Retail Traders Set Record Demand on Citadel Platform
Citadel on flows, via Bbrg: Retail traders spent a record amount snapping up software shares on Citadel Securities’ platform, according to Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at the firm, which began tracking the data in 2017: “Net notional on our platform has reached levels we have never observed before” “The magnitude, persistence, and breadth of buying activity have materially exceeded prior peaks, underscoring retail’s role as a primary source of incremental demand in early 2026.” - Average daily dollar demand for US equities on Citadel Securities’ platform from Jan. 2 through Feb. 13 was about 25% higher than the prior peak in 2021 and roughly double the 2020 to 2025 average. - The momentum has extended beyond cash equities. Retail participation in options markets in 2026 is already running at historically elevated levels. Average daily options volume year-to-date is nearly 50% above the 2020 to 2025 average and more than 15% above last year’s pace. - Retail participation in options markets in 2026 is already running at historically elevated levels. Average daily options volume year-to-date is nearly 50% above the 2020 to 2025 average and more than 15% above last year’s pace. - “Retail options investors have skewed toward net buying in 41 of the past 42 weeks, a consistency that points to sustained risk appetite rather than sporadic positioning,” Rubner wrote.
FinTechs Become Latin America’s SME Financial Operating System
Latin America’s small businesses don’t lack ambition. They lack liquidity. FinTechs are stepping in to close persistent cash flow gaps with smarter underwriting, real-time data and embedded finance solutions. The real opportunity isn’t just lending. It’s becoming the financial operating system for...
Equity Volatility Spike Defies Traditional Buying Signals
Good read on *market stress* from GS: “Our vol stress index closed the week registering 9 out of 10. Historically, readings of >9 have been buying opportunities, but this time ‘feels different’ as the increase in panic has not come with...
US Plans Submarine Deployment to Australia Amid China Tensions
The U.S. is turning to the Aussies for some help with stationing four American submarines at Stirling in a hedge against potential future conflicts with China. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/u8WjtcAb9t #militarystrategy #usnavy #geopolitics https://t.co/kzBYp1cwAq
US Energy Chief Declares Net‑Zero 2050 Impossible
Net-zero by 2050 has “zero point zero chance of happening,” says US Energy Secretary Chris Wright ahead of the biennial IEA ministerial meeting in Paris. (This ministerial meeting will mark a turning point in global energy policy making across industrialised...
Egypt's M3 Surge Drives Inflation Beyond Target
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 22.7%, ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 13.1%/yr-17.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 5%/yr-9%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/V2EApGpMCY
China Delays Auto Sales Data, Signaling Weakening Market
The Economist: “Last month the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, another state-backed trade group, appears to have deferred the publication of its weekly sales data—a sure sign of growing anxiety over weakening numbers.” https://t.co/feytAJBiP2
Starlink‑enabled Drones Become Ukraine War’s Deadliest Weapon
Drones now account for the majority of casualties in the Ukraine War. With Russia improving its strike range by mounting Starlink terminals to drones, Elon Musk has finally stepped in. Full analysis available on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/LYlet7MIHM #dronewarfare #starlink #ukrainewar #geopolitics
India's Solar Overproduction Turns Boom Into Glut
Industrial policy, again: "India’s Solar Manufacturing Excesses Turn a Boom Into a Glut" https://t.co/VEeIUwYmoM https://t.co/r4CohxBgDI
Trump Must Accept Limited Iran Deal to Avert Strikes
two rounds of iran talks, very little progress so far. unless trump is prepared to accept a limited deal (focused on nuclear capacity, not missiles or support for regional proxies), military strikes in coming weeks looking likely.
Guyana Gains as Venezuela's Maduro Falls, Boosting Investment
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
Chinese State Banks Boost FX Securities by $90B Monthly
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
IEA Paris Meeting Tests Net‑Zero Shift Against US Oil Priorities
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
Chinese AI Firms Double, Hitting $35B—West Should Follow
china’s two ai model company minimax and zai have grown 2x in public markets in the last month they’re now $30-35b companies surely that should prompt western labs to go public already
Trump's Shadow Stalls Power Investment, Creating AI Bottleneck
As the dark shadow of Trump fell over the US power sector & the highly effective IRA, investment in power generation plateaued in 2024. Well-time to create a power bottleneck for AI. More on this in the Chartbook Top Link...
Critical Days Ahead: Watch Core Risk Signals
NEW POST: - RISKS. - Core signals to watch. - Volatility and Contagion. “The next few days will be absolutely critical to monitor…” 🔗Link in profile. https://t.co/qgBEZWrB8Z
US‑Iran Oil Talks Conclude Second Round, Third Round Pending
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
Iran and Russia Clash over China Oil Supply Rivalry
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...
Equal‑Weight S&P Outperforms Only Amid Major Market Shifts
Fascinating study from Bloomberg: S&P Equal Weight outperformance was extremely rare historically: 1999-2002 Dotcom 2009 Post GFC 2020-2021 Covid “Those cases accompanied major shifts in the market.” “Equal-weight S&P managed to maintain some outperformance 250 days later.” “The big question: whether this is the start of an...
Developing Nations Leapfrog Fossil Era, Embrace Clean Power
I *love* this ternary chart showing developing economies increasingly go directly for clean electrons (solar plus some wind), bypassing the fossil economy that the US and EU went through. I expect Africa will take an even more direct route than India. https://t.co/KjsZV3S6P1...
Neoliberalism Crafts Rules to Shield Global Capitalism From Democracy
I just finished Quinn Slobodian's fascinating book on the parallel evolution of globalization and neoliberalism, with the former (according to the latter) requiring specific rules and institutions to "protect" global capitalism from democratic political pressures. While he focuses very heavily...
China’s $20T Paradox Defies Any Five‑year Plan
A short op on what’s going on under the hood in China’s $20 trn economic paradox with the 15th FYP due next month. No five-year plan will solve the paradox of China’s economy https://t.co/uCtAPYrW7A
Cambodia's Payment System Outsourced Abroad Threatens Sovereignty
🇰🇭#Cambodia's payment infrastructure: Outsourced to overseas vendors, platforms and foreign-owned banks. How to maintain the country's sovereignity?
China Shifts Reserves to State Banks, Boosts Returns
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
2025 Year-End Bonuses Shrink, Uneven Amid Economic Slowdown
1/2 SCMP: "Long viewed by Chinese employees as a barometer of corporate prospects, industry momentum and even the broader economy, the year-end bonus packages for 2025 have become smaller, rarer and far more unevenly distributed, amid slowing... https://t.co/MFbnMtmZdY
China's Hidden Bank Interventions Hit $800B Annual Record
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
Thailand Market Hit Bottom Mid‑2025, Faber Predicted
While everyone continues to be bearish on Thailand, the index quietly bottomed in mid-2025. Marc Faber called it, almost perfectly. https://t.co/TfCZRnhSG7
Offset‑Dependent Clean‑Cooking Firm Fails, Warns Developing Nations
Clean cooking is a key climate solution. A company that raised $300 million and was reliant on carbon offset sales for its business model to work has gone bust. Lots of lessons for developing countries and offset sellers. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-16/clean-cooking-company-s-collapse-touches-world-bank-and-beyond
China's Surplus Doesn't Directly Boost US Treasury Holdings
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
DII Buying Offsets FII Selling, Keeping Nifty Afloat
FII's sold -972 Cr. DII's Bought Heavily +1666 Cr. It's been more than a year and nifty is trying to survive with the help of DII's only But without FII's, our portfolio will remain down and -ve 🔻 @champ_trader
Foreign Central Banks Sell USTs Even as Dollar Weakens
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
US Growth Decouples From Jobs, Entering Uncharted Territory
Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years: https://www.ft.com/content/298a38bb-4cc1-44f3-bd62-6aff25d58b94 #economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #growth...
GE Aerospace Eyes Explosive Asia Pacific Aviation Growth
bbaviation7 had an exclusive interview with Nakul Gupta, Vice President Sales and General Manager for Asia Pacific at GE Aerospace, where he shares what’s driving the rapid growth of aviation across the region from his perspective. We talk about how his...
Sheinbaum Halts Cuba Oil to Evade Trump Tariffs
Mexico's Sheinbaum is stopping oil flow to Cuba to dodge Trump’s tariff threat It risks backlash inside Morena’s pro-Cuba wing--her own party. https://t.co/A4rwOfLqHy #Mexico #Sheinbaum #Cuba #Morena #geopolitics #oil #sanctions #trade #tariffs #latam
US‑China Gap Lies Beyond Financialization Share of GDP
Whatever the difference between the US and China may be and however you evaluate it, it isn’t in “financialization”, at least not as measured by the share of finance in GDP (h/t twitter account of devarbol for this graph). More...
TIC Data Misses China’s Treasury Holdings Abroad
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
East Asia, Africa Match West; MENA, South Asia Lag
East Asia has labour-market gender gaps comparable to those in Europe and North America. Sub-Saharan Africa is also surprisingly similar (in the formal labour market). MENA and South Asia have massive gender segregation and LatAm and Carib are surprisingly in-between....
Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply
A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...
Eurasia Holds 81% of Trade‑Linked Jobs Globally
81 percent of employment worldwide that is linked to trade in goods and services is in Europe and Asia. Globalization is a eurasian story. Chartbook 433 just dropped. Check it out. https://t.co/jq1gYjLP4X https://t.co/I3iRrM8XEN
Consumption, Not Exports, Powers China's Growth
Why smart people say that exports “contribute” to China’s growth rather than “driving” it: almost all the time, growth in consumption is, in fact, a bigger contributor. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/NNNTMiyj6N
US Controls Slow China, Ignite Homegrown Chip Drive
NYT: "While Washington’s export controls have slowed China’s chip development, they have added fuel to Beijing’s decade-long push to make strategic technologies like semiconductors and A.I. entirely at home." https://t.co/OcHRXob06N
WTO Warns China's $1.2T Surplus Unsustainable, Urges Model Shift
1/2 AFP: "WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Friday urged China to change its growth model, arguing that its soaring trade surplus risked sparking new trade barriers. “The $1.2 trillion trade surplus is not sustainable because the rest of the world cannot... https://t.co/fvOrE6LYBH
China's Foreign Exchange Reserves: Key Trends Unveiled
Deep dive into Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/Yc09wNGpPK
Poor Nations Double Youth Disengagement Compared to Rich Countries
How rich-country advantages compound. More than twice the share of young people in poor countries are not in employment, education or training. This and more insights in today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/pokvStfn3w
Cognitive Warfare Already Undermining Western Alliances and Institutions
Cognitive warfare isn’t coming—it’s here. Some Western political leaders are being used to weaken alliances, disrupt decision-making, and fragment institutions. Swipe to see the key predictions, and visit davidmurrin.co.uk for the full analysis. #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #Russia #China #Strategy
Iran's Inflation Hits 81.5%, World's Second Highest
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 81.5%/yr. That's the world's SECOND HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/HcSee4i4O2
Buy Manappuram on Pullbacks Amid RBI
Macro: PE flows target Indian NBFCs. RBI cleared Bain's up to 41.7% in Manappuram; ₹43.85bn injected. Risk: regulatory scrutiny. Trading insight: buy Manappuram on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
EU Boosts Chinese Imports as Trump Tariffs Bite
During 2025, Chinese exports to the EU jumped by 6.3%. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = EU PIVOTS TOWARDS CHINA. https://t.co/tkz6F9xAsN
Nifty May Plunge to 19k Amid Global Macro Risks
The Nifty Can Crash to 19000 due to Global Macros - Prepare Now - Hindi ... https://t.co/gKdPPrx6C6 via @YouTube The video discussed the current market setup, IT sector view, which sectors are the weakest. Why we got here and where...