Fed Swaps Signal Dovish Pivot, Pricing 15bps Cuts by December
JUST IN: Fed swaps indicate a dovish pivot, pricing 15 bps in rate cuts by December.
Buy 120 Call Calendar, Sell 99 Put
$NFLX "Trade Idea 3: Buy the April/May 120 Call Calendar ($1.05) and sell the April 99 Put for 50 cents.' may need to roll puts down and out, April calls expire leaving a May call
US Equity Futures Rally, All Major Indexes Rise
JUST IN: US S&P 500 E-MINI futures gained 0.8%, NASDAQ futures rose 0.9%, and Dow futures climbed 1.1%.
VIX Plunges 40%—Risk Priced Out or Complacency?
The VIX closed at 17.94 on April 16 — down from a peak of 29.3 on March 30. A nearly 40% collapse in implied volatility in under three weeks. Two explanations exist: the market correctly priced out transient geopolitical risk, or...
Options Expiry Weakens Support; Market Too Complacent, Says Goldman
JUST IN: Options expiration erodes stock support, as Goldman's Delta-One desk head cautions the market is too complacent.
Firm Takes Massive 30k Call/Put Risk Reversal Exposure
2nd day in a row that a Firm (i.e. bank) has had on a massive 7k strike combo/risk reversal Short ~30k calls, and long ~30k puts. So MM has the other side. That is a lot of deltas... to put 30k into context...
Trend Following Mirrors Delta Hedging, Yields ~8% Floor
Trend following is ~delta hedging. No surprise the payoff looks like a long straddle. Note the min PNL appears to be ~the expected annual return to equities at ~8%. Nice report from @larryswedroe, btw
SPX Futures Show Upside; Trim
No #630club on Fridays. I might do a quick 8:50 catch up to end the week.. SPX futures giving more upside follow thru to end the week.. Trim and trail and enjoy the weekend.. https://t.co/fH1CD4xBNZ
Analysis Right, Patience Wrong: Missed Nifty Target
Exited early from 24000 CE… and of course it went straight to target after that 🙂...Booked decent, but market clearly said “thoda aur ruk jaata toh better hota” Classic.🤣💥 Target was 415...420, it printed 424. Sometimes analysis right hota hai, patience wrong ho...
HIP4 Launches Binary Options, Volume Surge Expected
HIP4 enables binary options on @HyperliquidX I expect an explosion of volume. $HYPE = $150 is just the beginning.
Nifty Call Rise Driven by Flow, Not Volatility
Holding Nifty 21 Apr 24000 CE, avg around 350.80. Spot above 24.3k, but IV still relatively muted near ~17. That tells me this move is more flow driven than vol expansion. From a GammaGrid Insights view, price is moving in a positive...
CFTC Chair Faces Bipartisan Pushback Over Crypto Prediction Markets
"Sports and war prediction markets and crypto-backed perpetual futures came under fire during a House committee hearing Thursday." CFTC Chair Mike Selig Faces Bipartisan Pushback on Prediction Markets, Hyperliquid Perps https://t.co/eRt5FRHcd1
11 Consecutive Upside Days Confirm 200‑DMA Break
Haven't talked nearly enough about the 11 up-days or whatever coming off a clean break and 'confirmation' of the break of the 200 DMA $ES_F https://t.co/Zpw85DQaN9
Volatility Crushed; Oil Index Still in Crisis Zone
Volatility is getting crushed across the board. While Oil vol $OVX has declined, it is still in the crisis zone. This is called a non-confirmation.
VIX Dips Below 18, S&P Eyes Sixth Record High
$VIX back under 18 as the S&P 500 is poised to notch its 6th record high of the year https://t.co/dTiaN91ynn
Gasoline Futures Hold Strong, AAA Avg Near $4.10
Gasoline future remain bid up pretty well.. $3.15 on RBOB will keep the AAA average near $4.10. https://t.co/frWo9xgFHU
Missing Protection at Market Peaks Leads to Regret
Remember 3 weeks ago when you were mad at yourself for not buying protection/insurance when markets were at their all time highs and the vix was in the teens...? https://t.co/xBbSHvbDuL
HYG Options Shockingly Cheap, IV30 at 5.1%
Always seems crazy how cheap $HYG options May be first time I actually looked at the IV30, it is 5.1% lmao
Judges Question Kalshi's Roulette Betting; CFTC Likely Blocks It
Federal judges push Kalshi lawyers on what would stop them from offering event contracts on the outcome of a roulette wheel; Kalshi says the CFTC likely wouldn't allow it, without giving an explanation why
Chinese Stocks Offer Undervalued Upside, Says Strategist
🇨🇳📈 Are investors underestimating the potential upside in Chinese equities? @LizThomasStrat dives into the risk/reward setup on MRKT Call https://t.co/hKMhhCNpDm
Judge Questions Financial Impact of Yankees‑Red Sox Game
"Would the Yankees beating the Red Sox have a potential financial consequence?" asks a judge in today's Kalshi hearing; Kalshi lawyers argue that the outcome of every game impacts team valuations, and that Kalshi users are hedging sports-related outcome financial...
Self‑run Trading Delivers 300% Gains, 100k Weeks
The numbers hit very differently when you have a 7 figure portfolio and actually know how to trade The Black List trades and strike prices and expiration dates has always been curated by me and me alone I didn’t have an assistants/admins...
Time Decay Can Yield 18% Return in Two Months
This Trade Made 18% in 2 Months (How Time Decay Affects Your Options Trades) #optionstrader #tradingstrategy #tradingeducation #stockmarket
Identify Market Mode with VWAP Before Trading
Range day 📉 — inside VWAP bands, rotation, fade the extremes. VWAP is the magnet. Trend day 🚀 — outside the bands, price discovery. Don’t fade. Wait for the pullback, enter with strength. Same chart. Different playbook. Most traders lose because they mix...
Option Sellers: Compare VRP Levels Starting with HYG
Moontower this morning I hope is extremely useful and educational to option enjoyyyers, especially sellers A devilish question for option sellers: Which VRP is higher? We start with $HYG is our launchpoint. https://t.co/Exoujfh7W8
Missing ES Trade Highlights Need for Better Monitoring
I gotta start looking at ES for trades more because had I been paying attention I would've taken that buy 😫.
Negative BTC Funding, Puts Surge, Yet Uptrend Expected
Funding rate is negative on $BTC. Most options traders are in puts. There have been some occasions where this has happened. Most of the time, this was at the bottom of the markets. In 80%+ of the events, markets trended up afterward, causing...
Record $15bn Day, $4bn Delta in 15 Minutes
$4bn of +delta in 15 mins is, again, insane. This after a record of *$15bn for the whole day* https://t.co/LOJZGH9F5U
Stocks Trend, Volatility Mean‑reverts Faster than Ever
There's a lot about the market that we don't know, especially about the future. So we like to focus on the few things we do know. Stock prices trend. They're actually not random. Volatility mean reverts. And it's been doing...
CFTC Chair Remains Vague on Rejected Prediction
During a Congressional hearing today, CFTC Chair Michael Selig does not specify if the organization has rejected any prediction market event contracts proposed by operators
Brent Futures Rebound After $10 Drop, Still $20 Below May
Brent crude [June] futures prices—and prompt timespreads—are perking back up again this morning after sliding ~$10/bbl through the beginning of the week. Still currently down $20/bbl from where the Brent May contract settled. https://t.co/9Iv78anu65
CEO Warns Market Underestimates Oil’s Future Price
As we mostly focus on the front month futures contract and we await the finality to the war and a full reopening of the Strait, I will mention the December contract which stands at about $76.50 as of this writing,...
Positive Gamma Exposure Keeps SPY Near $700
Gamma exposure update for $SPY: There's still a ton of positive exposure around spot, and $700 is still the MVC. I am expecting some chop around $700 today. I am not interested in downside. Will see how things change in...
High Call Volume Signals Imminent Market Correction
Im looking for a correction now based on the extreme call volumes & stock up + vol up into an OPEX. GL.
Tesla Call Volume Hits 5th‑Highest Ever at 3.95M
yesterday was the 5th highest TSLA call volume ever. 3.95mm contracts #1 was 4.86mm on election night 11/8/24
Mean Reversion Strategies Outperform SPY, Up Over 40% Since Inception
Mean reversion (MR) for subs. Since inception: -#ES_F bonus MR +44.7% (May 21, 2025) YTD +15.7% -Bonus MR+momentum: +3.5% (October 9, 2025. YTD +3.4% -Main MR strategy: +38% (June 27, 2023) YTD +5.2% - $SPY YTD +2.9% Link in profile (Daily mean reversion signals) 🔽...
Volatility Mean-Reverts Faster than Ever Before
We know that volatility mean reverts, but the difference is that we're now seeing this process happening faster than ever https://t.co/CvF1jnIYd0
Option Volume Jumps 17% as Calls Outpace Puts
From @Cboe: Wednesday's option volume of 79.1M contracts was 17% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 13 to 8. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30-day IV was higher for 298 and lower for 157.
Corn's Tight Range Signals Potential April‑May Price Peak
Range-Bound Ags Ripe to Move - Is Up Sustainable? The agriculture sector may be guided by corn -- its most significant commodity -- which hasn't ended a quarter outside a per-bushel range of about $4-$5 since 2Q23. That managed money (hedge...
SPX Futures Up 6
$spx futures +6. Make sure to trim and trail on Day#12 to book some gains if ur active
Implied Moves Reveal Today's Earnings Winners and Losers
This is the implied move for the stocks of today's reporting companies: $TSM $PEP $ABT $SCHW $PLD $BK $TRV $USB $CFG $MRSH $NFLX $AA $FNB $CNS $SFNC $INDB $LAKE https://t.co/PVJ72KjMaD
S&P 500 Options Hit Record $15B Positive Delta
S&P500 options registered +$15 billion positive delta today. Highest I've ever seen. That is nuts. https://t.co/gAFHpty8kz
Market Rally Fueled by Call/Put Oversold Reversal
One support behind the market’s surge last week was the reversal in sentiment from an oversold extreme, at least as judged by the call/put ratio. That ratio is still negative. https://t.co/i43C3jXDt6
AI Agents Can Craft Precise Bitcoin Options for Political Outcomes
.@itseneff: 'If you think Bitcoin hits 76–80K if Trump does X, but crashes to 50K if he doesn't — AI agents can translate that into the exact right options structure.' The most concrete AI + DeFi argument I've come across....
Extracting R Beats Imposing It for Consistent Volatilities
Put that thread in the Louvre. The disconnect comes from whether you impose r or extract it from synthetic If you impose it you often get different call and put vols but if you try to arb it you learn...
Nasdaq Options Cheap as Volatility Drops Ahead of Earnings
📈 Nasdaq options are cheap. The market just doesn't know it yet... Vol is on the decline right as earnings season heats up. $NDX $VXN https://t.co/fV5qBDe52C
Friday OPEX May Disrupt Options Amid Market Rebound
While the market has rebounded from recent lows, Friday's monthly OPEX could shake up options positioning — delivering a meaningful impact to the broader market. Get the full breakdown with SpotGamma, live at 1pm ET today: https://t.co/nDCjAQLXcO
SPY Climbs, VIX Falls, yet VIXY Rises—Who's
Just one day and it's not over - $SPY up ✅ $VIX down ✅ but VIXY up ❌ Which one of you is buying VIX futures?? 🤔 https://t.co/h1DXe2Bnxh
Option-Based ETFs Evolve: Insights From ISSB & ISBG
Moontower today is a change of pace...I reviewed 2 option-based ETFs, ISSB and ISBG, which are sub-advised by Convexitas. https://t.co/8FQPV4kgUm I learned a lot about ETFs writing this especially since there have been big changes the last few years vs when...
NVMI Sees Massive ITM Call Buying, Bullish Surge
Nova Measuring (NVMI) strong Semi Equipment name sees massive trade buy 1400 August $490 ITM calls as April $420 adjust a winner from 2/18 that is +50%