Today's Commodities Pulse
Spot oil premiums tumble as US‑Iran deal eases Middle‑East tensions
Spot premiums for crude and refined products across Asia, Europe and Africa fell sharply after President Trump announced a preliminary US‑Iran agreement. Dubai’s premium to swaps slid to $2.06 a barrel, near pre‑war levels, while Angolan crude now trades at a $2.20 discount to Brent. Asian naphtha entered contango, with margins plunging about 90%.
Druzhba Flows Halted, More Russian Refineries Under Attack
Slovakia and Hungary have reported a complete halt of Russian crude deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline, marking the latest escalation in the energy conflict between Moscow and Kyiv. Simultaneously, a series of drone attacks this week have damaged several Russian refineries, further constraining the country's processing capacity. The combined disruptions threaten Russia's export revenues and could tighten fuel supplies across Central Europe. Analysts warn that the situation may prompt rapid shifts in regional energy sourcing.
Brent Option Skew Halves, Signaling Lower Iran Risk
Brent crude option skew—which many have been treating as a proxy of oil market Iran risk perception (see comp to June 2025)—continues to deflate. Down more than half from a week ago, with prices down ~$3/bbl from Wednesday high. Gives a sense...
Delayed Publication of In-Warehouse Rotterdam Vanadium Pentoxide, CIF Rotterdam and Baltimore APT, CIF Global Tungsten Concentrate Price Assessments
Fastmarkets announced a 16‑minute delay in publishing three key price assessments for vanadium pentoxide, tungsten APT, and tungsten concentrate. The delayed entries—MB‑V‑0001, MB‑W‑0001, and MB‑W‑0005—are part of the company’s ores and alloys pricing package. Fastmarkets provided contact details for feedback...
Hecla Nearly Doubles Exploration Budget
Hecla Mining announced it will spend $55 million on exploration and pre‑development in 2026, almost doubling the $27.7 million invested last year. The budget targets its Nevada projects and existing assets in Alaska, Yukon and Idaho, aiming to replace or exceed annual...
Aramco Set for Initial Jafurah Condensate Exports
Saudi Aramco will load its first cargoes of Jafurah condensate in March, following the start‑up of the giant Jafurah wet‑gas project late last year. The development converts wet gas into condensate and LPG, adding a new stream to the kingdom’s...
Gold & Silver Rebound, And A Look Inside The Indian Silver Market
The episode reviews the recent rebound in gold and silver prices, with gold back above $5,000 per ounce and silver futures climbing to $77.89. It delves into the Indian silver market, highlighting rapid price spikes, profit‑taking, and a sharp correction...
Final Decision on Open Consultation on Methodology Review for Non-Ferrous Materials, Industrial Minerals
Fastmarkets completed its annual open consultation on pricing methodology for non‑ferrous materials and industrial minerals, running from 6 January to 6 February. No feedback was submitted, so the firm will keep its current methodologies unchanged for the upcoming reporting period. An inquiry...
New England Receives Another LNG Import Cargo as Winter Takes Its Toll
The Excelerate Shenandoah delivered a full LNG cargo from Trinidad’s Atlantic terminal to the Everett import facility in Boston Harbor. The shipment marks the fourth cargo received at Everett this winter, adding to a total of six deliveries last winter and...
IEA Dials Back Its Oversupply Warning After Winter Shocks
The International Energy Agency trimmed its 2026 oversupply warning after a surprise 1.2 million barrels‑per‑day supply drop caused by cold snaps in the United States and a power‑outage‑forced shutdown at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field. Europe’s gas inventories fell to just 35 % of...
Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD Fails to Find Acceptance Above $79.00
Silver (XAG/USD) slipped to $77.35 on Friday, unable to sustain a breakout above the $79 resistance level. The metal is trapped below the 50‑period SMA at $81, reinforcing a bearish technical bias. A firm US Dollar Index and cautious market...
Agnico Eagle Posts Record Reserves, Hikes Payout
Agnico Eagle reported record 2025 gold reserves of 55.4 million ounces, a 2.1% rise, while net income surged 135% to $4.46 billion. Production hit 3.45 million ounces, meeting its target, and the company lifted its quarterly dividend to $0.45 per share. Exploration...
European Pulp Prices Climb Amid Ongoing BEK and NBSK Negotiations
European pulp markets are seeing divergent trends as bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) prices jumped $120 per tonne for January, while northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) only posted modest gains. The BEK surge is driven by supply constraints from Iberian strikes,...
US Gasoline Inventories Hit Near-Record, Squeezing Margins
U.S. GASOLINE STOCKS are well above normal for the time of year, weighing on refining margins. Inventories totalled 259 million barrels on February 6, the second highest on record for the time of year, exceeded only before the pandemic in...
Senco's Stellar Q3 Topline Growth Driven by Gold Price Rally; Likely to Close FY with ₹8,000 Cr Revenue: MD
Senco Gold & Diamonds reported a 39% same‑store sales surge in Q3, driven primarily by a 65% rally in gold prices over the past year. Despite the topline boost, Q3 volumes slipped 3% YoY and nine‑month volumes fell 10%. EBITDA...
Australia Should Have CBAM on some Commodities: Review
Australia’s latest carbon leakage review recommends a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), beginning with cement and clinker imports and potentially expanding to hydrogen, steel, ammonia and related products. The review, led by ANU professor Frank Jotzo, evaluated 75 trade‑exposed commodities...
The Pivot: Unlocking the Central African Republic’s Substantial Resource Frontier
A&S Resources announced strategic contracts to develop a 20 billion‑tonne high‑grade iron ore deposit in the Central African Republic, valued at up to $2.5 trillion in‑situ. The resource, located in the Bangui Anomaly, has been validated by an independent technical report, confirming...
Correction to Rationale of Premium Hard Coking Coal, Fob Eastern Australian Ports: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets corrected the pricing rationale for its Premium Hard Coking Coal (PHCC) index FOB eastern Australian ports on 12 Feb 2026. The index fell $2.43 per wmt that day, reflecting limited market activity and the application of fallback measures. A notable trade...
Russia's Dollar Return Threatens Metals Rally
🚨 THIS COULD BE A GAME CHANGER FOR METALS AND RISK ASSETS Big news emerged yesterday: Russia is seriously considering returning to dollar-based settlements as part of a broader economic partnership with President Trump. For the past 3–4 years, Russia has been...
Cameroon Clamps Down on Shadow Fleet as Flag Purge Begins
Cameroon’s ship registry, now Africa’s third‑largest, surged 126% in the past year, largely due to Russian‑linked vessels adopting its flag. The fleet’s average age has risen to 32.7 years, prompting safety concerns after several high‑profile incidents. Under pressure from the EU...
Maran Dry Returns to Newbuilds with Capesize Order at Hengli
Maran Dry, the bulk carrier arm of Angelicoussis Shipping, has placed an order for four new capesize vessels at Hengli Heavy Industry’s Dalian yard, with options that could expand the deal to six ships. This marks the company’s first new‑build...
Nigeria Marginal Field Dispute Raises Investor Concerns After Dawes Island Court Ruling
A Federal High Court in Nigeria overturned the 2020 revocation of the Dawes Island marginal field licence, reinstating Eurafric Energy Limited’s rights. The ruling challenges the Ministry of Petroleum Resources’ decision not to renew the licence after a decade of...
MOL Group Enters Libya Offshore in Joint Venture with Repsol and TPAO
MOL Group has secured a 20% stake in Libya’s O7 offshore block through a joint venture with Repsol and Turkey’s TPAO. The block covers over 10,300 sq km in water deeper than 1,500 m, awarded in Libya’s first licensing round in 17 years....
North Sea’s First Methane-Certified ‘Grade A’ Gas Project Launched by ONE-Dyas
ONE‑Dyas has launched the N05‑A development in the Dutch‑German North Sea, becoming the region’s first offshore gas project to earn MiQ Grade A certification for methane emissions. The field, part of the GEMS area, holds up to 50 billion cubic metres of...
Partners Advance Vaca Muerta-Linked Argentina LNG Export Development
YPF, Eni and XRG have signed a binding joint development agreement to move the Argentina LNG project forward, leveraging gas from the Vaca Muerta shale play. The plan calls for two floating LNG units delivering a combined 12 million tonnes per year...
Patriot Lines up Global Copper-Silver Assets for the AI-Driven Surge
Patriot Resources, an ASX‑listed junior, has assembled a global copper‑silver portfolio aimed at capitalising on the AI‑driven data‑centre boom. The company recently secured the high‑grade Tassa silver‑gold project in Peru for $500,000 and is advancing drilling that has returned multiple...
GIWA Estimate for Record Crop Settles on 27.35Mt
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) announced a record 2025‑26 harvest of 27.35 million tonnes, surpassing its December forecast of 26.55 Mt. Yield gains were driven by adequate July‑August rainfall, mild grain‑fill temperatures, and a 6.8% expansion of total crop...
EMET ETF: Question & Answer>
Metals essential to electrification are seeing demand outpace supply, with copper at the core of grid, transportation, and industrial upgrades. VanEck’s Copper and Green Metals ETF (EMET) offers investors a liquid, diversified way to capture exposure to copper miners, refiners...
France Scales Back Renewables, Keeps Nuclear Amid AI Power Surge
Link: https://t.co/VlV8K8X7eR 🇫🇷France set out a new energy law after years of wrangling on Thursday which slashes its wind and solar power targets and drops a mandate for state-run firm EDF to shutter nuclear plants. Summary France has cut its 2035 wind and...
Asia’s Bitumen Shift: Trade Flows, Freight, and Future Demand
The episode examines how shifting trade flows, tighter vessel availability, and rising freight costs are reshaping the global bitumen market in 2026, especially for Asian importers. It highlights a surge in Chinese bitumen exports that are undercutting traditional suppliers to...
CNOOC Targets 40% Offshore Wind Capacity Ramp up in 2026
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced a 40% increase in offshore wind capacity for 2026, targeting 3.5 GW of installed power. The expansion, executed with turbine maker Ming Yang Smart Energy, will roll out advanced turbines across southern provinces. Falling costs...
Trump’s Iran Remarks, Not IEA, Drive Oil Slump
A bit of a stretch, attributing crude’s slump on Thursday to the #IEA report. If the market thought a 4 million b/d glut would cushion any supply disruption/shock, including the one posed by current US-Iran tensions, Brent would not have been...
Singapore Light Distillate Stocks Surge to Record Levels
Singaporean light distillate (eg gasoline/naphtha) inventories are *very* high right now. (seasonal chart, million barrels) https://t.co/ZgYbX7ZU9F
Spot Prices Wrap: Midwest Strength Fails to Offset Broad Spot Gas Weakness
Natural‑gas spot prices surged as freezing temperatures drove heating demand, but the rally was tempered by broader market weakness. Midwest hub prices posted gains, yet they were insufficient to lift the overall bias, which slipped lower across most regions. Forecasts...
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
Cargill Shuts Milwaukee Plant, 221 Jobs Lost Amid Herd Slump
"Cargill to Close Milwaukee Beef Facility, Cutting 221 Jobs on Herd Decline" https://t.co/R3enSgd7lj "An industry turnaround isn’t expected soon, as there are few signs of a much-anticipated rebuilding of US herds." 😬
Futures Settle: Natural Gas Pops, Then Drops After Storage Data
Natural‑gas futures surged early Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported a 249 Bcf net withdrawal for the week ending Feb. 6, marking a second consecutive week of above‑average draws. The data lifted front‑month prices as traders priced in tighter supplies, but...
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
Trump’s $12 B Rare‑Earth Stockpile: Mere Band‑Aid
The Trump administration has announced a plan to create a $12 billion stockpile of rare earths. The goal is to create a buffer against any supply disruptions, but this is just a band-aid. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/daeIxnpldt #rareearths #trump #projectvault https://t.co/p6icljXtjO
Canadian Farm Milk Price Changes to Reflect Growing Protein Demand
Canadian dairy farmer organizations are overhauling milk pricing to reflect a surge in protein‑rich product demand, with cottage cheese volumes up 32% and yogurt up 7% in 2025. The Western Milk Pool will pay 70% for butterfat, 25% for protein...
Oil Returns Green, Signaling Bullish Energy Buying Opportunity
OIL: ticks back into the green and remains Bullish TREND @Hedgeye Yesterday was the 1st day where we could start buying some Energy Exposure on red https://t.co/eURgEMfFpO
US NatGas Deficit Hits 2025 High, Prices Plunge
U.S natural gas comparative fell 7 bcf for the week ending February 6 It moved to the greatest deficit since March 2025 Henry Hub spot price decreased $8.78 from $13.79 to $5.01 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/tLe3q7z4xZ
TotalEnergies Expects Mexico’s Energía Costa Azul LNG Terminal to Enter Service This Year
TotalEnergies announced that Mexico’s Energía Costa Azul LNG terminal is expected to enter service later this year, adding a new export hub on the Pacific coast. The company projects a total LNG output of 44 Mt per year from its combined...
US Must Secure Mineral Sources, Not Just Funding
You can’t stockpile what you don’t control. The easy part is $12 billion from the Trump Adminstration. The hard part is finding the mines, processing & pricing. Washington needs to build alliances instead of burning them. https://t.co/JfhrJs5VnH #CriticalMinerals #Geopolitics #China #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Mining #USPolicy
EIB's Grid Debt Shift Sparks Skepticism in Europe
The European Investment Bank plans to advance electricity capacity by moving grid debt off bank books & monetizing future revenues I'm not holding my breath. This is Europe, after all. https://t.co/UHQ7GprVvL #PowerGrids #EnergyInfrastructure #Europe #EIB #Electricity #EnergyTransition
Oil Inventories Rise, Distillate Falls Amid Mixed Market
A mixed week for the oil glut story CI rose but has fallen from its mid-January maximum U.S. comparative inventory rose 1.7 mmb for the week ending February 6 Crude C.I. rose 7.1 mmb, gasoline rose 1.0 mmb but distillate fell 2.4...
Gold Surge Signals Capital Shift, Not Risk‑On Rally
Record gold prices + a weakening dollar don’t scream “risk-on.” They signal global capital reallocation and rising demand for insurance amid lingering policy uncertainty. Hedging behavior is increasing even as equities grind higher.
WTI Inventories Plunge 54%, Prices Push Toward Yellow Curve
WTI comparative inventory has decreased 14 mmb (54%) from its mid-January maximum $63.09 WTI was $6.50 > marginal price on the red yield curve the week ending February 6 Markets may be adjusting price upward toward the yellow yield curve #energy #OOTT #oilandgas...
Venezuelan Production Growth Inflated by Low Baseline
30-40% growth *from what baseline*?! Venezuelan production has been all over the map over the past few months—some very flattering base effects from which to cherry pick.
Physical Possibility ≠ Economic Viability in Oil Markets
Again I’ll say: Virtually anything is physically *possible* in the oil market. Far fewer things are economically viable, let alone profitable. This is a nonsense take.
US Midwest Aluminum Premium Hits Record $1.03 per Pound
"Aluminum prices in the US have been rising faster than global prices for much of this past year because of tariffs. The so-called US Midwest premium...climbed to an all-time high of $1.03 a pound on Wednesday" https://t.co/lVUj91ooyh https://t.co/lIKmsxcJem