Today's Commodities Pulse
Oil execs warn U.S. gasoline prices as inventories hit tank‑bottom levels
Executives from ExxonMobil and other majors said global petroleum inventories have plunged to “tank bottom” levels, with a 500 million‑barrel draw since the Strait of Hormuz closure. U.S. gasoline stocks fell 47.5 million barrels—the steepest February‑to‑May decline since 1990—and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to 357 million barrels, roughly half its capacity.
Commodity Market Movers Report - Portfolio Update 15.02.2026
In this episode, Lukas Kuemmerle reviews his commodity portfolio, highlighting a 50% profit take on a short coffee position after hitting the first target and the initiation of a short trend‑continuation trade in cocoa, capitalizing on a brief consolidation. He explains the rationale behind these moves, emphasizing risk‑reward considerations and the timing challenges he faced before entering the cocoa short. Kuemmerle also outlines his broader market outlook, noting key factors that could influence coffee and cocoa prices going forward. The discussion blends practical trade execution insights with macro commodity trends.
WA Grain Feeds Into Aurizon’s Record HY26 Bulk Earnings
Aurizon announced record bulk earnings for the half ending 31 December, driven primarily by a surge in Western Australian grain volumes. Bulk EBITDA reached $117 million, a 39 percent increase year‑on‑year, while total bulk rail volumes rose 4 percent to 28.4 Mt. The company also...
Saskatchewan’s Rook I Mine Could Make Canada the World’s Largest Uranium Exporter
Canada is on the brink of becoming the world’s largest uranium exporter as NexGen Energy’s Rook I mine in Saskatchewan moves toward final approval by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission. The project, located in the Athabasca Basin, is designed to...
Australian Firms Raise Gasoil Stocks to Meet Obligation
Australian fuel companies have boosted their gasoil inventories to satisfy the government‑mandated Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO). The MSO now requires importers to hold 32 days of gasoil and refiners 20 days, tightening the previous rules. All ten gasoil‑reporting firms met...
The End of the Boozy Chinese Banquet Hits Australia’s Largest Winemaker
Treasury Wine Estates’ push back into China has been derailed by a government crackdown on extravagant banquets and tighter grey‑market controls. The winemaker announced it will pull 400,000 cases from China and 500,000 from the United States to regain pricing...
Australia Exports 2.29Mt Wheat in Dec in New-Crop Surge
Australia’s wheat exports jumped to 2,288,487 tonnes in December 2025, more than double November’s volume and slightly above the 2.13 Mt shipped a year earlier. The surge reflects the arrival of new‑crop wheat from southern ports, marking the start of the...
AI‑gas Hype Overlooks Real Grid Deliverability Constraints
The “AI drives a gas buildout” narrative skips the only thing that matters: DELIVERABILITY @marthamuir25 Turbine lead times are years & interconnection queues are jammed, The grid can’t supply firm power on schedule. Megawatts in press releases aren’t megawatts to the...
Floating LNG Cuts Risk, Revives Gas Exports
Onshore LNG is becoming a security and politics nightmare. That’s why floating LNG is back: faster build, smaller upfront risk And you can park it offshore instead of betting $20B on land stability Lease-and-move models make gas exportable again. https://t.co/wMnwOPoyxv #LNG #FLNG #energy #naturalgas...
Rio Tinto Pauses Simandou Iron Ore Mine in Guinea
Rio Tinto has suspended production at its Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea following the death of a contractor on February 14. The company announced a thorough investigation, though details on the cause remain undisclosed. Simandou, which began shipments in...
California's Gasoline Costs Rise From Bahamas Imports
California has to import US gasoline via Bahamas Refinery closures + no Gulf-to-CA pipelines + the Jones Act = a logistics tax https://t.co/3dGBI24oXI #gasoline #California #energy #refining #JonesAct #shipping #supplychain #oil #inflation #markets
Daily Market Wire 16 February 2026
US headline CPI rose 0.2% month‑over‑month, bringing annual inflation down to 2.4% year‑over‑year and bolstering expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Wheat futures slipped in Chicago, Kansas and European markets as record spread volumes forced an inverted curve, even...
U.S. NatGas Spread Widens as Prompt Prices Drop
U.S. natural gas 12-month spread widened $0.10 (10%) on lower prompt price April contract fell $0.13 (4%) from $3.23 to $3.10 week ending February 13 Front-month price decreased $0.18 (5%) from $3.42 to $3.24 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG
Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
Silver Paper's Problem
The episode examines the severe liquidity crunch in both physical and paper silver, highlighted by a sharp drop in COMEX open interest and widening spreads that deter speculators. It explains how banks and traders are constrained by the high value...
Egypt's Summer Power Surge Drives Record LNG Demand
Egypt expects electricity demand to increase by 7% this summer. That means strong demand for LNG imports. Egypt's LNG demand reached record high last year. 👇👇
Natural Gas Prices Dip, No Rally Expected
The natural gas party is over U.S. natural gas futures price fell $0.18 (5%) from $3.42 to $3.24 week ending February 6 My outlook suggests a modest floor Increase (~$0.25), not a rally forming #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas...
The True Value of Gold Beyond Price - Podcast
In this episode, The Macro Butler breaks down why gold’s worth extends far beyond its market price, emphasizing its role as a historical store of value, a hedge against systemic risk, and a cultural symbol of wealth. He explains how...
Europe Doubts US LNG Reliability Despite Past Optimism
A decade ago, I wrote an essay @ForeignAffairs about rise of US LNG w subhead "The benign energy superpower." https://t.co/P9r14hfb11 This week @MunSecConf, the Q I got most was whether Europe can trust US LNG to be reliable. And privately, senior...
Speculators Turn to Oil for Stability Amid Market Turmoil
Speculative money is leaning back into oil as traders look for stability in a volatile world writes @Ole_S_Hansen Oil is becoming the preferred risk exposure in an otherwise uncertain macro landscape. Relative calm in crude contrasts with violent reversals in precious...
Super-Spiked Videopods (EP91): Long-Takes From The Road: FAQ on "Take Risk"
In Episode 91, Arjun Murti delivers a rapid FAQ on the "take risk" messaging his podcast has been using throughout 2026, focusing on how companies should shape corporate strategy amid a maturing US shale oil sector. He reflects on the...
EU's Fossil Imports Hit 58% of Energy Demand.
EU fossil imports met 58% of energy demand in 2023 - near pre-crisis levels - leaving consumers exposed to price shocks. Far above China (24%) & India (37%); only Japan (84%) & S. Korea (80%) rely more on imports. Graph: @ember_energy...
U.S. Gas Exports Set to Hit 20 Bcf/D by 2027
Drain America First U.S. natural gas exports rise toward 20 Bcf/d in 2027 #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity #ShaleGas #Permian #EnergyInfrastructure #SupplyConstraints #USGas https://t.co/rmLKJzpmpS
China to Continue Dominance of Global Ammonia Supply
China is projected to supply roughly one‑third of the world’s ammonia by 2030, cementing its role as the dominant producer and consumer. Strong agricultural demand for nitrogen‑based fertilizers and a broad industrial base, from steel to plastics, underpin this growth....
Permian Drives US Gas Growth as Others Stall
U.S. natural gas supply growth Is peaking @yagelski @websterdrake Permian is the only play that's growing Other shale gas plays are flat or declining & conventional gas is in terminal decline #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity #ShaleGas #Permian #EnergyInfrastructure #SupplyConstraints #USGas
US Gas Demand Outpaces Infrastructure, Not Supply
Read your chart @yagelski It shows that the US is awash in natural gas DEMAND not supply Pipelines, storage & power-plant hookups lag demand, as they always do. This is an infrastructure problem, not a resource problem. #NaturalGas #EnergyInfrastructure #LNG #PowerMarkets #GridConstraints...
The Cocoa Crash: Is the Bottom Finally In?
The episode dissects the recent turbulence in the cocoa market, highlighting a modest 0.77% price bounce despite a projected 287,000 MT surplus and a 22% sales drop from major players. It explores the concept of "supply ghosts"—beans stranded at Ivorian...
Oil Glut Exists Only in Models, Not Markets
The oil “glut” exists in models, not in physical barrels, writes @MeesEnergy Backwardation holds, volatility stays calm, and the barrels everyone talks about don’t show up in stocks. Models say surplus. The market says otherwise. #OilMarkets #OPECplus #Backwardation #EnergySecurity #SupplyRisk #ChinaOil...
RUB Strengthens as Oil Stabilizes, Gold Surges
Macro: MOEX flat as oil steadies and gold spikes; RUB strengthens (USD/RUB 76.65). Key drivers: commodity moves, stable RVI (24.9). Risks: commodity volatility, sanctions. Trade: buy selective energy exporters on RUB resilience. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
A Precious Metals & Miners Update
The episode reviews the recent market turbulence, highlighting how precious metals and mining stocks held up better than tech and crypto sectors during Thursday's massive sell‑off. A surprisingly mild U.S. CPI report on Friday helped the metals complex rebound, erasing...
Predicting Silver’s Peak and the Next Market
How I Called The Top In Silver & What Comes Next $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL We also about my yen monetization framework, oil, AI-driven software disruption & timing a historic rotation into large-cap value. https://t.co/0A5l9bLx9C
Brent Dips 30 Cents; 12‑month Spread Signals Flat Outlook
Brent futures price fell $0.30 from $68.05 to $67.75 week ending February 13 12-month spread suggests sideways price movement on Monday #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/hYd0O6d84E
Taiwan Commits to $69 Billion US Energy Trade Pact
Taiwan's state-owned enterprises have signed a trade agreement with the United States committing to purchase $44 billion in liquefied natural gas and crude oil and $25.2 billion in power‑generation equipment by 2029. The deal, announced on Feb. 12, creates a $69 billion energy trade...
WTI Spreads Tighten as Front-Month Price Slips
Show me the glut WTI 12-month spread narrowed $0.06 (2%) for the week ending February 13 6-month spread narrowed $0.11 (9%) Front-month price fell $0.66 (1%) from $63.55 to $62.89 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/1VHaA5PFZN
Shell Forecasts Global GDP to Double by 2050
Shell base case assumes sustained 3.3% global growth GDP nearly doubles by 2050 #GlobalGDP #EconomicGrowth #EnergyScenarios #Shell #Macroeconomics #GrowthAssumptions #LongTermForecasts https://t.co/meXF1PuaVe
Oil Prices Level Out Despite Possible Opec-Plus Supply Growth
Oil prices closed Friday largely unchanged after a session marked by sharp swings between macro‑economic headwinds and geopolitical support. Traders weighed the prospect of OPEC‑plus expanding output against lingering demand concerns. The market’s equilibrium suggests that supply‑side expectations have not...
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Demand Plummets as Gas Powers Electricity
CHART OF THE DAY: Among the world's top oil consumers, a curious trend. The 2nd largest consumption drop last year ocurred in Saudi Arabia, where demand fell ~60,000 b/d (only South Korea saw a larger drop). The reason? Gas is...
Pemex's Bond Return Shows State Risk, Not Confidence
Pemex is back in the bond market after six years — and demand was strong. This doesn't signal confidence in Pemex. Buyers are really underwriting the Mexican state. https://t.co/YRGXmzi4aW #Pemex #Mexico #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #SovereignRisk #DebtMarkets #EmergingMarkets
Are AI Data Centers a Scapegoat for Rising US Energy Costs?
US retail electricity prices have spiked, prompting criticism of new AI data center projects. While AI‑driven facilities consume large amounts of power, they represent a modest slice of total grid demand. The backlash threatens a key source of future natural‑gas...
China's Cheap Middle East Oil Squeezes West African Sellers
China is pulling more cheap oil from the Middle East. That leaves W. African oil struggling to find buyers until it gets cheap enough to move again, writes @JuneGoh_Sparta In this tight market, the Middle East has the upper hand. Sorry oil...
OPEC+ Plans April Production Hikes Amid Sanctions
OPEC+ may restart April hikes to catch peak summer and regain share as sanctions bite Russia/Iran. https://t.co/cILwlUi7h2 #OPECplus #Oil #IEA #SaudiArabia #UAE #Iran #Russia
Largest US Gas Producer Expand Ousts CEO, Heads to Houston
Expand Energy, the United States' largest gas producer, announced the removal of CEO Nick Dell'Osso. The leadership change coincided with a plan to relocate the corporate headquarters from Oklahoma City to the Houston metropolitan area. Analysts say the ouster is...
Yield Drop Signals Benign CPI, Boosts Gold Prices
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today, a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time, which is consistent with that...
No Bullish Catalyst for Oil in 2026, Repeat Likely
🚦From a pure fundamentals perspective, there's simply no bullish driver in sight capable of pushing oil prices into the high $70s—or higher—in 2026. ⚽️Betting your capital on a major war with Iran or any similar geopolitical shock to spike prices isn't...
Delfin LNG Explosion Prompts Lawsuit, Broader Safety Concerns
On February 3, a pipeline explosion at the Delfin LNG export project in the Gulf of Mexico halted construction and triggered a lawsuit alleging negligence by the developers and contractors. The incident adds to a history of delays that have already...
Market View: For Gas Prices, a Tale of Two North Americas
The Northeastern United States is enduring its coldest winter in over three decades, pushing spot gasoline prices to a significant premium. In contrast, Western Canada is enjoying its warmest winter in a century, easing local fuel costs. The divergent weather...
Oil Prices, Feb. 13, 2026
Oil prices rose on Feb. 13, 2026 as OPEC+ announced an extension of its production cuts through 2027, supporting a tighter market. U.S. crude inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels, further tightening supply. Brent crude settled at $84 per barrel,...
Money Managers Near Record Soybean Futures Buying on US‑China Optimism
📈Money managers staged a near record buying spree in CBOT soybean futures & options in the week ended Feb. 10 on renewed U.S.-China optimism. New net long = 123,148 contracts. Net buying of 94k contracts was the second most for any...
Kuwait Lags UAE in Oil Capacity, Faces $90.5 Break‑Even
Kuwait's production capacity was ahead of the UAE's in 2010. Now it is 3.2 Mbpd versus 4.85 Mbpd Budget break-even is $90.5 per bbl and oil is 83% of the budget https://t.co/1si82Sc7pF
Brazil Corn: Bids Rise Further
Bids for Brazil's Santos/Tubarao and Barcarena/Itaqui corn cargo markets rose on Friday, driven by a sudden influx of buyers ahead of the Carnaval holiday. Sellers, however, remain reluctant to negotiate, limiting the sustainability of higher prices. Farmers are curbing forward...
Export Momentum Carries Corn Market Into New Year
U.S. corn prices remain buoyed by robust export demand that persisted into early 2025, according to Compeer Financial economist Megan Roberts. While prices are still below target levels, the export momentum offsets downward pressure. Roberts noted that a nationwide E15...