Quiet $10M+ Exits Thrive Across Ten Service Sectors
10 industries producing quiet $10M+ exits: – radiology networks – waste platforms – HVAC rollups – trucking fleets – pest control networks – dental groups – physiotherapy chains – senior care facilities – security firm portfolios – behavioral health groups
Sticky Contracts Guarantee Zero Churn, Steady Cash
industries where customers never leave: – pest control: quarterly contracts – HVAC: annual maintenance agreements – waste: council contracts locked – security: multi-year guarding deals – radiology: referral networks sticky churn rate: near zero cash flow: predictable bank appetite: maximum PE interest: enormous
MUFG Appoints Saumitra Shrivastava as Asia Project Finance Head
MUFG has hired Saumitra Shrivastava as head of Asia project finance based in Singapore, according to sources https://t.co/gA6CQ3OaxK
49ers Free $11.6M Cap Space via Odighizuwa Bonus
The #49ers converted $14.5M of Osa Odighizuwa's salary into signing bonus, creating $11.6M of cap space.
Sun Pharma's $13B All‑Cash Offer Boosts Organon
M&A lift: Sun Pharma readies $13B all‑cash bid for Organon, bank‑financed; strategic fit in women’s health and US manufacturing. Competing bidders and regulatory risk persist. Trade: go long OGN on bid momentum, tighten stop. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights:...
OpenAI Overpromises Deals It Can't Afford
OpenAI made deals they know they can’t pay for. They aren’t going to have $852 Billion in cash in the next 4 years. They just aren’t.
High‑volatility, Uncorrelated Assets Boost Capital Efficiency
Most allocators miss this, because it’s counterintuitive, but a high volatility uncorrelated asset is more useful than a low vol one because it is more capital efficient (assuming expected returns are positive). So yes, this return stream could be useful in...
Banks Fill Private Credit Gap as Loans Surge 7.4%
Commercial and industrial loans made by banks are up 7.4% year-over-year, the biggest jump in three years: @PantheonMacro While this can indicate a pickup in capex spending, this time it shows how banks are taking the place of private credit...
Sustained High ROIC Defies Mean Reversion, Needs Complex Valuation
Michael Mauboussin on fade rates "ROICs regress toward the mean as the result of competition, changing market conditions, and luck. But there is a substantial body of research that shows some companies produce high ROICs for sustained periods, often measured in decades. This...
Private Credit Differs Yet Echoes 2008 Shadow Banking Risks
Two things can be true at once: private credit isn't identical to 2008-era shadow banking, and some of the same vulnerabilities may be creeping back. Similar enough to inspect closely.
Private Credit Masks Volatility, Echoes 2008 Shadow Banking
Private credit may hide volatility, but hiding it doesn't make it disappear. We learned that lesson with shadow banks in 2008. Is private credit just shadow banking with a new name? Partly yes, partly no. The honest answer is rarely...
Intel's Forward PE Skyrockets Compared to Nvidia, AMD
$NVDA at ~20x forward PE $AMD at ~40x forward PE $INTC at ~100x forward PE Makes perfect sense. 😅
Key AI Trends Every Finance Professional Must Track
Here are the #AI developments that #Finance pros should be tracking by Betsy Vereckey @MITSloan Learn more: https://t.co/nnD77Z7ail #MachineLearning #ArtificialIntelligence #ML https://t.co/kOfvqheC89
Investors Reject $888M Zaslav Parachute; Board Still Pays
This just in. Warner Bros. Discovery investors cast votes representing 1.4 billion shares AGAINST David Zaslav's golden parachute, that could cost the company $888 million. The board has indicated it will pay him the money, regardless of the...
World Bank, Amazon Launch Bond to Restore Eastern Cape Ecosystems
The World Bank has teamed up with Amazon on a bond whose proceeds will go toward rehabilitating ecosystems in South Africa’s Eastern Cape Province https://t.co/87FDKgjmhu
Spirit Airlines Faces Cash Depletion by Next Week
Spirit Airlines Says It Will Run Out Of Cash Next Week - View from the Wing https://t.co/vR7BYqWck2
JPMorgan’s Private‑credit Playbook: Inflate Rates, Warn
The JPMorgan private credit playbook this month: 1. Raise back-leverage rates 50-150bps. 2. Mark down the collateral. 3. Tell the press the asset class is risky. 4. Launch your own fund. The warnings were always going to end in a product launch.
Credit Investors Snap up BDC Bonds as Retail Exits Equity
Third BDC bond deal in eight days. All oversubscribed. All priced tighter than talk. Credit investors are buying the liability stack while retail is trying to exit the equity below it
Alani Nu Could Boost CELH Revenue, Undervaluing Stock
$CELH does seem too cheap at ~2.9x NTM ev/revs with Alani Nu growing at 94% YoY. At the end of 2025, the Celsius brand was 60% of total revenues and the Alani Nu brand was 40% of total revenues. Before the...
ETH Lending Stuck with Low Yields, Insufficient Risk Premium
"Lenders in the ETH market were facing a risk of impairment on loans that were illiquid with indefinite duration and no defined maturity. "The risk premium they should be receiving were not being compensated at a yield of 3%, but...
Growth Beats Cash Flow in Rule‑40 Valuations
There are lovers and haters of the Rule of 40. But if you fit the Rule of 40 profile, you will command a premium valuation multiple. Their latest post states "that companies with similar Rule of 40 but growing faster...
Tim Cook Turns Apple Into Ireland’s Top Taxpayer
Tim Cook also did wonders for Ireland and the Irish fisc ... Apple is almost certainly now the largest Irish tax payer and its 2014 decision to put on a Green Jersey set out a tax model that a lot of other...
Monday Double Front-End Auctions Pressure
King Lear's Truth Social musings may be obscuring it a bit, but double front-end auctions on Monday weighing on 2s and 5s
Starlink Posted $4.4B Profit on $11.4B Revenue
Starlink last year: $4.4 billion in operating profit and $11.4 billion in revenue, according to @Reuters review of pending S-1 https://t.co/e9KFllMATS
SME Leaders Show Strong Growth, Lower Valuations
Two popular SME recent results - 1. Prizor Viztech : Revenue 105.93 Cr vs 40.06 Cr (+164.42% YoY) PAT 14.84 Cr vs 5.87 Cr (+152.83% YoY) PE down from ~48x to ~29x post results Margins up Sector Tailwinds Management beats guidance 2. Rajesh Power : Revenue 990 Cr vs...
Polygon Sold for $20M, Triggers Mass Layoffs
It's been almost a year since Polygon was sold to Valent and hit with mass layoffs as part of the deal. Adweek now reports the sale price was $20 million. https://t.co/GuKFgrZsAx
Russia's War Debt Burden Threatens Banking System
Russia has a financial crisis looming The Kremlin shifted war costs from the sovereign balance sheet into the banking system. Now those loans are going bad. That bill is coming due. https://t.co/PzEExkohJo
AI Fears Slash Software CLO Exposure, Widen Valuation Gap
Software Sector Debt Market Shifts (data via Mizuho): • CLO software allocations dropped from 15% to 5-8% • AI risk fears have pushed some performing credits into the 70s-80s • Refinancing private credit into Term Loan B is currently stalled AI disruption fears are...
Warner Bros Shareholders Approve $111B Paramount Takeover Despite Backlash
News: Warner Bros. shareholders overwhelmingly approve controversial $111-billion Paramount takeover amid growing opposition in Hollywood and beyond. https://t.co/iHnN5ov2ML
Shareholders Back Paramount Deal, Reject Exec Payouts
Warner Bros. Discovery Shareholders Overwhelmingly Approve Paramount’s Megadeal, but Vote Against Exit Pay Packages for Zaslav and Other Execs https://t.co/SuUqxaA7dz via @variety
Future Default and Severity Rates Drive Private Credit Opportunity
Actually want matters is both the future default rate AND severity rate. Sometimes defaults fault in a greater recovery as when long dated fully collateralized bonds default and the maturity date advances to the day it is restructured.
Accountant Is Not CFO: Misunderstanding Costs Millions
I’ve seen the headlines and want to offer a different perspective. Cardi B allegedly said she “got burned” after discovering over $1 million was spent in a single month, and that she fired her accountant. I say allegedly because I...
Private Credit Strain May Tighten Liquidity, but 2008 Repeat Unlikely
Due to faulty marketing targeting inexperienced retail investors, private credit problems are making headlines. With the headlines, broader financial system confidence and sentiment are in play. If private credit concerns spread, liquidity in the traditional and shadow banking...
Time Multiplies Investments: $10k Grows to $3.3M in 50 Years
If you invested $10,000 in the U.S. stock market 10 years ago you would have $37,595 today. The same investment made 50 years ago would be worth over $3.3 million. The magic of compounding, in one chart… https://t.co/xsMqEDHpje
Private Credit’s Hidden Risks: Unseen Leaks Surface Later
Private credit is like plumbing behind the drywall — the water still flows, but you lose the gauges. You might not notice the slow leak until the ceiling stains appear. That's the trade-off worth understanding. https://t.co/QyNvAT3d9N
Self‑Dealing Mergers: Sabotage A to Boost B
If you controlled Company A and planned to merge it with Company B, which you also controlled, wouldn't you d9 all you could to diminish the value of Company A, by piling on enormous capex that ultimately benefits Company B,...
Execs Tweak Numbers, Not Thermostats: Double‑standard Hypocrisy
So execs at publicly traded companies can inflate revenue, massage expenses, stretch depreciation schedules, hide bad debts, adjust for some made-up one-time items to beat quarterly estimates on a non-GAAP basis, but you're not allowed to turn up the thermostat...
Activist Push Reveals Asset Worth Over Company Valuation
High-quality asset trapped inside a dysfunctional company. Activists with 20% stake have forced a strategic review. Core asset alone is worth more than the entire EV. 50%+ upside if the company eventually gets sold. https://t.co/2ryfkObL69
Risk Goes Beyond Volatility: Embrace Uncertainty
Why risk is more than just a number Risk isn’t just volatility. It’s uncertainty and the unknown. #RiskManagement #Investing https://t.co/rnhTw3GUY7
Netflix Launches $25 B Buyback to Lift Share Price
Netflix Authorizes $25 Billion Stock Buyback in Bid to Boost Share Price https://t.co/COT0WpNmfh via @variety
Tesla Q1 2026 Money Flow Visualized in Sankey Chart
Where did the money go? Here's the Q1 2026 Tesla income statement with the full flow explained in a Sankey chart: https://t.co/3pBpHEDf6z
SoftBank Seeks $10 B Loan Backed by OpenAI Shares
SoftBank Group Corp. is seeking a $10 billion loan secured by its shares OpenAI https://t.co/38vMHTwsEM
Yields Climb as U.S.-Iran Tension Meets PMI Watch
JUST IN: Treasury yields rise amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, with investors eyeing April PMI data.
Regulators Intensify Scrutiny of $3T Private Credit Market
JUST IN: Regulators are cranking up probes into risks in the $3 trillion private-credit industry as investor jitters push some backers to exit.
OMG's £31.7m Cash Pile Fuels
The most interesting bit regarding #OMG is the Cash mountain of £31.7m. ShareScope is showing a Mkt Cap of £56.4m and fwd Divvy 6.7% rising to 7%. Worth considering. I don't hold.
Hamilton Accies Face £3m Loss, Assets Barely a Car
Hamilton Accies submit 24/25 accounts ⚽️Loss reported £1.07m ⚽️Total accumulated losses £3.05m ⚽️Employees nearly halved to 28 ⚽️Only tangible asset owned by the Club is a car, and by the cost suspect it’s not a Ferrari ⚽️Borrowings £1.2m ⚽️Auditors report is a disclaimer. This is accounting...
TIKR Streamlines Workflow, Eliminating CapitalIQ‑Morningstar Switching
Great move from TIKR. It may sound trivial, but not having to switch from CapitalIQ to Morningstar every time makes the experience more seamless https://t.co/JpbCegD9rx
Obama’s 2009 Chrysler Rescue Debate Mirrors Today
This reminds me of the March 2009 meeting Obama held on whether to save Chrysler (His team was divided on the question and polling was against it) https://t.co/yo1tQcYcBo
Direct Investment Beats SPVs for Anthropic Allocations
Just to satiate the tail risk fomo we are migrating to the matrix, if it’s a real Anthropic SPV and not SPV^2 or ^3 that’s super tempting But what’s really wild to the Koala is at this point Anthropic type firms...
Skip Risky Deals: Bridge Debt, Low DSCR, Thin Spreads
Here’s how to identify when a deal is too risky: Sometimes the deals you don’t do are more important than the deals you do This 40-unit deal that I underwrote a while ago had 4 major deal breakers 1. Having to take...