What a ‘Blockade’ in the Strait of Hormuz Really Means
President Trump announced a limited "blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. Navy to deploy the Arleigh‑Burke destroyers USS Michael Murphy and USS Frank E. Petersen for mine‑clearance operations. The effort relies heavily on allied mine‑countermeasure forces from the UK, France, the Netherlands and others, because U.S. destroyers lack dedicated minesweeping capability. While the current force of roughly fifteen warships can support a narrow mission that restricts Iranian port traffic, a full closure of the strait would demand dozens of additional ships, air assets, logistics and sustained intelligence. The distinction between a political headline and the operational reality has major implications for global oil flow and U.S. naval readiness.
How the US Navy and Economic Sanctions Aim to Squeeze the Iranian Regime
On April 13 the United States launched a naval blockade of vessels entering Iranian ports, extending its economic‑statecraft campaign against Tehran. The operation targets the IRGC‑run “toll booth” on Larak Island and seeks to interdict ships—including Chinese‑flagged COSCO vessels—that pay Iran...
Two Allocators, One View: Liquidity, Cost and Control Behind CTA ETF Adoption
Institutional investors such as Sweden’s AP3 and Norway’s Aars family office are increasingly turning to trend‑following CTA ETFs to boost liquidity, cut costs, and maintain full portfolio transparency. Both firms view the ETF format as a practical complement to in‑house...
The Hormuz Crisis and the Oil Market: Spot Vs. Futures – A Straightforward Classroom Explanation
The article uses an Econ‑101 lens to explain why physical (spot) oil prices surged while futures lagged during the recent Hormuz Strait crisis. It attributes the spot spike to immediate shipping disruptions and highlights the divergence as a symptom of...
Brits to Get Paid to Use Electricity
British households and factories will receive payments to increase electricity consumption during periods of excess renewable generation, a move aimed at soaking up surplus power and easing grid strain. The scheme introduces market‑based demand flexibility, helping to curb curtailment of...
Keep Cash Flow Steady by Auto‑Aligning Bills to Payday
PayAlign is an AI‑powered cash‑flow timing platform that automatically aligns users’ recurring bills with their payday. By connecting bank accounts, the service maps inflows and outflows, then shifts due dates or negotiates billing cycles to prevent overdrafts and late fees....
Capitalising on the Emerging Market Resurgence
BlueBay Emerging Market Unconstrained Bond Fund won the Hedge Journal’s 2026 UCITS Hedge Award for best risk‑adjusted returns in the emerging‑market credit space. The fund posted mid‑to‑high‑teens annual returns in 2023, 2024 and 2025—about three times its cash‑plus‑4‑6% target—while expanding...
Point72 Takes Early Q1 Lead Over Citadel and Millennium:
Point72 has emerged as the early 2026 performance leader among multi‑manager hedge‑fund platforms, outpacing rivals Citadel and Millennium. The firm’s edge stems from aggressive AI‑infrastructure exposure and a highly adaptive pod‑shop model that reallocates capital swiftly. Elevated equity dispersion this...
Goldman Sachs’ Private Credit Fund Weathers “Redemption Wave”
Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp successfully fulfilled all first‑quarter redemption requests, drawing down just 4.999% of its 5% quarterly limit. In contrast, peers such as Blue Owl and Apollo imposed gates as redemption pressure mounted across the private‑credit sector. Goldman’s...
Hedge Funds Pivot Bullish on Geopolitical Hopes:
Hedge funds have flipped from defensive short‑bias to net‑long exposure for the first time in eight weeks, spurred by optimism that diplomatic talks may defuse tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs’ client note cites aggressive short covering and...
MachTen: A Mispriced Rural Fiber Infrastructure Play
MachTen Inc. (OTC:MACT) recently acquired AT&T’s wireline assets in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, expanding its network by thousands of miles. The company is executing a $100 million fiber build‑out in northern Michigan, with roughly 75% of the cost covered by federal subsidies...
What My Proprietary Indicator Says About Silver
The author revisits his Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), a proprietary tool built from gold and copper data, to gauge silver's trajectory. The SSPI’s 200‑day moving average remains upward‑sloping, indicating an ongoing uptrend despite a two‑month pullback. Both the SSPI...
Closed Strait Gets Blockaded, Leaving Global Economy In Danger Zone...
The United States Navy launched a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran shut the waterway last week, intensifying a standoff that began with failed cease‑fire talks. Washington’s move is intended to cripple Iran’s ability to sell oil and...
Cliff Asness on Diversification: The Real Risk Investors Miss
Cliff Asness and AQR argue that a recent positive stock‑bond correlation is not a cure for diversification problems. The report warns investors against swapping bonds for assets that merely track equities, such as private credit, leveraged equity products, or Bitcoin....
Top Superinvestors Are Buying Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
Recent 13F filings reveal a wave of institutional buying in Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), with major investors such as Point72, Fisher Asset Management, and Bridgewater increasing stakes by billions of dollars. The purchases reflect confidence in Broadcom’s AI‑driven semiconductor demand, pricing...
Letter #326: Brian Halligan and Dharmesh Shah (2014)
HubSpot’s 2014 IPO shareholder letter recounts how founders Brian Halligan and Dharmesh Shah turned a simple observation—people reject interruptive outbound tactics—into the inbound marketing movement. They built an integrated platform that bundles CMS, SEO, social, and automation tools, making it...
Six Weeks to No Fuel at All
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February, and the last tanker that cleared the waterway on February 28 is expected to arrive around April 20, ending the flow of pre‑closure oil stocks. Once those inventories are exhausted, global...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for April 10, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields softened across most maturities for the week ending April 10, 2026, with the benchmark 10‑year rate slipping 0.04 percentage points to 4.31%. The 3‑year note posted a yield of 3.80%, while the 30‑year Treasury held steady at...
TMTB EOD Wrap
The Nasdaq‑100 tracking QQQ rose 1.05% as investors digested calmer rhetoric from Trump and Iran and a continuing ceasefire, lifting risk appetite. Oil jumped 1.5% on the same optimism, while Treasury yields slipped 3‑4 basis points, nudging Fed expectations toward...
SILVER IS THE TRIPLE-IDENTITY ASSET: China's $48T M2 Explosion, Countries Hoarding Silver, the Export Ban, the Structural Deficit, & Why...
China’s broad money supply (M2) has surged past $48 trillion, dwarfing the combined US and EU totals, and is expected to add $4.5 trillion in 2025 alone. The expansion is prompting both the state and citizens to hoard hard assets, especially silver,...
CHINA TO BAN SULFURIC ACID EXPORTS: Copper and Uranium Mining Impacted, Bullish and Bearish Catalyst, Who Loses, & This Mining...
China announced it will halt exports of byproduct sulfuric acid starting in May 2026. The acid is a core reagent for heap‑leaching copper and uranium ores, so the ban threatens to raise input costs and curb output in mining hubs...
Iran War; US-China; Xi Meets KMT Chair; Li on the Economy; Countering Unlawful Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Measures
China has expressed strong displeasure over the United States’ blockade of Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, warning that a prolonged restriction could exacerbate stress on its own economy as many of those ships carry Chinese cargo. The Crown...
It's Like We Fell Down an Escalator That's Going up ↙️
The S&P 500 slipped 9% from its Jan. 27 peak of 6,978.60 to a Mar. 30 low of 6,343.72, a pullback that falls short of a classic bear market and below the 14‑18% intra‑year declines typical of election cycles. While...
BRICS Payment System – What Does It Mean for the Nordics?
The article examines the BRICS countries’ effort to build a cross‑border payment system that could be operational by 2029‑2030, offering an alternative to Western‑controlled settlement rails. It notes the New Development Bank’s role, having approved over $42.9 billion in loans and...
The Alternative Minimum Tax and Stock Options: A Complete Guide for Washington Startup Employees
The guide explains how the federal Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) hits incentive stock options (ISOs) and how Washington’s new tax regime reshapes planning. The 2026 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raises the AMT exemption to $90,100 for singles and $140,200...
RSUs and Washington State's New Taxes: What Seattle Tech Employees Need to Know
Washington’s new tax regime adds a 7‑9.9% capital‑gains levy (effective 2025) and a 9.9% broad‑based income tax (effective 2028) that together reshape the cost of restricted stock units for Seattle tech workers. RSU vesting is ordinary income, so any vesting...
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[NEW] Cliff Note #139: Special Situation - A Company Where the Bankruptcy Is the Catalyst, Not the Problem
Cliff Note #139 spotlights a rare scenario where a company’s bankruptcy acts as a catalyst rather than a terminal event. With a pending lawsuit cleared, the firm can resume its growth plan and aim for industry leadership. Analysts project that...
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Over The Weekend
Mortgage rates held steady near 6.40% for the third consecutive day, despite bond market swings triggered by weekend news of the Iran conflict. The average top‑tier 30‑year fixed rate edged 0.02 % higher than Friday before modest mid‑day declines brought it...
Daily Energy Report
OPEC left its global oil supply and demand forecasts unchanged despite the Iran war’s disruptive impact. The organization projects crude demand to reach 106.53 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026 and 107.87 mb/d in 2027, with a softer second‑quarter offset by...
New SPACs: Irenic Acquisition Corp. (IACQU), Alpex Acquisition Corporation File for IPOs
Irenic Acquisition Corp. (ticker IACQU) and Alpex Acquisition Corp. have each filed Form S‑1 to launch new special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Irenic aims to raise roughly $200 million to pursue targets in technology and clean‑energy sectors, while Alpex seeks a...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Grains opened the week higher, led by wheat gains after rain fell across the Southern Plains. Reduced global grain production forecasts from U.S. competitors and a strong energy complex further buoyed prices. Soybeans showed mixed movement, with the fourth day...
Euro Continues to Climb as the Market Senses an End to the Iran War
The euro has recovered to its pre‑conflict level as traders price an end to the Iran‑Israel war and the reopening of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe’s heavy reliance on Hormuz‑bound crude makes the currency especially sensitive to...
Prolonged Hormuz Strait Closure Would Have ‘Profound’ Impact on Mining: Friedland – by Frederic Tomesco (Northern Miner – April 13,...
Ivanhoe Mines co‑chairman Robert Friedland warned that a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would sharply tighten global sulfur markets, cutting roughly half of the seaborne sulfur supply. With about 20% of worldwide copper production dependent on sulfuric‑acid leaching,...
Forty Years After Chernobyl, Uranium Market Rebounds but Fragility Persists – by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou (Ecofin Agency – April 12,...
Forty years after the Chernobyl disaster, the uranium market has rebounded, with spot prices climbing to $101 per pound in early 2026. The surge reflects renewed global interest in civil nuclear power as part of the broader energy transition. Higher...
OPEC+ Data Deck (April 2026)
The latest OPEC+ Data Deck reveals a March production drop of 7,587 kbpd, bringing quota‑participating output to 28,312 kbpd – the second‑largest monthly decline on record and the lowest level for the expanded group since the 1990 Desert Storm period. The fall...
Global Physical Oil Supply Picture Is Dire - And Getting Worse
Physical oil is now trading at $149 per barrel for North Sea Forties, a stark contrast to futures contracts. The Iran‑Israel conflict and a U.S. blockade have pushed crude loss to 15 million barrels per day, pulling global stockpiles down by...
Mastering Zero DTE with Altos Trading: Unveiling the Golden One Day Options Trade and Market Insights
Altos Trading unveiled a systematic "Golden One Day" options play that targets zero‑days‑to‑expiration (Zero DTE) contracts. The strategy combines high‑probability entry signals with tight risk controls, aiming to capture daily market volatility while limiting capital exposure. Altos provides members with...
Bonds Are In 2026 What Stocks Were In 2008
Investors are eyeing bonds as aggressively as they chased stocks in 2008, driven by Treasury yields approaching 5% and 2‑year CD rates near 4%. The author notes that a sustained 5‑5.5% yield on 10‑20‑year insured municipal bonds would be compelling...
Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Futures Show This Will Be a Short-Run Problem (Why He's Wrong)
Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee argued that the steeply backwardated oil futures curve proves the current price spike is a short‑run issue. The article counters that backwardation reflects immediate physical scarcity and a high convenience yield, not a forecast of...
Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: A(nother) Look at Long/Short Direct Index Tax-Loss Harvesting
Leveraged long/short direct‑index tax‑loss harvesting (LSDI) lets investors swap a concentrated, high‑cost‑basis stock for a diversified basket without paying capital‑gains tax up front. The authors model a $10 million Shopify holding and find that manager fees—0.5% on the long side and...
Arxis (ARXS) IPO Deck
Arxis (ticker ARXS) has filed an initial public offering, presenting a deck that outlines its business of designing and manufacturing mission‑critical electronic and mechanical components for aerospace, defense, and specialized industrial customers. The company highlights its role supplying parts for...
Alamar Biosciences (ALMR) IPO Deck
Alamar Biosciences (ticker ALMR) is positioning its commercial‑stage proteomics platform for an initial public offering, as detailed in an investor deck released on April 13, 2026. The company’s technology delivers ultra‑sensitive protein biomarker detection, enabling researchers to identify disease signatures at earlier stages...
ADG 4/13: Squeeze Box
New research shows consumer‑grade AI chatbots struggle with medical diagnosis when patient information is sparse, often converging on a single answer too quickly. Meanwhile, Intel’s stock jumped 58% in early April, the best nine‑day rally ever, after announcing a $14.2 billion...
🎯 Take Profit Alert On XYZ and RCAT Cash Secured Puts
Options trader Edward Corona announced the closure of two cash‑secured put positions—Block Inc (XYZ) and Red Cat Holdings (RCAT). The XYZ put, entered on April 24 with a $54 strike, collected $130 in premium and realized a $106.50 profit, representing 81.9%...
Cities by the Bay
The article highlights that Hong Kong, Vancouver and San Francisco are three of the world’s most unaffordable housing markets, despite their relatively modest metropolitan populations. Geographic constraints—mountains, bays and limited flat land—restrict new construction, while booming finance and tech sectors pour global...
Illinois Cash Rents and Leasing Expectations Through 2027
The Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers survey shows cash‑rent rates on Illinois farmland remained robust in 2026, with median rents of $375 per acre for excellent soils and $325 for good soils. While 2025 cash‑rent returns...
Study On Pocket Listings
A recent discussion among real‑estate professionals highlights the growing role of pocket, or private, listings as an alternative to traditional open‑market auctions. Participants note that private listings become especially attractive during market slowdowns or when sellers set aspirational prices unlikely...
The Many Facets of Stock Momentum: Distinguishing Factor and Stock Components
The paper by Gerard and Jehl demonstrates a durable, stock‑specific momentum component that stems from price reactions around earnings announcements, distinct from traditional factor‑driven momentum. By isolating returns in short windows surrounding each firm’s earnings over the prior year, the...
AI IPOs Are Pricing Potential
AI-driven companies are increasingly going public before their products, markets, or models fully mature. Unlike traditional IPOs that are anchored in current revenue and margins, AI IPOs are priced largely on projected capability growth and scalability. This shift forces investors...
The Global Week Ahead
The United States has imposed a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil above $103 a barrel and raising the risk of direct conflict with Iran. Simultaneously, the IMF and World Bank are convening in Washington, where...