Finance Social Media and Updates
Finance Social Media and Updates
Finance Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Private credit is collapsing. Redemptions and withdrawals are not being honor honored You are not getting access to your money 3/15/2026 #oil #finance #bitcoin #credit #ai
Private credit default rate just hit 5.8%. Apollo down 41%. Blackstone down 46%. Blue Owl down 66% from peak. $265 billion in market cap erased. This is not a headline. It's a crisis. https://t.co/Am5fwWlQPj
Adoption Accelerates but Governance Lags: 61.2% of APAC Finance Firms Run AI in Production @Money2020 data: 61.2% live deployments, 35.3% exploring, 3.5% not adopted. Generative + agentic AI moving beyond chatbots into unstructured data analysis, customer conversations, autonomous tasks. Risk: bias...
Intuit is accelerating the pace of its stock buybacks and ending scheduled stock sales by its senior management team to help shore up its stock https://t.co/zit9LMXDW5 via @WSJ @waldensiew
Abra / New Providence Acquisition III deal overview Digital asset wealth management platform $846.3 million enterprise value Symbol $ABRX PR: https://t.co/PKIWSdVOsf IR deck: https://t.co/4K0equHQqD Disclosure: Long $NPAC shares + warrants in $ARB.to https://t.co/2X7jjFOvzd
Funds typically mark to market their loan portfolios and their debt, likely resulting in a significant difference in reported values and actual equity. As a reminder, loans to funds from large banks typically have a lower risk weighting than if...
A wise man poetically described it as the “time bounded valuation of an enterprise” Who knows with MacroHard and human emulation not to mention terrestrial data centers, it’s hard to know what to wear in the morning let alone how...
The oil-price shock is taking a bigger toll on European markets, particularly in fixed income, making the ECB's meeting this week arguably more interesting than the Fed's. Yields on French 10-year bonds are back up to the highest since 2011....
Good Morning from #Germany, where UniCredit has launched a €35bn hostile takeover bid for Commerzbank, offering a premium of just 4% over Friday’s closing price, acc to BBG calculations. Commerzbank's management is likely to rebuff UniCredit's €30.8 per share offer,...
There are three stages of compliance when hiring internationally. My rough guidelines for each: 1. Hire as contractors (a few folks) 2. Hire through an EOR (5 - 25 folks) 3. Set up an entity (>25 folks) Warning: setting up an entity can...
My march newsletter is out, discussing how risk cascades through markets. You can read it here: https://t.co/nUGy8smj9y https://t.co/jVX8Wirrq2
The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential ingredient in hurdle rates in corporate finance, discount rates in valuation and expected returns in financial planning. In 2009, I pulled together everything I know about the ERP, in a paper that...
Clients blow budgets by running over time and not getting value. This happens when they don't hold their SI accountable, turning them into a cash cow for vendors. #ClientTips #Budgeting https://t.co/qfD34eDLXX
I've built dashboards for 100+ companies. This is the one CEOs actually open every week. Not because it's fancy. Because it answers the question they actually care about: are we growing or is it just seasonality? Let me explain. Monthly sales numbers lie...
There's a circular risk in private credit that nobody is stress-testing. PE firms bought software companies with leverage. Private credit funded the debt. Now AI is disrupting those same software companies, compressing their revenues. The collateral backing billions in loans is deteriorating...
SpaceX potentially IPO’ing on 6/9 (69). Musk wanted to keep his companies private as long as possible so the IPO will set off rumors that private markets can’t shoulder the cashflow needs of SpaceX’s spending. The IPO is allegedly time to align...
the 3 things that close every no money down deal: – capabilities (your credibility stack) – capital (the structure that deploys zero) – closing (the process that controls everything)
'Investors' Chronicle' p39 this week mentions UBS expectation of a 9.5% yield from #AV. for 2028, comprising Dividend payment and Share Buybacks.
Claude can now model discounted cash flows faster than your entire research team But here's what Wall Street won't tell you: The analysts who survive won't be the ones who can calculate faster They'll be the ones who can ask better questions Computation is...
Iran war chills the IPO market: No companies expected to price in the U.S. this week
Revisiting this one year on… and number 1 remains the single biggest opportunity for tech builders for corporate finance teams. And I don’t see anyone building it ?!
Every time a private credit borrower blew up, a choir of private credit strategists called it "episodic." Just a one-off. Now, they're admitting some issues, but say "it's not systemic". We mapped this circular system since over a year ago. Here's what's actually going...
𝗠𝘆 𝗣𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 "𝗔𝗧𝗜 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 — 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸" On 1 March 2026, I shared the notice regarding the delisting of Asian Terminals Inc. (Ticker: ATI). The development came after Maharlika Investment Corporation (MIC), the Philippines’ sovereign wealth fund,...
Instead, we should change the tax treatment of development of for-sale starter homes from "income" to "capital gains"
Here's what growing up in Lebanon taught me about B2B fintech: My mom used to send me to the corner store with cash folded in my pocket and a mental note of exactly what to buy and how much change...
Hating on a proven risk mgt process is generally for people who neither have one nor get paid to develop one
$IREN 2028 Estimates: - Revenue $4B - EBITDA $3.1B $16.6B market cap, means $IREN trades 5x 2028 EBITDA. What is a fair multiple for $IREN?
Berkshire Hathaway bought back the equivalent of 309 $BRK.A shares (~$226 million worth), on March 4th, the day it resumed it stock buyback program for the first time since May 2024 - CNBC
Anthropic drops financial analysis capabilities Analyst job postings don't change Yet. The lag between technological capability and institutional adaptation is where fortunes hide Someone's building the infrastructure to replace these roles right now
The public market is just one giant volatility trade now-based off of quant factors. This is what happens when you hollow out active management. You could make the argument it’s way more efficient now, but I think we’ll find out that...
A Simple Theory of Digital Credit: 1. Acquire a large pool of appreciating capital ($BTC). 2. Issue credit ($STRC) against that capital, overcollateralized by the equity base. 3. Monetize a portion of the appreciation—directly or via derivatives ($MSTR)—to fund the dividend.
Morgan Stanley's private credit fund: investors wanted 10.9% out. They got 5%. Cliffwater's $33B fund: investors wanted 14% out. Got 7%. Private credit is a roach motel. $MS https://t.co/O3sy5yijmT
A $40B software debt “maturity wall” is about to hit at the worst possible time. -Higher rates -AI destroying valuations -Growth slowing All my PE-backed company friends are nervous because they know what comes next…and it will impact everyone https://t.co/VgLWpfUArt
How Much Money Do You Actually Need to Buy a Business? The answer is simpler—and more realistic. https://t.co/1vSKngieRj #SmallBusiness & Deal Making #SMB https://t.co/8co8xWB3QJ
One of the biggest reasons investors get excited about serial acquirers: They solve the reinvestment problem. In most businesses, good reinvestment opportunities are limited. You fund the core projects, maybe expand capacity, invest in product… and after that, the incremental dollar usually...
Spirit Airlines is in Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the second time in a little over a year. While many assumed the airline would liquidate, the company insists it has a plan to reorganize, which will be completed by early summer...
$PETS is down about 30% since January. Not a surprise, it looked far too risky at those prices, and management did not seem particularly eager to sell. Operations seem to be deteriorating quarter after quarter. In Q3 (Dec ’25 end), revenue declined...
VC IRR decay for 2017 and 2018 has been bad. And this was before the SaaSpocalypse. IRRs driven by big positions held at last round valuations. What would they look like at true fmv? https://t.co/sLIC9dcEyo
Most investors misunderstand the cost of equity. Below is the most explicit Buffett has ever been on his cost of equity... BUT the real insights come from Charlie Munger's push back and Buffett's Punch Card Idea ⬇️Link⬇️
Leaving aside the bad precedent (govt threatening to shut down a co unless it gets paid), the fee itself is kinda insane. The entire enterprise value was only around $14 billion. So this would be a 71% “banker’s” fee.
Because founders are famously optimistic about the future of their business, selling their company during a growth phase may feel like giving away too much upside. A couple things to think about in this case: 1. A liquidity event is...
Friday afternoon 8K. $VZ no longer reporting wireless service revenue. Rolling FIOS into that line. So weak. #SchulmanEffect https://t.co/XRxvo6vwvp
Multiple headlines today about the parallels between now and the run-up to the GFC. From Bloomberg: "BofA’s Hartnett Warns Markets Starting to Look Like 2008." From the FT: "Should investors worry about a 2008-style shock?" The key concern: oil prices...
$300B in bank loans to private credit funds, BDCs, and CLOs. "Private credit moved risk out of the banking system" was always the pitch. The banks just lent to the funds instead of the borrowers.
Fears of systemic risk in private credit are "just absolute nonsense" according to Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research and Investment Strategy @OneCarlyle Full pod out now with Jason, Dan Nathan & @GuyAdami 🎙️ https://t.co/0D9pdKUCGy
VCs are telling their port cos with debt to start the extension process early And PE folks are planning aggressive cuts to boost EBITDA in preparation We will see lots of layoffs here… https://t.co/t5Rfcdpvvm
Based on what Glapinski said during his press conference two days ago, all indications are, as I expected, that the plan is to use unrealised gains on the NBP's gold to fund the programme. https://t.co/csre6RPhlr
It’s getting a little cliche over here to say but… Megafunds are riding high. If any week was proof of that, it was this one. First, TechCrunch reported Monday on Founders Fund’s rumored $6 billion growth fund that’s in the works. The same day,...
Intangible assets—things like brand reputation, proprietary knowledge, and organizational capabilities—have become more valuable than physical factories and equipment...how are investors capturing this information? by @larryswedroe https://t.co/CW1mUsiweK https://t.co/Hu32LLmXw8
New on $MAPS: I think the public record is now strong enough to reject lazy, tape-anchored valuation—and strong enough to make a future “premium” bid answer much harder questions than management might like. Linked below. 1/2 https://t.co/ApS7y2tctJ
