Duffy Demands Transparency Before Risking Taxpayer Funds
More from @SecDuffy on @SpiritAirlines from our interview yesterday: ""We also have to be good stewards of the tax dollar, and we can't make dumb investments. We can't put taxpayer money that is going to be lost or just forestall the inevitable... I don't want that to be my legacy. And so there's more data points that are needed, more information that Spirit would have to provide to us, and the transparency of Spirit and their bankers would have to be immense, and we'll see how that plays out" https://t.co/5BBgLaYXQQ
SoundHound AI Acquires LivePerson, Expands Enterprise AI Footprint
.@SoundHound AI buys LivePerson for $43 million, builds enterprise customer base https://t.co/7fswl32rnF SoundHound AI, which focuses on conversational AI, said it has acquired LivePerson in a deal valued at $43 million, a slight premium to LivePerson's $40 million market cap.
Only 18% of US Public Firms Survive Long‑term.
Michael Mauboussin on survival rates for U.S. public companies "For every 100 companies, 18 survived and 82 died. Of those that died, 43 were the result of mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The other 39 were delisted for reasons other than M&A, with...
Tesla's 2026 CapEx Spikes to $25 B, Far Above Guidance
Tesla CapEx forecast and historic: 2026: $25 Billion (up from $20B guided last quarter) 2025: $8.5 Billion 2024: $11.3 Billion 2023: $8.9 Billion 2022: $7.2 Billion
Tesla Hikes 2026 CapEx to $25B, Forecasts Negative Cash Flow
Tesla’s raised 2026 CapEx to $25 billion from $20 billion and sees negative free cash flow for the rest of the year.
SODI Posts Strong Q4 Sales, Robust $27.3M Backlog
$SODI reports a great 4Q 2026 sales of $5.3 million. https://t.co/NpVNbR8qGx Backlog stands at $27.3 million. The future looks bright.
Dell Evolves Into AI Powerhouse, Not Just PCs
Dell just posted $113.5B in revenue. Up 19% YoY. $64B in cumulative AI orders. $43B in unfilled AI backlog. $30B in new buybacks. 20% dividend hike. This isn't a PC company anymore. $DLLL gives you 2x daily leveraged participation: https://t.co/ZjkBdri46R @GraniteShares
Apple CFO Ran $200B Cash with Just Seven Staff Members
Apple’s CFO for most of Tim Cook’s run was Luca Maestri (2014-2024). He had 2 IR employees while managing Apple’s $200B+ cash pile with only 7 employees and this LinkedIn profile: https://t.co/Am7ubnjt25
JPM Predicts Corporate Capex Surge After Anthropic, Mythos News
"Corporate capex is likely to increase further, particularly in the wake of the Anthropic / Mythos headlines." - JPM
CFOs Prioritize Analyst Consensus Over Profitable Growth
Your CFO does not work for your company. They work for the analyst consensus. The largest study of its kind asked 401 of them. 78% would cancel profitable projects to hit a number. 55% would skip money-making investments to avoid a...
Predictive AI Nailed $380M Blue Energy Funding
Crunchbase called it! 👏 Eight months ago, we predicted Blue Energy was likely to raise, with 95% confidence. Now it’s official with $380M in funding. That’s the power of our predictive intelligence, giving you the earliest private market knowledge.🔮 https://t.co/xE2a8NZbSK https://t.co/xxlYaZrRZo
Tax Planning vs Compliance: Different Services, Different Costs
Tax Planning and tax compliance are not the same service and are not the same price. Compliance is tax history required by the IRS to be reported each year. Tax planning lowers the tax over the course of your life.
Use Public Listings for Growth, Not Just Exit
In this episode, Callum Laing breaks down a strategy most entrepreneurs completely overlook, how to use a public listing as a growth tool, not just an exit. Instead of chasing traditional IPOs, Calum reveals how his “constrained stock” model creates stability,...
Good Metrics? Push Back on Low Valuations
One of our founders successfully negotiated up a lowball valuation offer even though they were a bit hesitant to ask. If your metrics are good, do not be afraid to push back on valuation. VCs will work with founders of...
Private Credit Emerges as Major Hidden Business Lender
Private credit is the bit of finance that’s not banks and not public bond markets, but is now big enough to matter for everyone else. Translation: a lot of business lending migrated somewhere less visible. https://t.co/J4tA5D8pq6
U.S. Government Takes Top Spot in Spirit's Debt Hierarchy
US govt would sit at the top of Spirit’s creaky capital stack. Creditors are not going to be happy. Also likely unhappy is Transportation Sec. Duffy, who called Spirit “good money after bad” https://t.co/Ittbdkn6L1
MCCK’s Undervaluation Proved Right, Shares Jump to $71
Wrote this about $MCCK last July: "Mestek reported their Q1 results last week. Cash, and investments were $280 million as of March 31 which equates to $37/share. Shares currently trade at $43.00/share and Mestek has just $8mm of debt. Wild. I obviously...
High‑valued Headline Stocks Crumble in Market Corrections
Often, the stocks that you see in the headlines have lofty valuations, making them vulnerable during market corrections. https://t.co/U1r9TiakDy
Government Bailout Turns Into Spirit Airline Stake
This administration taking an ownership stake in Spirit Airlines in exchange for a $500 million bailout loan is the most Spirit Airlines thing I’ve ever heard.
AB InBev Commits $600M to Upgrade U.S. Facilities
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Anheuser-Busch announced a $600 million investment to expand and modernize US operations
Spurs Lose Value, Arsenal Gains 20%
Tottenham lost 5% of its club value from 2025 to now. It'll go down further if Spurs are relegated. (meanwhile Arsenal's value grew 20%) https://t.co/9wL4UdaHEk
Metals and Crypto Offer No Diversification Edge Over S&P
Metals and Cryptos May Face Lose-Lose vs. S&P 500 High volatility, strong beta correlation and similar long-term price appreciation may define poor diversification, an issue afflicting cryptos and metals. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) has been flat vs. the S&P...
BDC Buybacks Validate NAV Amid Deep Discount
WSJ: "When a BDC trades at a deep discount to its official NAV, the most direct way to signal that the official marks are reliable is for the fund to repurchase its own stock on the open market." It really is...
MTR Issues Record HK$18.8bn Green Bond, First Local Dollar Issuance
MTR Corporation (0066) has priced its HK$18.8 billion corporate green bonds, marking its inaugural local dollar public bond issuance and the largest bond transaction in the Hong Kong dollar market.
China's Biggest HK Yuan Bond Sale Hits Record‑low Yields
Bloomberg: "China’s biggest yuan bond sale in Hong Kong since 2023 drew record-low yields for both two- and 15-year debt, with two-year debt selling at a yield of 1.32% and 15-year debt at 2.08%." https://t.co/Q9FDkpbbJE
ILOS Raises $530M to Expand European Solar and Storage
ILOS secures US$530 million facility to scale European solar PV and BESS pipeline #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/58PpaBIuUp
Fed Hearing Signals End of Easy Money Era
Markets are bracing for a major shift. Kevin Warsh's Fed hearing signals a move toward less intervention, a smaller balance sheet, and stricter inflation control. Banks rallied, but the era of easy money may be ending. FederalReserve
Brokers' Crypto Access Signals Full Securities Tokenization
Major brokers like Schwab now offering direct crypto access are simply a precursor to full securities tokenization… Brokers are building full infrastructure stack to handle crypto alongside tradfi investments. These investments will ultimately merge into one. Seems obvious.
AI Sparks Rapid Shift From Legacy Tools to Innovation
For the last 20 years, sales leaders insisted on Salesforce. Same with NetSuite and finance. A terrible UI was not a dealbreaker since it's what they knew and trusted. Less than 6 months of being Claude-pilled and those same people...
Rapid Revenue Doubling Justifies Sky‑high Valuation Multiples
Paying 30x revenue for a company growing this quickly doesn't strike me as crazy Cursor is doubling its revenue every three months For example $SNOW flake went public in late 2020 at ~80x sales while growing "only" 120% annually
Investors Flood Private Credit ETFs Amid Doom Headlines
Despite the negative headlines, private credit and BDC ETFs have drawn record inflows. “Doomsday headlines may be overstating the actual level of risk. Our flows are telling us a different story: that investors view this as an opportunity to invest at...
SpaceX Eyes $60B Acquisition After $50B Raise
Interesting. @mntruell raises money at $50B valuation (reported) Friday. Agrees deal to work with SpaceX with option to be acquired by them for $60B, Tuesday.
Treasury's Bill Swap Is Pure Cash Management, No Market Effect
The Treasury bought back 15BN in bills, notes, and bonds maturing in less than a year. In order to fund that purchase they issued or will issue 15BN of Tbills of similar but different maturity to better align the...
Sell ATM Shares at 1.25MNAV to Fund Reserves
Need to raise USD reserves 1. to bring dividend coverage back to 24 months? 2. Fund the put dates of the converts At 1.25MNAV there's a perfect way to do that cheaply. ATM common share selling. It's a no brainer $MSTR
Leicester's Cash‑out of Parachutes Fuels £375m Loss
The biggest concern for Leicester is that they have already cashed in on future instalments from Premier League parachute payments and player sale instalments by selling those sums to MacQuarie bank. Borrowed a net £85m in the last two seasons,...
Tech Junk Debt Spikes as Broader Credit Stays Risk‑on
Software 45% of distressed lev loans, up from 42% $130B+ of junk-rated tech debt maturing in 2028 Meanwhile, the rest of credit is firmly risk-on
Adobe Launches $25B Share Buyback, Signals Confidence
$ADBE Announces New $25 Billion Stock Repurchase Program. “Our new $25 billion share repurchase authorization is a direct expression of confidence in our robust cash flow and the long-term value we are delivering to investors. Returning meaningful capital to stockholders while...
Cheap Stocks' Historical Edge Vanishes Post‑GFC
For most of modern history, a cheat code was to own the cheapest 30% of the market based on P/CF; you would have outperformed the most expensive 30% by ~3.6% per year. That has broken down since the GFC, &...
Most Acquirer Mergers Destroy Value; Premiums Risk Overpayment
The VIC bashing I've been seeing on Twitter is a bit over the top, honestly. $BLD got bought at a 20% premium, who's to say $QXO didn't overpay here? Remember, the absolute majority of mergers end up value-destructive for the acquirer.
Private Credit Drowning in Bad AI‑Focused Loans
FT summing up a recent Sona report: "Private credit is full of cruddy loans issued by companies that couldn’t get financed anywhere else, and assembled haphazardly into rattlebags, rather than carefully constructed portfolios, by dealmakers (cosplaying as managers) who get...
SecDuffy Weighs United CEO's Bid for American
News: I asked @SecDuffy in interview about @United CEO Scott Kirby proposal he made on acquiring American https://t.co/DJkmFCRb1Z
Token Spend Surges Past Forecasts—Seeking Strategic Solutions
Hearing stories from inside several tech companies that token spend is MUCH higher than forecasted, and 📈 If you're in this situation, what is your strategy, or your team's / company's strategy? Send a DM and I'll share what I've collected...
Resilience Is the New Strategic Investment, Not a Cost
🌟 Systemic risk is the new hidden tax on growth. With Q1 global catastrophe losses surpassing $20B, resilience is no longer a compliance cost—it’s a strategic investment. Leaders who understand this will define the next decade. Read my latest newsletter...
Cohere CEO Pushes IPO for Broader Public Ownership
"Private citizens need to be able to take a stake in the company." Cohere CEO Aidan Gomez says he doesn't care what valuation his AI lab goes public at, but he does care about taking it through an IPO. "If we stay...
Robustness Ratio Reveals True Competitive Strength
Nick Sleep's "robustness ratio," introduced in his 2005 Nomad Partnership letter, offers a fascinating lens through which to view a company’s competitive strength. The idea is simple yet powerful 💡: The robustness ratio compares the value a company provides to...
Follow Dan
This is along the lines of what @DanAwrey has recommended, rather than relying on OCC Trust charters and skinny Fed master accounts. https://t.co/2MP5UWLpHM
Unlock Hidden ARR Growth with Revenue Intelligence
SaaS CFOs, there is so much insight you can take from your MRR data. This is my new Revenue Intelligence feature. Upload your MRR schedule to analyze the health and durability of your ARR. We can find: 1) Retention patterns...
Stadium Bonds Cost Double the Tax Revenue Generated
At a 4% interest rate, Missouri's $900m in stadium bonds would cost ~$50m a year to pay off, while bringing in only whatever slice of $28m/year in state, county, and city taxes attributed to the Royals actually goes to the...
Zero Personal Capital Enables True Serial Vendor Finance
what makes serial 100% vendor finance rare: – most acquirers deploy capital on deal 1 – most educators have done it maybe once – most advisors mix personal funds in – most structures require some deposit my track record: – zero personal capital – every single deal
Overfunded Startups Suffer when Bull Market Turns
Here's what happens when you raise way too much cash during a raging bull market https://t.co/z6PFT9EgGQ