NY Real Estate Rebounds as Talent Flows From Florida
The “@ZohranKMamdani effect”? Real estate prices back to pre-pandemic highs, office vacancies falling, and young talent still moving from Florida to New York.
Trump Speech Triggers Brent Crude Jump, Prediction Proven
After Trump’s speech on Wednesday night, the price of brent crude futures jumped from below $100 to around $108. On Wednesday, that’s exactly what I told @MarioNawfal what oil would do. https://t.co/CbkZMrjXlx
SoFi's Fintech Façade Hides Risky Unsecured Loan Engine
$SOFI's "fintech" mask hides a massive unsecured lending operation - Bank in disguise: lending ~90% of profits, NII >60% - Growth driven by risky unsecured loans in a saturated market - Aggressive accounting inflates earnings - Re-rate to bank multiples => 60%+ downside https://t.co/ZZ8DRGoMRM
Energy, Minerals, Nuclear, AI Lead; Services Lag
Sector Rotation Alert: What’s Actually Working (and What’s Not) Right Now I track 20 major sectors on TradingView every single day. Here’s the clean scorecard for the past month: Overperforming Energy Minerals Nuclear Power AI Optical/Photonics Underperforming Consumer Services Health Technology Transportation Consumer Durables Health Services
Copper Cheap vs Gold; Need Eight New Escondidas by 2030
Copper is up over the last decade but trading at an almost four-decade relative low against hard money gold. Chile's Escondida mine in the Atacama desert is the world's biggest copper mine. The world needs eight new Escondidas by 2030. https://t.co/ogTy5RdE0y
Keep Your Roth Contributions Actively Invested
PLEASE Don't forget to invest the money you put in your Roth - Day 3 of Financial Literacy Month
Relief Rally Fades: Volatility Favors Small, Active Strategies
Markets staged a relief rally this week, but let's not get too comfortable. Two-way volatility favors smaller size and active management. We discuss where we see opportunity in this week's video. $SPY $QQQ $USO $SMH $XLB https://t.co/0IDPYxFYrM
Chinese Government Bonds Stand Out as War Safe Haven
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven. More on this in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/jQYKfLr6kx
Egypt's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Excessive Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 13.4%/yr. That’s above its inflation target of 3-7%/yr. Egypt’s money supply just came in at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Mortgage Defaults Return to Pre‑pandemic Levels, Boosting Inventory
Mortgage defaults in the U.S. are now back to pre-pandemic levels. In Q4 2025, 4.3% of mortgage holders were in default, a level slightly higher than 2019 figures. This return to normalcy in mortgage defaults is actually good news, as it means...
WTI Oil Beats Gold Over Past Year
Wild. WTI oil now outperforming gold over the last twelve months. $oil : $gold ratio https://t.co/45PLa8stic
Earned +15R on Holiday Week, High Win‑Rate
WEEKLY RECAP: +15R on a short holiday week, but really happy with the week all in all. Kept win-rate high this week, but didn't really have any breakaway plays outside of $MASK & $RENX. How'd your week go?
Three Unicorn
A trio of monster unicorns... the S&P 500 top 10 could look a whole lot different by this time next year JPMAM https://t.co/vgHNRwbucP
Questioning Futures Curve: What Is True December WTI Expectation?
Assuming, as most of you seem to have massive confidence, that the futures curve is not a reflection of true market expectations of future spot. Current Dec Futures are 72.5 ish. What do you think the market expectations for...
Crude Spot Markets Reach Unprecedented Tightness, Spreads Near Whole Dollars
It's not a great sign when you start simply rounding crude timespreads to the nearest full dollar per barrel Brent prompt spread at $10/bbl, WTI at $14, Dubai at $17 (we normally talk about term structure in cents...) Crude oil spot markets have...
War's End Determines Brent Spot vs Futures Direction
This is the spot Brent oil price (white), the Brent March futures that just expired this week (orange), the current Brent June futures (yellow) and WTI (green). If war ends quickly, white converges down to yellow. If war drags on,...
Cost Seg Studies Save Taxes—Only If Passive Limits Allow
You own rental property and you've never done a cost seg study. that means you're depreciating everything over 27.5 years. same recovery period as the building itself. BUT. We can always go back to grab that tax savings but here's what nobody...
Credibility Beats Hype: Buffett’s Long‑Term Value Investing
Warren Buffett proves that trust and credibility often matter more than fancy strategies. Learn why genuine, long-term value investing beats hype and how staying disciplined can help you build wealth over time.
Stop Waiting for Perfect Deal—Invest Now, Save Taxes
One of the most common mistakes I see with first-time investors: They wait for the "perfect" deal. Perfect market, perfect price, perfect interest rate, perfect timing. Meanwhile they are writing a six-figure check to the IRS every April… The cost of waiting for perfect...
Fuel Crisis Pushes Indonesia Toward Perilous Policy Trade‑offs
A terrific piece from my #CarnegieAsia teammate @sdjaffrey on how the fuel crisis is forcing politically perilous trade-offs in Indonesia. As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation,...
Target 150bp Yield Spread Over Market Cap
How private equity firms analyze deals: Most important metrics: 1. Stabilized cap rate (yield): Since we focus on value add, the entry cap doesn’t matter much, as long as we can service our debt The stabilized yield matters because it shows the intrinsic...
Iran's Oil Revenues Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Iran's free cash flow benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Who's benefited economically from the war? It's Iran. Because they're exporting more oil than they were before. The price is a lot higher & the...
Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply
What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp
US Iran Strike Sparks Red Market, Treasuries Bleed
March 2, 2025. The market opens to a sea of red following news of a U.S. attack on the Iranian regime. Treasuries bleed in anticipation of inflationary supply shocks. Trend-following strategies are in disarray. What's up with carry? by @jordonezjr https://t.co/oeugyTwcEN https://t.co/2Oq7Njel14
Small‑mid Caps Hit Cheapest 30‑year Forward Multiples
Earnings for small and mid value are inflecting up into the cheapest forward multiples over the last 30 years. https://t.co/CrYWv1Fnns
Value Investing: Expensive Stocks Can Outperform Cheap Ones
Most investors think 'Value' means buying low P/E or low Book Value stocks. Buffett disagrees. For instance, growth is usually seen as a positive. But if a business has low returns on capital, growth is actually a value destroyer. Sometimes the 'expensive'...
Value Investing Remains Strong Amid Market Turmoil
This week in value: Warren Buffett in Omaha – 03/31/26 | Audio Only (Squawk Pod) Bill Ackman says it’s one of the best times in a long time to buy quality stocks (CNBC) When Everything Feels Out Of Control, Value Investing Doesn’t (Forbes) Relevance...
Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks' P/E Drops to 23
The 10 largest S&P 500 stocks' P/E has fallen to 23.0x.. it was above 30 just a few months ago JPMAM https://t.co/MthUHSpayR
China Solar Cell Prices Drop Third Week Amid Cost Easing
China solar cell prices fall for third consecutive week as upstream costs ease #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/Oawb2A3W9W
World’s Largest LNG Export Plant Offline for a Month
The world’s biggest LNG export plant has been offline for a month 🚢 ⚠️ Let me explain why you should care about that 👇 https://t.co/Ywo3ZK9mac
Builders’ Rate Cuts Mask Deeper Housing Supply Misalignment
If it weren't the builders paying down rates, housing permits would be worse today. We will never build housing the way people want because we aren't a supply-first economy; the demand curve needs to align with it, and rental vacancies...
SPX Below 10‑Month MA Signals Potential Further Decline
$SPX - Closed below the 10 month MA. Going back to 2009 3 cases didn't have any further downside or only marginal further downside: 2011, 2015 and 2023, but in 2011 and 2015 the drawdown had already been at least...
Shift to US Treasuries as Gold Peaks
I'm not supposed to give investment advice, but compliance has never said I can't suggest overweighting US Treasuries :) Tinderbox Seeking a Spark: US Treasuries vs. Gold A basic factor may be all that's needed to spur some reversion from the...
No Numbers in Founder Updates Signal Trouble
From one of my advisors who is a long-time angel: "I’ve been writing down my portfolio each month with 'spidey sense' assessments of founders whose updates have been getting fluffy. No numbers in the update = not a good sign."
White House Adviser Cites Futures: Energy Prices Falling
“… Energy prices are going down […] you don’t have to believe me, look at the futures market…” — White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett https://t.co/RCHUpjLhW2
SPX Hits 6300, Neutral FY26 Valuation Band
$SPX Pretty interesting 6300 found buyers, my Neutral Valuation Band level for FY26 (roll to FY27 as enter 2H26) https://t.co/Z3ppbki8g5
Semiconductor Capex Surge Highlights Top Analyst Picks
Semiconductor Capex Rising. Analysts Name Top Stock Picks. https://t.co/gjaKdB4ex2 $AMAT $ASML $LRCX $AEIS $MKSI $ENTG
Trend‑following Winters Test Discipline, but Reward Patience
Futures trend-following is the most difficult trading style. "Trend following winters" cause traders to lose discipline and stop following the systems, which over longer periods are very profitable. 👇
Dallas Rents Dip, Homes Stay Affordable—Perfect Buyer Window
I toured some Dallas buildings recently. Was *shocking* how nice of an apartment you can get for $1200-1300. Combine that with the fact that you can still buy a house in the suburbs for $400k, and you can see why so...
Futures Signal Oil Prices Will Normalize by Summer
HASSETT: "You don't have to believe me, just look at the futures markets, which trade future contracts on these things--and they're way back headed towards normal by the fall and certainly into the summer" https://t.co/MJNzrqID5k
Soybean Prices Capped at $12 Amid Record Brazil Output
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside crude's spike...
Iran War Ripple Effects Threaten Corn Belt Yields
Nice article here by my Purdue mates on the impact of the Iran War on Corn Belt crop agriculture https://t.co/eapip2SLMa
Sacramento 2026 Home Sales Slightly Edge 2025
Closed home sales volume in 2026 is just ahead of 2025 in the Sacramento region so far. Not by much, but any growth feels like a win. I'll have visuals out next week to break down the trend.
Tech Dividend ETF Offers Stable Income and Growth
Income investors, meet your tech solution. $TDIV targets profitable tech giants that pay & grow dividends, offering a smoother ride than pure growth funds. Ideal for long-term income + sector growth. Dividends
Timeless Money Advice: Live Your Rich Life Now
This is a video of me from 17 years ago In this interview, I'm talking about I Will Teach You To Be Rich, the business I still run today I'm not as polished as today. But the message is the same. You...
Iran Turns to Euro, France Pays in Yuan
Iranians accepting EUR....or French paying in CNY (after selling gold to China to get CNY)?
Smart Money Optimism Sparks Potential SPY Bounce
#SPX: Smart money confidence is optimistic while dumb money is neutral. The Fear & Greed Index continues at Extreme Fear. Green circles highlight increase in smart money confidence and bullish moves that followed. The bounce could have more fuel. $SPY
Investors Flee OpenAI for More Profitable Anthropic
🚨 Investors abandon OpenAI and flock to arch rival Anthropic | OpenAI’s shocking fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic ✅ OpenAI shares are falling out of favour on secondary markets — in some cases nearly impossible to sell —...
Gold’s Weakness Signals Buying Opportunity Amid Secular Uptrend
Gold has been surprisingly weak lately and has not acted in line with what one might expect during a geopolitical shock. My sense is that this is combination of a sentiment reversal among the fast money crowd (which had jumped...
Oil Futures Curve Contradicts White House’s Iran Disruption Claim
White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s...