cash flow and a nine‑figure order backlog that secures revenue for upcoming quarters. The bond currently trades at a spread...
Fed Should Hold Rates Steady In March
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep its target federal funds rate at 3.5‑3.75% during the March 17‑18 meeting. AIER’s Monetary Rules Report shows that several rule‑based frameworks, including the Taylor rule and nominal‑GDP rules, imply a rate...
Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Foreign Demand
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $13 bn of 20‑year notes at a 4.817% yield, stopping 0.7 bps through the issue price. Bid‑to‑cover climbed to 2.76, outpacing the six‑auction average. Foreign indirect demand surged to 69.2%, the highest since April 2025, while direct bidder participation...
IT'S FINALLY TIME TO LEAN INTO CORPORATE CREDIT
Kevin Muir, known as “the macro tourist,” announced a sizable short position against corporate credit spreads, buying distressed pink‑ticket bonds as a hedge. He argues that rising interest rates, slowing global growth, and tightening credit conditions will force high‑yield spreads...
Chaos of War Bolsters 10-Year Real Yield Heading Into This Week’s Auction
War‑driven uncertainty in Europe and the Middle East has pushed the 10‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) real yield to its highest level in a decade, setting the stage for this week’s Treasury auction. The surge reflects heightened inflation expectations and...
The Market Is Punishing the Equity. The Bond Is Along for the Ride. That Is the Opportunity.
An A+ rated corporate bond is trading 50 basis points wider than its credit rating suggests, reflecting a rare disconnect between market perception and fundamentals. The issuer’s balance sheet shows liquid assets exceeding total debt, and fee‑related earnings cover interest...
Weekly: War Comes To The US Front-End
U.S. Treasury markets experienced a sharp front‑end rally this week, with two‑year yields climbing roughly 20 basis points while ten‑year yields added about 12 basis points. The differential move produced a bear‑flattened curve, indicating heightened short‑term rate pressure. Market participants...
How to Use Pre-Trade Data to Better Target Automation on Rule Builder
Bloomberg’s Rule Builder (RBLD) lets buy‑side firms convert high‑quality pre‑trade data into automated routing and alerting rules for fixed‑income orders. The tool ingests pricing, axes, dealer performance and other signals to prioritize dealers and reduce market impact. A Bloomberg study...
The Closer – Big Bond Sale, BDC, Housing – 3/10/26
Amazon became the latest investment‑grade borrower to tap the bond market, issuing a tranche that ranks as the fourth‑largest IG bond sale ever to fund its data‑center expansion. The deal adds several billion dollars of capital at a competitive yield,...
Transcript: Ed Perks, Franklin Income Investors CIO / Franklin Advisers President
Ed Perks, a 40‑year veteran of Franklin Templeton, serves as CIO of Franklin Income Investors and president of its advisory arm. He credits early cross‑asset roles—from equity research to convertible securities—in shaping a disciplined, risk‑focused income philosophy. Perks emphasizes evaluating...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 6, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the board for the week ending March 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate rose 0.13 percentage points, while the 10‑year advanced 0.18 points to 4.15 %. The 3‑year note settled at 3.59 %, reflecting broader upward pressure on government debt yields....
Market Expectations of Inflation
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
Volatile Crosscurrents Keep Mortgage Rates Relatively Flat
Mortgage rates remained relatively flat this week despite opposing forces in the bond market. A sharp surge in oil prices initially pushed rates higher by stoking inflation concerns, but a surprisingly weak jobs report later that day pulled yields down....
Three Kinds of Fed-Treasury Accords
Peter Conti‑Brown outlines three separate Fed‑Treasury accords: one freeing the Treasury from setting monetary policy, a second keeping the Fed out of partisan politics, and a third enhancing collaboration on public‑debt management. He traces the historic 1951 Accord that granted...
Nordic CTAs Thrive in February’s Volatile Macro Landscape
February was a strong month for Nordic CTA managers, making CTAs the top‑performing sub‑strategy in the Nordic Hedge Index. Gains were anchored by fixed‑income and soft‑commodity profits, with all trend‑following managers posting positive returns. Several non‑trend managers also delivered gains,...
Investor Skepticism Creates Opportunity
An asset manager’s bonds are priced 50‑75 basis points wider than those of its major peers. Rating agencies signal potential upgrades, while the bond market doubts the firm’s credit health. The company’s fourth‑quarter results revealed record fundraising, growing margins, and...
Core, Satellite, and Structural Premiums: PensionDanmark’s Approach to Emerging Market Debt
PensionDanmark has shifted the bulk of its emerging market debt portfolio from external managers to an internal team, now overseeing most hard‑currency and local‑currency sovereign exposure. The fund employs a core‑satellite framework, using the internal core for broad beta and...
NEW POD! How Credit Markets Shaped a Nation with Sarah Quinn
In the latest Net Interest Extra episode, sociologist Sarah Quinn discusses her book *American Bonds*, which argues that credit markets have been a foundational force in shaping the United States. Quinn traces how borrowing practices influenced industrial growth, urbanization, and...
The Dollar Is the Only Game in Town
The U.S. dollar is strengthening across major G10 pairs as the Middle East conflict fuels risk aversion, pushing the euro, yen, and sterling lower. Emerging market currencies such as the peso, yuan and real also slide, while equity markets suffer...
Avoiding the Echo Chamber: Kraft’s Playbook in Tighter High-Yield Market
Kraft Fondene’s high‑yield funds posted double‑digit returns in 2025 despite a market shift toward tighter spreads and lower dispersion. Leveraging a strong 2024 portfolio, the team rotated out of over‑compressed positions such as Heimstaden Bostad and reduced exposure to subordinated...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for February 27, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the curve for the week ending February 27, 2026. The 30‑year note fell 0.08 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield dropped 0.11 points to 3.97%. The 3‑year Treasury rate held at 3.39%, indicating modest...
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, prompting the dollar index to climb and Treasury 10‑year yields to rise about nine basis points. Higher yields reflect tighter monetary expectations, while the 10‑year TIPS also edged up six...
Mortgage Rates Jump After Iran Attack
Mortgage rates slipped back above the 6% threshold after the Iran attack, with the 30‑year fixed climbing to 6.12%—a 13‑basis‑point jump. Ten‑year Treasury yields rose nine basis points, and mortgage‑backed‑security prices fell, feeding the rate increase. Simultaneously, oil prices spiked...
Fast Growth, Controlled Debt, Still Paying You to Wait
T‑Mobile delivered an 8% jump in 2025 service revenue to $71.3 billion, while core adjusted EBITDA rose 7% to $33.9 billion and free cash flow hit $18.0 billion. The carrier added 3.3 million post‑paid phones and 7.8 million total post‑paid lines, keeping churn under 1%...
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation...
New to Building a CD or Bond Ladder?
The author finally built a CD ladder using Fidelity’s automated tool, opting for brokered certificates of deposit to achieve safety and flexibility. By allocating $100,000 into five $20,000 CDs spanning one‑ to five‑year maturities, the ladder can roll over automatically...
Two Tribes
The article reflects on the historic reversal of power between bond and equity traders, noting how equities eclipsed fixed‑income revenue after the 1994 bond market collapse. It highlights the cultural divide that still separates the two desks, with bond traders...
Guest Contribution: “Understanding Bond-Stock Price Comovements”
The article examines how Treasury bond returns move together with U.S. stock returns, showing that comovement has shifted from positive in the 1980s to negative in the 2000s and back to positive after 2022. Using rolling 90‑day regressions on daily...
Bloomberg Pro Tips: Fast-Forward Your Credit Research with CRAN
Bloomberg’s latest Pro Tips episode demonstrates how analysts can accelerate issuer credit research using CRAN, the Credit Research Analysis tool on the Bloomberg Terminal. The tutorial walks users through data retrieval, rating analysis, and key financial metrics in minutes. Bloomberg...
YYY: The Income Illusion or the Ultimate Credit Barometer?
The episode dissects YYY, an ETF that offers exposure to a rules‑based basket of high‑income closed‑end funds (CEFs) via a fund‑of‑funds structure. It highlights the layered risks of credit exposure, embedded leverage, and premium/discount dynamics, noting that performance is highly...
30-Year TIPS Auction Gets Real Yield of 2.473%, Second Highest in 16 Years
The U.S. Treasury’s latest 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) auction posted a real yield of 2.473%, the second‑highest level in the past 16 years and the highest since the series was relaunched in February 2010. Demand was strong, with the...
Veritas Looks Beyond Benchmarks to Frontier Markets for Carry
Veritas, the Finnish pension insurer, is moving past traditional credit benchmarks to chase carry in frontier‑market local‑currency bonds. Portfolio manager Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi argues that corporate spreads in developed markets are near historic lows, making high‑yield bonds unattractive due to equity‑like...
An Update to the Update of One of My Favorite Energy Credits
The episode revisits the author’s earlier research reports from October and December 2025 on a leading natural‑gas utility, reaffirming its investment thesis built on ultra‑low leverage, a management team focused on debt reduction, high‑quality assets, and accelerating free cash flow....
Nordea’s Active Rates Strategy Tops €1 Billion
Nordea’s Active Rates Opportunities Fund has broken the €1 billion AUM threshold, underscoring strong investor appetite for low‑risk, active‑duration fixed‑income solutions. Since its 2019 launch, the fund has delivered more than 2 % per annum in net returns above cash, even as...
Fixed Income Disaster: Will Investors Ever Forget?
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
Fed Minutes Suggest Willingness To Hike If Inflation Not Tamed
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring...
Heads Up: US Treasury to Release TIC Data Later Today
The US Treasury will publish its latest International Capital (TIC) data, showing foreign investors holding a record $9.36 trillion of Treasury securities. China’s holdings slipped to roughly $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008, while Japan remains the top holder with about...
Climate-Focused Credit Specialist Returns to AP4
Ulf Erlandsson is returning to Sweden’s Fourth National Pension Fund (AP4) as Senior Fixed Income Portfolio Manager for liquid credit, after nearly a decade on the hedge‑fund side. He founded the Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute, a climate‑focused research nonprofit, and...
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
U.S. Treasury yields opened modestly weaker on Tuesday after a volatile three‑day‑weekend, but steadied by mid‑morning. The 10‑year note rose to 4.06% before trading flat through the close, marking a calm finish despite earlier upside pressure. No fresh economic releases...
Mostly Holding Last Week's Impressive Gains
U.S. Treasury bonds extended last week’s rally by a few basis points in early domestic trading, though the advance faded later in the session. Market participants attribute part of the prior week’s rise to defensive positioning ahead of a three‑day...
Getting Paid to Wait for Deleveraging
The episode examines a REIT's high‑yield bond, which trades above 7% with a 340‑basis‑point spread despite solid market fundamentals and improving leasing. Management is actively selling $280‑300 million of assets, using proceeds to cut debt and potentially buy back bonds, positioning...