Liquidity Crisis Unfolds as Stocks, Bonds, Crypto Plunge
Stocks down. Bonds down. Crypto down. $SPY. $TLT. $BTC. All falling together. That's not a correction. That's a liquidity accident in slow motion. $VIX at 31 is the market finally saying the quiet part loud. https://t.co/APZJuN8Erb
Fundamentals Beat Luck: Prioritize Allocation, Horizon, Selection
Don't mistake a "lucky" market timing trade for a "good" investment strategy. True financial success is built on a boring foundation: ✅ Proper Asset Allocation ✅ A Long Investment Horizon ✅ Superior Stock Selection That doesn't mean that timing cannot add a few percentage points...
Nasdaq 100 P/E Drops Below Russell 2000 Valuation
Wow - Nasdaq 100 P/E now below that of the Russell 2000.. fractionally ... 24x GS https://t.co/L1wgeQ1E24
Post‑2008 Dollarisation Wave Restores 2000‑Era Share
Three distinct waves of dollarisation since the 1960s. The most recent wave, which emerged after the 2008 global crisis, pushed the dollar's share to nearly match its level from 2000, when the euro was introduced. https://t.co/A6TnrvTxXS
China’s Subsidies Surged Post‑Made in China 2025, Trade War
Industrial subsidies in China have increased dramatically. Notably, there was a sharp acceleration in subsidy levels following the launch of the “Made in China 2025” programme in 2015 and the onset of the US–China trade war in 2018. https://t.co/eFhIfiECI4
Fed Futures Show 28% Chance of October Hike
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL
Tech Valuations Lag Growth, Set to Outperform Soon
The $NDX forward PE ratio has dropped to 21.09. In September 2022 it was at 18.96. The $SPX forward PE is at 20.53. We're approaching the point where tech will start outperforming again. It doesn't make sense for tech to...
Early Masters Pairs Trade: Short Scheffler, Long Schauffele
Yes it's a few weeks away but not too early to start handicapping the @TheMasters. Here are a few @Kalshi @KalshiSports event contracts I am looking at and discussed on The Danny Moses Show...think of it as a "pairs trade",...
MFI at 25‑year Lows Signals Imminent Relief Rally
#NDX: Over the last 25 years, a relief rally has followed when the Money Flow Index reached current levels. There have been no exceptions, including the dot-com bubble in 2000, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2022 bear market. The...
Middle East Conflict Fuels Oil Surge, Exposing Europe’s Fragility
Energy shock exposes Europe’s vulnerability as oil prices surge Linda Yueh explains how Middle East conflict is driving oil volatility and heightening risks https://t.co/j96NMGNF8A
War Risks Renew Bond Market Crises Across Europe
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
This Week's Market Outlook: SPY, IWM, QQQ, GLD, TLT
What to expect from the stock market this week https://t.co/sWRedcbh21 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $GLD $TLT https://t.co/WrLLYF9aVB
Investors Distract Over “Trump Taco” Amid Market Decline
$SPY - Ok - let's think for a minute... Why are people talking about a "Trump Taco" when the market is a ~9% drawdown? Last time he waited until we were in roughly a 20% drawdown? Changing a tariff rate is also...
VIX Spikes on Gains Too, Not Just Losses
The VIX should spike on up days like it does down days. Volatility doesn't just happen one direction.
Wealth Grows by Spending Wisely, Earning More, Investing
Insurance and trusts are not how you build wealth, it’s how you protect wealth. Focus on controlling your spending, increasing your income, and investing consistently.
U.S. Gas Prices Up 30%, Still Below $5
Not all oil prices are created equal. There's only one that matters: what Americans pay at the pump. That price is up 30% from before the war (bottom right). That's up, but - at $4 a gallon - we're nowhere...
War‑Driven Supply Shock Meets Fading Peak‑Demand, Fueling Post‑Conflict Boom
Gulf War III is far from over. Long-term impacts are très TBD. But it's noteworthy that, just prior to the outbreak, the consensus peak-demand narrative for oil and gas began to crumble. Folks started to realize we're short...
Liquidity Decline Puts Market Volatility to New Test
My video for the week ahead: Market Volatility Faces New Test as Liquidity Drops and Data Builds (recorded before Friday's US tumble so even more relevant) https://t.co/fPTls4gx6p
Unified Wealth Strategy Prevents Generational Wealth Fragmentation
Fragmentation is the enemy of generational wealth. Most families don’t lose assets to bad investments. They lose them to bad structure — advisors operating independently, no unified plan, no liquidity strategy, no estate coordination. At ARH Global Advisors, we don’t manage wealth in...
Stagflation Era Begins: Overweight Energy, Trim Tech
US Equity Market Weekly Report - Week Ending March 28, 2026 Markets just hit their longest losing streak since 2022! Nasdaq officially in correction, oil exploding past $100, and three brutal shocks (Iran, China trade, and tech capex) turning stagflation into the...
Quarter of Global LNG Supply Offline After Attacks, Cyclone
And just like that, a quarter of global LNG supply is offline 🚢 ⚠️ Hormuz/Iran attacks have disrupted deliveries from Qatar and UAE Cyclone temporarily knocks out plants in Western Australia (Nice graphic from IEA’s Greg Molnar) https://t.co/ymJmTrTZGx
Oil May Rally to $109 Before Confirming Top
$USOIL - As I've already stated I think it made a major top at 119.48 but the top will not be confirmed until there's a weekly close below 90. The weekly candle is bullish and indicates that it may rally...
Silver Poised for Short‑term Bounce, Bull Market Ended
$Silver - Made a multi week low at the yearly pivot at 61. I expect a multi week bounce into late April/early May. The bounce could get to as high as the 1st yearly resistance at 94. The bull market...
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Gold Poised for Multi‑week Bounce to $5,028
$Gold - The weekly candle is bullish and indicates that it made a multi week low this week. I think it made a major top in late January and is following the 2011 price pattern. I expect a multi week...
Short‑term Yields Drop, Long‑term Rise; Gold Steadies
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Top Tax Tactics Advisors Use for High-Net-Worth Clients
Top 5 Tax Strategies Advisors Use With Wealthy Clients: Several effective tax planning strategies for high-net-worth clients, from tax-aware long-short investing to private placement life insurance and annuities to strategies for pre-liquidity business owners: https://t.co/bvOqLR93S1 (Cheryl Winokur Munk |...
Top Advisors Win Through Integrated, Multigenerational Wealth Engineering
What separates advisors at the highest level? Not access. Not products. Not performance. Structure. At a certain level of wealth, the issue isn’t complexity— it’s fragmentation. Real estate, insurance, and estate planning handled in silos. That’s where risk lives. A fiduciary approach requires: — Integration — Liquidity...
Energy Crisis Deepens Strain on Emerging Economies
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
Houthis Threaten Bab Al-Mandeb, Risking Saudi Pipeline Bypass
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Dow Jones Slides 10% Into Technical Correction
DOW JONES CORRECTION The Dow Jones just closed down by 10% from its most recent highs the technical definition of a Correction 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Mining Metal Supply Crisis Needs More Than Prices
I’m sure higher energy prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing wars will go a long way in solving the problem of getting mines to produce the metals we desperately need. The world still underestimates the scale of the problem: A lack of...
Stay Calm During 50% Market Drops or Underperform
"If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you're not fit to be a common shareholder - and you deserve the mediocre result you are going to...
Asset Supply Surges, Credit Stagnates Amid Wage Stagnation
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
Tax Drag Hurts: Optimize Asset Location for After‑Tax Gains
Tax drag in taxable accounts are a real drag. Ignoring asset location is straggling after-tax money.
Dissecting Iran War, Oil Shock: Macro, Narrative, Flow Insights
However you want to analyze the Iran war and oil shock, @CultishCreative and I have it covered on the latest Last Call on @excessreturnpod. @dampedspring on macro @EpsilonTheory on narrative @spotgamma on flows @ericpachman on what the jobs data misses https://t.co/bbX3cSwFWe
VIX Above 30 Signals Market Turbulence Ahead
VIX closed at 31, its highest weekly close since last year’s tariff sell-off. When $VIX holds above 30, things tend to break. In this episode, we talk through exactly what we’re watching and how to navigate this environment. Watch: https://t.co/WlGqDNQSk1 $SPY $QQQ...
AI‑driven SaaS Valuations: NET Overpriced, ZETA Underval
SaaS valuations based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth. • $NET sits far above the curve — 29% growth but trading at 26x Forward EV/Sales. Market pricing in AI + platform dominance. • $APP combines high...
Buy Market-Driven Drops, Not Market‑moving Losers
Winners in this market are really winning. Great chart from @AriWald this AM showing high beta winners (high momentum) reaching a new cycle high vs high beta losers (low momentum). "We like to buy stocks dropping because of the market,...
Stay Near Target Risk, Always Own Market Beta
If you are persistently leveraged long assets above your risk target you are doing it wrong and this month is a lesson. Consider moving to your risk target If you are perma bear and always underinvested and in...
Use Sinking Funds in High‑Yield Accounts for Big Expenses
People always ask me how I plan for big expenses without blowing my budget. And my mentor taught me about sinking funds. Here’s how they work and why I keep mine in a high-yield savings account. 🧵
Wealth Survives Generations only with Structured Systems
Wealth doesn't protect itself. Structure does. The difference between a family that holds onto wealth across generations and one that loses it isn't usually investment returns. It's whether anyone built a system around the money before something went wrong.
Weekend Podcast Breaks Down Iran War's Economic Impact
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
Natural Gas Soars While Tech and Mag7 Falter
Ideas for that are Working 2026 FCG Natural Gas Equities: +40% Big Tech QQQ: -9% Mag7 MAGS: -16% Bloomberg https://t.co/Ojdx0GXDHM
Rising Nominal Rates, Falling Real Rates Boost Gold
Many are attributing the fall in precious metals to rising real interest rates. That's wrong. Real rates (red) have fallen. The rise in nominal interest rates (black) is all about break-even inflation (blue) rising. That's fundamentally good for gold... https://t.co/5amZtGPz0B https://t.co/t11fMQc7JV
War Spikes Oil, Gold Falls, Bonds Surge Globally
Many things are happening simultaneously. War in the Middle East is spiking oil prices, gold has fallen and all the uncertainty is pushing up long bond yields, like in Japan where they're back to the highs. I'll talk about all...
War Risks Clash with Aggressive Central Bank Pricing
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a
Build a Checking Buffer, End Overdrafts Forever
I used to be an overdraft princess until I created a buffer in my checking account. Never overdrafted again.
Trade Pullbacks at New Highs, Rallies at New Lows
“Buy the first pullback after a new high, sell the first rally after a new low.” — Linda Raschke https://t.co/zMHrNzYgBM