Secured Debt at Distressed Spreads with Billions in Liquidity Behind It
A holding company with billions of dollars in cash and asset value has issued a secured bond that is trading at distressed spreads, more than 600 basis points over Treasuries. Despite the wide spread, every bond maturing since 2023 has been retired at par and management has called bonds on schedule. The market appears to be over‑estimating default risk due to headline complexity rather than fundamentals. The brief argues that the current yield more than compensates for the genuine credit risk for disciplined investors.
Interview with GoldRepublic
Alasdair Macleod warns that the escalating conflict with Iran could ignite the endgame of the global fiat currency system, linking energy disruption to soaring bond yields, collapsing credit and a broader monetary crisis. He argues that bond markets now provide...
Could Fed Liquidity Plunge By Half?
The Federal Reserve has outlined a plan to shrink its balance sheet by roughly $1.7 trillion, effectively halving the liquidity it provides to markets. The proposal assumes a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed, as well as...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Vigilantes Are Mobilizing Globally
A wave of bond‑vigilante activity is reshaping yield curves globally after the Middle‑East war triggered an unprecedented oil‑supply shock. Investors are aggressively repricing short‑term rates, with the U.S. front end appearing especially oversold. Dr. Ed and contributing editor Elias Griepentrog...
A High-Conviction Short-Duration Income Trade (CFO Told Us the Answer)
Fixed Income Beacon highlights a preferred‑stock issue from a well‑capitalized regional bank holding company as a high‑conviction, short‑duration income trade. The bank’s deposit quality has improved dramatically, with wholesale funding cut nearly in half and non‑interest‑bearing demand deposits now exceeding...
The Macro Butler IG Portfolio (March 2026)
The Macro Butler IG Portfolio released its March 2026 performance snapshot, inviting investors to view detailed results via a subscription‑only factsheet and trade alerts. The newsletter also promotes the upcoming Macro Butler World Economic Summit 2026 and a partnership with XHK Asia,...
ADG 3/31: Interval Training
U.S. banks are tightening credit for private‑credit vehicles as borrowing costs for business development companies have risen to roughly 2% above the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, squeezing fund managers' interest income. At the same time, redemption pressure on non‑public BDCs...
March 2026 PFF Rebalance
The Fixed Income Beacon predicts that the iShares Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) will act as a 4‑to‑5‑times net seller in March 2026, indicating strong selling pressure across most of its holdings. While the fund is shedding positions, it will also...
TED Talk
The article revisits the TED spread— the gap between LIBOR and U.S. Treasury bills—as a historic gauge of inter‑bank trust that foreshadowed the 2007 financial crisis. It argues that today’s equivalent warning signal is the crack spread, particularly the jet‑fuel...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 27, 2026
Long‑term U.S. Treasury yields rose during the week ending March 27, 2026. The 30‑year note gained 0.02 percentage points, while the benchmark 10‑year yield climbed 0.05 points to 4.44 percent. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.94 percent. The modest increases reflect ongoing market expectations of...
ADG 3/30: Stop and Shop
The JPMorgan‑led syndicate is trying to sell a $7.2 billion speculative‑grade bond package that finances Clayton, Dubilier & Rice’s leveraged buyout of Sealed Air. Investor demand has stalled at about $5 billion, forcing banks to raise coupons to 8.25‑8.5 % and price the...
$JOJO: CE-Credit Webinar on Credit Regimes and Allocation Discipline
The CE‑Credit approved webinar on March 31, 2026, will dissect credit market regimes and their impact on allocation discipline. Hosted by Michael A. Gayed, CFA, the session outlines how spread phases create distinct risk environments and why static exposure can...
Are Government Bonds Really Safe?
Three centuries of UK and US government bond data reveal that bonds are safe in recessions but vulnerable during wars, pandemics and geopolitical shocks. Recent events have pushed 10‑year UK gilt yields to 5.07%, the highest since 2008, and a...
VIX INVERSION, BUYING BONDS, JAPAN & THE JPM OPTION WHALE
Kevin Muir’s second "Catching up with Kev" column links a rare VIX inversion to a surge in bond buying, highlights Japan’s monetary tightening, and dissects JPMorgan’s massive options position that’s reshaping market dynamics. He notes that the VIX’s short‑term contract...
The Most Important Charts for the Next Few Weeks
The article highlights a sharp rise in US Treasury yields after an inflation shock tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 10‑year note closed at 4.44%, and analysts warn that a move toward 5% would confirm fears...
Lawler: Update on GSEs
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased agency MBS holdings by about $11.3 billion in February, the smallest rise since September 2025 and well below the $15.5 billion jump in January. The increase falls short of the White House’s January pledge for the...
GOF's 20% Yield Is Real. The 36% Premium You Used to Pay for It Is Gone.
Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund (GOF) now yields about 20.6% annualized, trading at $10.61 per share—a near‑zero discount to its $10.64 NAV. After five years of premiums that topped 36%, the premium has collapsed, offering investors a price‑aligned entry point. The...
Q1 Debt Markets Dodge Dire Straits
In the first quarter, Gulf region debt markets posted a flat to –1% performance, while equities managed a modest sub‑5% gain. The local equity index, previously buoyed by a decade‑high optimism, fell sharply after the dollar’s 10% decline against emerging‑market...
I Bond’s Fixed Rate Is Likely to Hold at 0.90% at May 1 Reset
U.S. Treasury I‑Bonds are expected to keep their fixed component at 0.90% when the next rate reset occurs on May 1, leaving the composite yield at 4.03% for the full six‑month period. The stable fixed rate preserves the bond’s attractive inflation‑adjusted...
Understanding the Bond in Finance: Meaning, Types, and How They Work
A bond is a debt instrument where investors lend money to governments, corporations, or municipalities in exchange for periodic interest payments and return of principal at maturity. The article explains core features such as face value, coupon rate, maturity, and...
Five Year US Treasury CDS
The five‑year U.S. Treasury credit default swap (CDS) curve has surged since late 2024, spiking amid heightened geopolitical tension and domestic policy scrutiny. The graph shows a sharp rise around July 2025, coinciding with the investigation into Fed Chair Jay Powell,...
The Wrap: Trump, Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The Iran war with the United States and Israel has triggered a sharp risk‑off shift, prompting private‑credit managers such as Ares and Apollo to cap redemptions as investor cash‑out requests surge. Direct‑lending defaults are projected to climb from 5.6% to...
Crane Bond Fund Symposium 2026: The Case for Fixed Income in Sustainable Investing
At the Crane Bond Fund Symposium 2026 in Boston, Henry Shilling argued that sustainable fixed‑income investing is vastly under‑represented, accounting for less than 1% of the $7.6 trillion taxable and municipal bond market. He highlighted the structural fit of bonds—explicit capital...
Trust the Dollar, Not the Treasury
Investors are demanding a higher risk premium on U.S. Treasuries, while confidence in the U.S. dollar remains largely intact. A recent study measuring convenience yields shows a sharp decline for short‑term and 10‑year Treasuries since 2024, but the dollar’s convenience...
Here Comes the Crash
Bond market volatility is accelerating, with the MOVE index climbing to 103.01 by mid‑2026. The surge coincides with a sharp rise in U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields, signaling heightened uncertainty in fixed‑income markets. Simultaneously, the equity‑focused VIX index mirrors this turbulence,...
Barclays: ECB Set to Hike as Energy Shock Hits Europe, Fed Likely to Stay on Hold
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
Baby Bond Target Updates
Throughout 2025, the research team issued a series of baby bond and preferred share target updates, adding new securities such as CIMP, AGNCZ, RITM‑E, NYMTH, TWOD, NYMTI, NYMTG, MITN, and MITP. The updates were released on June 11, July 9, September 30, and...
The Cycle
Canada’s 5‑year government bond yield surged from 2.6% to 3.2% within weeks, while the 30‑year benchmark climbed to 4%, reflecting heightened inflation fears tied to the Ukraine war, soaring energy costs and lingering tariff pressures. The yield jump has already...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 20, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third consecutive week, with the 30‑year rate up 0.06 percentage points and the 10‑year climbing 0.11 points to 4.39%. The 3‑year Treasury held steady at 3.90%. The upward movement reflects market expectations of sustained...
High Yield’s Allocation Dilemma in a Tight Spread Market
High‑yield bonds are trading at historically tight spreads, curbing any further price appreciation and leaving carry as the main source of return. Portfolio managers, like Veritas' Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi, warn that while the asset class still offers modest diversification, its downside...
$JOJO: CE-Credit Webinar on Credit Rotation — Why Static Bond Allocations May Be a Risk
The ATAC Credit Rotation ETF ($JOJO) challenges the common belief that bond exposure should stay static, proposing a dynamic credit‑rotation framework. Portfolio manager Michael Gayed will detail this approach in a CE‑credit approved webinar on March 24, covering credit‑vs‑duration risk, utilities...
Senegal Overstretch Saga Shadows Francophone Debt Diversion
The Iran‑related war in the Middle East has effectively halted new sovereign bond issuance in Francophone Sub‑Saharan Africa, leaving the region with only $6 billion of fresh issuance—half of last year’s pace. Credit spreads have surged to 375 basis points, and...
This 11% Yielder Powers AI’s Insatiable Appetite But The Leverage Makes You The Co-Pilot
The article spotlights Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corp. (TYG), an 11.69% yielding closed‑end fund positioned to profit from the AI‑driven surge in U.S. electricity demand. Macro data shows data‑center power needs could hit 74 GW by 2028, outpacing current capacity and prompting...
Russell Napier’s Warning: The Great Portfolio Reset
Russell Napier warns that investors face a "great portfolio reset" as bond markets lose appeal, U.S. equities become riskier, and financial repression intensifies. He argues that prolonged low‑interest rates will erode fixed‑income returns, prompting a shift toward real assets and...
Credit Crisis Imminent
The article warns of an imminent credit crisis as bond yields climb amid rising inflation expectations. It argues that expanding quantitative easing and war‑related spending will erode fiat currencies, prompting a historic wealth shift from creditors to debtors. Meanwhile, gold...
The Elephant In The Room
Global liquidity, which peaked in the fall, is now on a downward trajectory, pushing markets into a risk‑off stance. Iranian geopolitical tensions and volatile oil prices have amplified investor anxiety, but the liquidity slowdown was already evident. Despite aggressive central‑bank...
Operation ‘Rage Flip’
Operation ‘Rage Flip’ erupted in late March, exposing extreme price volatility as a chart‑driven rally flipped a steep decline into a rapid surge. Traders on the floor, including Stephen Walton, described the move as a herd‑culling event that overwhelmed typical...
Dollar Mixed, Equities Down, Bond Yields Higher, and Mood Remains Fearful
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
10-Year TIPS Reopening Gets Real Yield of 1.896%
The Treasury announced a reopening of the 10‑year TIPS auction, delivering a real yield of 1.896%. The yield jumped noticeably, signaling heightened market sensitivity ahead of the weekend. Investors appeared reluctant to hold positions, prompting some traders to sit out...
Standard Bank Co-Arranges Bayport Mozambique’s Award-Winning Bond
Bayport Financial Services Mozambique issued a MZN 600 million dual‑tranche bond in October 2025, earning the Best Local Currency Bond – Financial Institutions award from Global Banking & Markets. Standard Bank acted as co‑arranger and bookrunner, guiding the structure and securing regulatory approvals....
Safe Until Crisis: What 300 Years of Wars Reveal About Government Debt Safety
A new VoxEU column by Jiang, Lustig, Van Nieuwerburgh and Xiaolan examines three centuries of U.S. and U.K. war and pandemic episodes. Their analysis shows that sovereign bonds, traditionally viewed as safe havens, have repeatedly suffered large real‑term losses during...
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
ADG 3/18: Lost Horizon
Crypto exchange Kraken has put its planned IPO on hold, citing weak market conditions, after dismissing its CFO earlier this year. Meanwhile, a consortium of banks led by JPMorgan launched an $18 billion debt package to finance Electronic Arts’ $55 billion leveraged...
AN IMPOSSIBLE FOMC MEETING
The Federal Open Market Committee convened an atypical session this week, delivering a surprise 25‑basis‑point rate increase despite a modest dip in headline inflation. The decision broke with the consensus of many analysts who had expected a pause, reflecting the...
A Preferred Technology Infrastructure Bond
A senior unsecured note issued by a globally recognized technology infrastructure firm, rated BBB, is highlighted for its strong free cash flow and a nine‑figure order backlog that secures revenue for upcoming quarters. The bond currently trades at a spread...
Fed Should Hold Rates Steady In March
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep its target federal funds rate at 3.5‑3.75% during the March 17‑18 meeting. AIER’s Monetary Rules Report shows that several rule‑based frameworks, including the Taylor rule and nominal‑GDP rules, imply a rate...
Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Foreign Demand
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $13 bn of 20‑year notes at a 4.817% yield, stopping 0.7 bps through the issue price. Bid‑to‑cover climbed to 2.76, outpacing the six‑auction average. Foreign indirect demand surged to 69.2%, the highest since April 2025, while direct bidder participation...
IT'S FINALLY TIME TO LEAN INTO CORPORATE CREDIT
Kevin Muir, known as “the macro tourist,” announced a sizable short position against corporate credit spreads, buying distressed pink‑ticket bonds as a hedge. He argues that rising interest rates, slowing global growth, and tightening credit conditions will force high‑yield spreads...
Chaos of War Bolsters 10-Year Real Yield Heading Into This Week’s Auction
War‑driven uncertainty in Europe and the Middle East has pushed the 10‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) real yield to its highest level in a decade, setting the stage for this week’s Treasury auction. The surge reflects heightened inflation expectations and...