Funds Go Net Long Wheat, Snap Corn Buying Streak
📈Funds are record bullish CBOT soybean oil & Minne wheat, and they're now net long in CBOT wheat for the first time in nearly 4 years. But funds' corn buying streak snapped. I discuss implications of specs' latest positioning in Sunday's mailing, plus a bonus on corn exports. https://t.co/ZrXZbsLoDq
Rising Delta Amid Falling Price Signals Bounce Intent
Price dropping into NY VWAP… but delta rising? That’s the divergence you want to see. Buyers stepping in beneath the surface = higher probability bounce off value. This is how you read intent, not just price. 📉📈 #VWAP #OrderFlow #FuturesTrading
Small‑cap Call Success: APLD, IREN Lead the Way
Some of y'all know how my calls do when I get small caps....APLD IREN etc Some of you are about to find out.....
Weekend Futures Data Too Small to Be Meaningful
I respectfully disagree with your explanation... The IG Weekend Futures is a tabulation of a very small sampling of contributors on the site. It is statistically insignificant. This is easy to prove - as at times 100% of the respondents are long...
Nifty50 Expected to Trade 22,208‑22,843, Watch VIX
Nifty50 closed Thursday at 22,713.10. Based on current VIX, the implied move for Monday comes in around 22,208 to 22,843. That’s the expected range for now... Any expansion or contraction in VIX will shift this, so keeping an eye on vol...
RBI Bans Rupee Shorting Tools, but Impact Doubtful
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is stepping in to try to slow the rupee’s slide. By restricting derivatives and other tools traders use to SHORT the rupee, the RBI is trying to suppress bets AGAINST the currency. THE RBI'S ENGAGED...
Brent Dips to $109, but Spread Signals Monday Rally
Brent futures price fell $3.54 from $112.57 to $109.03 week ending April 3 12-month spread suggests strong upward price movement on Monday #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/oCVTbEi9lm
VIX Futures Flatten, Term Structure Normalizes Yet Remains Elevated
Here's what I'm looking at. VX futures are more flat than backwardated when compared to 3/27 levels. And the futures "curve" is tangled up with spot VIX. This is obviously a big improvement but still not "bullish." Meanwhile, the @CBOE...
GraniteShares ETF Unlocks 20%+ Autocallable Yields
Banks kept autocallable income locked behind high minimums for years. @graniteshares just put it in an ETF — 20%+ yields. NASDAQ seminar April 10 explains it all. @willrhind https://t.co/Xx3nS8vCjF
Questioning Futures Curve: What Is True December WTI Expectation?
Assuming, as most of you seem to have massive confidence, that the futures curve is not a reflection of true market expectations of future spot. Current Dec Futures are 72.5 ish. What do you think the market expectations for...
War's End Determines Brent Spot vs Futures Direction
This is the spot Brent oil price (white), the Brent March futures that just expired this week (orange), the current Brent June futures (yellow) and WTI (green). If war ends quickly, white converges down to yellow. If war drags on,...
SPX Hits 6300, Neutral FY26 Valuation Band
$SPX Pretty interesting 6300 found buyers, my Neutral Valuation Band level for FY26 (roll to FY27 as enter 2H26) https://t.co/Z3ppbki8g5
Trend‑following Winters Test Discipline, but Reward Patience
Futures trend-following is the most difficult trading style. "Trend following winters" cause traders to lose discipline and stop following the systems, which over longer periods are very profitable. 👇
Futures Signal Oil Prices Will Normalize by Summer
HASSETT: "You don't have to believe me, just look at the futures markets, which trade future contracts on these things--and they're way back headed towards normal by the fall and certainly into the summer" https://t.co/MJNzrqID5k
Oil Futures Curve Contradicts White House’s Iran Disruption Claim
White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s...
Equity Futures Slip Ahead of Jobs Data Release
Equity futures a little lower ahead of jobs report... they'll trade until 915am ET https://t.co/x9qe4wyzJv
Brent Futures Discount Deepens Amid Spot Oil Shortage
The discount on the Brent future expiring in June to the spot Brent oil price is up to 22%. There's acute shortage of oil in the spot market, while futures markets think the war ends soon. This decoupling isn't unprecedented....
Spot Oil Outpaces Futures as War‑end Expectations Rise
Lots of people say the disconnect between spot and futures prices in oil means markets are broken. No! Spot Brent at $140 (white) is above the June future (yellow) because markets think the war ends soon and tanker traffic comes...
Bond Volatility Drives Global Cross‑asset Market Turbulence
If the PPT wants/needs to manipulate the US Equity Futures, that's fine - we know how that ends (gravity always wins) The real problem is Bond Market Vol and there's no change to that TRENDING Breakout Pretty much every position, everywhere,...
Binance Gold & Silver Futures Hit Top Five Volume
Despite Binance being a crypto exchange, futures trading for gold and silver has already entered the top 5 by trading volume on the platform. These trades were launched very recently. Crypto exchanges are gradually moving into the "traditional" exchange space by...
Copper Turns Macro Hedge, Volatility Outpaces Fundamentals
Copper is increasingly trading like a macro hedge, raising volatility far beyond what near-term fundamentals imply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/copper-as-macro-hedge-is-rewriting.html
Brent Basis Spread Hits $32, Shifts to June Contract
Goldman>The gap between dated Brent-the cornerstone of the global physical oil market and the reference point for many crude purchases by global refineries-and the near-dated Brent futures-which shifted from the May to the June contract...
Forward Curve Isn't a Forecast—Don't Trust Future Prices
🔹Be careful: the forward curve is not a forecast. It has rarely matched actual realized prices. For example, if you assume the December 2026 futures price reflects where the market will actually be at that time, you’re to be...
Brent Crude Futures Plunge Sharply This Week
Brent crude oil futures looking out a few months and beyond are down sharply in the past week @augurinfinity https://t.co/0xHk81TJYg https://t.co/VVmceseKBH
Kodiak Gap Move Sparks
Kodiak (KOD) holding recent gap move well sees sneaky buy late for 350 Sep. $45 calls 8.50 to 9.00
S&P 500 Futures Trade 24/7 on DEX This Weekend
This is the first long weekend where S&P500 futures will trade 24/7/365 on a decentralized exchange.
Australia’s EWA Sees
Australia (EWA) rare large action seeing a big IV surge with 15,000 July $29 puts bought $2.13 to $2.40 today, a country exposed to a China slowdown, stronger USD and RBA tightening
Earned $685 Option Income Adding TSLL, META, HIMS
Mixed day for my portfolio where I added $TSLL, $META and $HIMS for $685 in option income. Did you do anything in the markets today?
Crude Jumps 11%, ES_F Barely
It's early lol...but if told me Crude would be up 11% would think ES_F be down 2%, not 0.2%...progress
VFS Surges; 6K May‑5 Calls Bought Today
VFS quietly on an insane run last few weeks, 6K May 5 calls buying today
Renting Cushing WTI Barrel Yields 25% Monthly Return
Prompt WTI timespreads today hit a record high of $15/bbl If you've currently got a barrel of physical WTI-deliverable crude in the Cushing area, you can *rent* said barrel to the market for the next two and a half weeks and...
Buying Opposite‑direction Short Options = Long Volatility
Q: if you buy short-dated calls after sharp sell offs and buy short-dated puts after rips, are you effectively long or short vol? Asking for a friend :-)
Big Money Finds $40 Comfortable for Nike Stock
$40 appears to be the level big money is comfy buying the dog $NKE (minus the premium raised via the put sales)
WTI Backwardation Spikes, Shale Hedging Options Remain Limited
CHART OF THE DAY: The extreme backwardation in WTI oil futures, and the impact on (lack of) hedging opportunities for US shale for 2027-28. While the front of the curve has exploded (+$44 a barrel), the back (24 months out...
Manual Vs. Hawk Algo: Conflicting Signals Prompt Tuning
This is a tough call... My manual process says these are sold to open Hawk Algo logic which has been refined many times says bought, so think will need to tweak more Alternative pricing methods are mixed https://t.co/fkZFK0A8Dn
Oil Prompt Spread Hits Record Backwardation
Look at that backwardation...prompt spread (difference between the front-month oil futures contract and the subsequent contract) blowing out to records https://t.co/KBfkkpr9IC
Call Volume Spikes Align with QQQ, NVDA, Quantum Rally
Seems noteworthy that median daily call volumes traded across US exchanges peaked in October along with: $QQQ, $NVDA, Quantum computing stocks ($QBTS, $IONQ, $RGTI), $PLTR (a couple days into November, but still), and Goldman Sachs’ “retail favorites” index. https://t.co/oPZuFod0Gx
Maintenance Lending Launches Scalable ftUSD, Enables Hedged Returns
Maintenance based lending is the first true defi evolution after LTV based lending. Enables an entirely new suite of hedged strategies that can move from active management to passive management. Less stress for borrowers, better yield for depositors. Many new features...
Equity Volatility Undervalued as Futures Slide 1.5%
The equity vol is still asleep relative to the oil move. The 0DTE SPX straddle is just $55 (85 bps). Futures are down 1.5% overnight. Something ain't right. https://t.co/kmBuM66ebE
Buy Energy, Use Pump Puts Amid Market Divergence
In today's Early Look: "Long Energy & Pump Puts" While the Tourist crowd was busy chasing $SPY and $QQQ to lower-highs yesterday, the fractal was telling a different story. That's why I opted to buy Oil/Energy and introduce what I'm calling...
Signal Calls for Buying Pump Puts and Oil
Heading into the speech last night, our Signaling Process said Buy Pump Puts and Buy Oil #timestamped https://t.co/nyETDd8H3G
Gold Volatility Persists—Plenty of Time to Exit
Gold's Volatility didn't leave the F-Bucket either - there was plenty of time to get out and/or reduce your position https://t.co/0tctCT4A1x
IWM Pump Puts: Clear Bet on Russell Volatility
Buying Russell $IWM Pump Puts was an obvious play with Russell Volatility (RVX) in the F-Bucket https://t.co/IQnqgOdKmH
MAG Locks Jet Fuel Costs Amid 140% Price Surge
Now we know MAG has hedged their jet fuel between US$60-US$80 per barrel for 2026. With the price of jet fuel going up 140% one can only wonder what is happening to airlines that didn’t hedge their jet fuel. Do...
Potential Futures Data Opportunity, Details Limited to StockTwits
This seems like a good opportunity for futures data, I have no details beyond what @stocktwits has shared so please dont ask me any questions about it https://t.co/eqqoBaCQZg
SPX Targets 6,650 Upside, 6,400 Downside Tomorrow
Based on closing SPX positions, it looks like 6,650 is best case upside for tomorrow. Downside open to 6,400. GL https://t.co/o3MdAytDAn
Credit-Derivative Trading Hits Record Volumes, Says OG Markets
Credit-derivative trading volumes have surged to record highs. The OG prediction markets @markets via @augurinfinity https://t.co/hAxDHk0zOC https://t.co/9es8129em1
Billions in FX Options Expire Tomorrow Across EUR, JPY, AUD
Interesting FX Option Expirations Tomorrow 1.4 bln euros at $1.1650 $1.7 bln JPY159 and $1.5 bln at JPY160 A$1.14 bln at $0.6900.
Silver Futures Contango Widening Resurfaces
The spread is waking up again Renewed widening in the contango between #SHFE Silver Futures and #SGE
Bullish March 2027 Short Straddles Gain Traction
Directional (bullish) Mar. 2027 short straddles been an interesting new strategy to emerge in several key names the past week into the correction