Social•Feb 18, 2026
Iran, China, Russia Joint Drill Threatens US Middle East Plans
What Iran’s Naval Exercise With China And Russia In The Strait Of Hormuz Actually Means The Maritime Security Belt 2026 exercise comes as the U.S. is flowing forces to the Middle East ahead of a possible attack on Iran. https://t.co/28TZDJkik0
By Tyler Rogoway
Social•Feb 18, 2026
India Navy Seizes Shadow Fleet, Triggering Domino Effect
India's navy has begun seizing shadow fleet tankers in its exclusive economic zone. As I've said in other videos covering the shadow fleet, once the first domino falls...the rest will quickly follow. #crudeoil #crude #india #geopolitics https://t.co/IVVPGp8cQ7
By Peter Zeihan
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Lockheed CEO Rules
Lockheed CEO Taiclet says LMT never considered spinning off part of biz to allow for direct DoD ownership stake: L3Harris "didn't have, I guess, apparently, the resource to manage the scaling themselves." If regulators had allowed LMT to buy Aerojet "we...
By Valerie Insinna
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Boeing Returns Defense HQ to St. Louis, F/A-XX Future Uncertain
Boeing just announced the move of its defense unit HQ back to St. Louis, where McDonnell Douglas was headquartered (and where Boeing continues to build fighters and weapons). Industry always welcomes a SecDef visit but real question for workforce will be...
By Valerie Insinna
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Updated Design Adds Bigger Tail Flag, Cooler Engines
New design (left). First Trump admin (right). Much larger flag on the tail, different color on the engines--possibly related to the thermal concerns raised a couple years back. https://t.co/e5GPwczads
By Brian Everstine
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Aging E‑3 Fleet Deployed to Iran, Highlighting Capability Gaps
Major Deployment Of Rickety E-3 Sentry Fleet For Iran Crisis Highlights Worrisome Gaps The shrunken E-3 fleet isn't getting any younger, and a replacement is still far off while demand for its services would be far greater in the Pacific. Story: https://t.co/bX9Y8kMlqE
By Tyler Rogoway
Social•Feb 18, 2026
MBDA Develops Sovereign, Interoperable European Military Space Network
European missile maker @MBDAGroup on building a sovereign, interoperable military space network. @defis_eu #EuropeanSpaceConf. https://t.co/EXzbZr66rT https://t.co/EA9DMPiTXE
By Peter B. de Selding
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Angolan Journalist Targeted with Predator Spyware, Study Shows
A new investigation from @AmnestyTech found that a journalist in Angola was targeted with Predator spyware in 2024. We also know that @citizenlab found links to Predator infrastructure in Angola in 2023, and links to FinFisher infrastructure in 2015. https://t.co/N2TIUdGKkn
By Runa Sandvik
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Dispersed Troops Derailed Ukraine’s Plan to Cut Crimea Supply
From an interview with Valerii Zaluzhnyi regarding the 2023 offensive: “The original plan was to concentrate enough forces into a “single fist” to retake the partially occupied region of Zaporizhzhia — home to a vital nuclear power plant — and then...
By Rob Lee
Social•Feb 18, 2026
New Power Rules for States Facing Reshaping Adversaries
Statecraft: The New Rules of Power in a Divided World To be published 19 March 2026 My new book on how states can pursue strategies when adversaries are powerful enough to reshape the assumptions on which they are premised. https://t.co/vmWAPrLGun
By Jack Watling
Social•Feb 17, 2026
China Still Clings to Outdated Carrier Strategy
“Tom Shugart, senior fellow at [@cnasdc], said: “Obviously [China] didn’t get the memo about carriers being obsolete.”” https://t.co/UhHbFPdoEt
By Tom Shugart
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Iran Shuts Hormuz for Drills Amid US Nuclear Talks
"Iran says it temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz as it held more indirect talks with the US." https://t.co/Ek0ckZEw6N Iran announced the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuzon Tuesday for live fire drills in a rare show of force as its...
By John Spencer
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Air Force to Finalize Sentinel ICBM Restructuring by Year-End
Just in: The Air Force saty it intends to complete by year's end a restructuring plan for the new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile system from Northrop Grumman Corp., after the projected $141 billion program was plagued by skyrocketing costs...
By Tony Capaccio
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Europe’s Defense Reset: Funding Gaps and Combat Reality
Join us on Feb 19 for @Bloomberg webinar on the future of Europe. I’ll dig into what Europe’s defense spending reset really means, where investments are most needed, and whether new commitments will translate into credible combat power. Register here: https://t.co/3WMAfVVGVC...
By Becca Wasser
Social•Feb 17, 2026
India’s Kirana Hills Strike Signals Decisive Deterrence
Evidence of India's precision strikes on/near Kirana Hills, reported to be one of the core Pakistan nuclear program sites, was a direct strategic message to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor that India could hit what it wanted, when it wanted. Escalation...
By John Spencer
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Single Station Detection Yields Uncertain Location
Ah, then 20 tons fully coupled, no more than 400-800 tons fully decoupled. A one-station means its very hard to know the location with confidence.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Deep Dive Into Weaponized Malicious SVG Files
Good read and research on malicious SVG file analysis and how it's weaponized by Adam Paulina @Binary_Defense https://t.co/65gf6f2XNn #BinaryDefense
By Dave Kennedy
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Lop Nor 2.7‑magnitude Test Yields Mere
A magnitude of Mb=2.7 corresponds to about 18 tons of yield at China's Lop Nor test site. If the explosion was fully decoupled that would correspond to about 400-700 tons of TNT. Again, these are very small events, relatively...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 17, 2026
U.S. Buildup Highlights Iran’s Ignored Missile Threat
Great analysis by @brett_mcgurk U.S. military forces continue to conduct build up and readiness to provide the President with the most options, Islamic Regime in Iran not taking the military threat seriously, and Iran's missile program should definitely be included...
By John Spencer
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Ukraine Deploys Drone‑Delivered Swedish 155mm Smart Shells
Ukraine's New Weapon: Dropping Swedish 155mm Smart Shells from Drones https://t.co/T0uD6pHKW8 There has been a technical and tactical shift in the Ukrainian conflict, where heavy-lift unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been adapted to deliver 155mm ordnance, including the sophisticated Swedish-designed 155...
By John Spencer
Social•Feb 17, 2026
U.S. Unready for Potential GPS Attack, Warns Former NSA Chief
"America is dangerously unprepared for a GPS attack," Adm. Michael Rogers, U.S. Navy (ret.), former commander of the U.S. Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency. https://t.co/hYWXOZoxEZ
By John Spencer
Social•Feb 16, 2026
F-16 Scramble Finds Balloons, Not UFOs Over Nevada
F-16s Find Balloons, Not UFOs, After Sunday Scramble: NORAD Alert F-16s out of California scrambled to hunt down mysterious targets over Nevada and California twice on Sunday. Story: https://t.co/oQhqC5oK7H
By Tyler Rogoway
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Pentagon Reverse‑engineers GBU‑57 Using ATACMS Tech to Break Contractor Lock‑
New GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator Parts Reverse Engineered From ATACMS Ballistic Missile Tech Replacing GBU-57s dropped on Iran highlights issues that come from being locked into a single contractor, a which the Pentagon is trying to change. Story: https://t.co/P7JyrN8lCZ
By Tyler Rogoway
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Possible China Nuclear Test Detected, Seismology Needed
I wonder if this event is the alleged China nuclear test: 22 June 2020/0 depth/41.27, 90.75/~150 km from the test site, just outside error ellipse. The P/S amplitude ratio might show if it was an explosion--need a real seismologist for...
By Jeffrey Lewis
Social•Feb 16, 2026
EU
AT @MunichSecConf, French minister says @defis_eu 2028-34 space budget to be ~ EUR 40B, less than Commission's 50B target; German minister says space and defense ministries now trade personnel as the missions are inseparable. @DLR_SpaceAgency @CNES.https://t.co/BjLtUUtIdc https://t.co/fQXynwvDtW
By Peter B. de Selding
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Space’s Role Crucial as Europe Boosts Defense
Great weekend at @MunSecConf. The world is in transition, and it’s clear Space is incredibly relevant. I met with leaders incl @NATO_SACT and @DavidMcGuinty, and was inspired by remarks from @ZelenskyyUa, @vonderleyen, @Keir_Starmer and others on the critical need for...
By Will Marshall
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Micro Reactors on C‑17 Promise Off‑grid Power
This Is A Nuclear Reactor Packed Into A C-17 Globemaster III Micro nuclear reactors are being seen as a way to get critical bases off the grid, but they could also have a major impact on civilian energy production. Story: https://t.co/KrommLR43d
By Tyler Rogoway
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Modern Bluetooth Pacemakers Continuously Broadcast When Disconnected
Regarding this, there was a couple questions on does the pacemaker continue to advertise - most BLE implantable devices go into a sleep type mode. In this case, we are lucky - it does not. We know based on law enforcement...
By Dave Kennedy
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
By Peter Zeihan
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Russia Likely to Sustain Ukraine War Until 2026
“Western officials believe that it’s probable that Russia can sustain its combat operations in Ukraine throughout 2026 as a result of its recruitment campaigns, industrial production and support from other nations like China.” https://t.co/bEORSYEWB0 https://t.co/ZjQFz8rmm1
By Rob Lee
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Valentine's Day Nukesletter Warns of Compute Collapse in War
New Nukesletter out this Valentine's Day: on the cheery topic of compute discontinuities that might emerge from intense great power war (including nuclear war). https://t.co/0NS7f79VRz
By Ankit Panda
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Cognitive Warfare Already Undermining Western Alliances and Institutions
Cognitive warfare isn’t coming—it’s here. Some Western political leaders are being used to weaken alliances, disrupt decision-making, and fragment institutions. Swipe to see the key predictions, and visit davidmurrin.co.uk for the full analysis. #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #Russia #China #Strategy
By David Murrin
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Iran Deploys Phone Tracking, Threatens Starlink Users
Iran Turns to Digital Surveillance Tools to Track Down Protesters @nytimes https://t.co/7JUt5gcTW3 Iran's government most likely tracked the protesters through location data emitting from their phones, researchers later concluded. The move was part of a new phase by the authorities to...
By John Spencer
Social•Feb 14, 2026
UAVs Take Down Russian Pantsir‑S1 Air Defenses, 2025
Video from SBU Alpha showing UAV strikes on Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems from 2025. https://t.co/JJ7SBvXmqz https://t.co/ml6Dr2qQlQ
By Rob Lee
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Pentagon Deploys Anthropic’s Claude in Maduro Capture
“Anthropic’s artificial-intelligence tool Claude was used in the U.S. military’s operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, highlighting how AI models are gaining traction in the Pentagon, according to people familiar with the matter… The deployment of Claude occurred through...
By Rob Lee
Social•Feb 14, 2026
GE Aerospace Unveils Sustainable Fan Tech and Fighter
At the GE Aerospace booth during the Singapore Airshow 2026, it was more than just engines on display. From the CFM RISE Program’s open fan concept pointing to the future of sustainable propulsion, to the F110 engine that powers fighter fleets...
By Bilqis Bahari
Social•Feb 13, 2026
USAF Considers Mini‑Missiles to Defend Tankers
Mini Missiles Used To Shoot Down Incoming Missiles Eyed For USAF Tanker Fleet Tankers are increasingly vulnerable as enemy long-range missiles evolve, leading the USAF to explore 'hard kill' solutions. Story: https://t.co/B429nwNjht
By Tyler Rogoway
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Admiral Warns Extending Ford Deployment Risks Maintenance, Crew Strain
Navy’s Top Admiral Previously Said He Would “Push Back” Against Extending USS Gerald R. Ford’s Deployment The admiral said keeping the carrier, which was just sent to the Middle East, at sea could result in big maintenance repercussions & crew strain. https://t.co/ae4GE8qeU3
By Tyler Rogoway
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Rabois Predicts Trump May Block China's Nvidia Chip Access
Here's @rabois saying he thinks the Trump administration may ultimately reverse course on letting China get access to Nvidia's best chips https://t.co/XImO09oRyf
By Eric Newcomer
Social•Feb 13, 2026
China's Expedition Cloud Trains Hackers on Replica Critical Networks
Leaked files detail a training platform called "Expedition Cloud" that is designed to allow China's hackers to practice hacking critical infrastructure of China’s opponents in South China Sea and Indochina region using replicas of those networks https://t.co/jbJhbj9JRi
By Kim Zetter
Social•Feb 13, 2026
US Should Avoid Iran Strike During Ramadan, Preserve Allies
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Cross‑platform Tool Scans Bluetooth, Resolves Private Addresses
Just released a new tool that scans for Bluetooth devices including Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) devices. It will scan for all, filtered by MAC, or if you have the Identity Resolving Keys (IRK), can be used to determine the Resolvable...
By Dave Kennedy
Social•Feb 13, 2026
DoD China List Document Removed From Federal Register
Just in on DoD China List: (Bloomberg) -- Document that previously listed Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, Huawei, Nio, TP-Link among companies connected to the Chinese military is no longer available in the Federal Register.
By Tony Capaccio
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Ford CSG Shift Highlights Readiness Tradeoffs in Carrier Strategy
Before news broke that the Ford CSG was moving from the Caribbean to the Middle East, we were already talking carrier chess on @BloombergTV. I laid out for @JMathieuReports & @kaileyleinz what this deployment really means for readiness and the...
By Becca Wasser
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Starlink Shutdown Blinds Russian Drones and Command Posts
“The shutdown didn’t only reduce Russian drone strikes. On the front lines, it also partially blinded Russian command posts and drone crews that relied on Starlink for communication, livestreams and more-precise control of assaults as commanders got real-time footage of...
By Franz‑Stefan Gady
Social•Feb 13, 2026
NATO Remains Vital Amid Transatlantic Trust Crisis
for all the criticism and hand wringing, nato continues to serve a useful role for all members and nobody is trying to leave it or replace it. there’s a crisis of trust in the transatlantic relationship. but not an existential...
By Ian Bremmer
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Vulcan Centaur Reaches Orbit Despite Booster Glitch
LAUNCH at 0922 UTC Feb 12 of a Vulcan Centaur from Canaveral with the Space Force's GSSAP 7 and 8 satellites, and possibly other payloads. One of the GEM 63XL solid boosters malfunctioned but the vehicle was reportedly able to reach...
By Jonathan McDowell
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Space Systems Command Confirms Two GSSAPs on USSF‑87
Space Systems Command says there were two GSSAPs on USSF-87. This is their response to my question on the matter last month. https://t.co/IqQ6LR4m9P
By Stephen Clark
Social•Feb 13, 2026
From Board Exit to AI‑Powered Gun Detection Revolution
After 13 years, I stepped down from the Board of $EVLV today. In 2011, Mike Ellenbogen and Anil Chitkara became Entrepreneurs-in-Residence at General Catalyst in Boston. We spent nearly two years exploring incubation ideas together. Then the world shifted. 2012 - Sandy Hook. 2013...
By Bilal Zuberi
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Rosgvardia Gains Independent General Staff, Not Subordinated
Seeing content here on X that the Russians subordinated Rosgvardia to the General Staff of the military. That is incorrect. The decree expands the HQ staff of Rosgvardia and gives it its own general staff structure. Zolotov remains the head....
By Dara Massicot