China’s Agency Holdings Drop, Canada and Europe Gain
A little fun with the TIC data -- China's Agency holdings are down a lot the last few years: they are now about 150b v a peak of over 250b. But there is more going on to. Canadian holdings are up and large, and there is a rise in the holdings of European financial centers 1/ https://t.co/jtxLUgeZVv
Timing, Valuation, and Structure Outweigh Strategic Fit in M&A
1/🧵Respectfully disagree with the framing here. The strategic logic of combining Tesla and SpaceX may be sound — but timing, valuation, and structure matter enormously in M&A. A few points worth considering:
65 Companies That Ate Their Own Shares
"Pay close attention to the cannibals – the businesses that are eating themselves by buying back their stock" -Charlie Munger Here are 65 Stocks that have bought back 10%+ of their outstanding shares in the last decade:
Blue Owl Cashes $117M on SpaceX, Retains 1.7% Stake
Blue Owl sold half of its SpaceX shares in Q1, banking a $117.3 million gain in its Technology Finance private credit fund $OTF It now holds 250k SpaceX shares worth $133 million (1.7% of NAV), an 11-bagger from cost https://t.co/d3kVv11EEc
2.3% BTC Growth Can Sustain Dividends Forever
Strategy just said, "If BTC price appreciates by just 2.3% annually, we can fund all our dividends indefinitely." https://t.co/JeNVp8sfMj
APP Appears 50% Undervalued with Explosive Growth
I think $APP does at least 56% revenue growth in 2026 and at least 42% revenue growth in 2027... which gets them to $12B+ revenues in 2027... assuming 84% ebitda margins... $APP now trading at less than 16x 2027 ev/ebitda...
Equity Is Just the Residual After Debt Gets Paid
Most investors think equity is an asset. Graham knew better. Equity is what's left over after everyone else gets paid. Debt holders eat first. Preferred holders next. You're last in line. Leverage doesn't just add risk, it determines whether you survive to collect...
Dormant Accounts Suddenly Warn Tesla Merger Loss
I am astonished by the aggressiveness of some accounts I never heard about and when I check them out they have hardly posted anything for years. And now they suddenly wake up and already know that the merger is going to...
Flutter Trims 2024 Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts
Flutter lowers guidance: revenue is now expected to be $18.305b with adjusted EBITDA of $2.865bn at the midpoint, a reduction from previous guidance of $18.4bn and $2.97bn in revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations, respectively
Bumble's Q1 Woes Mask 30% Earnings Yield
I wrote an update on Bumble after Q1. Still a messy setup: users are down, the stock is hated, and the new loan is expensive. But bumble remains highly cash generative and I get to a near 30% owner earnings...
Staying the Course: TMDX’s Long‑Term Thesis Remains Intact
Excellent post (below) on $TMDX, I'll do another detailed post in the next few days however in the meantime I'm doing calls with sell-side analysts and management. Here's what I'll say for now... Today is obviously frustrating for long-term shareholders but I...
Seeking VC Experience with OTC Swaption Trading
question: can anyone name a VC that has priced and traded OTC swaptions for a portfolio company?
Starlink Pricing Tomorrow, but Not the Expected Service
Starlink will price tomorrow to officially IPO on Friday. Unfortunately, it is not the Starlink that most were hoping for. https://t.co/bU2RJ3QXQp
Embrace Risk: Fear Hinders Financial Goal Achievement
Risk is a normal part of investing, and people who fear losing money may be holding themselves back from reaching their financial goals. https://t.co/okLu5Ac0bj
AI Compute Costs Equal XAI’s Quarterly Loss
This likely costs about ~$500m a month, ~$6bn a year to rent blended Which is about the run rate net loss of xai end of q1 Anthropics revenue run rate was $9bn end of 2025, $30bn a month ago
NMFC's 65‑cent Loan Profit Raises Seller Mystery
NMFC bragging about a loan they bought at 65 cents. It’s now at 75. Mgmt is telling investors the strategy is paying off. The bigger question: who sold it at 65?
Griffin Launches Project Financing Fund for Indie Studios
Good news for indie game studios. Griffin is turning to project financing with a new fund, in addition to its traditional VC investments. https://t.co/47axlCnNYv https://t.co/cS1gcIJjLn
RDS Mining Injects $20M to Fund O'Brien Gold Drilling
A C$20M bought-deal financing from @RDSMining is a serious cash injection for the O’Brien story and will include more deep drilling. As JV puts it, this additional capital buys more shots on goal—or more aptly, shots on #gold. Overweight position:...
LLMs Likely Mirror Mediocre Funds, Not Market Alpha
I respect the hustle but the concept that an LLM can beat the market, unless very carefully deployed, is, in my opinion, very dubious. Alpha in public markets follows a power law distribution. We see this in multiple dimensions: > 92% of...
Public Acquires Investing Education Startup in Fintech M&A
Love to see it: More big fintech M&A from @Public, acquiring an investing education startup. https://t.co/ea217OjQp0
AI COGS Redefine SaaS Finance After Decade
Last month marked 10 years of creating SaaS finance content. I grabbed an open domain name, and that accidentally became my brand today. You could say things have changed a bit over the past 10 years. Did I think I'd...
BWEN Sells Wind Assets, Cash Use Remains Unclear
$BWEN finally selling wind business is what it should have done a long time ago, or at the very least, last year when they disposed of a related asset. Will they burn through $19M in cash from the sale or...
Skipping Low-Rate Debt Terming Proved Costly
And NO terming out the debt when rates were low was NOT a good idea
Treasury Repo Investment Could Slightly Lower Rates
TGA invested in repo idea 101 A little tidbit in the weeds that will definetly get overblown by people on here Currently the treasury keeps its checking account with the Fed. Which because it's part of the consolidated balance sheet of...
Credit Risk Hinges on Underwriting, Not Origination Source
Apollo CEO Marc Rowan on firm's 1Q call: "The notion that a loan is somehow riskier because it wasn't originated by a bank is not a coherent argument. Private credit is just credit. You underwrite it well and it performs....
Rate Hike Odds Drop, Swap Spreads Widen, Bonds Rally
Bond trader friendly moves this morning: '27 hike odds lower, swap spreads wider, long-end bid.... Y'all should be happy now.
QRA Unchanged as Treasury Sticks to Yellen‑style Bill Strategy
QRA no change in auction sizes, no change in language, @SecScottBessent continues to follow the Yellen playbook and rely on 20%+ bills outstanding to suppress interest rates. That said this was entirely expected
Hyperscalers' Cash Flow to Plunge 70% by 2026
"Wall Street projects hyperscalers’ free cash flow to fall by over 70% from its peak by the end of 2026, even as earnings keep climbing" BCA Research via John Authers, BBG
Telesat's Lightspeed Advances Amid GEO Debt Crunch
.@Telesat: Lightspeed constellation network development, inc gateways & user terminals, on track.Downward spiral of GEO business continues; how to refinance $1.7B in debt maturing this Dec remains an issue. @Intellian @MDA_space.https://t.co/n8DnGZGmlF https://t.co/Yh8RP7C7Fv
Financial Stability Depends on Global Collective Resilience
From the Financial Times column “We must be mindful of the risks of private credit,” by Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England and Chair of the Financial Stability Board): “We must remember that financial stability is a global...
Audit Every Financial Model to Avoid Career‑Costly Mistakes
How to Audit a Financial Model 🕵️♂️ Building a financial model is only half of the game... === We asked 9 of the top finance leaders to open their playbooks. They said yes. Spots are limited. I'd grab one. Register for free: https://t.co/P5XyaqkF5g === Most of the...
Easing Tensions Historically Trigger Bond Price Declines
i'm old enough to remember the days when headlines suggesting easing tensions and less uncertainty would mean bond prices fell... https://t.co/KaynvMrU0Q
Intrinsic Value, Not Book Value, Determines True Share Worth
“Of course, it's per-share intrinsic value, not book value, that counts. Book value is an accounting term that measures the capital, including retained earnings, that has been put into a business. Intrinsic value is a present-value estimate of the cash...
UK Gilts Rise on Oil Dip Amid US‑Iran Deal Hopes
A better morning for UK gilts as oil prices fall sharply after a US media report that America and Iran are “very close” to a deal. While the drop in yields is welcome, expect continued volatility in the days ahead, driven...
RFX Profit Upgrade Lifts P/E, Cuts Dividend Yield
#RFX upgraded FY profit guidance. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 7.2 RISING to 10.2 and fwd Divvy 6% FALLING to 4.2% BEFORE 9% jump today. Highly dependent on Gold Price. I don't hold.
UK Long-Term Borrowing Costs Reach 1998 High
UK long-term borrowing costs hit their HIGHEST LEVELS since 1998. RUSSOPHOBE STARMER IS CAPTAINING A SINKING SHIP. https://t.co/BBGoJG8ZMz
Sovereign Wealth Funds: Backdoor Fiscal Expansion via Investor-Controlled Spending
In this piece, I look at the outbreak of Western Sovereign Wealth Funds from Canada's new proposal to the UK's NWF and conclude they're mostly a way to raise money for industrial policy projects without flipping out bond markets. Aka...
Premier League Cuts Club Payouts, Spikes Staff and Director Costs
Premier League submit 24/25 accounts to Companies House, signed off on 4 December 2025 and received by Companies House on 29 March 2026 (second class post is worse than ever these days). ⚽️Revenue £3.649 bn ⬆️ 0.3% ⚽️Distributed to clubs £2.818 bn...
CME Launches Cash‑Settled Bitcoin Volatility Futures for Institutions
CME Group just announced cash-settled Bitcoin volatility futures. This new product gives institutions a clean way to trade BTC vol directly on the world’s biggest derivatives exchange. Another big step for mature crypto market infrastructure. https://t.co/BP1605bUkl
India’s Cautious Stance Overlooks Decades of Foreign‑owned Success
In an article today in Bloomberg the journalists talk about how Shriram Finance deal is a test deal for India because of (among others) "India's guarded embrace of foreign capital" Who will tell these guys about presence of very high (even...
Bonds Still Offer Real Returns and Diversification
Man advisors are so insanely negative on bonds. Bad takes everywhere... Facts: - Yes, stock/bond correlations have become positive at time. Yet the concept of diversification doesn’t hinge on perfect negative correlation. It simply requires that assets behave differently, and even today,...
Nebius Earnings Depend on Q1 Operating Cash Flow
Nebius’ next earnings could hinge on one key number: Operating Cash Flow. Strong OCF = self-funded growth. Weak OCF = possible dilution. All eyes on Q1. 📉 NBIS
Alphabet's 72× FCF Valuation Risks Stagnant Cash Flow
With a $4.67 trillion market cap, Alphabet trades for 72.4 times free cash flow. The capital expenditure ramp-up has been droning on since Covid, leaving FCF in sideways limbo for a couple years now. How long the market will give...
Big Ten FY25 Tax Filing Highlights and FY26 Outlook
Our deep dive into the Big ten's tax filings for FY25: - the SEC distribution comps - the West Coast impact - the Ore/UW half-share squeeze - what's coming in FY26 (link below)
Creditor Conflict Shifts: From Companies to Private Co‑Ops
Evolution of creditor warfare: 10 years ago: creditors vs company 5 years ago: creditor vs creditor via doc changes (drop-downs, priming) Today: creditor vs creditor via private co-op Preview of the software maturity wall https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekly-the-co-op-is-the-trade
Saylor's Bitcoin Bet Costs $12.5B in Q1
JUST IN: Michael Saylor's Strategy posted a $12.54 billion Q1 loss due to declining bitcoin price.
CFOs Must Revise Chart of Accounts for AI
CFOs...I know we don't want to add more general ledger accounts, but our COA must change with AI. This is for both internal AI productivity and AI delivered through our products. I was on a panel at Sage Future last...
Spanx Loan Devaluation Signals Trouble for Blackstone Stake
It appears that shapewear company Spanx is now in distress, as its private credit loan was just marked down to 70 cents on the dollar. As a reminder, Blackstone acquired a majority stake in the company in 2021 at a...
Eurodollar Market Independent of Dollar
Disagree here obviously -- The modern eurodollar market developed independently of dollar pegging; the UK is the market's hub and the pound obviously isn't pegged to the dollar ... 1/2
Credit Spreads Vary 42x Across Data Center Firms
The credit market is the harshest judge of risk. Looking at credit default swaps of data center companies, a few things stand out: • The market is starting to believe there is less risk (although still very high) for Nebius and CoreWeave...