Tech Industries Show Wider ROIC Gaps than Consumer/Industrial
Michael Mauboussin on ROIC by industry: "The dispersion of returns is generally lower for industries in the consumer and industrial sectors and higher for industries in the technology sector." "A company’s ROIC is determined in part by the industry it competes in and the strategies it pursues."
ChatGPT 5.5 Dazzles with Excel Visuals, Falters on Full Model
ChatGPT 5.5 told me it would beat Claude for Excel work. So I made it prove it. https://t.co/nHK9PPcSSZ For context — last time I tested ChatGPT on a financial model, I was underwhelmed. So I went into this skeptical. ChatGPT 5.5 surprised me. At least...
CEO Says Bitcoin Sales Fund Dividends, Prioritizing Math over Ideology
Strategy's CEO Phong Le just said the company will sell Bitcoin to pay dividends when it clearly benefits shareholders. He calls it "math over ideology." https://t.co/muCxxdEYYj
China’s Crackdown Will Squeeze Debt‑laden Carmakers
1/6 SCMP: "Beijing’s tighter oversight of vicious price competition in the automotive sector is expected to increase borrowing pressure on mainland carmakers and accelerate the exit of weaker, debt-laden players amid softening consumer demand, according to S&P Global Ratings." https://t.co/jlaxAjpD2B
VC Rounds Have Ballooned Tenfold in Just 18 Months
Not universally true by far, but a chunk of market has done an ~10x increase in the size of rounds in the last 12-18 months. $2m seeds are now $20m seeds. $20m large Series As are now $200m Series As....
Enterprises Must Treat AI Tokens Like Budget Line Items
A common trend emerging in larger enterprises is token budgeting as a major topic. As agents can do more and more long running tasks, and thus take vastly more compute, allocation of tokens across teams becomes a very real thing...
CMBlu Secures €50M Series C for Organic Flow Batteries
Organic flow battery company CMBlu closes €50 million Series C #energysky -- via Energy Storage News: https://t.co/596pHjCFaJ
Balanced Bipartisan Budget Safeguards Education and Public Safety
Today I was proud to sign a balanced, bipartisan budget that reflects our commitment to being responsible stewards of taxpayer dollars and protects key funding for education and public safety. I’m grateful to the work of Colorado’s Joint Budget Committee...
Fed Seeks Level Playing Field for Banks Vs. Non‑banks
Fed's Michelle Bowman: the regulatory environment has pushed credit to non-bank financial institutions banks. Proposed changes are aimed to have traditional banks better compete.
US Stock Market in Bubble Territory, Yield Spread Confirms
My view in @beincrypto on how the US stock market is OVERPRICED, OVERVALUED, and OVERHYPED: “My Bubble Detector says the US stock market is in bubble territory. So does the bond-stock yield spread. Buckle up.” https://t.co/EIcTSXkcsw
Regulators Block Bank Liquidity Requests, Scarce Reserves Inefficient
How to shrink the balance sheet? @DuffieDarrell Due to regulatory pressure, large banks have not come to the Fed to get liquidity. Making reserves scarce again would be 'massively inefficient and stupid' (referencing Fed's Chris Waller's recent speech)
DeepSeek Secures $7B Funding at $50B Valuation
DeepSeek is raising $7B at $50B valuation. Here is a rare English-language interview with one of the startup’s co-founders following a previous tech exit in the AI space. https://t.co/scR3D4ohM5
Payward Seeks Federal Bank Charter for Crypto Custody
Kraken's parent company, Payward, applies to become a Federal Bank, offering Bitcoin and crypto custody services https://t.co/hKVxGVLfFY
Master Working Capital Forecasting with a Proven 20‑Year Model
Why is working capital so damn hard to forecast? And how do it better? In tomorrows edition of Playbooks, I share the model for understanding working capital that has served me for the last twenty years and helped navigate umpteen cash...
Embrace ETF Securities Lending for Extra Returns
A little weekend reading from me: why you should learn to love your ETF's securities lending program. https://t.co/zspTTR0VpP
High‑Yield Spreads Hit Pre‑Iran Conflict Lows Globally
DB: US high-yield spreads are now tighter than levels prior to the Iran conflict... in Europe too @augurinfinity https://t.co/Yu7IqKp2Aw https://t.co/s9fwrJSPan
Apollo, Blackstone Eye $35B
Apollo and Blackstone are among private credit lenders talking to Broadcom on ~$35 billion in financing for that company's AI chip business. Scoop by @silasfelixbrown and @lauralevfinance https://t.co/FB9UTY7pBg
10-Year Yield Above 4.5% Signals Trouble Ahead
All this may be happening when the long bond is coiling inside what looks like a bearish continuation pattern. Real rates are rising, as are inflation expectations via the TIPS market. Remember: nothing good happens above 4.5% (for the 10-year)....
Senior Direct Lending Returns Shrink to Risk‑Free Levels
Goldman survey of insurers on expected 12-month returns: PE: 18% Crypto: 3% Senior direct lending: 2% Sold for years as high single digits with downside protection. Now it's just the risk-free rate without the risk-free part
Global Oil & Gas CAPEX Averages $575 Billion Annually (2022‑25)
For scale: The average annual GLOBAL oil & natural gas CAPEX for 2022-2025 was ~$575bn... https://t.co/esWldvX2SQ
Bond Investors, Fed Use Different Treasury Valuation Models
Bond investors and Fed policy makers use different models on how to look at Treasuries, @HannoLustig says. @HooverInst
Private Valuations Inflate; Public Markets Demand Realism
One of the logical mistakes I see people making often is comparing public valuations to private valuations. It is easy to only raise at higher and higher valuations in the private markets. Public markets are much less forgiving.
Nintendo Faces $640M Hit, Switch 2 Costs Rise $40
Nintendo reporting that it expects a 100 billion yen ($640 million) impact this fiscal year (April 2026 - March 2027) as a result of rising component prices and tariffs. Based on the 16.5m unit forecast for Switch 2, that's around...
Bearish Bond Divergence Signals Liquidity Stress Ahead
Curious… “The daily Advance-Decline (A-D) Line for high yield corporate bonds is making a bearish divergence versus the SP500. This is a concern because it conveys a message saying that there are liquidity problems.” @McClellanOsc I would say this is a...
Rising Oil Forwards Threaten 60/40 Portfolio Stability
What if this condition lasts longer than the market assumes? What if it’s not the spot price that is too high but the forwards that are too low? If this left tail risk manifests, it could have far reaching implications...
Tax Hurdles Block Dubai Fundraising; Address Debt Side
Finally - ive been saying that for years now - its the tax - I could not raise funds from Dubai in 2016 due to tax issues. It is the first thing FIIs ask after they approve your fund. At...
MU's Future Upside Hinges on 2027 Earnings Delivery
Client asked me how high $MU can go. The answer is a lot higher or no higher at all. "That's the problem it has an 8 p/e relative to 2027 EPS and 4.7 P/S relative to 2027 forward revenue...
Banks Deploy Aggressive Strategy to Tackle Stablecoins
"The banks have a pretty comprehensive strategy against stablecoins. They're not going to let this issue rest." 🏦 https://t.co/Mwr3RXyd81
Apple Abandons Net Cash‑Neutral Goal, Implications Explored
Following Apple’s earnings release, the most prevalent incoming question that I received dealt with Apple’s decision to sunset its net cash neutral goal. While we went over my initial thoughts regarding the topic in last Friday’s update, there was room...
Inside Multi-Asset Collateral: Risks and Vault Liquidations
A few months ago, I did an in-depth interview with @rf_extended about how multi-asset collateral works under the hood. Lots of moving pieces and considerations for managing the risk, especially when the vault is involved for liquidiations. https://t.co/5b6TOJ1lJR
Tyson Beef Faces $350‑$500M Loss Amid Cattle Shortage
"Tyson’s beef operations posted a wider loss, and the company expects the segment to lose $350M to $500M in 2026... the severity of the current cattle shortage has sent prices so high that meatpackers are losing money on every animal...
Bank Influence Drives Push for Deeper Market Integration
"deeper capital market integration through the savings and investment union and a stronger safe asset base" translation: "banks bribed us sufficiently"
Janus Henderson Shifts to Defensive Stance After Q1 Edge
Janus Henderson Flexible Bond Fund slightly edged its benchmark in Q1 📈. Managers leaned into risk-on trades like corporate bonds & Japan duration, but are now playing defense—trimming duration & staying cautious on high-yield. A "two-way market" ahead with tariffs...
Equities Stagnant, Shift Focus to Rates, Gold, Oil
Update. All positions the same. Though i bought some more gold for beta DSAlpha up 90bp underperforming its target return by 350bp YTD. DSSmartbeta up 7% YTD outperfoming its 10% YoY target and set at 72% of risk...
ESLR Reform Fuels Unprecedented Repo Activity Surge
Not since the QE heyday of the first Covid lockdown have we seen repo activity surge like this. The driver is the eSLR reform - still vastly underappreciated by many. We’ve been on top of this and see it as THE...
Master Project Revenue Estimation in One Detailed Guide
I’ve been working on a doozy of a newsletter issue to answer a question I get a lot: 👉 How do you estimate the revenue a project will create? I finally wrote a detailed guide on it. It’s going out in tomorrow’s...
AI in Finance: Hype Meets Reality, No Boom Yet
Interesting article in the FT on the impact of AI: "as AI fever sweeps finance, it is neither delivering the profit nirvana predicted by tech evangelists nor hastening the doom the Cassandras have warned about. Or at least not yet" https://t.co/JXXNXvKMkV https://t.co/H6tOUYaxoK
Disney's 6‑Month Buyback Nears 7‑Year Total
Disney repurchased ~$5.5 billion of stock over the past six months (1H FY26) By comparison, they had repurchased ~$6.5 billion over the prior seven years https://t.co/5jwsluX54g
Gundlach Pushes Demand for His Own Holdings
Already taken 3x calls this morning on this nonsense story. Just Gundlach trying to generate demand for something he already owns. Create liquidity and get lower coupons bid up on the spline.
Buyers' Power Peaks in 2026—Secure Better Deals
Buyers got a lot more power in 2026… Take advantage of it and get a lot better deals this year. Below are the questions I am asking and things I am doing https://t.co/FLxg2Navyh
Wendy's System Upgrade Costs $15‑20M, Aims Long‑Term Gains
System optimization is a "net headwind of $15 million to $20 million" to Wendy's revenue, but company believes it's better for the long-term health of the system. $WEN
U.S. Holds $49B Intel Stake, Locked Until Aug 27
INTC Aug 27 mark your calendars. The Intel deal included $8.9 billion for 10% of Intel at $20.47 a share. As of Wednesday afternoon, the U.S. government’s 433.3 million shares in Intel were valued around $49 billion, $40 billion more...
Tax Cuts without Spending Cuts Simply Increase the Deficit
Lemme ’splain: calling it a “big beautiful bill” doesn’t make the maths prettier. If you cut taxes and don’t cut spending, the deficit goes up. That’s not ideology. That’s just arithmetic wearing sensible shoes. https://t.co/s6DzR88EeI
Elliott Targets Daikin: Cut Costs, Boost ROE, Unlock Value
Shareholder activist Elliott's 27 April 2026 case for Japanese HVAC company Daikin: 1. Technology edge in inverter systems, refrigerant systems, compressors 2. Has been growing market share from 10% in 2015 to 14% last year, suggesting brand strength 3. The global HVAC market...
ROIC Misleads M&A Value by Ignoring Timing
Michael Mauboussin on why ROIC is a poor measure when it comes to M&A "ROIC is an inappropriate way to assess M&A because the cost (invested capital) is reflected immediately and the benefit (NOPAT) comes over time. Most deals, even those...
Saints Free $4M Cap Space by Converting Werner Salary
The New Orleans #Saints converted $5.035M of LB Pete Werner's salary into signing bonus, creating $4.028M of 2026 cap space. Updated Cap Hits 2026: $3.9M 2027: $9.2M 2028: $5.3M (void)
Panthers Carve Out $13.1M 2026 Cap Space
The Carolina #Panthers processed a salary conversion on CB Jaycee Horn's contract, moving $16.4M into signing bonus, adding 1 void year - creating $13.1M of 2026 cap space. Updated Cap Hits 2026: $10.9M 2027: $25.9M 2028: $31.8M 2029: $33.9M 2030: $3.2M (void)
Free QuickBooks Online Cheat Sheet From Top Finance Leaders
Quickbooks Online Cheat Sheet 🤓 Learn how to navigate one of the most widely used software’s in Finance & Accounting === We asked 9 of the top finance leaders to open their playbooks. They said yes. Spots are limited. I'd grab one. Register for free:...
Relegation's Hidden Long‑term Financial Toll on Clubs
What's the REAL cost of Premier League relegation for most clubs in the long term? https://t.co/hkE3FxxtxV
AI Empowers Finance Teams to Focus on Strategy
🤖 AI in FP&A gives finance professionals more time for strategy, decision-making & business impact. At the 28th AI FP&A Committee meeting, Tanbir Jasimuddin explored AI-driven productivity, insights, decision support, Agentic AI & AI maturity: https://t.co/yeh8X85ERx #aiinfpa