Guangdong Power Prices Near Double Amid LNG Shortage
Power prices in China's industrial hub have almost doubled due in part due to a natural gas supply crunch 🇨🇳⚡ Spot rates in Guangdong climbed to ~680 yuan/MWh — a three-year high. The region is getting 40% less LNG due to the Middle East conflict https://t.co/35yD3WE5zk
US Rig Count Down 34% Signals Looming Oil Shortage
Here is a reminder that well before the war broke out: The number of operating rigs had already fallen by roughly 34% over the prior three years in the most critical US energy basin. That has serious implications for future oil supply,...
Qatar's $600B Surplus Faces First Deficit in Decade
Qatar's accumulated current account surplus (which excludes capital gains on the QIA's investments) over the last 40ys is USD 600b give or take Qatar can afford a few months of deficits . But it still hurts https://t.co/zcG5etAkVY
High‑volatility, Uncorrelated Assets Boost Capital Efficiency
Most allocators miss this, because it’s counterintuitive, but a high volatility uncorrelated asset is more useful than a low vol one because it is more capital efficient (assuming expected returns are positive). So yes, this return stream could be useful in...
Gulf Oil Output Set to Rebound Within Months
Gulf Oil Output Likely To Rebound Within Months After Hormuz Reopening, Goldman Says – RTRS
Reason
ok. why is this guy wrong? honest question. the split between reasonable people being doomers and SPX ATH is odd.
UAE Central Bank’s Cash‑Equivalents Share of Reserves Fell
Alex hasn't quite internalized how bad my eyes are and how much I need BIG FONTS ... but this is super interesting -- the UAE has a ton of cash equivalents on its central bank balance sheet (the various bars). ...
Philadelphia Semi Index Rises 17 Days Straight
Philly Semi Index has yet to closer this entire month. 17 straight days up https://t.co/FbcWeu4Z2b
Intel Hits Record High, Q1 Revenue Beats Forecasts
Intel is on pace for its first record high since 2000 after shares surged 20% in after-hours trading. Q1 revenue came in at $13.6B — more than $1B above some estimates
Ceasefire Holds, Yet Energy Flows Remain Stalled
Good morning Asia, It's Day 56 and the ceasefire is on, but oil and gas (as well as aluminum, helium, sulfur etc) are still not flowing. Crude oil is up now to 105/barrel and markets end the week with trepidation. Asia...
KLCI Hits March High, Tech & Commodities Lead Gains
KLCI highest close since 18 March +2.5% YTD. Outshone other markets yesterday; main themes were tech/DC, commodity. Large caps/KLCI Top 5 movers yesterday: •P Chem +6.3% •MRDIY +4.3% •P Metal +2.7% •YTLP +2.3% •YTL 2.0% Mid-caps FBM70 continues to outperform +7.2% YTD. Still positive on...
Tooze and IMF Overlook Exchange Rates in Imbalance Analysis
I cannot criticise Tooze for leaving out the exchange rate as a central variable when the IMF (... the IMF ... lest we forget, whose mandate is around exchange rates and the balance of payments) also left the exchange rate...
Options Surge Signals Intel’s 19% Earnings Jump
Heavy options activity + elevated call premiums preceded Intel's +19% post-earnings surge, as discussed earlier today with CNBC's Oliver Renick: https://t.co/HlZyHlUzwM
Sustained High ROIC Defies Mean Reversion, Needs Complex Valuation
Michael Mauboussin on fade rates "ROICs regress toward the mean as the result of competition, changing market conditions, and luck. But there is a substantial body of research that shows some companies produce high ROICs for sustained periods, often measured in decades. This...
Simplify to $100k: One Account, No Credit
Money advice I wish someone gave me at 22: Set a goal to stack $100k cash Until you have $100k cash, you are broke. The mainstream media will not tell you this because they want to keep you that way. Luckily, you have a...
Trump’s Trade Policies Spark Heightened Commodity Demand
My take on @PalisadesRadio on why commodities are HOT: "Trump's tariffs and sanctions have disrupted the global movement of goods. There is risk and uncertainty as to what Trump will do next, and that increases a precautionary demand for commodities of...
2026 Oil Bull Market: A Long Shot From the Start
It’s really hard to overstate just how much of a long shot an oil bull market in 2026 was heading into the year. And, yet
DR Horton’s Shift to 65% FHA/VA Increases Default Risk
DR Horton has adjusted its business model in an interesting way. Back in 2021/22, they were doing 40% of their business to FHA and VA borrowers. Now it's 65% of their business. FHA and VA loans typically have 0-5% downpayments and higher credit...
SkyWest Q1 Shows Revenue Growth, Fleet Reactivation, Pilot Pipeline
SkyWest’s Q1 2026 call was solid—revenue up, more plane reactivations, and pilot pipeline growing. Steady execution and strong partnerships keeping things on track. ✈️ SkyWest
Gasoline Breakout Proves Skeptics Right, Experts Wrong
Watching the 'strait is open told you so the experts were wrong again' people last Friday post the 'breakout' in Gasoline 6 days later https://t.co/GB8PhrUKTX
Regulator Confused About Polymarket’s International Scope
Remarkable that the country's top derivatives regulator either doesn't know (or is deliberately obfuscating) the difference between the two Polymarkets....
Crash Period Listings Triple Normal Seasonal Peaks
Just a friendly reminder that the new listings data was consistently around 250K-400K per week during the housing bubble crash years. Normally, during seasonal peak weeks, it's 80K-100K. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Warsh Pushes Balance Sheet Shrinkage via QE Resolution Fund
As I wrote with Matt Sekerke in @WSJ, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is CORRECT. He wants to SHRINK the Fed’s balance sheet. So do we. The only way to do it cleanly and rapidly is through the establishment of a...
BC Gas Prices Free of Carbon Tax, Impact Minimal
There is no carbon tax imposed at the pump in BC right now. The impact of the industrial carbon tax on fuel prices is tiny compared to the impact of the removal of consumer prices, so the total tax impact...
Intel's Turnaround Has Just Begun
$INTC is one of the great turnaround stories of our time. And it’s still VERY EARLY.
Intel’s Q1 Dip Overblown; Real Turnaround Underway
Intel’s Q1 sell-off was way overblown. They posted $600M in FCF, TSMC just partnered on 18A, and the foundry is ramping. Q2 might be messy, but the turnaround is real. You don’t sell that for pennies. Semiconductors
SPY's Range Signals Potential Drop to $695
SPY Indecision at the Top: The price has moved between 702.5 and 711 this week, building a small volume shelf. Any loss of today’s low could send the price to $695 (volume shelf below), validating the short-term bearish RSI divergence...
Can't Pay Taxes? Explore Free IRS Payment Options
Filed your taxes but can’t pay? You’ve got options. ➡️IRS Direct Pay (free) ➡️Payment plans ➡️Offer in Compromise (sometimes) Not sure what fits? Try the IRS Tax Debt Help tool—it walks you through your options. No login. No personal info required. More: https://t.co/4C7lp1Enk5
Turn One Home Into Multiple Income‑Generating ADUs
Co-living: looks great on paper, tough to manage. But what if you could add ADUs to a single-family home? More units, more doors. Generational living or rental income – that’s the investor opportunity. #RealEstateInvesting #ADU #PropertyManagement #InvestmentOpportunity #SingleFamilyHome RealEstateTips GenerationalLiving...
Intel Hints at New Customers, Stock Jumps 19%
The recurring message from the $INTC management team on the call: more new customers are coming. They just won't be announcing them today. Stock has risen an additional 4% on the call. Now up 19%.
Software Pullback Offers Near-Term Buying Opportunity
Many have grown frustrated with the lack of immediate mean reversion out of Software, but gains often take time following such dramatic weakness over the last six months. $IGV base-building generally is constructive & Intermediate-term momentum is improving. Structurally, pulling...
Consensus Succeeds if Fundamentals Stay Steady; Contrarian Needs 5% Shift
Consensus stock bets can work as long as the business trajectory doesn't deteriorate. Contrarian stock bets can work with only a 5% shift by others to your point of view.
D.R. Horton Cuts Unsold Inventory 35% YoY
D.R. Horton is quickly shrinking its pileup of unsold completed inventory "Unsold homes are down 25% from December and 35% from a year ago" - Paul Romanowski, CEO of @DRHorton said during their April 21, 2026 earnings call Chart via @ResidentialClub
Russell 3k Breadth Hits New High After
While a number of different major sectors have not yet joined Technology's push back to new all-time highs relative to Equal-weighted $RSP, it is encouraging to see the Russell 3k Advance/Decline back at new high territory following the recent failed...
Intel's Surge Lifts Market, Early Predictors Celebrate
$INTC is now pushing the entire market higher. Glad to have been among the few that saw this coming. 👀
Comcast's “Legendary” February Fell Short Profitably
Good analysis by @Drewbydoobydoo on how legendary February was not so legendary from the profit standpoint for Comcast.
Copper Demand Soars, Supply Lags—Prices Must Spike
@MBazilian Director of the @payneinstitute for Public Policy at the @coschoolofmines is a leading authority on supply and critical metals and coauthor of this article. Morgan is 100% right: copper demand from AI, EVs, data centers and global electrification is...
Intel's Forward PE Skyrockets Compared to Nvidia, AMD
$NVDA at ~20x forward PE $AMD at ~40x forward PE $INTC at ~100x forward PE Makes perfect sense. 😅
Transports Didn’t Surge After CAR Finally Cracked
Me showing the junior technician how transports were never really 'ripping higher' after after $CAR finally cracked. https://t.co/2U6YDgMbvZ
Graham Screens Simply Systematize Buying From Headline‑driven Sellers
Graham screens aren't magic. They're just a systematic way of buying from someone who read one bad headline and sold.
Intel's $280B Surge Masks 100x Valuation Risks
INTC up $280 billion in market cap from low. Q1 Revenue beat by $1b, Guidance raised for next Q ~1-1.5b. Still trading at 100x earnings the most expensive semiconductor company that still has a lot of...
Know When Backdoor Roth Is Worth the Tax Risk
When Is The Backdoor Roth Even Worth Doing? While backdoor Roth conversions can be a valuable strategy, it comes with significant rules and nuances that, if not fully understood, have the potential to cause onerous tax complications for clients in...
Intel's AI Surge Drives 15% Stock Jump, Beats Forecast
$INTC stock is up 15% on earnings. If there is ever a question regrading how early we are in AI, look at what it the rising AI tide is doing to Intel, which was arguably on the ropes. Revenue in: * Dec-25...
2018 Options Overhauled with Major Improvements
Major improvements to how the 2018 options are handled Wow, all the same time, and don't you tell the bears 🤣 Read below, only great news. Great job, @robyndenholm and @KathleeWT https://t.co/xXOpTtrnkh
Tech Stocks Spotlight: Big Tech Earnings Week Preview
Look forward to discussing tech stocks and a major week ahead for Big Tech earnings on @CNBCMorningCall with @TheDomino at 5 am @CNBC @CNBCtech ☕️☕️🏆🐂📺🔥🍿📺
Double Blockade in Persian Gulf Spikes Global Energy Prices
The situation in the Persian Gulf has worsened. Despite the ceasefire, a double blockade has broken out. It's one big cluster, and the global energy markets are feeling the heat. #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/iV7sYWClso
Enough Isn't a Number—Money Can't Define Satisfaction
💥 Enough is not a number. Clients often ask how they’ll know when they have enough. There’s a version of that answer that lives in a financial plan. You run the numbers, you look at the projections, and someone tells you,...
Dallas Fed Survey Shows Low Confidence in Quick SoH
. @DallasFed energy survey update is out and respondents aren't betting the ranch on a quick resolution of the SoH situation. Source: https://t.co/GgBMaWPY6g https://t.co/cgZXdCutmv
Debunked Dividend Growers Study Still Circulates After Ten Years
Hey @hartfordfunds, you should really consider not running these articles on "Dividend Growers"...we debunked this faulty study almost a decade ago. It gets repeated, and repeated, and repeated everywhere... https://t.co/AdFNkynxGt
Intel's Server CPU TAM Set to Quadruple by 2030
Definitely glad I never gave up on $INTC. Still execution milestones to watch, but as we anticipate the server CPU TAM to from ~$25b this year to ~$95b in our base case in 2030 it's greenfield dollar expansion. ...