Trump’s 5.4% GDP Claim Was Just a Model
Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously. Thank you for your attention etc
VWAP Highlights Week-Long Choppiness Across Major Indices
The 🔵WTD ⚓️VWAP tells the story of the choppy week in $ES_F $SPY $NQ_F $QQQ https://t.co/ihrFlZV1FZ
Q4 GDP Misses, Core Inflation Surges Above Forecast
Q4 GDP prints at 1.4% vs expected 3% - Previously 4.4% December Core PCE at 3.0% vs Expected 2.9% - Previously 2.8% y/y Core PCE 0.4% m/m vs Expected 0.3% - Previously 0.2%
Nintendo's Q4: Hardware Leads, Moat Questioned
In your inboxes this morning Nintendo: Are We Doing This Again? $NTDOY - No Wall Street handholding (holiday quarter results) - Hardware sales, then software sales, then profits - What about memory chips? - Is there still an emerging moat? - My investment decision https://t.co/6BIv63lDlJ
ETF Fees Halt Decline as Higher‑cost Products Gain Traction
The race to zero has hit a wall as the asset weighted average ETF fee has finally stopped its descent and even reversed a bit (this chart is one of the scariest, albeit slow moving ones for Wall St, equiv...
Strong US Payrolls Can Depress Dollar, Boost Euro
On Aug. 3, 2012, Goldman put out a trade recommendation to go long Euro. The next day was US payrolls, which were stronger than expected. That caused Euro to jump and USD to fall. An example that strong US data...
Friday's Top Reads: Power Shifts Across Media, Finance, Politics
10 Friday AM Reads: -Netflix Calls Paramount's Bluff -401k Takeover: Private Equity Muscles In -Billionaires' Low Taxes' Problem for the Economy -Quiet Architect of Trump's Global Trade War -The End of the Office -The US Coup: One Year On -U2 Propaganda Days of Ash https://t.co/cSpLOtlpzu
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Dollar Holds Firm Amid Looming Tariff Decision and US Data
Tariff Decision Day?: The US dollar is trading mostly firmer but quietly in what could be a volatile North American session. It is not just about the US data, of which there is plenty—including the PCE deflator and the first...
SPX Holds Channel—Stay Selective, Await Clean Setups
$SPX is still holding its channel, it’s an easy tape to overtrade, so stay selective and wait for clean setups. Key levels: support 6780–6790, yesterday’s low 6833, and pivot resistance 6909, with PCE and GDP on deck at 8:30. https://t.co/lvzBNkDdkK
India’s AI Surge: Codex Users Grow 4x Weekly
Great meeting with PM @narendramodi today to talk about the incredible energy around AI in India. India is our fastest growing market for codex globally, up 4x in weekly users in the past 2 weeks alone. 🇮🇳! https://t.co/MRbw0UkotJ
Strong US Data Must Decouple to Trigger Dollar Decline
The US is outgrowing everyone else and that'll stay that way into this year's midterms. So, for the Dollar to fall, you need a correlation break whereby strong US data cause USD to fall. This is how the Dollar traded...
Crude Hits 7‑month High Amid US‑Iran Strike Risk
Crude rallies to 7-month highs as market prices in the risk of US strikes on Iran. I spoke to @NDTVProfitIndia earlier today. https://t.co/NDv6pbwsZp
Hedge Funds Slash US Equity Leverage, Yet Remain Highly Exposed
From GS Prime trading desk on Flows, via Bbrg: “Against a more challenging performance backdrop and tougher technicals, hedge funds have turned more defensive and net sold US equities MTD at the fastest pace since March 25,” the team led by...
Protecting Domestic EVs Requires Tariffs or Local Content Rules
Very good Rhodium piece on the cost advantage of Chinese EVs: “In practice, countries seeking to protect domestic industries have two broad options. One is to impose very high tariffs that account not only for subsidies but also for structural...
AI Becomes Mandatory Backbone of Enterprise Customer Service
Customer service is where artificial intelligence has officially moved past the hype. @NICEComms recently reported their full-year 2025 financial results, and the numbers point to a clear structural shift in enterprise adoption. Their AI annual recurring revenue grew 66% year over...
Gold Poised for Reversion as Oil Bears Down
Is Gold the Next Big Commodity Trade? Historic Reversion Risks - Geopolitical tensions could add fuel to crude oil's bear market as it approaches good resistance while heightening peak signals in gold's bull market. The metal has reached historic extremes...
USD Firming Ahead of Data, SCOTUS Tariff Ruling
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of US data and possible SCOTUS decision on POTUS use of emergency powers to levy broad tariffs. Mkt tensions over possible US-Iran conflict seems to have eased for the moment but have not...
Supply Scare Could Deepen Brent’s Bear Market
A Supply Scare Can Add Fuel to Brent Downtrend - What will end crude's downtrend may be a top commodity question of 2026. A supply scare that spikes prices might fuel more of the same -- US-led Western Hemisphere production...
Gold's Parabolic Surge May Be Overheated, Reversion Likely
The Rock May Be Too Hot - Gold vs. Commodities - Inflation is notably absent from gold's parabolic rally, which may suggest a too-hot rock if history is a guide. From a base of 100 in 1964, gold in terms...
Live Premarket Picks: NVDA, TSLA, IBIT, SPY
⏰Scott Redler’s #630club - LIVE Premarket Stock Update $NVDA $TSLA $IBIT $SPY 📷 Free VIP List Newsletter: https://t.co/EW4O2nbz8N https://t.co/LuYuPCBRLU
US EV Charging Ports Jump 10%, Fast Chargers Rise 25%
U.S. ELECTRIC VEHICLE charging ports increased by more than 24,000 (10%) in 2025. More than half of the new ports were direct current fast-charging ports, which increased by more than 13,000 (25%): https://t.co/zEkOinhmj8
Shorting SPY at $686.72 in Premarket Trade
Premarket Trading (4:10 AM) @TheStreetPro * Win, lose or draw - I timestamp * I don't bullshit (by sweeping losers under the rug and regaling in my winners) .... I am back shorting the indices: * (SPY) $686.72 By Doug Kass Feb 20, 2026...
VNET CEO Purchases 40k Shares at 69p
Joint Chairman and CEO at #VNET bought 40,000 shares at 69p each. I don't hold.
Apple’s Support Break Rippled Into SPY Yesterday
Did you know $AAPL broke @Hedgeye TREND Signal Support in the past week? Do you know what its impact was in $SPY yesterday? @t1alpha We call this being Macro Aware https://t.co/vu1biIkQcQ
AZN's Calquence + Venetoclax Approved for CLL Treatment
#AZN Calquence combined with Venetoclax approved in US for treating Adults with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia in a particular form.
UK Retail Sales Record Fastest Growth in 20 Months
UK retail sales begin the year with the fastest growth in 20 months https://t.co/GPGNaZk4Oa via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/kAm5UcAWvQ
European Small‑Cap Funds Eye Amadeus Fire Amid Labor Uncertainty
Any European small/mid cap FMs catching the falling knife in Amadeus Fire? If Germany's labour market turns, it should have some legs, though perhaps its model is doomed?
125 International Companies Exit Pakistan Amid Corruption Claims
#PakWatch🇵🇰: 125 international companies are ceasing operations in Pakistan. PAK = CORRUPT = 3RD WORLD https://t.co/tmHXxbtj8I
Korean Stocks Nearing March with Almost No Down Days
It's almost March and Korean stocks have barely had any down days all year, lol. Crazy https://t.co/5E1xp4S5XL
Rising VIX with Nifty Fuels Call Momentum, Not Trap
VIX at 14.4, up 7%. Not panic… but volatility is waking up. Now it’s simple. >> If Nifty pushes into the liquidity zone and sustains, while VIX stays firm or rises… that’s real fuel. Calls can expand properly. >> But if price goes...
Takaichi Warns of Japan’s Domestic Investment Shortfall
*TAKAICHI:THERE IS A DEARTH OF DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN JAPAN Takaichi dropping truth bombs. Starts of with the biggest
US‑trained Chinese Firms Dominate Memory Supercycle
Chinese memory firms GigaDevice Semiconductor and Montage Technology have emerged as new heavyweights in the domestic semiconductor industry, as these companies founded by US-returned Chinese engineers capitalise on the global memory supercycle. https://t.co/Vn4nQD1BYc
15% Margin Add‑On Hits 18 High‑Concentration F&O Stocks
Exchange levies 15% add-on exposure margin on 18 high concentration F&O names from Feb 25 (announced yesterday) Stocks that might see some pressure due to increased margins - ABCAP, ARBP, BANDHAN, CCRI, CROMPTON, GNP, IDEA, JSW, LICHF, NBCC, NMDC, PATANJALI, RBL...
Busan Deal: US Sacrific
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
Spend $33B on Flexibility, Not Idle Gas Plant
For $33B he could have solved the entire PJM capacity auction challenge with demand flexibility through 2029, but sure overpay for a gas plant that won’t run more than 20% of the year…
December PCE Inflation Hits Multi‑Year Highs
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
IMF Estimates Chinese Yuan Undervalued by Roughly 19%
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq
Integr
You know how high earners feel like they’re tipping Uncle Sam while their own financial goals keep slipping? I integrate tax strategy and financial planning so they stop the bleeding and fund what actually matters.
College Still Boosts Lifetime Earnings, Despite 2026 Debate
Going to college is one of the best things you can do to increase your expected lifetime earnings This is oddly a controversial statement in 2026
Exclude Pharma and Gold to Reveal True US Trade Trend
I think the best way to look at the underlying trend in the US trade data is strip out pharmaceuticals and gold (both were heavily influenced by the threat of tariffs, even though none were imposed on either category) 1/ https://t.co/7l20zR7CTr
Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq
Strategic Partnership Shouldn't Just Be German Production in China
Hope the "strategic partnership" is more than allowing German companies to produce in China for the German (and European) market ...
Software’s Value Mispriced; Embedded Platforms Gain From AI
Software Is Not Dead. It’s Being Mispriced. AI disruption fears, multiple compression, and why embedded platforms may be the real beneficiaries of automation. Read here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/p/software-is-not-dead-its-being-mispriced
SPX Straddle Costs Surge to Fed-Day Levels
$SPX 33pts for a straddle til 9:30am is a lot, I mean, this was a Fed day price 24hrs ahead not long ago https://t.co/ZvarHxYNIH
BDC's Wind‑down Follows Its Disclosed Liquidity Plan
To be clear, the fund being referenced is *not* an interval fund, it is a BDC. This may seem like splitting hairs because they are both lumped together as evergreen/semi-liquid fund structures, but there are important distinctions - much in the...
US Stock Market Hits Record Concentration: Top 10 Own 40%
🚨US market concentration BUBBLE in one chart: The top 10 US stocks make up a record 40% of the S&P 500 market value. At the same time, the weight of the largest stock in the S&P 500 relative to the 75th percentile...
SPX Flat While DE Soars, Oil Breaks Out, COIN Spikes
$SPX is still stuck between 6800 and 7000. But under the surface, $DE exploded higher on earnings, $CVX and $COP broke out with crude oil, and $COIN is showing amplified volatility vs #Bitcoin. Here’s what I’m watching next: https://t.co/bQnwyKMJeh https://t.co/v7DLLL1mYC
South Korea, Turkey, Thailand Lead YTD Market Gains
Best performing stock markets in the world (local currency) year-to-date. 1. S Korea +34.7% 2. Turkey +24.1% 3. Thailand +18.6% In Asia only Indonesia, India negative. Malaysia is up only 4.3%.
Buy Newmont on Pullbacks as Gold Rises
Macro: gold up on rate‑cut hopes & geopolitics. Key: Newmont beat as realized $4,216/oz offset 24% output drop. Risk: output erosion, volatility. Trade: buy Newmont on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov