Added GOOGL Calendar Spread, Selling 300 Put
added $GOOGL Apr 27 Exp/May 1 Exp 330 call calendar selling Apr 27 Exp 300 put
Added SPY & QQQ Call Calendar Risk Reversals
added $SPY May/June 700 call calendars selling May 640 put (call calendar risk reversal) and $QQQ May/June 640 call calendar risk reversals (with May 560 put short)
Fast 6865 SPX Move, 60:1 Odds on 6180 Put Butterfly
Yep 6865 SPX cash happens fast. 60:1 long shot odds available for a 100 point 6180 put butterfly. Yes please.
Record Net Longs Signal Potential Bitcoin Rally
Interesting speculative activity in Bitcoin futures. Net speculative positioning is at a record long while open interest has trended lower. Last two net long peaks were basing lows before strong runs higher https://t.co/7QgmGjGCng
WTI Backwardation Stays Massive at $6.06 per Barrel
The backwardation in US WTI crude futures (active nearby - second contract) is +$6.06... Was as high as +$16.50, but this is still enormous. Blue is the OVX oil volatility index: https://t.co/mGUKpZpzet
Buy Front-End On
Solid strategy to buy the front end when pricing hikes. Trump generally turns it around with a positive spin. 5s up more than 10 ticks since the Globex Sunday night open.
Netflix Poised for $7 Swing Ahead of Earnings
$NFLX heading higher ahead of earnings. Options chain expiring April 17th is projecting a (+/-) $7.00 move.
SPX Hits 6317, Confirming 6300 Implied Support Level
$SPX low hit was 6317 Super-interesting, my annual market outlook lays out all levels (shown) 6310 was AVWAP off 2025 low but even more interesting I lay out start of year implied move levels which tend to show a lot of...
Oil Prices Set to Stay High, Boost Energy Options Trade
JUST IN: Oil prices are poised to remain elevated longer, positioning an options trade on this energy stock for gains.
Sold 10k Intel Sep
Intel (INTC) 10,000 Sep. 95 calls sold to open 3.63 Guess I would be willing to be called away there too..
STMicro Call Surge Signals AI-Driven Bull Run
ST Micro (STM) buyers 10,000 May $45 calls 1.10 to 1.15, been a major winner since write-up few weeks back on the AI angle
SPX Implied Vol Premium Plummets From 95% to 13
$SPX Implied Vol collapsed to a +13% premium (vs. 30-day realized) vs. a +95% premium 1-month ago https://t.co/JxuNpzgXz1
Gold Volatility Signals Caution for US Equities
Cross Asset Class Vol as of Friday's close = yellow lights for US Equities; Gold Vol in particular matters at this level https://t.co/VoSL6lvMfU
Hedgeye's VIX Risk Range Analysis Delivers Recent Alpha
Undaunted and strictly process oriented, @KeithMcCullough @hedgeye provided a valuable analysis of the VIX risk range that producedexcess returns (alpha) in the last several trading days. That analysis was worth the price of admission alone. @dougkass @SamofAmerica @HedgeyeDJ
Covered Calls Aren’t Income, They’re Position Reductions
Selling a covered call does not "generate income". It represents cash proceeds from reducing your position (the functional equivalent to selling), and paying a massive bid-ask spread to do so. https://t.co/evuVehJaQT
Futures Slip 1% While Straddle Expects 0.81% Move
futures open down 1% and the straddle is currently pricing in a move of 0.81% no one cares about your middle east doom
Screen‑traded Crude No Longer Reliable Price Gauge
Tough news flow to start the overnight session, but I don’t think screen-traded crude is a useful indicator right now. Pretty much all asset classes have internalized the fact that a barrel delivered in a barrel in futures pricing are...
RBOB Gasoline Futures Hover Around $3.20 After Volatile Swing
RBOB gasoline futures tagged $3.40 at the March peak... dropped to $2.90... now $3.20.. chopfest https://t.co/3gXzdFHSvH
Volatility Crush Fuels 3% S&P Rally, Hints Ahead
Last week's vol crush sent the S&P 500 surging 3%. Read up on the mechanics behind the rally — and what they could mean moving forward: https://t.co/Lv07xyrLge
Huge $74.5M Leveraged Oil Short Near $115 Liquidation
Someone has opened a $74,543,000 oil short position with 4x leverage. Liquidation Price: $115.06👀 https://t.co/wQYzazJF4F
Traders Expect SPX Pullback After Two‑Week Rally
I’d think a downside retracement will Be a welcome sign for traders after the size of the two week rally. What’s everyone’s guess for 6:30 eastern tonight for the $spx futures. They will trade all night and who knows news...
Market Watch Claims Falling Futures Despite Closed Market
Amusing that MW says futures are moving lower when they're obv closed, this lady doesn't want to be writing during the back nine https://t.co/sHdhxZ7dE0 https://t.co/eUWgp9AmMe
Commodities Futures Add Value to Balanced Portfolios
If you look at the data, investing in commodities futures makes sense within the context of a total portfolio approach. https://t.co/KYqknJKQ54
Institution Holds Massive Oil Shorts Near $115/$121
An institution is heavily shorting Oil. They have opened: - $74,388,000 Crude Oil short with liquidation at $114.98 - $24,678,000 Brent Oil short with liquidation at $121.2 https://t.co/vARO0PhagV
US NatGas Futures Slip to $2.65, Outlook Flat
U.S. natural gas futures price fell $0.15 from $2.80 to $2.65 for the week ending April 10 Price is likely to move sideways or fall slightly on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/61URlYt6Lw
Futures Trend-Following Up YTD, Weekly Dip Amid Volatility
Futures trend-following (our strat and futures universe. YTD up 3.3%; the strategy was down 2.2% for the week. The drawdown from all-time equity highs is 17.6%. TF is struggling amid elevated vol in all markets. Link in reply below. 👇...
SEM's Risky Rolled‑call Strategy Nets Big Trader Bonuses
Yep...SEM group basically running a not so covered call strategy then martingaling by repeatedly rolling into an insanely faded markets every day. Got a lot of options traders on NYMEX paid. Got my first big boy bonus thanks to them....
Brent Futures Lag Physical Oil, Gap Set to Close
The futures price for Brent crude is around $109/bbl. But physical oil is trading closer to $145/bbl. THAT'S AN UNSUALLY LARGE PRICE GAP. THE FUTURES MARKET WILL EVENTUALLY BE MUGGED BY REALITY, AND THE GAP WILL BE CLOSED. https://t.co/XVXx6bRg9Z
Volatility Flows Into Vol Funds, Boosting Their Weight
The vol gets recycled to vol funds so you can expect the vol in those names to be a bit heavier.
Equity Derivatives Offer Abundant Opportunities Regardless of Market Direction
Whether you believe asset prices will go higher or go lower from here there is a LOT of opportunity right now in the equity derivatives market. Weekend filled with digging through different vol surfaces, data, and shocks and slides. Stay...
European Energy Traders Brace for 21‑Hour Volatility Surge
Europe energy traders brace for 21-hour day as volatility surges https://t.co/lLXIQjQymB via @priazrocha @MaznevaElena https://t.co/BPlqCQG5sx
Weather Trading Booms, Drawing Casuals, Experts, and Tech Firms
Weather trades are gaining traction, drawing in casual participants, experts and tech firms testing their wares. https://t.co/BanKD2PjIG
Tail Risk Peaked Early, Vanished Before SPX Bottom
Weekend blog post features a chart built on the unique data found only @Nations_Indexes. Did you notice that tail risk (red line) peaked early in the correction and had faded by the time SPX hit its low? That was interesting...
Market Holds Near Highs as Volatility Crumbles
Despite war, an oil shock, and nonstop tweets, the market is holding near highs and volatility just got crushed. With OPEX coming up next week, @spotgamma and I are back to break it all down. https://t.co/FIJLn2JfZr
Expect SPX Dip, Buying Puts at Current Levels
Saturday 3/28 SPX 6400. Expect a sizable dip on Monday and "Nothing but a buyer" Saturday 4/11. SPX 6820 buying puts last week at current levels . Just doing what we do. https://t.co/ZSOy0u6uI1
Ceasefire News Drops Oil Futures, Defying Shortage Expectations
There was lots of talk how acute "physical" shortage in the spot market would pull up futures prices of oil. That turned out to be totally wrong. News of a ceasefire pulled down futures, which in turn pulled down spot...
Market Makers Manage Gamma, Not Predict Direction
Today’s GammaGrid Insights: Most people think market makers are predicting direction. They’re not...They’re managing gamma. Thread 👇 #Nifty50 #OptionsTrading
Oil Futures Lag Behind Spot Prices Amid Supply Shock
From The New York Times : “The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices...
Hedge Funds' Short Covering Crushed Market as Retail Shifts
From the TFF which I much prefer to COT. The last month was clear. Long only asset managers do what they always do which is chase price. Through tuesday they were nothing but buyers and must have...
Rolled QQQ Put Spreads,
Adjustment: $QQQ May 590/550 1x2 put spreads ==> June 600/564.78-560 1x2 put spreads taking $2.30
Build Wealth Before 40 with LEAPS and Shares
For those of you 21-30 the trick to wealth before your 40 is stocks If your trading - LEAPS If you can’t afford the leap contract buy shares Leaps + shares = wealth building No it’s not the “day trading...
Sell Low‑delta Options: High Win Rate, Disciplined Profit
When I sell a .25 delta option I have ~ 75% chance of keeping all the premium. Do that consistently across good stocks, manage the losers, and the math compounds in your favor over time. Options buyers need luck. Options sellers need...
Crowd Mis‑hedged Tails, Expect Bull‑trap Stabilization
Crowd was under-hedged for the right-tail and over- hedged for the left-tail. My “stabilization into bull trap” call: https://t.co/7eiBkt8qyD
VIX Breach Predicts Sharp Equity Decline
Attention Homegamers... @KeithMcCullough analysis or the $VIX risk range (yesterday and today) was worth the price of @hedgeye admission. Look what happened to equities at about 10:30 AM when the VIX, at first broke support at 19.05- 19.10 (it went...
High‑Vol Straddle Offers Near
Dec 2028 SNDK straddles at 100 vol bid. That makes the premium of the 970 strike 970. Meaning stock has to go negative to lose on the downside. Obvi if like YTD the stock doubles your SOL....
Futures Can Diverge From Spot Prices Long-Term
While phys/spot crude $ HAS to reflect immediate supply/demand pressures, and the spread to future cargoes needs to reflect scarcity (backwardation) or surplus (contango), futures $ never NEED to converge—and can remain steeply below—to those same levels in the short/medium-term
Volatility Collapse Persists Amid Fragile Ceasefire
What is up with this... We are heading into the weekend with a ceasefire that both sides are actively punching holes through, and implied volatility has the market looking like it is walking into headlights. VIX still dropping, 1-day - 30-day spread...
Momentum Trade Drives Market Rotation, Says Sonders
The momentum trade is the ROTATION🔁 🎙️ @LizAnnSonders joins @GuyAdami on the latest RiskReversal pod https://t.co/tBWFON4NpS
Weekly One‑Idea Episodes on The Options Trench
Thanks for the share 🐴 Erik and I actually release an episode every week. We're about 6 weeks into it. Each one is organized around 1 idea. It's a podcast and YT channel called The Options Trench 🫡
Embrace Volatility: Zoom Out and Grow Wealth
Volatility is the cost of admission to grow your wealth. At the end of this video, I share three practical tips on how to help deal with (or ignore) the volatility. ‘If in doubt, zoom out’ Comment ‘Guide’ for my...