Strait Closure Ripple Effects Threaten Sulphur, Copper, Global Markets
Further to what we said about the impact that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has on the sulphur market… and therefore African copper production… Craig Tindale maps out that this is only one small piece of a giant and critically important 3D jigsaw. 🧩 Craig succinctly explains step by step how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could over time unfold with resulting global impact, if we are collectively pushed to the brink. Everything affects everything, everywhere, all of the time. @ctindale
Learning Co‑Investing Secrets by Watching Benchmark’s Five Partners
In 1999-2000 Craig McCaw asked me to spend a lot of time working in the Benchmark offices on Sand Hill Road to find areas where co-investment was possible. I never learned so much, as Yogi Berra famously said, "just by...
Explore EWY Volatility Patterns with Handy YFinance Toolkit
The recent action in EWY fits a pattern that happens frequently enough to be worth understanding the SHAPE of its vol. You will find: 🌙handy measures 🌙inspiration for your own exploration 🌙GIT notebook to get you started with yfinance data https://t.co/MkdqLvqfC6 https://t.co/LDHZibQS9H
Housing Market Tightens, Home Receives 94 Offers
The housing market has tightened a little lately. I’m not saying it’s 2021 again. I’m just saying supply and demand have squeezed together a little. More thoughts on my weekly blog along with a discussion about that one home that...
STUB Trades at Deep Discount Despite Strong Margins
Took a $STUB starter this morning. At ~$9/sh, EV of ~$3.4B represents ~8x 2026 EBITDA guide MP & ~22x RR FCF. Regulatory resale (~10% GMS) risks appear discounted. This is deeply discounted to any reasonable comp set for a scaled marketplace with...
War in Iran and Inflation Push Mortgage Rates Near 6%
Today’s podcast discusses a theory of mine on why #mortgagerates are near 6%, with hotter inflation data and the war with Iran driving up oil prices. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #economics #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
IWM Rejects 50‑Day MA, Rolling Top Threatens
$IWM Daily. Rejection at 50-day m.a. for small caps, as possibility of rolling top since January more ominous. Watch back below $255 for confirmation. https://t.co/rbUjHSmmL3
Russia Shifts Gas to China, Threatens Europe Supply
September 2, 2025: Russia and China sign major new gas pipeline deal March 4, 2026: Putin says Russia may halt gas supplies to Europe https://t.co/kEjAnIqyrP
Start Investing: Prioritize 401k Match, HSA, Then Roth IRA
"I'm a new investor. How do I start?" 1. Sign up for a 401k/403b. Select Vanguard/Fidelity funds with low expense ratio. Contribute at least up to the match. 2. Open and max out HSA, if eligible 3. Roth IRA/max out the 401k/403b This is the...
Ignore Media Spin: WMT Weakness Reveals Consumer Reality
Beware of False Narratives When we were shorting $WMT $10 higher than today's price (which is -$4.98 in trading), the "talking heads" made up narratives that the $WMT strength confirmed the notion that the consumer is swell. Stay independent and turn the...
Software Stocks Surge on Insider Buys and Double Earnings Play
CRM big push in Software today as well, call fly earnings play now more than a double, seeing a lot of these names rally with insider buys, buybacks into the Software is Dead move
SPY Breakout Above 690 Targets All‑time High
$SPY - a breakout above 689.00-690.00 sets the stage for a move to retest all time highs.
Fed Rate‑cut Odds Dip as ECB Hike Odds Surge
Everyone is talking about ECB rate hike odds by Dec spiking to 60% from 20% BUT Fed Fund futures show less chance of 25bp cut in June than a week ago (before the Iran strikes) When do you think the Federal Reserve...
Record Low Sales Set Stage for Modest Rebound
Home Sales & Home Prices Keep Dropping In BC & Ontario: The Sales May Improve Even If Prices Keep Falling The February Home Sales Numbers continue to look awful just like January But here's the thing about horribly low numbers: eventually the...
China's Lithium Lead Persists, but Supply Share Shrinks
China’s lithium supply dominance is hardly being “locked in.” Over the next decade their #1 position over demand will remain but their control over supply will diminish as assets in North America and non Chinese owned assets in South America...
Diesel Costs Rise $0.40/gal, Adding $0.06 per Mile
Diesel prices keep surging +$.40/gallon since start of the conflict That is roughly $.06/mile https://t.co/U2lHk2MBhe
Bloom Energy Secures $500M IDF Contract, Expands U.S. Fuel‑
Bloom Energy $BE gets an additional $500M contract from IDF (Infrastructure Development Fund. Industrial Development Funding (IDF) is expanding its collaboration with Bloom and is now funding over $650 million of Bloom fuel-cell Energy Servers across three portfolios in...
Watch Rare Weekly RSI(5) Oversold Signals for Big Assets
markets don't provide certainties... some of you know i'm a fan of using RSI(5) (on multiple time frames) as a way of gauging where price is at... it MUST be used and interpreted in the text of relevant trend... to...
Ethanol Profit Forecasts 2025 Disrupted by CKF Technology
1. My latest FDD is out today and it looks at ethanol production profits for 2025. This is usually a pretty straightforward exercise using a model I have long used. Not so in 2025 due to something...
Bond Volatility Bet Hurts Markets, Boosts TW MK
Treasury (TLT) buyer 5000 December $89 straddles expecting bond volatility, tends to be bad for markets, good for TW MKTX
Four Indicators Hint Upside Surprise on US Jobs
EVERYONE'S BEARISH ON NFP - THEY MIGHT BE WRONG ⚠️4 leading indicators say the US jobs number could surprise to upside Meanwhile $NQ $ES are bleeding and $CL is surging. Here's my breakdown of it all👇 https://t.co/tPjJsIC76Y
Live NYSE Market Breakdown with Schwab Network
Jumping on the NYSE set of the @SchwabNetwork to break down this market with @NPetallides in a moment.
ByteDance, Tencent Buying Chinese DRAM May Squeeze Western Memory Rivals
negative call going aroundo on $MU- Bytedance and Tencent are in talks to Buy more DRAM and NAND flash form two China firms. ChangXin and Yangtze Memory Technologie could pressure WDC MU SNDK https://t.co/ZXWt84acxg
BlackRock Wipes Private Credit Loans to Zero in Three Months
Well well well... BlackRock marked a private credit loan at 100 cents on the dollar in Q3. By Q4, it was a big fat ZERO. Not 80. Not 50. ZERO. In 3 months. This is the second time $TCPC has done this recently....
Buy Call Spread, Sell Free Put on AVGO
$AVGO "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 6 Expiry 322.50/330 Call Spread ($3.90) and sell the March 6 Expiry 297.50 Put for free." sell to close call spread on any weakess in the stock price, puts look to expire
Sell March 6 64/73 Strangle for Quick Credit
$KR "Trade Idea 4: Sell the March 6 Expiry 64/73 Strangle for a 75 cent credit." looks to expiore, let IV fall then can buy to close or watch
Ag Products Face Re‑pricing; Live Cattle Lead the Shift
I love this chart Shawn I also think ag products will enter a period of re-pricing. Live Moo Cows have already done so
Exploring SpaceX IPO, Covid Legacy, iPod's Music Revolution
✍️ Longform links: a look at a potential SpaceX IPO, the long-term health impacts of Covid, and how the iPod changed our relationship with music. https://t.co/6bSrheJuzD image: https://t.co/vMSvzVUcJK https://t.co/8bTwTklNAR
Restricting Bank Foreclosure Threatens New‑Build Lending
I understand the principle of precluding large firms from buying existing homes. They do “compete” with young families and raise prices. But the ROAD to Housing needs to be **clearly** re-written. Preventing "investors" from owning homes they built not only affects...
AI Boosts Productivity, Surpassing Pre‑Pandemic Forecasts
Are we finally seeing AI in the productivity data? A big upward revision to earlier data and strong Q4 bring us 2.2% above CBO's pre-pandemic forecast. Annual rates: 1 year: 2.8% 2 years: 2.5% 6 years: 2.2%
Align Daily and Weekly Trends for Successful Trades
Market speculation All markets zig and zag -- most of the time randomly This zigging and zagging takes place on multiple time frames A market might be zigging and zagging downward on one time frame while zigging and zagging upwards on another time...
Current Cycle Productivity Hits Long‑Term 2.2% Benchmark
"The 2.2-percent annualized rate of nonfarm business productivity growth in the current business cycle thus far is higher than the 1.5-percent rate of the previous business cycle, from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019, and...
Jakarta Stock Exchange Posts 5% Canary Signal
One market that has shown a recent 5% canary signal with confirmation is Indonesia's Jakarta Stock Exchange. https://t.co/dls4RSmwO4
US Stocks Maintain Record 15-Year Outperformance Stretch
Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...
Dollar Surge Reflects Short‑term Risk Aversion, Not Lasting Strength
The Dollar (blue) has risen sharply above rate differentials (black). That's the best indication this week's Dollar spike is about short-term risk aversion and repatriation flows. Totally short-term and doesn't invalidate Dollar weakness later this year... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75 https://t.co/EXSOCllmRB
Market Stuck in Range: Trade Levels, Avoid Big Bets
📺 THE MARKET’S BIGGEST TRAP RIGHT NOW It has been one of the most difficult and volatile trading weeks in a long time. Despite geopolitical headlines and sharp overnight moves, every attempted breakdown quickly failed. Key levels like $SPY $675–$682 and $QQQ...
Billions in Options Set to Expire at Key Strikes
Options for ~2.2 bln euros at $1.16 expire at 10 am ET Options for ~535 mln at $1.3350 expire then Options for ~$355 mln at CAD1.3650 also expire DTCC listed
Gold Prices Still Unmoved Despite Gulf Turmoil
Regardless of how bad things are in the Gulf, the gold price does not appear to reflect it... yet.
Sergey Brin Joins Tech Elite with $51M Miami Purchase
Another boldface #tech name decamps to #SoFla. #Google cofounder #SergeyBrin pays $51M for waterfront home of #LVMH boss #MichaelBurke on #AlisonIsland, joining the #Zuckerbergs+fellow Google creator #LarryPage. #realestate #mortgage #Miami #CoconutGrove https://t.co/3BfAXAnLCz
Iran Conflict Won’t Boost Dollar as Rate Gap Narrows
Markets are pricing war with Iran as a hawkish shock for the Fed (lhs). But the US rate differential versus its G10 peers is moving against the Dollar (rhs), because central banks outside the US will also be less dovish....
Rising Oil Prices Force Fed to Pause, Trim 2026 Cuts
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
Dollar Surge Is Temporary Asset Repatriation, Not Reserve Decline
This week's rise in USD confounded those who said the US is losing reserve currency status. That's NOT what it's about. Americans repatriate assets when bad shocks hit, like in 2008, 2020 or 2025. A very short-term thing. The Dollar...
China Hikes Military Budget, Seeks Tech Self‑reliance
In a Riskier Era, China Bets on Technology to Resist U.S. Pressure China announced a 7 percent increase in military spending and a five-year plan to try to reduce its military and industry’s reliance on Western technology. https://t.co/c3cRysLtmX via @NYTimes
Second‑Generation Restaurant Spaces Offer Ready‑Made Opportunity
Touring a second-generation restaurant in Dupont Circle today and I’ve been getting a lot of calls about it. 3,700 square feet across two floors on Connecticut Ave with the Dupont Metro two minutes away. Second-generation restaurants create real opportunity because the infrastructure...
US Economy Gains Momentum Across Services, Manufacturing, Auto, Small‑Biz Hiring
Some recent data: * ISM services best since Aug '22 * ISM manufacturing >50 two months in row after years < 50 * Auto sales were better than expected * ADP best in 7 months and most of the jobs came from small...
Technical Analysis Fades; Focus on Quality, Price Discipline
i've followed Druck's comments, insights and portfolio changes from the sidelines for years... he certainly knows how to use charts, how to manage risk and spot emerging trends... when my relative strength process has been spotting area X or area...
Free Cash Flow Fuels Massive Stock Rebounds Like Meta
You may not remember when $META was at $87 It got the full blown $AMD treatment Zuck had ‘wrecked’ the company because of his Metaverse plans But what people failed to consider was their enormous FCF Price recovered and ran to $736 +840% This is where...
Midterm Elections Will Test Q1 Energy Price Surge
Peak Energy Price Inklings in 1Q? Midterms in 4Q a Top Test - The leader of the world's largest energy producer -- and net crude oil and natural gas exporter -- wants lower prices, and elections are in November. The...
Natural Gas Slides Toward $2 Trough After $5 Resistance
$2 Natural Gas Support vs. $5 Resistance - The inability of the front US natural gas future to stay above $5 per million British thermal units may be emphasized by the price just below $3 on March 4 despite a...
True Quality Endures Beyond Changing Conditions
Quality is an idea, a piece of artwork, a business, a relationship, or even a book that keeps working (providing value) even after conditions change over time. Quality is an interesting topic because it’s one of the most overused terms...