Iran's Power Peaked; No Incentive for Compromise
The problem is that Iran will never be more powerful than it is today @dshephard What’s the incentive to take anything less (especially since it doesn’t care about the Iranian people) ?
War Pushes Gulf States to Tighten US Security Ties
This is what @gbrew24 said on Odd Lots, that ultimately, as a result of this war, the Gulf states will have no choice but to deepen their security links to the US.
Canada’s
Is the Royal Canadian “navy” going to send three staff officers to help with paperwork like they did to reopen the Red Sea? Or can they not even manage that anymore?
Bombing Iran's Power Grid Is a Terrible Idea
My response to Trump’s threat to bomb Iran’s electric grid is simple: Don’t. My latest. Link is below. https://t.co/kLs8lfC8Or
Patriot Missile Identified as Cause of Sitra Explosion
The team (@sam_lair, @DuitsmanMS, others) spent the last few weeks examining this video showing a U.S. Patriot launch in Bahrain. We're confident this interceptor was involved in the explosion over Sitra that damaged 60 residences and injured more than...
Russia and China Unite as the West Fragments
In which Stubb states reality ... So to those who dream of a "reverse Nixon," here's the reality of a "reverse 'reverse Nixon'," where Russia and China largely hang together despite their points of difference and tension while the West...
Kids Find Base Coordinates, Iran Gets Targeting Data
This is a joke…. right? My twelve year old could find the coordinates of every major US military base. You don’t even need GPS to hit them. This is why it’s ridiculous the Army moved prepositioned supply ashore. We can take out...
White House Must Reopen Strait of Hormuz Quickly
"To expect it to cave in today... ignores past lessons. And unlike the Islamic Republic, the White House doesn’t have the benefit of time. It needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at worst, weeks." - @JavierBlas...
US Would Replenish Israel's Bomb Supplies, Exposing Double Standards
If Israel were doing this it would get resupplied by the United States for the bombs it used.
Massive Bets on US Iran Invasion Raise Ethical Concerns
Polymarket: 60% chance that the US will have troops on the ground in Iran by the end of April. >$22 million wagered on this so far. I don't think it should be legal to "bet" on something like this - you're creating...
Japan’s Energy Dependence Exposes Vulnerability Without US Consent
Sad but true: “Japan can’t cut a deal with Iran without U.S. approval” And that’s why Japanese are protesting now. Energy insecurity in Japan can turn food insecurity can trigger events that US equity, bond, currency market are not pricing in. And Trump’s...
Iran Vows Retaliation Against US Energy, IT, Desalination Facilities
It’s the desalination plants, stupid. — Iran said that if its energy infrastructure is targeted, it will strike back at energy, IT and desalination facilities belonging to the United States and its allies in the region. https://t.co/gAFL9FJeZ2
China’s Rare Earth Dominance Fuels Global Mineral War
China's Rare Earth Weapon: Inside the "Mineral War" with Tomasz Nadrowski. Read more and sign up to my newsletter here: https://t.co/uDfSXat1Xl https://t.co/MXFQAofK9T
Bombing Civilian Power Plants Isn’t a Viable AI Solution
All the AI in the world and your operational solutions to open Hormuz is to bomb civilian power plants? @TheStalwart
Trump’s Actions Erode US Hegemony and Military Supply
Let’s unpack this: US exceptionalism/hegemony is based on our “security guarantees” which Trump clearly voided for our Gulf Arab allies when he and Netanyahu started a war on Iran (and Lebanon). And Trump also started a trade war with China that extracts,...
UK IAMD Funding Equals One THAAD, Threat Gap Widens
Given UK air & missile defence IAMD was only allocated £1bn in SDR & a SINGLE THAAD battery is roughly about the same - vast gap between threats & funding. MRBM strikes perhaps lowest risk, but most challenging &...
Modern Tech Enables Simultaneous, Precise Targeting of Leadership
“Leadership targeting has existed throughout history. What is new is simultaneity and precision. Entire layers of political and military leadership can now be targeted nearly at once.“ my latest @nypost https://t.co/fpqRfQlLxD
Naval Ship Shortage Roots Predate Trump, Not Just His Fault
“Yes we have fewer ships. Well we also have fewer horses and bayonets.” Everyone’s blaming Trump for not having enough Navy ships available to escort supertankers. But ask the real question: did this hull shortage start with Trump?
Bombing Iran's Plants Equals De Facto Embargo, Says Analyst
If the US bombs Iran's power plants, there's no power to fill up oil tankers, so it's an embargo. Same with taking Kharg Island by force. Iran will stop exporting oil, so it's an embargo. Much better to do an...
Iran Conflict May Signal US‑China Global Showdown
This is a very interesting if true Many analysts have suggested that the War against Iran is actually a war against China This would support the point that 21st century will either remain American or become Chinese which would be a...
California's Anti‑refinery Stance Threatens Pacific Military Fuel Security
I’ve been accused of being too soft on @SecWar. Fine. Problem is his performance has been exceptional. But here’s where I’m livid: no serious DoW pressure on Newsom and the California Coastal Commission which are both getting massive support from China. Oil...
Iran Risk Unpriced, Trump‑Netanyahu May Ignite Nuclear War
Iran risk is still not priced in. And neither is Trump-Netanyahu’s potentially diabolical reaction: US-Israel nuclear war
C
The Intelligence: The C5i Data Pivot, the 33% Interceptor Burn, and the "Vera Rubin" Reality https://t.co/32gFfl0dFl
U.S. Leaders Debate China Without Ever Visiting
Washington Is Flying Blind on China Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China. Impacts quality of the debate clearly... https://t.co/ghNp4u7uqt
Navy Ship Costs Overstated; Protects $50B Cargo
For year the NYTimes has written hit pieces on the “ballooning cost” of Navy warships. It was a smoke screen to coverup fraud by making people think the defense budget was the cause of the debt. The truth: A $3B DDG pales...
Oil, Rare Earths, and Microchips: Modern Power Weapons
The New Weapons of Global Power Are Oil, Rare Earths and Microchips This is a classic WSJ story, very well executed concept, good insights. Good read. https://t.co/OLjtrroo6Y
Iran's Losses Yield a Harder, Not Defeated, Adversary
Iran War: A Balanced View I did a pro-con eval of views by @ilangoldenberg & @zriboua Iran is losing militarily & economically while still winning by denying the U.S. & Israel a clean strategic success. We may be getting a weaker but...
Pentagon Labels Anthropic Risky, yet Negotiations Near Resolution
“March 4 — the day after the Pentagon formally finalized its supply-chain risk designation against Anthropic — Under Secretary Michael emailed Amodei to say the two sides were “very close” on the two issues the government now cites as evidence...
Targeting Iran's Power Plants Could Irreversibly Destroy Middle East Infrastructure
DUBAI, March 22 (Reuters) - Critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Middle East could be "irreversibly destroyed" should Iranian power plants be targeted, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments posted on X on Sunday.
Trump, Iran Threaten Gulf Energy Targets, Raising Global Crisis Risks
TEL AVIV/JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran threatened to escalate their war by attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, a potential widening of hostilities which could deepen a regional crisis and add to concerns in...
Iran Vows to Strike Regional Energy Infrastructure After Trump Ultimatum
Iran responds to Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum: “… the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed…”
He Shattered Hopes of Ending Middle East Wars
“All of these options basically suck,” said Goldenberg. But one thing is certain: “He has definitely destroyed the concept that he’s going to be the guy who gets us out of Middle East wars.” https://t.co/MknkHw4Pxz
Trump's Confusion Amid U.S. Tough Iran Crossroads
Trump really doesn’t know what he is doing Trump at a crossroads as US weighs tough options in Iran https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyxv87zwwpo
Iran Rakes $2.5B From Oil Amid War
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
Rumors Suggest Israel's Iron Dome May Have Been Breached
So is he going to back off or go harder? Rumours that Israel’s Iron Dome has been breached https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ce35wke27ynt
Iran Says only Enemy Vessels Barred From Hormuz
Iran to the International Maritime Organization: All ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz except for "enemy" ships
Considering New Polls on the Strait of Hormuz
It feels like I should run a bunch of polls like this again, but about the Strait of Hormuz.
Jerusalem Drives Escalation, Trump’s Words Irrelevant
Yesterday, Trump said: "we consider winding down our great Military efforts." But today, Israeli Defense Minister Katz said: "the intensity of [the joint] attacks ... against [Iran]... will increase significantly." FORGET WHAT TRUMP SAYS, THE ORDERS COME FROM JERUSALEM. https://t.co/PChGC7kGAg
Two Unreported MDA Suborbital Launches Occurred in March
There were apparently two MDA suborbital target missile launches from Wallops on Mar 17 and 19 that weren't reported at the time: https://t.co/wDoCCKpEF4
US Eyes Iran Talks, War Likely Persists Weeks
This could be the beginning of the end. But feels tentative. 👉Axios reports the Trump administration is "game-planning" for potential negotiations with Iran. ❗️BUT expect the conflict to continue for at least another 2-3 weeks. Important -- It's an exploratory stage planning for...
Opening Hormuz Won’t Instantly Resolve Iran‑Trump Tensions
If Iran—facing threats from President Trump—now announces that the Strait of Hormuz is OPEN, would that immediately end the crisis and get ships moving through it again? Why or why not?
Iran Likely Fired Ballistic Missile at Israel, Not Apocalyptic Prophecy
Iran may have struck Israel with a ballistic missile The rest—“end times,” “no one will sleep,” “buckle up”— is apocalyptic BS @NowTheEndBegins Treat the event seriously. Ignore the theatrical theology. #IranWar #Israel #Media #Geopolitics #Disinformation
Military-Economic Gap Delays Hormuz Response, Threatening Trade
These comments by former @CENTCOM commander General Votel highlights a disconnect between the military and economic strategy regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on shipping and the Strait were expected. When it comes to escorts, General Votel acknowledged that it can...
Power Grid Strike Would Spark Humanitarian Disaster, Not Clean Victory
Taking down Iran’s power grid would not be a clean military move, writes @ctindale t would hit water, refineries, hospitals, telecoms, transit, and industry all at once. That may weaken the state. It would also risk humanitarian collapse and damage that lasts...
Trump Can’t Count on TACO Amid Iran Hormuz Threat
TACO is not an option for Trump, writes @biancoresearch He can't leave Iran in control of Hormuz Crude won’t calm down and markets won’t recover. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Trump #Geopolitics #Macro #MiddleEast
America Must Lead AI to Safeguard National Security
the US relies on commercial AI models for the department of war. there is no AI manhattan project. this means we must ensure US AI models are the best in the world -- our national security depends on it
Trump's Iran Ultimatum Threatens Supply Chain Stability
Trump gives Iran a 48 hour ultimatum and warning. Iran replies. Will things get worse? Supply of supply chains.
Modi’s Calm Highlights India’s Strategic Autonomy Advantage
While the US and Israel escalate, Modi plays it cool. INDIA'S STRATEGIC AUTONOMY = A WINNING HAND. https://t.co/T87Vj30GN9
Submarine Warfare: Blind, Lethal Cat‑and‑mouse in Darkness
Sub v Sub ASW as described by a submariner friend: "Imagine you are in a pitch black warehouse with a knife. There may or may not be another person in that warehouse with a knife. Good luck."
Iran Vows Retaliation Against US Energy and Tech Assets
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central HQ Spokesperson: “If Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy infrastructure, information technology systems, and desalination facilities belonging to the United States and the regime in the region will be targeted.”