Guest Contribution: “Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? U.S. and OECD Evidence”
Academic Mufan Chen revisits the yield curve’s recession‑predictive power across the United States and seven OECD economies using monthly data from 1995‑2025. Probit models forecast recession risk 12 months ahead, comparing a spread‑only specification, one adding short‑term rates, and another incorporating the debt service ratio (DSR). The analysis finds the yield curve still contains useful information, but its signal weakened after the 2022 inversions, and adding the DSR improves forecast accuracy in five countries—including the U.S. and UK—while worsening it in France, Germany and Japan. Results are assessed with Brier scores, which show most models outperform a neutral 0.5 benchmark.
I Filled Out the Top End of My TIPS Ladder Last Week
An investor recently completed a Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) ladder that ends in October 2028, noting that current pricing reflects at least 3% inflation expectations. iShares has expanded the market with the launch of IBIM, a TIPS‑focused ETF that matures in 2036,...
Calm Spreads, a Re-Steepening Curve, and the Credit-Rotation Setup Most Investors Ignore (JOJO)
High‑yield credit spreads remain tightly compressed, with the ICE BofA US High Yield OAS at 2.78% and BB spreads at 1.70% as of early May 2026. The Treasury curve has re‑steepened, posting a +0.50% 10‑year‑minus‑2‑year spread, while inflation stays above...
Geopolitics, Inflation, and a Bond‑Market Surprise in Favor Of Junk
The VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF (HYEM) has risen 0.9% since the Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28, standing out as a rare positive performer among foreign‑currency bond funds. By contrast, U.S. and global investment‑grade bond ETFs remain...
State Action: AGs Warn Credit Rating Agencies on ESG-Related Fossil Fuel Company Downgrades
Twenty-three state attorneys general have sent a joint letter to Fitch, Moody’s and S&P Global demanding that the agencies stop using ESG criteria to downgrade fossil‑fuel companies and related state economies. The AGs allege the rating firms rely on undisclosed...
Deutsche Bank Flags Inconsistent Market Pricing as Iran Conflict Drags On
Deutsche Bank’s research note warns that markets are pricing the Iran conflict inconsistently across asset classes. Treasury yields have tracked oil prices, suggesting a prolonged inflationary shock, while equities have decoupled, treating the disruption as temporary. At the same time,...
The Market Is Paying You 7% to Lend to a Hundred-Year-Old Franchise. Value Worth Exploiting.
A century‑old franchise’s senior unsecured 2033 notes are yielding nearly 7% despite the company’s robust financial profile. The firm boasts over $8 billion in primary liquidity and less than $1.5 billion of debt maturing in the near term, while its top rating...
Bonds Trend Lower – Precious Metals Set Up – Uranium Forms Bullish Pattern
The provided TrendInvestorPro page is a subscriber‑only portal that offers systematic trading strategies, market‑timing models, and premium content on stocks, ETFs, and commodities. No actual market data or analysis on bonds, precious metals, or uranium is presented in the publicly...
The Asset Class Buffett Owns That You Probably Don't
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reported $339.3 billion in three‑month U.S. Treasury bills and $51.5 billion in cash, totaling $390.8 billion in liquid reserves as of March 31 2026. The short‑duration T‑bills earn about 3.69% annualized and are exempt from state taxes, outperforming most high‑yield savings accounts...
Alphabet Finances AI Expansion Again with Billion-Euro Bonds in Europe
Alphabet tapped the euro bond market in early May 2026, issuing a six‑tranche offering worth at least €3 billion (≈ $3.2 billion). This adds to roughly $32 billion of debt raised earlier in the year across dollar, pound and franc issues. The proceeds will...
Dalio Warns Investors About Mounting Debt Pressures
Ray Dalio told investors that mounting debt burdens, rising yields and widening fiscal deficits are reshaping the macro environment. He outlined five systemic forces—monetary, debt, political, social and geopolitical—that will drive market dynamics. While mega‑cap technology firms, especially AI players,...
THE 69-MONTH BOND MARKET CATASTROPHE: The Longest Drawdown in History, the 120% Debt to GDP Trap & Why Foreign Central...
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has entered a 69‑month drawdown, eclipsing the previous 16‑month record from 1980‑81. This decline coincides with a U.S. debt‑to‑GDP ratio of roughly 120%, forcing the Treasury to continuously issue new bonds. For the first...
RBA Delivers Third Consecutive Rate Hike
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its official cash rate by a quarter‑point to 4.35%, marking its third straight hike. Eight of nine board members voted in favor, citing renewed inflation pressure from late‑2025 capacity constraints and a worsening Middle‑East...
Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Monday as a wave of escalation headlines— Iran’s missile strike on a U.S. warship, UAE air‑defense alerts, and a fire at a UAE oil export terminal— pushed oil prices higher. The 10‑year Treasury rose from...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for May 1, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve in the week ending May 1, 2026. The benchmark 10‑year yield increased by 8 basis points to 4.39%, while the 30‑year climbed 6 basis points, hovering near 4.45%. The 3‑year rate held at 3.91%, reflecting...
ADG 5/4: Dissents and Sensibility
Prediction‑market contracts on Kalshi show traders assigning GameStop only a 26% chance of completing a cash‑and‑stock acquisition of eBay by 2026, despite the deal’s $55.5 billion valuation far exceeding GameStop’s roughly $11.9 billion market cap. Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee recorded...
The Cycle Is the Risk. The Balance Sheet Is the Answer.
Fixed Income Beacon’s May 1 brief spotlights a large homebuilder whose recent rating downgrade and soft earnings have rattled the market, yet its senior bond trades near par with a yield above 7%. The analysis reveals billions in tangible assets and...
Calendar Trade for Bonds
A calendar trade strategy applied to Treasury bond ETFs (TLT) generated a modest but consistent equity curve. Over 284 trades the approach delivered an average gain of 0.35% per trade, a 61% win ratio and a profit factor of 1.8....
Bond Armageddon Ahead
The article warns of a looming bond market crisis triggered by a new oil shock stemming from heightened U.S. tensions with Iran. Rising energy costs are expected to squeeze corporate margins, spark mass layoffs, and erode tax revenues, pushing already...
THE $1.3 TRILLION DEBT INTEREST BILL: The Debt Spiral, the Maturing $9 Trillion Debt Wall, the Budget Crowding Out &...
U.S. interest payments on the national debt surged to a record $1.3 trillion annually, making it the second‑largest federal budget item after Social Security. In the first half of FY 2025, interest expense rose 7% year‑over‑year to $623 billion, outpacing both defense and...
The Clock Is Running on Two of the Better Short-Duration Trades in the Market
Fixed Income Beacon highlights two short‑duration preferred stocks as attractive yield plays. One issue offers a >10% coupon and is callable in the near term, while a second provides roughly 7.5% yield with a seven‑month call window, both paying qualified‑dividend‑taxed...
Treasury Hikes I Bond Rate to 4.26%, Fixed Portion Stays Same. What It Means for Savers
The U.S. Treasury lifted the Series I savings‑bond composite rate to 4.26%, up from 4.03%. The fixed‑rate component, however, remains unchanged at 0.9% for bonds issued through October 2026. I Bonds continue to offer inflation‑linked returns, tax‑free state and local treatment,...
May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership
US markets entered Friday with the dollar weakening after a probable ¥5.4 trillion ($34.5 bn) yen intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro climbed toward $1.1750 while sterling rebounded above $1.36, reflecting shifting expectations after five G10 central banks met. Futures now price...
Seasonal Swing Trade In Bonds
The article outlines a seasonal swing‑trade framework for U.S. Treasury bond ETFs, primarily TLT, that exploits recurring calendar‑driven price biases. A backtest of 569 trades shows a 0.43% average gain per trade, a 60% win ratio and a 10.1% compound...
Kaspi.kz (KSPI): 10 Best IPO Stocks to Buy in 2026
Kaspi.kz completed a $600 million senior unsecured note issuance due 2031, offering a 5.9% semi‑annual coupon. The notes were 3.5‑times oversubscribed, attracting roughly 130 institutional investors, and carry investment‑grade ratings of Baa3 from Moody’s and BBB‑ from Fitch. Proceeds will bolster...
Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely
Since April 17, U.S. Treasury yields and crude oil prices have risen in tandem, prompting a modest rally in bond markets. The move appeared to lack a clear economic trigger, with a brief “blow‑off top” followed by a reversal. Core PCE...
Treasury Holds I Bond Fixed Rate at 0.90%; Composite Rate Rises to 4.26%
The U.S. Treasury announced that the fixed rate for new Series I Savings Bonds remains at 0.90%, while the composite rate—combining the fixed portion with the inflation‑adjusted component—rose to 4.26% for the current six‑month period. The increase reflects a higher...
April 2026 PFF Rebalance
The April 2026 rebalance of the iShares Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) shows the fund acting as a net seller, with only modest changes compared to March. Most holdings will face slight selling pressure relative to their averages. No new preferred‑stock...
How Does a Bond Ladder Work?
iShares, a BlackRock brand, now offers an interactive tool that lets investors assemble a bond ladder using target‑maturity ETFs from providers such as Invesco, Vanguard and State Street. By allocating capital across funds that mature in successive years, investors can...
Bonds Extend Downtrends – Oil and Ag Hit New Highs – Gold Oversold in Uptrend
The referenced article titled “Bonds Extend Downtrends – Oil and Ag Hit New Highs – Gold Oversold in Uptrend” is actually a subscriber‑only login page on TrendInvestorPro, offering no substantive market data or analysis. The page lists subscription benefits such...
Nio's Battery Operator Mirattery Expands Financing with 1 Billion Yuan Green ABN
Nio's battery‑asset manager Mirattery issued a second green ABN tranche of 1 billion yuan (≈US$146 million) in April 2026, bringing its cumulative interbank issuance to 4 billion yuan (≈US$585 million). The notes are split into four senior classes with coupons ranging from 2.00% to 5.50%, all...
The Long Bond Yield Is Signaling a Huge Fear of Inflation
The 30‑year U.S. Treasury long‑bond yield rose to 5.01%, just 17 basis points shy of an 18‑year peak. A 7% oil price surge to $107 per barrel has added upward pressure, while technical charts point to a potential breakout toward...
Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed
U.S. Treasury yields climbed to 4.42% on Wednesday, driven primarily by heightened geopolitical risk from a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade. The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement added only a marginal uptick, with yields rising one basis point after the meeting....
There’s Upward Pressure on Interest Rates With a Slight Bias for Fed Hikes
The market’s FedWatch data shows a modest bias toward rate hikes, with the most likely outcome being a 3.50‑3.75% target in April 2027 (67.6% probability). A recent 8‑basis‑point shift from a cut bias to a hike bias coincides with a...
Inside the Fed's Balance Sheet
A new video and podcast interview with finance professor Darrell Duffie examines the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Duffie draws on his recent paper to explain how the Fed’s roughly $8 trillion asset base shapes the U.S. payments system and monetary policy....
Middle East Turmoil Fuels Inflation Fears, Testing Fed’s Patience
The Federal Reserve is poised to leave its policy rate unchanged as it confronts a volatile inflation outlook sparked by renewed Middle East conflict. Escalating tensions have pushed crude oil prices up roughly 8%, feeding higher headline and core consumer‑price...
S&P Upgrades Ceconomy Credit Rating to BB and Maintains CreditWatch Positive
Ceconomy, the German owner of MediaMarkt and Saturn, received an upgrade from Standard & Poor’s, moving its long‑term credit rating from BB‑ to BB. The agency cited a sustained profitable growth trajectory and a stronger standalone risk profile. While the...
Always Summer Targets All-Season Returns in Credit
Always Summer Asset Management, co‑founded by former Atlant Fonder partner Taner Pikdöken, has launched its inaugural fund, Always Opportunities, an absolute‑return credit strategy focused on the Nordic corporate bond market. The fund will hold 50‑70 diversified bond positions and employ derivatives...
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: A Year Marked to Market
Manveer Sahota’s one‑year Substack review shows a strong macro‑driven performance built on forced‑flow trades. Calls on gold versus the dollar, Japanese bond dynamics, vol‑control strategies and a European bank re‑rating generated outsized gains, with the gold trade alone delivering over...
WHY DID THE FRONT-END GET HAMMERED SO BADLY?
The article dissects the sharp decline in the front‑end development market during Q2 2024, linking it to a confluence of macroeconomic pressure, AI‑driven low‑code platforms, and a strategic pivot toward back‑end infrastructure. It highlights a 40% drop in front‑end job postings,...
Is China Selling US Treasuries? AI View, Consensus View, the Right View
China’s official reserve portfolio shows a continued pullback from U.S. Treasuries, with holdings now around $694 billion—the lowest level since 2008. The sell‑off is driven by a mix of reserve diversification, yuan‑support policies, and geopolitical risk concerns, while much of the...
TreasuryDirect, Ditch the ‘Gift Box’ and Raise the I Bond Purchase Cap
TreasuryDirect has sent a new email urging holders of Series I Savings Bonds in the gift‑box program to deliver their bonds promptly. The notice clarifies that while only one gift bond can be delivered at a time, recipients can receive unlimited...
The Credit-Equity Divergence: What 285 Basis Points Is Telling You That 7,000 Isn't
The ICE BofA US High‑Yield Master II option‑adjusted spread fell to 285 basis points on April 21, a level last seen in June 2007 before the Great Financial Crisis. At the same time, the S&P 500 surged past the 7,000 mark, closing the week at...
A Credit Getting Better While the Market Digests the Iran Conflict
The credit metrics of an integrated energy major show leverage comparable to peers, record production, superior reserve replacement, and positive free cash flow each quarter since late 2023. Its 2033 senior notes trade wider than comparable bonds because of a...
All Quiet on the Long-Bond Front. How Long Can This Last?
The U.S. 30‑year Treasury yield has been unusually steady since March 29, trading in an 8.2‑basis‑point band between 4.858% and 4.940%, even as oil prices swung more than 30% and equities experienced sharp moves. Analysts attribute the calm to market uncertainty...
Sovereign Debt Reset Barely Pauses for Reflection
The IMF and World Bank convened their spring meetings without headline‑grabbing defaults, but sovereign‑debt initiatives dominated the agenda. An official‑private sector forum, born out of the Russia‑Ukraine crisis, reported that five restructuring cases are near completion, with Ethiopia the only...
Financial Markets and Economic Resilience
A recent New York Fed Liberty Street Economics paper classifies emerging markets by MSCI stock‑market maturity, separating a "Core" group of 22 economies from a larger "Periphery" set. The analysis shows Core markets—such as India, Korea and Taiwan—have posted faster...
5-Year TIPS Auction Gets a Real Yield of 1.367%
On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned 5‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) with a real yield of 1.367%, marking a modest increase over the prior auction. The offering attracted robust demand, pulling in roughly $38 billion in bids from both domestic and...
Rate Hike at the Central Bank of the Philippines
On April 23, 2026, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, its first hike since October 2023. The move reverses a 25‑bp cut made two months earlier, bringing the rate back above the...
A Patent Cliff Everyone Sees, and Bonds That May Be Pricing Too Much Fear
Pfizer reported full‑year 2025 revenue of $62.6 billion, a modest 2% decline but a 6% rise when COVID products are excluded. The company’s non‑COVID portfolio, bolstered by Seagen, Biohaven and Metsera assets, generated $10.2 billion and grew about 14% operationally. Leverage sits...