OpenAI IPO Will Expose Today’s Story as Nonsense
The great thing about OpenAI going public is the financials will become public. When that happens it will be clear how nonsensical today’s story truly was. 😬
Missing the Golden Deal Flow Decade for $1M‑$100M Owners
if you're a $1M–$100M owner not in the acquisition market: here's what you're missing: – the golden decade of deal flow – motivated sellers at peak volume – vendor finance structurally open – competitors building platforms around you
AI‑Driven Workforce Demands Immediate Lock‑In Cost Management
Any company that truly believes AI agents will be a significant part of their workforce in the future should be working overtime on the lock-in problem. Both the CTO & CFO should be having sleepless nights about x% of their workforce...
Merger Mirrors Tesla Milestones to Align Musk Compensation
not a coincidence it is targeting similar market cap milestones to Tesla. this is likely to make a proposed merger fit within Musk compensation packages across both entities. also easier to *market the deal* to skeptical Tesla investors. $TSLA
Carlyle's BDC Discount Model Vastly Underestimates Market Reality
Carlyle's modeled average BDC discount of approximately -5% (based on current credit conditions) is far greater than the average actual BDC discounts of more than -20%, leading to a record "historical variance" in which NAV discounts are far wider...
Overweight USTs Now; Watch QRA for Future Issuances
USTs have tracked their seasonal bias closely this year. Now is a favorable time to go overweight, window is from late April to early May. QRA next week is my big concern in case Treasury projects larger...
Disruption Costs $30M in Sales, $22M EBITDA
A recent organizational disruption had a severe financial impact. Estimates suggest a $30 million hit to net sales and $22 million to adjusted EBITDA. #BusinessImpact #FinancialLoss https://t.co/zkah3qwyjK
AI Triggers Credit Cycle Shift, Targeting Software First
Q1 funding liquidity shock reflects a turn in the credit cycle because of AI, says Carlyle Credit markets are targeting software first because AI can replace it fastest. This isn’t broad disruption yet. It’s targeted repricing where revenue is most exposed. #AI...
Spotify Q1 EPS Soars 222% with Margin Expansion
Spotify Q1’26: EPS crush + margin expansion stand out $SPOT Revenue came in at €4.53B, +8.2% YoY. Operating margin reached 16%, up 360 bps YoY. Net margin hit the same level, expanding over 10 points. Cost discipline is clearly working. SG&A...
Hit Savings Goal, Pay Lump Sum, Accelerate
One of my clients has been saving toward a full website redesign and last week we officially hit the goal. We set a savings target, tracked it in her cash flow forecast, and when I pulled her numbers the final amount...
Corporate Bonds Surge 30%; Private Credit Squeezes Bank Loans
U.S. corporate bond issuance very strong, 30% growth Bank loan market struggling because private credit eating their lunch https://t.co/SAfuthERyB
OpenAI's IPO Race Hampered by Revenue, User Gaps
Oops > OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO https://t.co/OL69xSO5Ar #ai #cio
Stripe’s $1.1B Crypto Deal Wasn’t Too Early
Last week I sat down with Zach Abrams, co-founder of Bridge, which was acquire by Stripe for $1.1 billion in October 2024. At the time, it was the largest crypto acquisition ever, and plenty of people thought they overpaid. But...
Wall Street Banks Become Top Treasury Buyers Since 2007
The marginal buyer of US govt debt=== Wall Street banks boost Treasury holdings to highest level since 2007 https://t.co/aqL3AAsZf9
ELCO Beats Forecasts, Valuation Improves, Yet Un
#ELCO Revenue, Adj PBT, Cash "ahead of expectations". Net Cash £16.3m (up). ShareScope has fwd p/e 21.8 falling to 17.5 and fwd Divvy 0.9% rising to 1%, BEFORE news today, 5% rise, and strip out cash. Interesting. I don't hold.
TEP’s 11.7
#TEP hit 11.7%; two reasons really - Adj PBT at lower end of guidance (so hasn't 'missed') and the change to Shareholder Return Policy with a minimum 50% Dividend, which would still be around 4%. With shares so low, Buybacks...
Three Essential Python Projects for Financial Analysts
Top 3 Python Projects for Financial Analysts👇 1. Stock Price Analysis – Use Python libraries to analyze historical stock data and identify trends and returns. 2. Financial Forecasting Model – Build models to predict revenue, expenses, or stock prices using time-series techniques. 3....
China Plans Another London Green Sovereign Bond Sale
China is considering another green sovereign bond sale in London this year as Beijing looks to expand its presence in international debt markets https://t.co/gUiG7ZPz7n
Single ERP May Make OneStream Redundant for Consolidation
Heavily invested in one ERP ecosystem? You might not get the full value of consolidation with OneStream. If your enterprise uses a single ERP, it can often handle CPM, consolidation, and reporting needs on its own. #ERP #OneStream #CPM https://t.co/0fd4ybwP5H
Memory Costs Surge, Turning Cash Cows Into Piñatas
The great Mag7 + ORCL Rip off Festival. *Memory is close to 35% of their operating cash flow vs. 8% five years ago. Former cash cows are cash piñatas.
Chinese Funds Create US‑friendly Structures for Non‑sensitive Investments
Chinese early stage funds are increasingly offering a fundraising structure that appeals to US investors wary of American compliance restrictions but keen to grow exposure to non-sensitive sectors in China https://t.co/FHpOwEpW0O @echowonghk
AI Work Measured by Agentic Units, Not Tokens
Salesforce dropped a new AI metric. Agentic Work Units. Translation: they’re trying to measure the actual work AI agents complete. - Not just tokens - Not just usage - Not just seats That’s where SaaS AI reporting is headed. 1)...
GMO Internet's Reverse‑takeover Re‑IPO Flops
Gosh. GMO Internet (4784) "re-IPO" didn't do so well. The stock was a reverse takeover where the parent injected a domain management (profitable) and sub-scale data centre business into the pre-existing internet ad sub GMO Ad Partners, renamed it GMO...
High‑Yield Bonds Can Mask Non‑existent Cash
Pro tip: if a bond trades at >10% yield with a net cash balance sheet… the cash might not be real
Startup Revenue Metrics Are Ambiguous; Trust Them Less
I find myself trusting founder revenue metrics less than at any point since I started investing. That includes 2021, which should tell you something. Only 1% to 2% of startups ever reach $100M in revenue. The headlines make it feel like...
Tesla’s 10‑Q Flags $260M Expense on 20M Vehicle Delivery
10-Q surprises First provision for a first milestone of the 2025 comp package, and I was wondering last week which one it would be. Well, like always, read the 10-Q: "Delivery of 20 million Tesla vehicles" it is. $260m were expensed. https://t.co/CAPAjFaaf7
FY2026 Budget Plan Arrives Late, FY2025 Delayed Too
Isaacman told House CJS that the spending plan for FY2026 should be submitted to Congress next week (it's late). Spend plans are nerdy, but really useful for seeing how the $ actually will be spent. FY2025's was just posted last...
Berkshire’s Cash Cushion Fuels Massive AI Gamble
Totally random thought the Koala was discussing yesterday with @milken_cookies was on the Berkshire $BRK.A $BRK.B cash pile If Greg Abel threw $100 billion into Anthropic at $900 billion on a "maybe AI devours the white collar world, maybe it doesn't,...
ALM Software Turns Financial Planning Into Quantifiable Strategy
I created a video walkthrough of our new asset-liability matching software HourglassFP Pro. I know this methodology is new to most financial advisors, but I truly believe ALM is the way good financial planning should be done. This software helps you...
NTLA Turns Red, Faces Cash‑Raise Dilemma
$NTLA finally red. Took longer than I expected. How do they raise the cash they need from here? Are they going to be forced to take on debt?
Agriculture’s Slow Clockspeed Limits R&D and M&A Aggression
Clockspeed, Capital, and Conviction: Considerations for R&D and M&A in Agribusiness There is a recurring critique that incumbent agribusinesses are "asleep at the wheel" because they do not spend higher percentages of revenue on R&D like big tech or pharma,...
Blue Owl BDC Tender Attracts Under 1% Participation
*BOAZ WEINSTEIN'S BLUE OWL BDC TENDER DRAWS UNDER 1% OF SHARES It was a valiant effort and an interesting campaign, but ultimately Blue Owl nontraded BDC holders will HODL
Industry Experts, Not Finance, Drive PE Rollup Success
Lessons from 137 acquisitions Robert Irving of Buffalo Growth Partners shares what he learned from building a fire protection business from zero to $20 million in revenue, selling it to private equity, rolling equity, and then helping execute a 137-company rollup. @aggieirving...
Kashable Secures $60M Series C to Boost Responsible Credit
@getkashable, a fintech that provides access to “socially responsible” credit and financial wellness programs for employees as a voluntary benefit, has secured $60M in a Series C funding round led by Goldman Sachs Alternatives’ Sustainable Investing. To date, the company has...
Adapt Cash Burn Quickly, Like F1 Braking Late
Every startup should run cash like a Formula One car. Full speed on the straight. Brake as late and hard as possible into the curve. The danger does not come from a high burn rate - but from not being able...
Classify Implementation, Services, Custom Dev Correctly: COGS vs OpEx
COGS or OpEx for professional services? Get this wrong and your SaaS metrics tell the wrong story. Here’s how to classify implementation, services, and custom dev 👇 https://t.co/QewmVokAPX #SaaS #Finance https://t.co/cVFZs9Zmpc
Master Consolidation: Build Board, Source Off‑Market, Close Quickly
are you a $1M–$100M business owner? the cold blooded consolidator in your market: – built a board before sourcing – sourced off market before listing – structured vendor finance before offering – closed before you knew they were looking
Time‑value of Money Outweighs ARR Loss From Annual Billing
Yes annual billing means less ARR. So the Q is: Is the time-value of money a larger effect than the loss in revenue? I don't mean the financial rate, but "what could we spend this on" for the company in question, which...
PSBD’s NAV Reflects Real-Time Liquid Loan Valuations
"Our net asset value [NAV] is real," says Matt Bloomfield President $PSBD, which owns mostly broadly syndicated bank loans, which trade regularly. (Most BDCs are full of private credit loans, far more illiquid) Apple https://t.co/rSdzxl5cps Spotify https://t.co/bEg7VjRgk9 https://t.co/BZcWqJ8GQq
12 P&L Views: Choose the Right Perspective
12 Ways to present a P&L 1. 📔 ACCRUAL basis ❔ What it is → showcases income when earned, expenses when incurred 💡 Why it’s valuable → gives you a more practical understanding of what’s actually happening 2. 🤑 CASH basis ❔ What it...
German Finance Ministry Signals Possible Debt Brake Lift
German finance ministry leaves the door open to lift the debt brake https://t.co/p7is4tXNgd via @KowalczeKamil @mcnienaber https://t.co/EaVPGAH1wo
Loss of a Plane Sparked Southwest’s 47‑year Profit Streak
This is one of my favorite examples that didn’t make it into the final version of Inside the Box. In 1972, Southwest was almost out of money and had to sell one of its four planes. Instead of cutting routes, they...
China’s Manus Block Signals AI Software Now Under Scrutiny
China is blocking the Manus acquisition by Meta. A few things stand out: - China has historically been more opaque and less public in restricting foreign acquisitions of Chinese tech assets, while the US (CFIUS) has been more explicit and aggressive...
Powerful OneStream Demands Steep Learning Curve
OneStream's power comes with a steep learning curve. It's not as simple as other tools, but its extensive capabilities handle complex needs. The complexity is a direct result of its robust functionality. #FinanceTech #OneStream https://t.co/9BHcqrA0N7
X Money Near Launch Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
More than three years after buying Twitter, Elon Musk says X is close to launching X Money, a banking and payments tool built into the app. Early testers say it includes free peer-to-peer transfers, 3% cash back, a metal Visa...
Unlock R&D Tax Credits Through Engineering Work
Are you leaving R&D value on the table? George Nichkov explains how Taxnova connects engineering work to: • R&D tax credits • Software capitalization • Real financial impact Watch 👇 https://t.co/rBv5AOvECt #SaaS #FinOps #Startups https://t.co/NTWk1QKhDI
Buy Equipment only if Under Three‑times Profit; Otherwise Rent
“If a piece of machinery increases your profit by $5,000 and... companies sell for a multiple of 3 times earnings then it doesn’t make sense to own it unless it costs less than $15,000. So if it’s worth $50,000, sell...
Refi Lifts Cash Flow 50% As
Successful refinancing could lift FCF by ~50% in a biz w/ thousands of franchise locations. Immediate risk is already off the table following an emergency refi. The board has been refreshed, with a new CEO and chairman, and activists are leading a...
T‑Mobile, Verizon Urged to Chase Charter Now
"T-Mobile and Verizon should attempt to acquire Charter for massive value creation opportunities. The Trump Presidency is the time to try. A merger with Comcast is far less valuable, but better than doing nothing." via Peter Supino at Wolfe Research
Your Profession Gives You Ready Investors
If you’re a doctor, dentist, lawyer, or engineer, you already have an advantage in capital raising. You’re surrounded by other high-income professionals with capital to invest. Same circles. Same mindset. Built-in trust. You don’t have to go far to find your first investors. This is why some people can get...