Mism
The mismatch also made for great fun for rel val trading the vols and cleaning for when an event fell between expiries. Also fun when your Brent greeks went away since they expired earlier, an issue you didn't sweat when you put the spread on 3 months ago
SPX Futures Eye 6680: Break Upside, Drop to 6316
$SPX futures are testing the downtrend line from below after bouncing off $6498 support. $6680 is the level. Break and hold above it changes the picture. Fail here, and 6,316 is still on the table.
Consistent Small Wins Outperform Home‑Run Options Strategies
Options income isn’t about hitting home runs. It’s about stacking singles: • sell puts • collect premium • manage risk • repeat Boring strategies tend to pay the most.
Taco Trade: 1‑DTE SP
Put on a little debit buttefly on $SPX 1 DTE - I rather call it the #taco trade. An anticipation that DJT doens't do it and the market has a nice relieve bounce tmorrow. What do you guys think?
Watch for Outlier Trades Before Market Close
Half an hour to the regular close. Keep your eyes out for outlier prediction market trades and options activity on major/liquid equity index derivatives...
Physical Brent Hits $150 Before Options Predict It
While the options market bets on Brent crude futures hitting a record $150 a barrel, in the physical market cargo prices have already got there https://t.co/mfaujswneF
CAR Near $250 Resistance, Potential Squeeze to $300
$CAR trading into resistance in confluence with the 250 call wall. If you've got the pistons, this is a spot to play with defined risk, preferably a close below $250. Hold above, and the squeeze to $300 stays in...
Inflation‑Adjusted Six‑Month Futures Spread Near Record
"After adjusting for inflation, the six-month futures spread is on course to exceed the previous record set in October 1990, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and as the United States and its allies massed forces in the Gulf." @JKempEnergy https://t.co/26TVbx2H9d
Markets Stay Calm Amid Trump's Apocalyptic Warning
President Trump posted "A whole civilization will die tonight..." and the markets seem to be almost totally disregarding the threat... SPX has carved out a restricted range, 5-day ATR is pulling back and the implied overnight volatility in $VIX1D little worried......
NVDA Call Implied Volatility Still Low vs Rich Index Options
Index options are relatively rich single stocks seem cheap this is the ~90DTE NVDA ~5 delta call IV since 2024 https://t.co/LKZoIvKcjG
Accepting Small Losses After Selling VIX Near Peak
Sold a little may vix futures near the high. Happy to lose 20 points on this.
Futures
The oil futures market continues to price a big TACO. Physical oil quotes are sky high, but futures imply a significant improvement in supply in a few weeks. If the market moves to priced a much longer disruption — and see below...
Tesla Short Sellers Profit by Exploiting Hype, Not Fundamentals
Btw, the Tesla shorts are some of the most brilliant investors, traders, and hedge fund managers out there. People like Jim Chanos who predicted the fall of Enron. They are sharks. When they see the $TSLA cucks screaming and crying...
Chris Verrenon
ICYMI: @verrone_chris swung by MRKT call this morning with Dan & @GuyAdami 🎙️ WATCH: https://t.co/pzHBghGVk6 https://t.co/h1ZqY8gJbX
Soybean Complex Becomes Oil‑Driven as CBOT Oilshare Hits Record
📈CBOT oilshare on Tuesday reached a modern-day record high of 52.8%, driven by unrelenting strength in soybean oil since the beginning of the year. This means the soybean complex is more oil-led than ever before, a departure from how the complex...
RWA Perps Unlock High‑Liquidity, High‑Sharpe Trading Opportunities
One of the most exciting transitions in this ecosystem: RWA Perps. I'm very happy and glad to be trading RWA's on a 24/7 basis with lower fees. As a HFT trader within @MNFund_ we design complex quant strategies for our trading, solely...
Brent Futures Hit Record Backwardation Amid US‑Iran Tensions
Brent (physical and futures) still pricing for a short war Brent prices have surged into a record backwardation as the United States and Iran threaten to escalate their conflict by attacking energy infrastructure on both sides of the Persian Gulf. In the...
CME Launches AVAX and SUI Futures on May 4
🇺🇸 The CME exchange will start trading futures on $AVAX and $SUI on May 4. https://t.co/CY0MncvQWy
VIX Stuck in Low‑Volatility ‘Chop Bucket’ All Year
CHART OF THE DAY: VIX Has Traded in the Chop Bucket for Most of 2026's 65 Trading Days https://t.co/bmwQVhQ8D3 via @hedgeye
TSLA Must Stay Above 342 for Call Profit
bought some 350 calls for next week. probably needs to start holding above 342 today for a bounce. $TSLA
May WTI Crude Surges to New High, Up 20%
May WTI crude oil futures are now at a new high and up 20% from Friday's low. https://t.co/rqftGvnrgP
First 2026 Breadth Thrust Signals Positive, More Needed
We got the first breadth thrust of 2026 yesterday (at least the first of the many that I track). Is that a good sign? Yes. Is one enough? No. I prefer to see at least 4 over a two-week period....
SPY
Elevated negative gamma exposure present under spot on $SPY. It is testing a break of $655 now; if there's follow-through, $650 is the next support. As Trump's Iran ceasefire deadline approaches, the market will be looking for any catalysts.
High Volatility Overprices SPX Calls, Hedging Impossible
A three month 7250 SPX call costs 30. In two weeks if SPX is 6950 it will be worth 45-50. Vol is simply too high to hedge either direction.
Soybean Speculators’ Long Stance Fueled by Rising Crude
Bullish Soybean Specs May Depend on Higher Crude At about 19% of open interest, soybean complex managed money (hedge fund) positions are the most net long in roughly three years. Are speculators too optimistic despite a supply glut from Brazil? My...
Corn Speculators Near Peak Longs as Prices Hover $5
Corn Revisits $5 With Specs Long, Gas Falling At about 15% of futures open interest, net-long corn speculators may be overly optimistic for higher prices. My graphic shows spec longs approaching last year's 1Q peak near 18% -- about when the...
Dallas Fans Answer with a Quick 10‑point Comeback
Let me explain this in football terms Imagine arguing with a Dallas Cowboys fan & they come back with a 10 point response
Investors Prefer Inflation Swaps Over Sketchy 1‑Year TIPS
Glad folks are finally using the inflation swap.. not the often-sketchy 1yr TIPS breakeven rate... remember this chart that made the rounds in March lol https://t.co/pHxDS0B0gu
VIX Backwardation Signals Lower Trend, Watch -1.44 Break
April-May $VIX calendar spread closed at -0.49. Still in backwardation. Primary trend remains lower. -$1.44 is the key level to watch. Break below it, and another short-vol squeeze is in play, which means more pressure on stocks. Backwardation doesn't lie. Near-term fear...
VIX Warns: Uptrend May Flip, Watch Closely
The $VIX is a "watch carefully, don't dismiss" indicator right now. The uptrend is intact until it isn't.
Circuit Court Victory Boosts Kalshi, Validates Federal Oversight
Important circuit court win for Kalshi and prediction markets "This state regulation is exactly the patchwork that Congress replaced wholecloth by creating the CFTC"
US Corporate CDS Volumes Surge as Default Risks Rise
US corporate CDS trading volumes are hitting record highs. According to Bloomberg, traders are активно hedging against rising default risks in the corporate sector. https://t.co/1BCuqL0egW
Late‑day OTM $MRVL May $115 Calls Surge
Late day OTM call buyers in $MRVL May $115's ahead of the 5:15pm S&P 500 change replacing $HOLX
Added April Call Positions Across BA, CME, CBOE, and EBAY
added: $BA Apr 215 calls, $CME Apr 310 calls $CBOE Apr 24 Exp 297.50 calls and $EBAY Apr 24 Exp 100 calls
Commodity QIS: Hidden Engine of Systematic Returns
Commodity QIS: An Under-Appreciated Source of Systematic Returns? (S7E29) In this episode I speak with Faheem Osman, Managing Director and Global Head of QIS Structuring at Macquarie Group. Faheem has spent nearly two decades inside major investment banks — first at Citi,...
SPY Gamma Exposure Shows Upside Bias Near $660
$SPY Gamma Exposure update: There's quite a bit of positive exposure overhead, especially around $660. I have $655-$660 as the current range, biased towards upside today. We'll see how things change, especially if a new catalyst comes in.
Speculators Panic: Smallest Options Traders Surge Put Buying
The most speculative traders panicked. For only the 3rd week ever, the smallest options traders spent 1/3 of their volume buying put options to open. The only other weeks were at the height of the Covid washout. https://t.co/rkG2ARDrLF
Stock Volatility Flat While Gold, Crude Volatility Spikes
Stock Market Volatility has never stayed this low vs. spike gold and crude volatility https://t.co/PJye9zoM2S
Vol‑Control Funds Keep Selling as RV Spread Doubles
At the start of the year 1M RV was printing 8-9%. It has more than doubled. Vol-control funds are required by mandate to keep cutting equity exposure until that spread closes. Wouldn't be surprised to see this "unwind" a little...
Bear Call Spread Targets Nifty Below 22650
Entered bear call spread on Nifty 7 Apr expiry. Sold 22650 CE @ 212.05 Bought 22750 CE @ 167.35 Net credit 44.70, RR ~1:1. View is for price to stay below 22650. Not expecting any meaningful upside from here. #Nifty50
Iran Conflict Fuels Volatility in Interest‑rate Swap Markets
Uncertainty over how the Iran war will affect the global economy is stirring volatility in interest-rate swap markets https://t.co/6hCS7QWGmZ via @highisland https://t.co/GLOEYbXZko
Futures Hold Steady; Market Near Volatile Bottom
$NDX $SPX futures holding steady despite the ramp up in rhetoric over the weekend is a good sign. The stock market is severely washed out, we may get a retest or a marginal new low but on watch for a...
Long Bias on Asia ORB: Price Above VWAP
🌏 Asia ORB just set for MNQ ─────── Price is above VWAP — bias is long Buy rips through 24,229 Buy dips at 24,164 as long as price stays above VWAP ─────── Range: 65 pts Watch us trade it live 9am NY: https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ https://t.co/sdYmWTFb2W
Trump’s Iran Ultimatum Spikes Oil, Fuels Market Volatility
Trump's 48-hour Iran ultimatum just sent oil futures through the roof. This geopolitical tension could spell trouble for broader markets. Going live in 2 hours to trade this volatility with our DOTS indicator signals. https://t.co/66dSROeuCi https://t.co/E2Zf77HxKR
Futures Verdict: President’s Weekend Bender Hurts Business
If you were wondering whether the President’s weekend bender helped or hurt the long-term interest of American business, futures markets just opened, and delivered their verdict. https://t.co/YNWdATAMmc
MNQ Gap Fill Could Trigger V‑Shape Recovery or Bearish Drop
Futures market is open and we have a small gap down on MNQ (Nasdaq) I have two different scenarios that I’m waiting for and expect to reveal itself by London session Either we push up and fill the gap, then retest the...
Double‑digit Prompt Spreads Demand Explicit Delivery Month Quotes
When you need to explicitly include delivery months in all crude futures price quotes because we have double digit prompt timespreads https://t.co/cvrXe7FuP3
Crude Oil Gaps Higher, Outpaces Falling Futures
/CLK6 gaps open to 112.96, trades up to 114.83 (Friday close of 111.89)...now +1.7%ish /ESM6 -0.6% /NQM6 -0.7% /ZNM6 -0.03% DXY +0.02%
Understanding the Buffett Put: Weekly Market Insights
Weekly Market Report: The Buffett Put. Almost everything you need to know. Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/6Hq5oQ1ODi
India’s Foreign Policy: Hedge, De‑risk, Diversify for Long‑term Stability
S. Jaishankar, India's Minister of External Affairs on the importance of hedging: “Hedge, de-risk, diversify is how India navigates a fractured world.” STRATEGY OVER NOISE. INDIA PLAYS THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/Y303y6Dl2Q