Today's Commodities Pulse
Oil Premiums Collapse as US‑Iran Deal Sparks Relief
Spot premiums for crude and refined products across Asia, Europe and Africa fell sharply after the announcement of a preliminary U.S.–Iran agreement. Dubai’s premium to swaps slid to $2.06 a barrel, near pre‑war levels, while Angolan crude now trades at a $2.20 discount to Brent. Asian naphtha entered contango, with margins plunging about 90%.
Former US Officials Warn of Impending 'Widespread Collapse of American Agriculture': 'Our Farmers and Ranchers … Can't Compete with the...
The agricultural sector faces a perfect storm of policy and market pressures, according to a bipartisan letter signed by former heads of the National Corn, Barley, and Soybean Growers associations. The signatories contend that recent tariffs on farm inputs and restrictive trade measures have inflated production costs and limited export opportunities, eroding U.S. comparative advantage. By raising prices for fertilizers, machinery, and seed, these tariffs squeeze profit margins and force growers to compete against nations with more predictable regulations. The letter urges immediate tariff exemptions and renewed trade agreements to restore competitiveness, warning that without swift action U.S. farms risk losing market share to China and Brazil.
India Shuns Urals, China Gets Cheaper Russian Oil
🇮🇳Indian refiners' reluctance to take Russian Urals crude shipments is pushing these discounted cargoes toward buyers like China & others, making them even cheaper in those markets—while the Indian refiners turn to replacement crudes at international prices. An Urals cargo...
Seventh Sanctioned Russian LNG Tanker Navigates Red Sea
⛄️⛄️⛄️Sanctions? What sanctions? Where are you going, Zarya? This is going to be the 7th LNG carrier passing the Red Sea carrying Russian LNG. This is a sanctioned tanker carrying LNG from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2. Map from @Kpler
US Grain Storage Capacity Growth Has Stopped
US grain storage capacity expanded steadily from 2000 to 2019, adding roughly 350 million bushels per year, but growth has essentially stopped after 2020. Meanwhile, crop production kept rising, pushing the surplus capacity margin down to just 5 % in 2025. On‑farm...
Elevra, Mangrove Lithium Ink Offtake MoU for NAL Project in Quebec
Elevra Lithium has signed a non‑binding MOU with Canada’s Mangrove Lithium to off‑take up to 144,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per year from the North American Lithium (NAL) project in Quebec. The supply would begin in 2028, scaling to full...
North American Oil Data Deck (February 2026)
The February 2026 North American Oil Data Deck reveals that petroleum liquids output hit a record 31.4 million barrels per day, driven by a surge in Canadian production that more than compensated for flat U.S. and Mexican output. Meanwhile, continental...
US Military Boards Sanctioned Oil Tanker in Indian Ocean
The U.S. military conducted a right‑of‑visit boarding of the Panama‑flagged tanker Aquila II in the Indian Ocean after tracking it from the Caribbean. The vessel, linked to sanctions on Venezuelan and illicit Russian oil, had been operating with its transponder off,...
Permian Operators Complete 3,600 Wells via Simul Frac
U.S. operators in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico completed ~3,600 wells in 2025 using simultaneous hydraulic fracturing (simul frac), a technique that minimizes completion crew time on well pad sites by completing two wells simultaneously. https://t.co/FxdE8jlBs7 Well completion occurs...
Free Webinar: Venezuela’s Oil Industry
In this free webinar, host Doug Garber brings together oil market veteran Paul Sankey and AlphaSense researcher Xavier Smith to dissect the current state of Venezuela’s oil sector. They explore the country’s production potential, the political and operational barriers that...
Russian Oil Sector Under Siege as EU Ramps up Pressure and India Winds Down Imports
The European Union announced plans to replace its $44.10‑per‑barrel Russian oil price cap with a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian crude, pending member‑state approval. The ban would block hull, machinery, and insurance services, pushing Russia toward the uninsured...
Taiwan to Freeze Fuel Prices over Lunar New Year, Gas Rates Through February
Taiwan's Executive Yuan announced a temporary freeze on gasoline and diesel prices from Feb 16‑23 and will keep natural gas and LPG rates unchanged through the end of February to smooth consumer costs during the Lunar New Year. The decision follows...
Trump Tariff Keeps India From Returning to Venezuelan Oil
🔴 Here is something to think about: 🇮🇳 If President Trump had not imposed the additional 25% tariff on India for importing Russian oil—and with Venezuelan crude now becoming available—would Indian refineries resume buying Venezuelan oil, as they did in the...
US Backs Altona’s Mozambique Rare Earths Project
Altona Rare Earths announced that the U.S. Trade & Development Agency will support its Monte Muambe project in Mozambique, prompting a 76% surge in the company's London‑listed shares. The backing aims to map technical and financial routes for extracting rare‑earth...
Interview with Triangle Investor
In this episode, economist Alasdair Macleod outlines a 2026 outlook where a tightening silver market, driven by massive physical shortages and surging demand from China and India, is creating a sharp premium between Shanghai and Western markets. He warns that...
Germany Puts Wind, Solar on the Hook for Grid Connections
The episode examines a draft German law that would require wind and solar developers to cover the costs of connecting their projects to the electricity grid, a move prompted by a surge of connection requests, especially from large‑scale battery storage...
Gold Daily Call for February 9th, 2026
In this episode Florian Grummes reviews gold’s recent price action, noting that the metal has retaken the USD 5,000 level and established a bullish higher low at USD 4,655 after a pull‑back. He explains that the market is now in a sideways...
Illegal Iran-India Fuel Smuggling Fuels Refineries, Not Politics
This has nothing to do with Trump's phone call. These are very small shipments of smuggled petroleum products (not crude) that are illegal in both Iran and India. (One of the ships was empty.) These are usually managed by gangs,...
Mexico’s Refineries Hit Highest Crude Processing Since 2014
🇲🇽🏭 Mexican refineries are processing more crude right now than any time since 2014. Thanks most obviously to the start-up of the Dos Bocas refinery, but helped along by high utilization across other large facilities. https://t.co/wEpnmiM8He
Why China’s Aluminum Industry May Have Reached Peak CO2
China's primary aluminum sector, producing about 44 million tons annually, has seen its CO₂ emissions likely peak in 2024. The peak stems from a massive geographic shift moving roughly 13 million tons of output from coal‑heavy provinces to hydro‑rich regions such as...
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Reckless Fiscal Policy
Gold is back above $5,000. The rally in precious metals is reckless and crazy, but so is global fiscal policy. At some point over the past 20 years, policy makers who believe in keeping public debt stable stopped existing. Makes...
Brazil's Corn, Soybean Harvests Expected to Rise; Argentina Steady
🇧🇷Analysts are expecting upside to Brazil's corn and soybean harvests in USDA's report on Tuesday. 🇦🇷Argentina's crops, on average, are not predicted to move much from the January forecast. https://t.co/D3Jg3BAIYv
I Talk Silver with Danny of CapitalCosm
In this episode Alasdair Macleod talks with Danny from CapitalCosm about the current state and outlook for silver as an investment. They explore silver's price dynamics, its relationship to gold, and the macroeconomic factors—like inflation, monetary policy, and industrial demand—shaping...
Canadian Oil Output Hits Record, Boosting Continental Production
📊 Fresh N. American Oil Data 📊 Continental petroleum output hits fresh high-water mark with Canadian supply reaching all-time highs amidst a bounceback in oilsands activity, offsetting flat-ish production in the US and Mexico Check out the Full report: https://t.co/7Xk7El7r1l
Wheat Export Inspections Outpace USDA Target by 61 M Bushels
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 61 million bushels, up from 56 million bushels the previous week. #oatt
Silver Post-Smash Outlook
Alasdair Macleod analyzes the aftermath of a recent sharp drop in silver derivatives, noting that hedge fund long positions are near a 20‑year low while physical liquidity in COMEX and London vaults is extremely thin. He warns that a massive...
LNG Tightens Longer as Qatar, US Delays Stall Supply
Global LNG market is at risk of being tighter for longer 🚢 ⚠️ 🇶🇦 Qatar is pushing back start of its massive expansion to end 2026 🇺🇸 Golden Pass plant in the US delayed to at least March Supply chain bottlenecks threaten...
US Corn, Wheat Inspections Beat Forecasts; Beans Headed to China
🇺🇸U.S. corn & wheat export inspections exceeded all trade estimates last week. Two-thirds of the week's inspected bean cargoes were destined for China, predominantly out of the Gulf. https://t.co/e3b34Q6I3g
Oil Context Weekly (W6)
In this week’s Oil Context Weekly, the host reviews flat crude prices slipping below $68 a barrel after geopolitical chatter between the U.S. and Iran, while noting a modestly backwardated term structure with a "smiley‑faced" futures curve extending to 2027....
Corn and Soybean Export Inspections Top Weekly Totals
Export inspections for the week ending Feb. 5 (mln bu) #corn 51.5, grain sorghum 4.9, #soybeans 41.7, #wheat 21.3 #oatt
Cuba's Fuel Shortage Forces Airport Closures and Hotel Shutdowns
Cuba is running out of oil. The island warned airlines that they wouldn't be able to re-fuel at its 9 major airports from Tuesday for at least one month. The Communist government has closed international hotels to save fuel, too. In...
Friday Footnotes: What's Happening In China
In this episode, the host examines the current state of China's grain market, focusing on its ability to meet President Trump's promised soybean purchases of 8 million metric tons (294 million bushels) and the anticipated 25 million metric tons of new crop. The...
USDA Confirms 264
USDA confirms the sale of 264,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in 2025/26.
2020 Model Predicted No Oil Peak; Experts Now Retreat
🚨Today's news vs my prediction 5 years ago: 👔My model to 2050 showed no peak in oil demand. That was in 2020. 🪶Many have retreated from their "peak demand" predictions. The latest is from Vitol: 🐼Vitol Pushes...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the mixed early‑trade futures landscape, noting grain prices slipping while soybeans rose on expectations of sustained demand despite uncertain Chinese imports. It highlights Brazil's soybean dynamics—rising harvests but limited exports due to domestic crusher buying and a...
BP Should Halt $750M Buybacks for New CEO
COLUMN: Britrish oil giant BP should suspend its $750 million quarterly share buybacks to give incoming CEO Meg O'Neill (who arrives in April) extra financial breathing room. @Opinion $BP https://t.co/23vNRD4Nsw
Vitol Pushes Global Oil Demand Peak to Mid‑2030s
CHART OF THE DAY: Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, shifts its view on global peak oil demand: higher and later. Now, Vitol sees a peak by the "mid" 2030s (previously it anticipated "early" 2030s). Peak demand seen at ~112m...
US Mineral Supply Chains Remain Exposed to China Chokehold: USGS Report
The U.S. Geological Survey’s 2026 mineral commodities summary shows the United States now imports 100% of 16 of the 90 non‑fuel minerals it tracks, up from 15 a year earlier, and relies on foreign sources for more than half of...
Russia's Gold Reserves Top $400 Billion for First Time
🚨 Russia’s gold reserves have officially crossed the $400 billion mark for the first time ever. The milestone reflects years of aggressive gold accumulation, accelerated by rising prices and a strategic shift away from reliance on foreign currencies. Follow for more macro...
Heliostar Pours First Gold From San Agustin Mine
Heliostar Metals announced the first gold pour from its newly restarted San Agustin mine in Durango, marking its second operating asset after La Colorada. The open‑pit mine is projected to deliver roughly 45,000 ounces of gold from existing reserves, prompting...
Weight of Freight: Suez Uncertainty- Implications for Clean Tankers and Diesel”
Erika Tsirikou and Josh Michalowski discuss how ongoing Red Sea tensions are forcing tankers to bypass the Suez Canal and the potential reopening of the canal by 2026. They examine the resulting pressure on clean LR1 and LR2 freight rates,...
DPM Adds 20% More Gold-Silver to Extend Bulgaria Mine
DPM Metals announced a 20% increase in measured and indicated resources at its Chelopech gold‑copper mine, boosting total reserves to 1.6 million ounces of gold and 6.23 million ounces of silver. The update extends the mine’s projected life to ten years, up...
January 2026 Metals Options Report
Gold options opened 2026 with record‑high activity, posting a month‑to‑date average daily volume of 73 K contracts for monthly tenors and 30 K for weekly. Spot gold surged past $5,000 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and heightened geopolitical tension, while...
FAO Food Price Index Declines in January for Fifth Consecutive Month
The FAO Food Price Index slipped to 123.9 points in January, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline and a 0.4% drop from December. Prices fell sharply for dairy (‑5%) and sugar (‑1%), while the cereal price index edged up 0.2%...
Gold Daily Call for February 6th, 2026
The Gold Daily Call episode for February 6th, 2026 breaks down the latest movements in the gold market, focusing on price trends, macroeconomic drivers, and upcoming central bank policy decisions. Host analysis highlights the impact of recent inflation data, US...
US Weekly Oil Data
The episode breaks down the latest U.S. weekly oil production and inventory figures, highlighting recent shifts in crude output, refinery utilization, and stockpile levels. It explains how these data points are influencing price movements and market sentiment, especially in the...
Hormuz on the Brink?
U.S. forces escalated the standoff with Iran after an F‑35 shot down an Iranian drone that approached a carrier in the Arabian Sea. Both sides have scheduled high‑level talks in Istanbul, raising hopes for a diplomatic de‑escalation. The dispute centers...
Watch Out for Japan’s Election on Sunday
The episode analyzes the recent collapse in gold and silver prices, attributing it to extremely low speculative open interest on COMEX and a lack of buyers, which created a price vacuum. It notes that the market has now stabilized as...
LG Energy Solution Targets 90GWh of Battery Orders in US Energy Storage Market in 2026
LG Energy Solution announced a target of 90 GWh of new battery‑energy‑storage‑system (BESS) orders in the United States for 2026, raising its ESS cell output to over 60 GWh while keeping total global capacity at roughly 300 GWh. The company plans to slash...
Interview with Jasmine of Money Magpie
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod discusses the potential collapse of the fiat currency system, drawing parallels to the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation and the subsequent surge in gold prices. He argues that fiat money depends on confidence and credit, but governments...
Pro Farmer Podcast | What's Next for the Dollar?
In the February 2 2026 episode of the Pro Farmer Podcast, host Davis Michaelsen and guest Bill Watts dissect the recent turbulence in the U.S. dollar and its ripple effects on precious‑metal markets. They attribute the dollar’s swings to shifting Federal Reserve...