Brad Jacobs Explains QXO's $17B Insulation Acquisition
Brad Jacobs dropped by Odd Lots to talk with me and @tracyalloway about why his company $QXO is buying an insulation company for $17 billion. https://t.co/a9rTLDb9rs
Future-Ready CFOs Prioritize Leadership, Skills, Succession Planning
#FutureReadyLive: Key Learnings from the CFO Conference. Barry Payne and Ana-Maria Cornoiu (@volvo_financial) discuss leadership, skills, succession planning and what future-ready organizations are doing now. #CFO #FinanceLeadership #AICPA #CGMA https://t.co/v8PAb5iI4f
Vendor Finance Success Relies on Learnable Frameworks
what serial 100% vendor finance tells you about the model: it's not market dependent it's not timing dependent it's not capital dependent it's framework dependent and frameworks are learnable i've proven it across every deal i've ever closed
Banks See 7% Upside, Target S&P 500 at 7,650
JUST IN: The average 2026 S&P 500 target across 8 top banks is 7,650. Implying ~7% upside
Historic Low Credit Spreads Prompt Treasury Rotation
Everyone thinks credit is fine. That's exactly when it isn't. Spreads at historic lows mean you're getting paid almost nothing for risk. $JOJO rotates to Treasuries when the risk isn't worth the reward. https://t.co/su2AGVy5J5
UAE‑Backed $30B Fund Invests in KKR Climate Transition Fund
A $30 billion fund backed by the United Arab Emirates has committed to invest in KKR & Co. Inc’s global climate transition fund https://t.co/66u3NaD16Q
Peach State Bank Merges Into UCB at 194% Book
Peach State Bank in Gainesville is merging into $UCB at 194% of tangible book. https://t.co/7wB9sFCL0n
30-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Move
US 30Y yields are compressing near a key breakout zone setup suggests a decisive move could be close. What happens next could impact equities, commodities, and global liquidity Read the full breakdown: https://t.co/a7I8dqoCIw #US30Y #BondYields #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Indiacharts #MacroEconomics...
Morgan Stanley's Spot Bitcoin ETF Holds 1,800 BTC
JUST IN: Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF now holds over 1,800 BTC ($139 million) after 9 days of trading
Apple’s Low CAPEX May Signal Growth Risk
Let’s compare Big Tech companies’ CAPEX spending—is this a problem for Big Tech? $AAPL has barely increased its CAPEX over the past 10 years. Some investors view this positively, seeing Apple’s business as highly efficient. However, CAPEX investments for Big Tech...
Private Credit Panic Is Plumbing, Not Credit Issue
Private credit headlines have been ugly lately A few high-profile blowups. Talk of redemption gates. Pundits calling the top But Alex Branton, Managing Partner at Nodem Capital thinks the noise is hiding what's actually happening on the ground His argument: the recent panic...
Seeing the Full Picture Reveals Need for Support
I chatted with a creative this week who sells bookish products on Shopify and has a physical location. She wanted to do her own books so I walked her through what that looks like. Daily sales entries, recording Shopify payouts correctly...
Medallia Loan Collapses, Blackstone Marks 60% Value
Blackstone has marked the Medallia loan down another 9 points to 60.3 as of Q1’26. It appears that Thoma Bravo has declined to recapitalize the company and it may be owned by its lenders soon. https://t.co/Duuu08riB1
CTAs Flood S&P with $8B Daily, $50B by Month‑End
Price-agnostic CTAs are now strong buyers of the S&P 500 and pump $8 bln /day into the market. Until the end of the month, the total increase in S&P exposure could reach $50 bln. There is currently no scenario, where...
Musk’s SpaceX Ownership Dips, Voting Power Rises
This story is odd, because Musk's economic stake in SpaceX actually fell from 41.7% to 41.5% during 2025 (his voting stake went up from 79.5% to 80.0% but that's to be expected when others sell supervoting shares) https://t.co/K5sOcpCVK8
Free Forecast Model Puts Headcount at Core, Shows Detailed Variance
I'm giving away my full close to forecast model. Worth $129. Register for my live training on April 23rd and it's yours 👉 https://t.co/iFBeytIbFx Most financial models have a blind spot where headcount should be. They forecast revenue beautifully. They project cash flow cleanly. But...
Sapporo Sells Stone Brewing to Firestone Walker, Duvel USA
M&A news: Sapporo is selling Stone Brewing to Firestone Walker + Duvel USA. Link to the story on @Brewbound in the comment below 👇 https://t.co/FNwtffMViK
Focus on Risk‑return, Not Fancy Financial Engineering
Financial engineering does not make a good product Risk always comes back It’s boring to say but this is why you focus on risk vs return and create allocations
Capex Boom Fuels Profit Spike, Then Order Collapse
James Chanos on X: "A massive capex boom wherein the sellers recognize revenues and profits while the buyers capitalize the costs, will do that. Look at mid-1998 to mid-2000, when S&P 500 profits rose 30%. Then look at the next...
XPS FY Update Boosts Appeal: Lower P/E, Higher Dividend
#XPS good FY Update, especially after a strong prior year. ShareScope has fwd p/e 14.8 falling to 13.7 and fwd Divvy 4% rising to 4.3%; still appealing.
AI Elevates Financial Analysts to Strategic Decision Makers
AI is transforming the Financial Analyst role by automating repetitive tasks and improving efficiency in data analysis. It enables analysts to generate faster insights, build smarter forecasts, and enhance decision-making with advanced tools. Rather than replacing professionals, AI is shifting...
Risk Managers Must Lead Geopolitical Decision Support Now
Fareed echos almost all the sentiment in the Global South, from what I’ve been reading. Very strange and unpredictable times for risk managers. Geopolitical decision making by the C-Suite need to be closely supported with genuine relevant risk related facts...
BRE Poised for Takeover by LYC or MP
$BRE is a strong potential takeover target for either $LYC or $MP, given that Mrs. Rhineheart is a shareholder in all three companies.
Silver Miners Cheap, Cash‑flow Rich Amid Price Resilience
With silver prices proving resilient at these levels, miners are trading at some of the cheapest valuations in their history. These companies are delivering record cash flows with exceptionally high margins. Game on. https://t.co/a2yC5hgWq2 https://t.co/06A0bDqjf9
Fervo Energy S‑1 Reveals Geothermal Pipeline and Costs
Enhanced geothermal energy pioneer Fervo Energy filed its S-1 in advance of a planned IPO, offering a closer look at their development pipeline, current and projected capital costs, and more. @heatmap_news's @MattZeitlin drills down for some insights: https://t.co/vpluY58Osk https://t.co/Q1X1QDKuNb
Private Credit Outlook Shifts: From Golden Moment to Cautious Reality
Bloomberg ran “key takeaways from the Milken Conference” last year. One was the narrative of a “golden moment” for Private Credit, per the panel. The panel this year might have a different tone. BTW I am on...
Onto's Rigaku Stake Raises Valuation Risk, Trim Suggested
Onto buys 27% of Rigaku for $710M, bolstering X‑ray/CD‑SAXS tie‑up; strong cash but 105x P/E flags valuation risk. Trading insight: trim ONTO on strength; watch execution. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Big Tech's Low Taxes Boost Profits, Erode Worker Share
Actually, Pro-Trump MAG4 companies - $META $TSLA $GOOGL & $AMZN - unsurprisingly pay the least US taxes despite being some of the largest companies in the world. https://t.co/80OHUutsyx Also this trend of US corporate profits growing faster than the domestic economy has...
Canton Network Secures Major Tokenized JGB Deals
😎 "We didn't do a pre-mine, we didn't publish all these white papers. We just very quietly executed, and now we're signing all these deals. "Today we signed deals around with Mizuho and Nomura and JPX around tokenized JGBs." --...
Treat Budget as Daily Variable, Performance as Constant
Another nail in idea of daily budget controlling spend. Budget should always be a daily variable While performance is the constant That is how you want the machine to model your spend allocation. https://t.co/M5Qsc5I5sh
USA Rare Earths' Overvalued Deal Boosts
More thoughts on the USA RE/Serra Verde deal. USA Rare Earths is using its massively overvalued paper to buy Brazil's only operating REE mine which should supply 50% of the HREE produced outside China by 2027. But this also puts a...
April Sees Record 29% of Deals Using CVRs
An unprecedented 29% of public M&A deals in the U.S. and Canada announced in April feature a contingent value right as part of the deal consideration. The use of CVRs has never been so high. Below is the database of closed deals...
MicroStrategy Now Out‑holds Bitcoin ETF IBIT
$MSTR now holds more Bitcoin than $IBIT, the most successful ETF in history. Let that sink in. https://t.co/b5Q8vQTqqY
Series A Success Depends on Metrics, Not Narrative
Raising a Series A? Your metrics matter more than your story. Here are the key SaaS metrics investors actually care about 👇 https://t.co/ImAd3fx5j5 #SaaS #Startups https://t.co/RVFImcoHQM
QXO's $17B TopBuild Deal Offers 5.9% Arbitrage Yield
➡️ M&A Deal Sheet ⬅️ TopBuild Corp. $BLD to be acquired by QXO, Inc. $QXO for $227.25 cash per share + 11.11x shares, 23.1% premium, $17.0 billion, 14.7x EBITDA (2027E) Trading at a 5.9% arbitrage yield and an implied 92% odds of...
KraneShares Proposes High‑Bandwidth Memory ETF After DRAM Boom
NEW: Filing from @KraneShares looking to launch a "High-Bandwidth Memory ETF" after the smash success of $DRAM https://t.co/mKuh5PCVoA
Grayscale Amends Hyperliquid ETF, Anchorage Named Custodian
NEW: Another amended Hyperliquid ETF filing, this one from @Grayscale. More signs of movement between issuers and SEC. Notably @Anchorage will be custodian. https://t.co/neEmg4PWZ2
Map Risk Allocation to Portfolio to Avoid Surprises
High level suitcoining here. This is how you talk to Boomers. Mapping risk allocation to port allocation is smart/ prudent, limits nasty surprise potential and helps behavior.
Free Cash Flow Reveals Stock Valuation Truths
The Odd Lots episode on stock market valuations and free cash flow was one of those ‘aha’ moments. @TheStalwart @tracyalloway are the best there is in the political economy podcast game. https://t.co/3kX71fxfbF
Beware: Recruitment Agencies Targeted by Bill‑of‑Exchange Tax Scam
Just heard about an insane "tax avoidance" scheme being pitched to recruitment agencies, involving paying HMRC with a "bill of exchange". I'd think it was a joke if it hadn't come from an unimpeachable source. If you come across this, do get...
Warsh Hearing Could Shift USTs Amid Iran War
Iran war continues to dominate price action in USTs but Warsh's confirmation hearing tomorrow will likely interrupt the current narrative for a spell especially if he sticks to his recent rate dovishness and balance sheet hawkishness.
Buy $350K Business, Earn $158K Cash Flow
The U.S. small business market did $7.95 billion in transactions last year. Median sale price: $350,000 Median cash flow: $158,950 Median revenue: $703,000 Buy a business doing $158K in cash flow for $350K is what the numbers say. With 10% down and SBA financing, that's...
Goldman Warns Rally Tailwinds Largely Exhausted After Perfect Storm
JUST IN: Goldman's Delta-One Desk-Head warns that after the perfect storm rally, sentiment and positioning tailwinds are largely exhausted.
Four Major Deals Showcase Hefty Premiums Across Sectors
Today's M&A notes $BLD to be acquired by $QXO for $227.25 cash per share + 11.11x shares, 23.1% premium, $17.0 billion $SILA to be acquired by $OWL for $30.38 cash per share, 19.0% premium, $2.4 billion $RUP.to to be acquired by $AEM for...
Ignoring Private Credit Risks Led to Costly Failure
In Lux's Q1 2023 letter (3 years ago) on the theme of FAILURE comes from a FAILURE to imagine FAILURE we warned of the asset class du jour of "private credit" and the explosion in inflows that would not end...
Bank Keeps AI Lending Tight, Exposure Under 1%
One bank’s approach to lending in the tech space. From Fifth Third Bank conference call Friday: “On software and data center lending, we have maintained that same disciplined posture. We believe in the long demand for AI infrastructure, but we have...
Inside Tax Firms' Review Process: Horror Stories Wanted
What's the review process like for firms that prepare a lot of tax returns? I'd love to hear some horror stories.
Gymnastics: Only College Sport Paying Women More Than Men
Gymnastics is the rare college sport where programs are spending substantially more money on the women's programs than the men's. In today's (free) Extra Points, we broke down all the budgets in both sports:
UAE Can Preserve Peg via Swap Line, Not Reserve Cuts
A lot of this seems preemptive, given UAE’s large existing FX reserves. Using a swap line for a bit to help maintain the currency peg would be seen as less disruptive than trimming reserves.
Buying a Canadian Business: Complex, Risky for Americans
Can You Buy a Business in Canada? An American asked me this—and the answer is more complicated (and risky) than you think. Watch the full video here: https://t.co/vLaP5jaaF2 #businessbuying #entrepreneurship #smallbusiness #investing #canada #BDC #SBA #businesstips #acquisitions #finance