Britain Ignored Ukraine Warning, Showing Strategic Failure
And this is the consequence. The warnings were there. Ukraine should have been a strategic wake-up call. Instead of treating it as a turning point, Britain largely carried on as normal. That’s not just a defence issue. That’s a political failure. And it raises a bigger question: Does Britain still think strategically at all? More on the website. #UKPolitics #Britain #Starmer #Defence #Strategy
Low Munitions Make Iran Ground Invasion Unlikely (<5%)
A U.S. ground invasion of Iran @Mark4XX ? Low munitions weakens air war, but it makes a ground invasion even less attractive, not more. It forces narrower, slower, more indirect strategies—not a leap to boots on the ground. I put the probability...
Blockade Debate Is Theater, Aiding Iran's Oil Disruption
The blockade debate is theater. It's not working & actually helps Iran's goal to disrupt oil flows. For the U.S., the blockade saves face. Iran wants to expose the truth. The blockade itself isn’t issue—it’s the optics.
Pentagon's Ammo Shortage Limits Trump's Options, Fuels Iran Threat
The Pentagon warned Trump that US munitions were low before the strikes on Iran. Now they're at critical levels approaching depletion. Iran knows this. Trump's escalation options are narrow. That opens the door to truly terrifying alternatives. #Iran #Geopolitics #Hormuz #Strategy
US Seizure Signals Broken Order, Looming Global Conflict
The US seizing an Iranian tanker near Sri Lanka is a precedent @MarioNawfal But we’re past “precedents.” The old order is broken. Some kind of world war is developing. That's terrifying but let's start looking at what's happening with ruthless honesty. #Geopolitics #Shipping...
Proposed Deal Links Israeli Restraint to Nuclear Freeze
Deal still stands. 1. Restrain the Israelis and their Greater Israel project. 2. Dual toll the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Pull military assets from the region in exchange for nuclear cessation. 4. Unfreeze assets gradually with USD as reserve asset for regional rebuild. https://t.co/6ATJSdNMM3
China Cyber‑spies Western Defense Firms, Dutch Intel Warns
China’s Cyberspying Targets Western Defense Industry, Dutch Intel Chief Says—Military intelligence report warns China poses a growing threat, alongside Russia @kimmackrael @DanMichaelsWSJ https://t.co/cu728ldZmp https://t.co/cu728ldZmp
US Navy Deprioritizes Strait of Hormuz Amid Conference Silence
Day 2 synopsis from the largest Naval conference in America. Nobody cares about Iran. Practically none of the speakers mentioned it. A few hallway conversations, but not many. This confirms my hypothesis that the US Navy is in no rush to reopen...
Rescue Mission Served as Cover for Secret Operation
An update on the rescue operation of the two American aviators, and why neither aircrew or details of the operation have been made public. This is a theory, based on my background in intelligence and my current experience embedding with...
Redefine the Thing, Create a Whole New Category
Redefining what a thing is can create an entirely new category of thing. In 1945, Soviet schoolchildren gifted the US Ambassador a wooden Great Seal. It hung in his Moscow office for 7 years. It contained a listening device with no battery,...
U.S.
USS Spruance Blasting A Ship With Its Deck Gun Is A First In Nearly Four Decades The Navy hasn't struck another ship in anger with its deck gun since 1988. https://t.co/zTsOCZA4W4
267 F‑15EX Jets Needed: Correcting The
F-15EX buy now explodes to 267 jets. This is the right call. The original plan made no sense and since writing the article below, that has slowly been corrected. Now they are coming to terms with a USAF without F-15E...
Conflicting Claims Reveal Doubt Over Near-Term Peace
🇺🇸 Trump: Ceasefire extended, peace talks coming 🇮🇷 Iran: "Buying time for a surprise attack" + Hormuz stays shut Who do you think is lying? I'm not convinced peace is close. Still sell-the-rally over buy-the-dip?! $SPY $QQQ $USO $XOM $CVX $VIX $DJIA https://t.co/wzI3OltwU5
Air Force Seeks Funding for E‑7 Wedgetail Despite Budget Gap
Despite no funding in Pentagon's fiscal 2027 request, the Air Force is "evaluating options to resource the E-7 program" to finish the Wedgetail prototypes and continue EMD. https://t.co/mD86r3Qjmj
X‑BAT VTOL Fighter Gains F‑16 Thrust Vector Nozzle
X-BAT Autonomous VTOL ‘Fighter’ Looks Dramatically Different Development of X-BAT is accelerating, including the use of a thrust vectoring nozzle from an experimental F-16 that was borrowed "Indiana Jones style." Latest on X-BAT: https://t.co/iqlLGaor38
Ceasefire Extension Likely as US‑Iran Talks Stall
I joined @BBC prior to the delay in US-Iran talks. My upside scenario was an extension of the ceasefire because both sides are too far apart for a lasting deal and the alternative — resumed strikes and further escalation —...
AI-Driven Research Will Shrink Attackers' Zero‑Day Arsenal
Sunlight seen through the storm. Mozilla security researchers say that after this wave of AI-augmented vuln discovery and exploitation, we'll reach a new equilibrium in which there are *fewer* vulns being used by attackers. “The zero-days are numbered”—https://t.co/MM5SNBJsjD
Trump Extends Ceasefire, Keeps Blockade Until Proposal
🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST POSTED THIS: "I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions...
Navy to Equip Arleigh Burke Destroyers with 405 PAC‑3 Missiles
Patriot PAC-3 Missiles To Arm Navy Arleigh Burke Class Destroyers The Navy has awarded a contract to integrate PAC-3 MSE with the Aegis Combat System and wants to buy 405 of the missiles in Fiscal Year 2027. https://t.co/gWmaSr7Nao
Europe Must Forge Military Ties with Japan, Korea, India
Yes. Europe needs to get closer to Japan (and Korea) militarily and geopolitically. As does India.
Trump’s Truce Extension Exposes U.S. Weakness Amid Iran Blockade
So let me get this straight: Iran not only refuses further negotiations, it doesn't even bother to show up, is keeping the Strait of Hormuz blocked -- and Donald Trump, after all the bravado, threats of extermination, and chest-thumping, just...
From Vance's Trip Cancelled to Iran Ceasefire in Minutes
We went from reports of Vance's trip cancellation to an #Iran ceasefire extension in roughly 20 minutes...
Blockade Persists: No War, No Peace, No Shipments
Trump: I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted. - So: No war No peace No ships No oil, LNG, fertilizer, or...
Balancing Economic Scale with Countering Rival Coercion
Thoughtful essay from @edwardfishman on how to "preserve the scale modern economies require while neutralizing the coercive power of rivals such as China and Russia" https://t.co/1cxfvxMWWB
Trump Extends Ceasefire, Maintains Military Blockade
Closing Bell TACOs President Trump extends ceasefire until Iran proposal is submitted; U.S. military will continue blockade
Trump Extends Ceasefire, Giving Iran Time for Unity
THIS JUST IN: Trump extends the ceasefire to allow more time for a fractured leadership in #Iran to come up with a unified proposal
Iran Blames US for Coordinated Network Shutdowns
Iranian media is reporting that networking infrastructure suffered coordinated shutdowns, and blames the US. https://t.co/Gil1Z55HhM
Trump’s War Tactics Alienate Key Asian Allies
My take on the Trump's war strategy on @MarioNawfal: "Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, and India are under the gun. The US-Israeli war has imposed massive costs on them. Now they are pivoting away from the US." TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW...
France Faces €6 Billion Cost From US‑Israeli Iran War
As reported by the respected French newspaper Le Monde, French PM Lecornu announced that the US-Israeli war in Iran will cost France AT LEAST €6 BILLION. FRANCE SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/00rdeVnADi
Trump Battleship Contracts Awarded, Builders Still Unknown
On Trump Battleship, buried in just-released Navy budget books: Award of 1st contract: 8/28/; 2nd ship - 8/30; 3rd ship 8/31. Deliveries projected for 8/36, 8/38 8/39. The builders are TBD.
Aged Submarine, Vintage Weapon Sink Modern Corvette
A 36 year old sub sank a 10 year old corvette with a 54 year old weapon (16 years for latest block)
Pentagon Requests $75B for Drones, Counter‑Drone Efforts
The Pentagon’s largest-ever budget request earmarks $75 billion for drones and technologies to counter them, mainly for a massive increase for a little-known office working with US commandos, according to defense officials
Iran's Oil Stockpile Bypasses US Blockade, Sales to China Persist
My take w/ @WallStBullion on the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: "Iran has ~180m barrels of oil floating outside the Strait. Even with the US blockade, revenue from oil sales will keep flowing into Iran. Iran will be able...
Europe Still Buying U.S. Defense Amid Domestic‑Buy Talk
Interesting detail from today’s Northrop Grumman Q1 earnings call re. European demand. Despite political messaging in Europe about buying domestically and reducing reliance on U.S. suppliers, Northrop made clear that European customers remain highly engaged buyers of American systems.
Netanyahu's Instability Raises Nuclear Risks, Peace Deal Needed
Netanyahu is as whacked out as Trump. It's scary he has nuclear weapons. Maybe he can be forced to give them up in a peace deal.
US Aerospace Output Jumps 28% on Soaring Demand
JUST IN: US aerospace & transport output rose 28% in 2025 with rising demand for planes, defense, and space tech
U.S. Navy Boards Sanctioned Oil Tanker Safely in Indian Ocean
U.S. forces board a sanctioned oil tanker 'without incident' in the Indian Ocean Map form @Kpler https://t.co/jqhC9bZpvJ
Integrate Available Robotics Into Realistic Soldier Training
I love to see soldiers conducting hard realistic training. I don't love seeing the lack of any robotics (fully available today) in tasks like the soldier in the open throwing the grappling hook to clear the wire obstacle. I also...
Broken 1994 Guarantees Undermine Trust in Global Commitments
As I noted when we failed to do jack about Russia taking Crimea. Why should anyone trust us -- or other nations thar signed those guarantees in '94?
US‑Iran Talks Stall Unless Blockade Is Lifted
Looks like US-Iran talks will no go forward unless the US lifts its blockade. So what happens: - US lifts blockade to urge talks forward - Pass deadline and military actions taken - Nothing changes and we pass deadline with no escalations
Israel Safer Now as Regional Threats Stand Isolated
"Is Israel Safer Today?" my latest @MirYamInstitute @BenAnthony1948 https://t.co/HvVeRcKC9c Is Israel safer today, from a national security standpoint, than it was on October 6, 2023? The answer is yes. Hezbollah is alone in Lebanon. Hamas is alone in Gaza. The Houthis are...
Northrop Asserts It Can Deliver F/A-XX Despite Doubts
Northrop Defends Ability To Build F/A-XX 6th Gen Naval Fighters If Selected The Navy's top officer said yesterday that an unnamed contractor "really can’t deliver" on F/A-XX "in the timeframe we need it." https://t.co/Ymyixv96ds
US Manufacturing Set for Historic Surge Amid Defense Boom
This is massive for US manufacturing segment, increasing procurement of weapons by 85%. Defense production is already 8% of US manufacturing, this increase would represent one of the biggest increases in history. Combine this with AI buildout, energy production and infrastructure...
Iran Talks Failure Could Spike US Missile Stockpiles
Talked with the great @tomkeene and @ptsweeney on Surveillance @BloombergRadio about US-Iran negotiations, the prospect of more strikes and a continued blockade if the talks fail, and the implications for US missile stockpiles and defense spending. https://t.co/7ACooMZIMD
GPS III SV10 Enters 388×20201 Km Transfer Orbit
GPS III SV10 tracked in a 388 x 20201 km x 55.0 deg transfer orbit following successful launch on Falcon 9 from Canaveral at 0653 UTC
Japan Ends Arms Export Ban Amid Rising China Threat
Japan Lifts Ban on Arms Exports—The decision is part of a broader shift by Japan to beef up its defense capabilities in response to China’s growing military might and U.S. demands that allies take more responsibility for their own security. @wsj_douglasj https://t.co/2tsDsLkhKl
Iran's Hormuz Threat Lacks Leverage without Clear Economic Damage
If Iran wants its future threats to re-close the Strait of Hormuz to be seen as serious leverage vs a future US administration, it's going to be tricky for Tehran to reopen the Strait before we see more acute—and truly...
Vance Delay Extends Ceasefire Talks, Pressures Trump
more delays on vp vance traveling to islamabad. but negotiations on core issues still proceeding, just pushes trump on extending out (or not breaching) ceasefire.
Iran's Move Forces US to Rethink Peace Negotiations
Holy crap on a cracker. If Iran does this, then what does the US do? And peace negotiations?
Iran-US Ceasefire Set to End April 22
The current ceasefire in the Iran/US conflict is set to expire on Wednesday, April 22, 2026 at approximately 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (ET) on Wednesday.