Investors Misread VIX: Fear Indicator vs Trade Asset
i think there are a lot of people now conflating VIX as a fear indicator vs VIX/volatility as an asset class and the idea that "don't people get whats going on?" im sure they do its just not today's problem its >=next week so lets short these puts and make that VIX revert
VIX Breaks Trendline, Market Fear Cooling, Bullish Outlook
Interesting setup on the VIX today, it just broke that rising trendline we've been watching since January. Market fear is clearly cooling off, pointing to a solid trend reversal for US equities. Let's see if the bulls can actually hold...
Buy Siemens Exchangeables for Yield, Hedge Risk
Macro: demand for equity‑linked supply. JPMorgan offers €375m (+€50m) 2031 cash‑settled exchangeables on Siemens at 20% premium. Risk: Siemens equity/credit. Insight: Buy for yield, hedge. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
VIX Dips Below Pre‑Iran War Level, Signaling Calm
The $VIX ended the day at 19.49, which is below the level it closed at the day before the Iran war began (19.86 on Feb 27). All is calm again... https://t.co/8iOlF6bfQZ
SPX Futures Reclaim Resistance, Breaks Downtrend Line
$SPX Futures tagged 6,854 today. That's a full reclaim of $6,680 and $6,808 resistance, a break above the Q1 downtrend line, and the 21 EMA back underneath price. Now let's see if this holds through CPI tomorrow and whatever drama happens on...
Record Prompt Backwardation Drives Extreme Spot Premiums
The vast majority of the “dislocation between physical and paper barrels” is very simply extreme backwardation, meaning the steep premiums for spot deliverable barrels (as BBG referred to them today, ASAP barrels) relative to later-dated cargoes. Crude futures curves have...
VIX Returns to Pre‑War Levels, Signaling Calm
VIX signals worst of the war is over. All three (VIX, futures and VIX of the VIX) back down to pre-war levels Could shift back higher (of course) but currently, back to normal https://t.co/q54gbzBIYf
Fragile Ceasefire Sparks 6865 S&P Target
A Fragile ‘Ceasefire’ & 6865 $SPX Price Target This morning's premarket rant - before coffee. I should have said $6845. After we hit it + given $184M in Sept $6900/6910 calls were sold today, my VIX 19.29 bounce level is likely in...
ISOs Offer Wealth Potential, But Tax Risks Loom
For clients receiving Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) as part of their compensation, the potential for wealth creation can be significant – but so too is the risk of adverse tax consequences if not handled properly. https://t.co/YA6mBVn0qA #ISOs
Use Synthetic Futures with Fixed Expiry to Smooth Perp Funding
i know everyone wants to just compare one number to another... but instead of having perps track the front month contract and have funding spikes during rolls... why not just have perps target a synthetic future with a constant time to expiration?
6830 Emits Billions of Gamma Rays—Few Knew
There are those that knew that 6830 had billions of gamma and those that did not https://t.co/lMQgrq5vbK
News Ignored Futures OI; Gold Up, Palladium Hits Low
News today did not lead to higher PM futures open interest (unless you count gold OI being 2.5k contracts off the bottom)... #gold 357k +2.5k #copper 228k +3k #silver 116k +0.6k #platinum 61k +1k #palladium 14.6k -0.6k new low
CAR Set for Wild 0DTE Trap Tomorrow
$CAR not letting up 0DTE tomorrow all they did was trap trap trap this week - going to be the craziest 0DTE day we've seen in quite some time lol
VIX Breaks 2026 Trend, Signals End of Market Chop
The $VIX just broke below its 2026 uptrend line. Combined with positive gamma, this market may be exiting the chop. Time will tell.
Core CPI Must Rescue Markets Amid 0.9% Crude Spike
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
Prediction Markets Evolve: Hedging, Block‑Trades Shape Future
Last month I sat down with @luanalopeslara and @mansourtarek_ to ask the co-founders of @Kalshi what the future of prediction markets might look like. From hedging to block-trades, this space is still evolving and the conversation continues. Watch this space👀
10‑Year Yield Above 4.4% Proves Unmanageable
Well that is a problem given that in the last couple weeks, the MOVE Volatility Index and US policymakers’ actions (TACO’d every single time 10y hit 4.4%) empirically showed that the US & world cannot handle >4.4% on the 10y. #YouDownWithYCCYeahYouKnowMe
Inside Market Maker Privilege and the Vanishing AMEX Floor
Long one today on "market maker privilege" Packed with story, opinion, and gritty details of the way things work. Including this very hard to find picture of the AMEX floor when it was open https://t.co/4PMRBEdGAx cc floor traders who are time-for-a-colonoscopy years old https://t.co/kmosRyopNm
Institutional Net Call Buying Hits Record Since Conflict Start
"Yesterday saw the biggest day of institutional net call buying since the conflict began in our data" --@vandaresearch
Whale Takes $30M BTC Short at 40x Leverage
A whale has opened a $30,113,000 $BTC short with 40x leverage. Liquidation Price: $71,941 https://t.co/Z6iyHitvPl
Hedging Reveals Balance of Confidence, Narrative, and Action
The equilibrium between confidence, stories, and actions is never clearer than when we turn to hedging...
Fund Managers Cut Dutch TTF Gas Bullish Stance
INVESTMENT MANAGERS trimmed their bullish position in Europe’s benchmark Dutch TTF gas contract last week for the first time since the war between the United States and Iran started. Fund managers sold the equivalent of 14 terawatt-hours (TWh) of futures...
Sterling Bears Higher War Premium than Euro in Options
Sterling is carrying more of a war premium than the euro in options https://t.co/0TGxw7IWtw via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/auNGmA7b1x
Investing $100k in Call Options on Next Big
This week, I'm investing $100,000 in call options on a stock. This is my biggest trade since $GME, $OPEN, $TSLA, $NVDA, and $AMD. Remember me, 99% of traders miss out on this potential stock like $OPEN. But I won't, and neither will...
Holding Nifty 23600 CE Until IV Drops Below 10
Holding Nifty 13 Apr 23600 CE. Risky trade given elevated premiums, though IV has cooled to ~16. Still not cheap. Plan is simple. Holding as long as IV stays above 10. Any further crush and I’ll look to roll over to the...
Turn Market Volatility Into Nifty Options Wins
🚨 WEBINAR ALERT 🚨 From Volatility to Victory: Nifty Forecasting with Options Trading Market volatility can be a trader’s biggest fear—or their greatest advantage. Over the last 30 years, Rohit Srivastava has mastered the art of reading market cycles to anticipate the...
Traders Bet $950M Oil Drop Ahead of Trump Ceasefire
JUST IN: Traders placed $950,000,000 in bets on oil prices falling just hours before President Trump announced ceasefire with Iran
Markets Rally on Weak Fundamentals; Oil, Dollar, Yields Likely Hold
"CEASEFIRE" and $SPX 6800 – Now What? Markets ripping yet risk remains high with fundamentals weak behind the move. My bet: Oil, Dollar, Yields & VIX won't fall as much as bulls hope. Also, some trading tips on hedging swing short exposure. https://t.co/by1pQIVgSP
Ceasefire Doesn't Lower Hormuz Disruption Risk After August
I've been watching oil forward prices for markets assumed probability of Strait of Hormuz disruption 1, 2, 3, months out. Ceasefire has not changed probability of disruption from August onward. (NB: Warning, Claude generated figure)🧵1/n https://t.co/bKfB2j9tPA
VIX May Have Shifted Trend—Implications Unclear
Has the $VIX broken its rate of trend? Does it matter? I mull it over.. @stockcharts https://t.co/pLhBGqVXTt https://t.co/IidONIUenY
Prefer Long XLP Over Volatile Bounces, Says Carter Worth
"I'd rather be long this than the other things that have had impetuous bounces and that are likely to have to give back some or all of the bounce." 🎙️ @CarterBWorth gives his $XLP take on MRKT Call with @GuyAdami https://t.co/rV5CrDFynU
Rising VIX Triggers New SPY and QQQ Short Positions
@thestreetpro Wed, Apr 8 at 1:22 PM Initiating Index shorts: * $SPY $676.06 * $QQQ $607.33 I am keying my short entry points on the action of the VIX - which is now at 21.25 more than +$1 from the day's low of 19.99 (and...
My Theories Prove Right: Calls Gap up, Hold Key Levels
While they arguing my theories…every call on my board gapped up & now holding key levels🤷🏾♂️
Futures Market Crumbling as Physical Oil Scarcity Persists
The Strait of Hormuz May remain shut, the barrels of oil may remain firmly locked in. The ceasefire may not hold. But nobody will dare go long on crude futures. Because there will be yet another false dawn, and they will get...
Media Hype Mirrors CEOs' Enthusiasm for Corporate Hedges
LOL - The media's coverage of corporate hedges - not to mention CEOs' delight in those hedges - would appear to perfectly mirror their perceived value... https://t.co/iyhM43S3Yl
SPX Above 6800 Triggers Heavy Selling, Below Supports Buying
In terms of SPX buying/selling pressure the key thing is that >6,800 the pressure gets heavy (darker red) which builds up into the billions of delta notional selling. Its light buying support below ~$500mm of delta buying below, selling above =...
Managed Futures Diversify Amid YTD Market Chaos
Carry and trend managed futures strategies hard at work diversifying against the chaos YTD. https://t.co/XvXlGj7r2y
Volatility Plummets to YTD Lows as Market Improves
$VIX $VIX9D Servepro, like it never happened/ Vol is having a fire sale near YTD lows because it's all better now https://t.co/sR8Qr60aaR
Short VIX Futures, Half‑Size SPX/NDX Put Spreads
Covered short in vix futures. Bought SPX and NDX put spreads at half max size. See you in a month.
Pakistan‑brokered Ceasefire Fuels S&P Gap‑up Rally
Big news Tuesday night as Pakistan helped broker a two-week ceasefire, and Europe/Asia are broadly higher. $SPX futures +165 have us gapping into 6810–6840 major resistance, so we’ll see how much of the gap holds. Trim and trail into it,...
Volatility Persists; Upside Calls Hedge Downside Risk
Binary events are NOT easy to call or trade with conviction. Some think they can smell the Trump TACO in the room: “civilization - decimated” talk. Escalate to de-escalate game theory stuff. Not my game. What I smell are charts, flows &...
Gold and Oil Volatility Set to Lift Stock Market Volatility
Buried US Stock-Market Volatility Ripe to Recover Declining S&P 500 180-day volatility in 2026 is an anomaly alongside surging gold and crude oil volatility, with implications for risk-asset reversion. My graphic highlights what could signal the next big trade: surging volatility...
Cross‑Asset Volatility of Volatility Drives Today’s Close
Where Cross Asset Class Vol of Volatility goes will be a critical factor by today's close https://t.co/DtnskJ6o1i
Pakistan Ceasefire Fuels Green Arrow Rally, Watch Resistance
Mostly green arrows around the World as Pakistan brokers a two week ceasefire. Europe and Asia are potentially higher $spx futures +165 Make sure to trim and trail as $spy has pretty major resistance $677 $qqq has pretty major resistance $610ish https://t.co/k3DBWKaiiR
Implied Moves for Today's Reporting Stocks Listed
This is the implied move for the stocks of today's reporting companies: $DAL $RPM $APLD $STZ $PSMT $RGP $RELL $PCYO https://t.co/WiPDnAF1sX
Relief From VIX Updates After Busy Stock Call Season
In case people forgot how I get down with stock calls on threads May-Sept......and then we had a lil mini run in January & then I had to tell everybody VIX levels for 2 months Thank God I don't have to say...
Greed Wins: S&P Up 31% After VIX Spike
Update: a year ago, the $VIX ended the week at 45.3, one of its highest weekly closes in history. The S&P 500 has rallied 31% since then, adding to the list of times when it paid to be greedy when...
Rare DXY Gap Appears in 23‑Hour Futures Market
Very rare event in the 23-hr futures market where you rarely ever see gaps. Look at the #DXY tonight #forex $UUP $FXE #DXY https://t.co/vOGAm4AaUO
Falling TDEX Signals Market Complacency Amid Crash Bets
The tail risk index (TDEX) is a measure to understand the cost of protection against a possible crash as it shows the implied volatility of far OTM puts of SPX. Currently is heading lower giving us a confirmation of complacency...
Fed Dovish Shift Boosts Bullish Momentum, Watch ES
The Fed's dovish shift is music to bulls' ears as inflation continues cooling. Markets are already pricing in easier monetary policy ahead. Tomorrow we'll be watching how ES reacts to this momentum using our DOTS indicator for precise entries. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...