Defense Social Media and Updates

Mearsheimer Calls Trump's War a Strategic Disaster
SocialMar 22, 2026

Mearsheimer Calls Trump's War a Strategic Disaster

John Mearsheimer: Trump's War Is STRATEGIC DISASTER W/ No End In Sight https://t.co/xK8vUAAkSY via @YouTube

By Harold (Hal) Good
U.S. Allies Expose Iran's Deception on Nukes, Miss
SocialMar 22, 2026

U.S. Allies Expose Iran's Deception on Nukes, Miss

Iran lied. About uranium. About missiles. About proxies. American + allied defense is truth serum

By Josh Wolfe
Iran War Costs Will Eclipse Biden’s Ukraine Loan
SocialMar 22, 2026

Iran War Costs Will Eclipse Biden’s Ukraine Loan

The hard truth: the Iran war will dwarf the cost of Biden *loaning* Ukraine weapons, and having @ZelenskyyUa pay us back in the rare earths (a deal that Trump deftly negotiated) Looks like $200b at a minimum

By Jason Calacanis
Trump Threatens Iranian Power Plants over Hormuz Closure
SocialMar 22, 2026

Trump Threatens Iranian Power Plants over Hormuz Closure

If Hormuz isn’t open in 48 hours Trump says he’ll start hitting Iranian power plants. https://t.co/HQZe2Sax7l

By Rory Johnston
Trump Threatens Iran Power Plants over Hormuz Closure
SocialMar 22, 2026

Trump Threatens Iran Power Plants over Hormuz Closure

President Trump threatened to attack Iran’s power plants if the country didn’t swiftly open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial ship traffic (The remarks mark a shift in tone since Trump on Friday said the US was considering “winding down” military...

By Stephen Stapczynski
US Ultimatum on Hormuz Contradicts Its Own Disuse
SocialMar 22, 2026

US Ultimatum on Hormuz Contradicts Its Own Disuse

From almost done, followed by close to winding down -- to a 48-hours ultimatum to Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz that the US doesn't use, and in any case, it would be very easy to re-open even by...

By Javier Blas
Trump Demands Iran Open Hormuz Strait in 48 Hours
SocialMar 21, 2026

Trump Demands Iran Open Hormuz Strait in 48 Hours

TRUMP GIVES IRAN 48 HOURS TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ=== this ain't no tariffs deadline

By Ashraf Laidi
Decapitation Strikes Fail; Cumulative Strategy Needed
SocialMar 21, 2026

Decapitation Strikes Fail; Cumulative Strategy Needed

“Decapitation strikes don’t work,” they say. “The strategy isn’t working,” they say after 5, 10, or 20 days. Strategic effects are cumulative. Impatience is not analysis. Let's review just what Israel has stuck in Iran according to @IDF 🧵

By John Spencer
Three‑Week Strait of Hormuz Update: Ship Status, Transits, Escorts
SocialMar 21, 2026

Three‑Week Strait of Hormuz Update: Ship Status, Transits, Escorts

Strait of Hormuz 3-Week Recap | What is the Status of the Ships, Transits and Escort Mission? Video: https://t.co/UqZWLMlwVT https://t.co/k0LjjVKtXf

By Sal Mercogliano
China No Fixed Taiwan Timeline, No 2027 Invasion Plan
SocialMar 21, 2026

China No Fixed Taiwan Timeline, No 2027 Invasion Plan

The US intelligence community now assesses that China has no fixed timeline for unification with Taiwan and that no invasion of Taiwan is planned for 2027. I'm no China expert but this dovetails with how I see Xi and the upside...

By Ramez Naam
Hormuz Stayed Open During Iran War, US Narrative Persists
SocialMar 21, 2026

Hormuz Stayed Open During Iran War, US Narrative Persists

The Strait of Hormuz saw no disruptions—even during the intense 12-day war with Iran last June—yet the Trump administration's National Security Strategy, released last November, still states: 👉"America will always have core interests in ensuring that Gulf energy supplies do not...

By Anas Alhajji
Hegseth's $200B Iran War Request Dwarfs ACA Subsidies
SocialMar 21, 2026

Hegseth's $200B Iran War Request Dwarfs ACA Subsidies

We can think of Hegseth's $200 billion supplemental military request for his Iran war as the cost to taxpayers of pulling out of the agreement on nuclear weapons negotiated by Obama

By Dean Baker
Iranian Missile Evades Israeli Defenses, Hits Arad
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iranian Missile Evades Israeli Defenses, Hits Arad

Israeli media reporting a mass casualty event in the city of Arad after missile defence systems failed to intercept an Iranian ballistic missile. Reports suggest that Iran used a new type of ballistic missile that can evade the Air Defence...

By Kudzai Mutisi
Trump’s Claim: Iran Missiles Neutralized—Reality Says Otherwise
SocialMar 21, 2026

Trump’s Claim: Iran Missiles Neutralized—Reality Says Otherwise

Don't worry, Trump said the U.S. knocked pout 100% of Iran's missile capabilities. Are you calling Trump a liar?

By Dean Baker
Want
SocialMar 21, 2026

Want

I want a HondaJet carrier borne ASW aircraft and no I don't care how bad of an idea that is.

By Nathan Strang
Iran's Terrain Makes Any U.S. Invasion Prolonged, Perilous
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran's Terrain Makes Any U.S. Invasion Prolonged, Perilous

If U.S. troops invade Iran, it will not be a quick war. It will be one of the most dangerous environments American soldiers have ever faced. People underestimate Iran because they picture open desert. That image is wrong. 1. The terrain is...

By Corporate Reality Check
China Won’t Be the Biggest Loser if Hormuz Closes
SocialMar 21, 2026

China Won’t Be the Biggest Loser if Hormuz Closes

Many commentators on Iran war have seemingly not thought any further ahead than “China is hurt most by Hormuz closing” Below is just one small example of why that view is so wrong 👇

By Luke Gromen
Iran Likely Didn’t Launch Missiles at Diego
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran Likely Didn’t Launch Missiles at Diego

Even more reason to believe Iran did not fire ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia when a) they still haven’t acknowledged it, & b) the genocide chorus all sing the same lyrics again https://t.co/XnCWtECXnc

By Elrond Burrell
Iranian Missiles Strike Tel Aviv, Sparking US Media Criticism
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iranian Missiles Strike Tel Aviv, Sparking US Media Criticism

CNN live coverage showing MULTIPLE Iranian missiles making direct hits in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv … All over TikTok, young Americans are talking about how ADVANCED Iran is yet US media has been feeding them lies. Most are...

By Kudzai Mutisi
Iran Conflict: Endgame or New Beginning Unclear
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran Conflict: Endgame or New Beginning Unclear

Iran War basically done. Or it’s only just beginning. Definitely one of the two… … or neither. https://t.co/nwQPF9aQYG

By Rory Johnston
Trump Declares Victory While Troops Surge to Gulf
SocialMar 21, 2026

Trump Declares Victory While Troops Surge to Gulf

Trump claims that the US has “won” the war, and that Iran is “finished.” IF WE WON THE WAR, WHY ARE WE RUSHING  THOUSANDS OF US TROOPS TO THE GULF? TRUMP = DELUSIONAL. https://t.co/g5aB73R1CU

By Steve Hanke
Trump May Abandon Hormuz Crisis, Leaving Others to Fix
SocialMar 21, 2026

Trump May Abandon Hormuz Crisis, Leaving Others to Fix

Why shouldn't the presumption be that they will just negotiate deals with Iran and accommodate the regime the United States flirted with trying to change? India, Japan, Pakistan, others are already negotiating Hormuz passage directly. Why not presume they will "clean...

By Evan Feigenbaum
Two-Stage IRBM Likely Based on Zoljanah or Qaem
SocialMar 21, 2026

Two-Stage IRBM Likely Based on Zoljanah or Qaem

Two-stage is a helpful bit of data. Now more likely a two-stage IRBM derived from a solid SLV like the Zoljanah or Qaem-100/105.

By Jeffrey Lewis
Ukrainian Strike Leaves Russian Tanker Adrift and Abandoned
SocialMar 21, 2026

Ukrainian Strike Leaves Russian Tanker Adrift and Abandoned

Alleged Ukrainian attack on Russian tanker leaves it abandoned and drifting... Geopolitical Guy | Substack https://bit.ly/4lIlrnH

By Geopolitical Guy
Trump Boasts Complete Elimination of Iran's Missiles
SocialMar 21, 2026

Trump Boasts Complete Elimination of Iran's Missiles

It's especially impressive since Trump told us that we had eliminated 100% of Iran's missiles

By Dean Baker
Moshchun Victory Halted Russian Push on Kyiv
SocialMar 21, 2026

Moshchun Victory Halted Russian Push on Kyiv

Four years ago, in these very days, the fate of Kyiv was finally decided. Here, in the small dacha village of Moshchun on the outskirts of Kyiv, on the banks of the Irpin River, Russian forces suffered a decisive defeat,...

By Illia Ponomarenko
Pentagon Seeks $200B for Iran War, Outspending Ukraine Aid
SocialMar 21, 2026

Pentagon Seeks $200B for Iran War, Outspending Ukraine Aid

The Pentagon is requesting $200 BILLION to fund the Iran war. THIS IS BIG BUCKS. For context, Congress has only approved $188 BILLION to support the US proxy war in Ukraine. WAR = A MASSIVE TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/nlL85D8hEN

By Steve Hanke
Iran's Gains Signal Dangerous Shift in Regional Power
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran's Gains Signal Dangerous Shift in Regional Power

Bunker-busting, but in reverse? And why I warned: Iran Is Winning, Which Is Dangerous https://t.co/5HAmJsOd5H

By Samantha LaDuc
Iran's New Missile Range Threatens European Capitals
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran's New Missile Range Threatens European Capitals

🚨 IRAN COULD NOW HIT LONDON, PARIS OR BERLIN They just launched ballistic missiles at the UK-US base on Diego Garcia (around 4,000 km away). Even though the missiles missed, it shows they have much longer range than previously thought. Big European capitals...

By That Martini Guy
Pentagon Chooses Palantir AI as Core Military System
SocialMar 21, 2026

Pentagon Chooses Palantir AI as Core Military System

Exclusive: Pentagon to adopt Palantir AI as core US military system, memo says. The apotheosis of mil civ fusion... https://t.co/Sp7uxEvsGv

By Paul Triolo
2022‑2024 Energy Infrastructure Cyberattacks Mapped
SocialMar 21, 2026

2022‑2024 Energy Infrastructure Cyberattacks Mapped

All 2022–2024 cyberattacks on energy infrastructure at a glance #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/3bPj3iU1nv https://t.co/PZo92XzX1Q

By Tor “SolarFred” Valenza
Over 1,000 Lebanese Killed in Israeli Airstrikes
SocialMar 21, 2026

Over 1,000 Lebanese Killed in Israeli Airstrikes

ISRAEL CONTINUES ITS REIGN OF TERROR IN LEBANON. Since March 2nd, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reports that at least 1,021 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. https://t.co/n95JS2F8UB

By Steve Hanke
Iranian Missile Breaches Israeli Defense, Highlighting Intercept Challenges
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iranian Missile Breaches Israeli Defense, Highlighting Intercept Challenges

Intercepting ballistic missiles is really hard. Iranian ballistic missile making through the air defense in the Southern Israeli city of Dimona

By Oleg Ciubotaru
Iranian Strikes Inflict $800 Million Damage on U.S. Bases
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iranian Strikes Inflict $800 Million Damage on U.S. Bases

The BBC reports that Iranian counter-attacks on US military bases in the Middle East have caused $800 MILLION in damage. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/hxarqU3UlU

By Steve Hanke
Hungary Acts as Moscow's Client, Briefing Kremlin on EU Talks
SocialMar 21, 2026

Hungary Acts as Moscow's Client, Briefing Kremlin on EU Talks

Speechless. The Orban regime in Hungary is not just a pro-Russian government profiting from shady dealings with the Kremlin. It is a de facto client regime — a collaborator fully aligned with Moscow, reportedly to the point of briefing the Kremlin...

By Illia Ponomarenko
Even Under Missile Fire, Wine Quality Matters
SocialMar 21, 2026

Even Under Missile Fire, Wine Quality Matters

At 4,000+ km, I would happily sit in a lawn chair on the tarmac at Diego Garcia with a bottle of wine while Iran fired two conventionally-armed IRBMs at me. My only hesitation would be the quality of the...

By Jeffrey Lewis
SLVs Likely Designed Primarily as Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
SocialMar 21, 2026

SLVs Likely Designed Primarily as Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

This is very good, although I tend to think the SLVs were always designed with use as IRBMs in mind so I regard that as equally likely given the very long distances involved.

By Jeffrey Lewis
Khamenei's Nuclear Fatwa Isn’t an Absolute Prohibition
SocialMar 21, 2026

Khamenei's Nuclear Fatwa Isn’t an Absolute Prohibition

The politicized talking point about Khamenei's "fatwa" frames it as a firm religious prohibition on nuclear weapons development. Often used by JCPOA defenders, it presents the fatwa as an unbreakable barrier. This framing omits key facts about its form, limited...

By John Spencer
Markets Stay Calm Amid Iran War and Hormuz Crisis
SocialMar 21, 2026

Markets Stay Calm Amid Iran War and Hormuz Crisis

How it feels watching the Iran War, Hormuz stoppage, and the still-so-sanguine global market reaction as the world economy just rolls into calamity. https://t.co/2S9HlfVhPt

By Rory Johnston
Structured Approach to Understanding and Acting on Iran War
SocialMar 21, 2026

Structured Approach to Understanding and Acting on Iran War

What we know, what we don't know and what we are doing about the Iran War: @CalmInvestor writes at @CapitalmindMF letter on a way to look at the crisis that gives you a structured view of how to act. (read...

By Deepak Shenoy
Khamenei’s Range Cap Stalled
SocialMar 21, 2026

Khamenei’s Range Cap Stalled

Bremmer's framing is common but wrong. Instead: 1. Iran was developing an ICBM when 2. Khamenei imposed a 2,000-km range limit. 3. The programs shifted to space launch. 4. Khamenei lifted the restriction in October 2025 after the June attacks. 5. Now he's dead,...

By Jeffrey Lewis
Iran Offers Japanese Ships Access Through Hormuz Strait
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran Offers Japanese Ships Access Through Hormuz Strait

IRAN SAYS READY TO LET JAPAN VESSELS USE HORMUZ — KYODO REPORTS Who knows better about surprises than Japan? https://t.co/yR2ThmWwvU

By Jeff Park
Iran's Solid‑propellant SLVs Could Launch Sizable Payloads
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran's Solid‑propellant SLVs Could Launch Sizable Payloads

While I can't rule out a low-payload stunt, Iran has several SLVs (including solid propellants) that could deliver a significant payload to these distances.

By Jeffrey Lewis
Iran's Control of Vital Waterway Means War Loss
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran's Control of Vital Waterway Means War Loss

I’ve said many times On Here that the loser decides the war is over. If this conflict ends with Iran still fighting, and in de facto control of perhaps the most important waterway in the world, then no matter how...

By Tom Shugart
Iran's Regime Now Mirrors Hezbollah, a 40‑year Target
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran's Regime Now Mirrors Hezbollah, a 40‑year Target

The good news: Iran’s regime has been reduced to a disjointed terrorist force like Hezbollah The bad news: Israel & US have been trying to get rid of Hezbollah for 40 years

By Dror Poleg
Chrome Update Fixes 26 Remote Code Execution Flaws
SocialMar 21, 2026

Chrome Update Fixes 26 Remote Code Execution Flaws

Chrome Security Update Patches 26 Vulnerabilities that Enable Attackers to Execute Malicious Code Remotely https://t.co/LgCt5yd3Zb

By Teri Radichel
Avoid Third‑Party DNS Tools Without Customer Approval
SocialMar 21, 2026

Avoid Third‑Party DNS Tools Without Customer Approval

I’m sure this works great. I haven’t tried it yet. As a pentester, don’t use this without customer approval because your customers may not want their vulnerability data stored in third party systems. Also they would have to add a...

By Teri Radichel
Attacker Tested Npm Worm Chain with Dummy Payload
SocialMar 21, 2026

Attacker Tested Npm Worm Chain with Dummy Payload

Interestingly, the threat actor is said to have swapped out the ICP backdoor payload for a dummy test string ("hello123"), likely to ensure that the entire attack chain is working as intended before adding the malware.

By Teri Radichel
Operation Epic Fury Costs an Extra $16‑23 Billion
SocialMar 21, 2026

Operation Epic Fury Costs an Extra $16‑23 Billion

"We estimate the incremental cost of Operation Epic Fury, including positioning maritime and aviation assets in the Middle East starting at the end of December, is between $16.2 and $23.4 billion." https://t.co/LtRjMhx9tD https://t.co/TKCJ1JX9B2

By Scott Lincicome