Today's Commodities Pulse
Spot oil premiums tumble as US‑Iran deal eases Middle‑East tensions
Spot premiums for crude and refined products across Asia, Europe and Africa fell sharply after President Trump announced a preliminary US‑Iran agreement. Dubai’s premium to swaps slid to $2.06 a barrel, near pre‑war levels, while Angolan crude now trades at a $2.20 discount to Brent. Asian naphtha entered contango, with margins plunging about 90%.
What Does Malaysia’s Complete Ban on E-Waste Imports Mean for Battery, Aluminium, Copper Recyclers?
Malaysia upgraded its e‑waste import prohibition from a conditional to an absolute ban, ending all shipments of end‑of‑life batteries and related waste. The move creates immediate supply uncertainty for battery recyclers that rely on imported black mass, likely driving up payables. Domestic e‑waste collectors see a market vacuum that could accelerate local recycling capacity and position Malaysia as a mid‑stream processing hub. The stricter regime also ripples into aluminium and copper scrap markets, where tighter inspections and Basel Convention changes are raising operational costs.
Govt Urges Refiners to Prioritise US, Venezuelan Crude Amid Evolving Trade Ties: Report
India has urged its state‑owned refiners to give priority to crude from the United States and Venezuela as part of a broader effort to diversify supplies and reduce reliance on Russian oil. The government’s suggestion applies to spot‑market tenders for...
Nickel Price Jumps as Indonesia’s Top Mine Cuts Output
Indonesia ordered the world’s largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay, to cut its ore quota from 42 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes for 2024, aiming to tighten global supply. The LME nickel price rose 2 percent to $17,835 a tonne, extending a rally of...
Mild Chinese Winter Cuts Heating Demand by up to 6%
CHINA’s winter has been relatively mild so far, limiting gas consumption and imports. Heating demand in the North China metro-region including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (home to 109 million people and accounting for 9% of GDP) has been about 2%...
What's Driving Northern Ireland's Falling Fuel Prices?
Petrol prices in Northern Ireland have fallen to 124.2 pence per litre, the lowest level in five years, while diesel holds steady at 131.9 pence. The decline follows a global oil oversupply and easing geopolitical tensions after the 2022 price spike triggered...
TotalEnergies Cuts Buybacks as Low Oil, Gas Prices Weigh on Profits
TotalEnergies announced a 62% reduction in its Q1 share buyback, lowering the program to $750 million after a fourth‑quarter adjusted net income of $3.8 billion fell 13% year‑on‑year. The cut reflects weaker oil and gas prices that offset a 215% surge in...
An FTA No One Is Talking About Can Give India a Strategic Edge
The India‑Chile free trade negotiations are moving toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement that explicitly includes critical minerals such as lithium, copper, and cobalt. Chile’s abundant reserves could supply India’s “Make in India” and clean‑energy ambitions, while recent moves by...
India’s Solar Boom Hits Module Glut, Upstream Gaps Persist: Report
India's solar module capacity has surged to about 144 GW and is projected to reach 180 GW by FY30. However, upstream segments lag, with cell capacity stuck near 23.4 GW, creating a supply‑demand mismatch as installations are expected at only 45‑50 GW annually. The...
HMM Stays in the Black in Q4
South Korean carrier HMM posted a Q4 2025 net profit of KRW 364 billion, a 59.9% plunge from the prior period, while revenues fell 14.2% to KRW 2.71 trillion. The full‑year results showed a 50.3% profit drop to KRW 1.88 trillion as container freight rates slumped 49%...
Venezuelan Crude Stuck, Limited Shipments to Europe, India
🇻🇪It seems the trading houses that bought the Venezuelan crude from the Trump administration are having trouble marketing the oil globally. Most of the oil is sent to the US. Here in the map, three tankers are going to Europe...
Trump's Choice on Iran Deal Drives Oil Risk Premium
A high-stakes meeting indeed. If Trump yields to Netanyahu's demand to push for a comprehensive deal covering Iran's ballistic missiles programme and support for regional proxies, possible outcomes: -- Drawn-out negotiations under the looming shadow of military action -- Higher chances of a...
China State Gold Miner Zijin Eyes Global Top 3 as Geopolitical Risks Grow
China's state‑owned Zijin Mining Group announced an aggressive push to rank among the world’s top three gold and copper producers, primarily through overseas acquisitions. The strategy emphasizes gold and copper as core minerals for future growth while acknowledging heightened geopolitical...
USD Soft, JPY Squeeze Persists, Oil Spikes on Iran Tension
$USD is soft ahead of the delayed jobs report. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday, but the dramatic short squeeze of $JPY continued. WTI is up ~2% as the US-Iran confrontation seems near a climax. ...
Growth Slows, Yields Rise—Short Treasury Duration
Macro: growth softens, yields rise. Key: sticky CPI, Fed tightening, tight labor. Risks: stagflation, policy error. Trade: short US Treasury duration as real yields climb. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Chinese Traders Amplified Gold Volatility
The episode examines how Chinese traders, long recognized for aggressive speculation, sparked a dramatic swing in gold prices—from a surge to $5,600 in late January to a plunge to $4,423 within days. The host recounts a December report predicting this...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the afternoon market dynamics for corn, soybeans, wheat, and livestock futures, noting a shift from steady to lower overnight prices before a positive day‑trade bounce driven by soy meal and oil strength and weather concerns in South...
Uranium Market Gathers Momentum in 2026: Sprott
Uranium spot prices surged above $100 per pound in January 2026, the first breach of that level in two years, signaling renewed market vigor. Sprott Asset Management, a major buyer, added 4 million lb to its fund this year, bringing total holdings...
Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk; Gold Remains Strong
Technical analysis made simple with Kevin Wadsworth of Northstar & Bad Charts. We break down his case for more downside risk (bitcoin to bottom in Q3/Q4?) and the Capital Rotation Event: why many assets look bearish while gold holds strong....
Thermal (and Industrial) Coal Update - 10 Feb
In this episode, the host reviews recent price movements in South African thermal and industrial coal, highlighting a notable price rally driven by strong demand from Indian sponge‑iron and cement producers. The discussion references insights from the McCloskey OPIS coal...
US Antimony, Americas Gold to Jointly Build Idaho Plant
United States Antimony and Americas Gold have formed a 51-49 joint venture to construct a hydrometallurgical processing plant in Idaho’s Silver Valley. The facility will treat antimony feed from Americas Gold’s Galena complex and could handle additional sources, aiming to...
First Quantum Credit Outlook Improves on Cobre Panama Progress
S&P Global Ratings upgraded First Quantum Minerals' credit outlook to positive, citing tangible progress toward restarting the Cobre Panama copper mine. The agency now expects the mine to resume operations in the first half of 2026, with a production ramp‑up later...
Permian Wells Surge 13% as Crews Work Smarter
The frac spread count measures the number of completion crews actively fracturing a well. In the Permian, the frac spread count averaged ~100 crews in 2025, 3% higher than the 2024 average. Yet operators completed a total of ~6,800 wells,...
U.S. Secretary Of State: Brazil & China To 'Trade In Own Currencies & Get Around The Dollar'
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted Brazil's new trade agreement with China that will use their own currencies instead of the U.S. dollar, signaling a shift toward a secondary, dollar‑independent global economy. He warned that as more nations transact...
Mountain Province Pauses Tuzo Phase 3
Mountain Province Diamonds announced a pause on the Tuzo Phase 3 development at its Gahcho Kué mine, citing weak diamond prices and rising costs. The joint‑venture partners are refocusing capital on higher‑grade feed from the NEX pipe to safeguard liquidity. The decision...
Vedanta Aluminium Boosts Billet Production to 830,000 Tonnes per Annum
Vedanta Aluminium has raised its Jharsuguda billet output to 830,000 tonnes per year, adding 250,000 tonnes of new capacity and a 120,000‑tonne Primary Foundry Alloy line. The upgrade uses advanced casting and homogenising technology from Wagstaff and Hertwich, cementing the...
BP Finally Admits Debt Exceeds $50 Billion, Not $22 Billion
Regular readers know we at @Opinion had flagged BP had far more debt than the company's prefered metric (~$22 bn). Look at net debt + hybrids + leases + off-balance sheet items and it's >$50 bn. Now, BP acknowledges the issue...
U.S. Grants License to Revive Venezuela's Oil Production
OIL MARKET: Washington issues a new general license to allow oilfield-service companies to work in Venezuela — it’s a crucial step to boost oil output in the Latin American country. https://t.co/ozdDE2MiMZ
Mining Corridors as Catalysts: Building on the Lobito Model
In December 2025 the United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a strategic partnership that gives Washington preferential access to Congolese mineral deposits. The article argues that the next step is building logistics corridors, using the Lobito Corridor—linking...
US Canadian Crude Imports Plateau; Midwest Saturated, Gulf Pressure Wanes
🇨🇦🛢️🇺🇸 US Canadian crude imports by importing region and crude grade quality Total US plateauing/rolling over Midwest still key Canadian market, but entirely saturated USGC was the pressure valve, but fell back when TMX opened (first went to West Coast, now increasingly China)...
Import Prices Rise Slightly, Showing Tariffs Not Absorbed
Another month of US import price data shows - again - that foreigners aren't broadly eating Trump's tariffs (bc if they were, prices would have collapsed this year - instead they're up slightly) https://t.co/Dwv9hRwxO1 https://t.co/pF66RuUWjN
BP Steps up Cost Cutting as Profits Slide
BP reported 2025 earnings of $7.5 bn, a 15% drop from the previous year, as crude prices fell roughly 20%. The oil major lifted its cost‑saving goal to $5.5‑$6.5 bn by the end of 2027, up from a $5 bn ceiling, and halted...
Gold Nears Breakout: From Panic to Directional Pause
Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD From Panic to Pause- Breakout to Decide Direction https://t.co/e2vca3B4h2 $XAUUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/BsGu6wpKlh
Climax Top Signals Bear Market for Precious Metals
OUT NOW - @BergMilton on: - clear sign of "climax top" in gold & silver - why he expects a precious metals bear market - S&P 500, Bitcoin, Software + Korean stocks & more Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi 1/3 https://t.co/U3F0Pxojhy
Scale of Australia’s Dec Chickpea, Lentil Exports Surprises
Australian legume exporters posted a dramatic December surge, shipping 588,122 tonnes of chickpeas and 410,805 tonnes of lentils, up 57% and more than double respectively from November. India dominated demand, taking 63% of chickpeas and 39% of lentils, while Bangladesh and Pakistan...
Western Canadian Refineries Thrive, Ontario Slows, East Rebounds
🇨🇦🏭⛽️ Canadian refineries are running strong in the West, have seen operations slip faster than seasonally normal in Ontario, and have had a bouncing start to the year in Quebec & Eastern Canada. https://t.co/CY8K1qOKIh
US Refineries Pivot From Canadian to Venezuelan Heavy Crude
US refinery heavy crude sourcing from Canada (red) vs Venezuela (pink), compared to refinery capacity (blue) 2010 on the left, 2024 on the right https://t.co/nKOX5T7tGn
Fresh From the Trading Room: A Little Jittery
The past two weeks saw extreme swings in commodities, with gold tumbling 12% after a record near $5,600, silver down about 30% from its $120 peak, and natural gas plunging 26% on shifting demand forecasts. President Trump’s nomination of former...
Gulf Coast Refineries Boost Capacity, Replace Imports with Shale Oil
US Gulf Coast refineries (PADD3) have continued to grow distillation capacity while dramatically shrinking imports, displacing imported light and medium crudes with domestic light tight oil from the Shale Patch https://t.co/6EezXrbiQL
USDA Cuts Global Corn, Wheat Stocks; Soy up on Brazil
USDA's estimates for global corn and wheat ending stocks come in below expectations/last month (ending wheat's run of surging each month as harvests surpassed predictions). Soy stocks are up on a massive 180 mmt Brazilian crop. https://t.co/kM88lO1Zbq
US to Exempt some Bangladeshi Clothes From Tariffs
The United States announced a new trade pact that lowers its tariff on Bangladeshi apparel from 20% to 19% and grants tariff‑free status to garments made with U.S. cotton and man‑made fibers. In return, Bangladesh will open its market to...
USDA Lifts Brazil 2025/26 Soybean Forecast to 180 Mt
USDA pushes Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest to 180 million metric tons. No changes to corn or to Argentina's crops. https://t.co/D2KarYYtVJ
USDA Lifts Corn Export Outlook, Cuts Ending Stocks
U.S. corn ending stocks decrease from last month as USDA bumps exports to 3.3 billion bushels. Minimal/no changes in wheat and beans. https://t.co/FpMZKyhSPO
Gold and Silver Bull Market Persists, Keep Cash Ready
I had a great chat with Peter Spina @goldseek at #VRIC. We covered why this still looks like a real gold/silver bull market, why I keep cash ready, and where early-stage opportunity is hiding. Full interview 👇
Brent Futures Steepen Backwardation, WTI Weakens
The Brent (white) and WTI (blue) futures curves are telling rhyming but importantly different stories right now Both have a backwardated front, depressed belly into contango past 2027 But Brent curve seeing steepening prompt backwardation (70c/bbl now) while WTI weakening (20c) https://t.co/5ZyF18ZPDO
Analysts Anticipate Stable US/World Stocks, Brazil Crop Gains
All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand report due Tuesday at 11 am CT. On average, analysts don't expect major changes to U.S. and world stocks, though Brazil's corn and soybean crops could increase. U.S. demand will also be...
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Debt Monetization Fears
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
BP's Looney and Auchincloss Tenure a Board‑Enabled Disaster
Further thought on BP: Today proves, if ever there was a need of further proof, what a disaster the tenure of Bernard Looney and Murray Auchincloss were for the UK oil major. (...all permited / encouraged by a weak board...)
BP Halts $750M Quarterly Buyback Over Mounting Debt
In view of BP's announcement this morning it's cancelling its $750-million-a-quarter share buyback, let me re-publish yesterday's @Opinion note arguing the British oil major couldn't afford it anymore. It comes down to debt -- lots of debt. https://t.co/23vNRD4Nsw
China May Smash Coal Output Record if Imports Fall
Will China's coal production hit another record this year? 🇨🇳🪨 China’s main coal industry body warns that imports may fall if Indonesia moves to restrict shipments They see production hitting a record 4.86 billion tons in 2026, but could go higher if...
Russian Tankers Route to Singapore Despite Sanctions, China Shift
Russian oil tankers list Singapore as destination amid sanctions and shift to China, LSEG data shows https://t.co/1md44bH813