Finance Social Media and Updates
Finance Social Media and Updates
Finance Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Privatization with a wide ~18% spread. Insiders with majority control are buying out the company’s operations at a price slightly above its cash value. https://t.co/Pesdx9I3wK
New filing for T-Strive Digital Credit ETF which will hold the preferred securities of DATs. T-Strive is new issuer too, joint production by Tuttle and Strive. https://t.co/xxbAAOmVEH
"The mental habit of thinking backwards forces objectivity." – Charlie Munger. Many investors look at $FICO and see a perfect toll-bridge. But to truly understand it, you have to try to disprove the thesis. That's what I did. I just published Part...
Congrats, a sale is imminent. While it ain't real until the check clears, as Mozart used to say, let's talk about what happens to you personally when the deal goes through. In 8 out of 10 acquisitions, the CFO gets...
From Waterloo to the Iran conflict, the pattern hasn't changed. When governments go to war, bondholders pay. New research from Northwestern, Stanford, Columbia and UT Austin: 300 years of data, 14% average real losses in the first four years of war....
Widely discussed risks are often priced in. The real threats tend to be overlooked. #RiskManagement #MarketInsight https://t.co/PWgmCJwWDp
EPF’s abstention was a signal. Formal rejection is a verdict. The investment committee has turned down Sunway’s RM3.15 offer. Says the offer does not reflect IJM’s intrinsic value. EPF holding 20.52%, PNB at 13.3% already rejecting, together with other government-linked funds owning...
Nidec governance shock: shareholder demands suit; accounting probe + Moody’s downgrade cut credit & earnings visibility. Risk: litigation, restatements. Trade: Cut Nidec exposure pending report. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
I rarely get into twitter (X) debates. As a founder I have always wondered how so many outsiders have opinions about a business. With the @emergentlabs revenue rate debate - here are a few points to consider 1. A private...
Private-credit fund managers are playing down exposure to software One of a Blackstone fund’s biggest bets, over $1 billion of loans to Inovalon, was categorized as “IT Services,” not included in software exposure Inovalon calls itself: “a software company that empowers...
Think of the 1-year forward 1-year inflation swap as a market gauge for the current inflation vs growth battle. At the start of the war, the forward measure surged higher along with the current 1-year swap as inflation concerns dominated, but...
Sobering new read: Liability management maneuvers (LME) often fail to protect L-T value. Per @FitchRatings firms that undertook LMEs btw 2016 & H1 2025 before filing bankruptcy experienced recoveries for first-lien debt of ~39% vs recoveries of ~68% for firms w/o...
Insurers and reinsurers are 30x+ leveraged. If your conclusion is "leverage is nothing like with subprime" then you are missing the point. Completely.
Dave from accounting doesn't compare to OpenClaw... Turns out context is expensive. 😭 Here's some things to consider running OpenClaw 👇 https://t.co/KENR64ykSa
BlackRock slashed two private credit loans from par value to zero in months. Ares is limiting withdrawals, and Blue Owl has halted them. The cracks in private credit are spreading. IS PRIVATE CREDIT MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN? https://t.co/FBZ2JFNGtC
Stock valuations are compressing sharply even as earnings estimates keep rising. The S&P 500 forward P/E has fallen 16% while the index itself is down just 8.7%. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/QZg0BjpnPg
"Liquidity and solvency ratios are valuation inputs, not accounting trivia." Liquidity and solvency ratios aren’t just numbers, they show the real health of a company.
While SaaS multiples have contracted meaningfully, 20-30% revenue CAGR since 2021 means that revenue has increased 150-250%, counteracting much of the multiple contraction from an LTV perspective (assuming no dividend recaps). Growth solves a lot of problems over time.
Heatmaps aren’t enough anymore for cyber risk. Leaders want to understand financial impact, not just red, yellow, green. https://buff.ly/zGxWwLP
Old model: Give 20% to VCs at Series A, spread a 10-20% option pool across 30+ heads - each person gets 0.25-1.5%. AI-native model: Skip the round entirely. Founders hold majority. If you need more folks, vest them at 3-5%+ each. Smaller...
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
OUT NOW - @LeylaKuni on the turn in private credit: - redemptions from semi-liquid vehicles are rising - Business Development cos (BDCs) - where she is seeing greatest risks & opportunities Apple https://t.co/Bo97jddHak Spotify https://t.co/LktgvzsRaN https://t.co/BISkrZhVO0
There’s a question I’ve been mulling for a while now, and I think it’s time to write it down: when is it okay to use generative AI in a given business context, and when does it cross a line? I’ll...
🔺 Is the "old era" of compliance finally dead? 🪦 In this episode of Fintech Conversations & Insights, Beth Haddock (Stablecoin Standard) explains why the GENIUS Act is forcing a total rethink of financial infrastructure. We dive into: ❌ Why "Honeypot" data collection...
As private credit's troubles mount, it's natural to wonder if it could lead to another financial crisis, as with subprime. I spent some time studying the parallels. Here's my answer. https://t.co/bmRhA0D1v4 https://t.co/u5Kj2GHdDc
SaaS valuations just hit multi-year lows — while growth is stabilizing. Over the past 12 months, the setup has quietly flipped 👇 • Median EV/Sales fell to 3.44x (at ATL) • NTM revenue growth rebounded to +14% YoY Valuations compressed. Growth held. Growth expectations stopped...
With the Mag 7 rolling over, is there a good case to be make that the last 10 years of outperformance was just a giant Debt-for-Equity swap from taxpayers (more tax dollars allocated to unfunded pensions) to the top 1%...
GREEDFLATION? "JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, reported a $617 million adjusted operating loss for its beef business over the past year. A year earlier, the loss was $37 million." https://t.co/0kC8Fa6JhE https://t.co/yOxDcuW5oa
I get it - volatility makes people nervous. But my job isn’t to panic. My job is to deploy capital. Whether the market is up 700 points or down 700 points, I ask one question: What has actually changed? Most people react emotionally....
While boarding my flight to New York City for a Serial Acquirers conference, I got a call from my non-entrepreneurial friend, who asked how on earth I was willing to travel all the way from Europe just to stay a...
AI is making the penalty for being mediocre massive. And that is why the profit-focused path (and PE’s traditional playbook) is broken. These company valuations will be crushed over time. Maybe <1.5x ARR…Fine if you are bootstrapped, but completely broken for any...
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
The illusion of two viable paths will destroy lots of valuations. There is only one path…accelerate or die. The profitability path will seem like a good alternative, but here is what will happen New post 👇 https://t.co/cg40nUY4gq
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Ares capped redemptions at 5% after requests hit 11.6%. Apollo also restricted. Private credit default rate: 5.8% (Fitch). Morgan Stanley warns 8%. The next subprime is always the one nobody's watching. $HYG $BXSL https://t.co/B1Kim7zMg9
Every time I am asked how concerned I am about private credit, blue owl and so forth: https://t.co/CpLdqG23BS
Michael Mauboussin on ROIC and Competitive Advantage If a business has a high ROIC from a high NOPAT margin, focus on differentiation If a business has a high ROIC from a high invested capital turnover, focus on cost leadership Very few businesses...
The $NDX forward PE ratio has dropped to 21.09. In September 2022 it was at 18.96. The $SPX forward PE is at 20.53. We're approaching the point where tech will start outperforming again. It doesn't make sense for tech to...
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Why some business deals look amazing—until you do the math properly. https://t.co/1vSKngieRj #SmallBusiness & Deal Making #SMB https://t.co/wb8AmKBfnA
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
The US' Achilles heel in this conflict - much as in the tariff confrontation with China a year ago - is financial markets. Those are flashing red as uncertainty mounts. We have lots of skeletons in the closet in private...
SaaS valuations based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth. • $NET sits far above the curve — 29% growth but trading at 26x Forward EV/Sales. Market pricing in AI + platform dominance. • $APP combines high...
$LVMH laid out the strategy driving their acquisitions in 2002 Holding so many different luxury goods businesses would help to balance the cyclicality of each category. “Wines and spirits are stable businesses with long cycles” versus luxury fashion and ready-to-wear...
People always ask me how I plan for big expenses without blowing my budget. And my mentor taught me about sinking funds. Here’s how they work and why I keep mine in a high-yield savings account. 🧵
Not all margin compression is bad news. Sometimes a company is spending to build something that doesn't show up in this quarter's numbers. They could have cut spending and reported prettier margins. But they chose the franchise over the optics.
The Lido Development Committee proposes using up to 10,000 stETH from the Lido DAO treasury to purchase LDO, with the condition that the LDO will be returned to the treasury if market conditions remain favorable. https://t.co/JDd9hb09HI
Love the anecdote about Nygren’s analyst pitching Netflix: - Anecdotal survey showed his colleagues valued Netflix higher than any other subscription - If Netflix raised its price to their level, it would have traded at 14x P/E https://t.co/SlDjNAkwbF https://t.co/cVAQ97b2Pr
