Options & Derivatives Social Media and Updates
Options & Derivatives Social Media and Updates
Options & Derivatives Pulse
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Big Picture View: From December to this week, #ES_F was in a range with 6765 support. This week, it failed, and we sold. Bears control until it recovers Plan next week: 6640 must reclaim to see 6704, 6758-65. 6588 must hold on dips (or quick trap below). Sell 6520, 6440 below 88
Honored to be on with @JermalChandler and @TraderMikeyB to discuss $VIX $GLD skew why #Iran is about #China https://t.co/N4yZ7QkrnI
Reality: most of these post-pandemic "Retail Investor" bulls just play a levered (fully loaded with options) game chasing the same stocks Despite the "get out" $NVDA Signal we issued this week, look at how many WEEKLY $NVDA $185 Calls traded...
How big is the market fear factor? The 4 charts on the left show what's going on in spot markets. The 4 on the right show options markets. Compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine 4 years ago, we're now at...
As war escalates, markets look complacent. The S&P 500 is barely down and USD is up only a bit. But hedging activity in options markets is picking up a lot. That's most pronounced for oil (top left), but it's also...
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
I went over this with clients already: rate volatility is just starting… “If 80 then 100” is what I said about MOVE and it’s got lots of room to move higher. Higher oil = higher yields
🌽HOLY. CORN. BUYING. Money managers in the week ended March 10 bought more than 140,000 CBOT corn futures & options contracts (the fourth most for any week on record). The resulting net long - 193,271 contracts - isn't even halfway to the...
Yesterday's post on CL time spreads combined with this image of USO which has time spreads on the same underlying regardless of maturity (CL1) creates a fascinating circle to square. Anyone running the SEC/CFTC jurisdiction RV desk knows the fun...
Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...
Boolish Silver folks watching May Futures drop $3 and getting close to sub $80. If folks really really wanted more physical, they should have stayed long March Futures, the open interest is a measly 875 contracts vs 77,604 in May (FYI...
$MU entry on puts @IUTraders and game plan -- sometimes you just have to ask ... 😎 https://t.co/aetAdrJh6S
Beta of SPX to 1pt chg in the VIX has fallen to uncomfortable levels. Opposite in many ways to Volmaggedon where VIX was at depressed levels, but SPX showing almost no response to implied vol changes. https://t.co/zaPe03rueo
$ADBE "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 13 Expiry 275/280 Call Spread ($2.85) and sell the March 13 Expiry 255 Put for 30 cents.' a bust, call spread will expire. Will need to roll puts down and out.
$VIX near 28. Not panic. Not calm. The worst place to be — the uncomfortable middle. Panic capitulates. Calm is stable. The middle is where real damage gets done slowly. Watch this number. https://t.co/hPhtbG45FE
Again with Friday the 13th! And no love in the vol complex as we head into the weekend. https://t.co/x0OcW7xE6R https://t.co/eLS7V3zlfE
One last comment on $STRC as I am bored of the whole thing and happy just owning long $IBIT Over the next year you could own STRC and get 11.5% yield. Or Go long IBIT and short ATM call and collect...
Curious ? Inflation swap traders. Do you do partial arbitrage on inflation swaps using long dated oil contracts? For instance if receiving inflation do you sell CLM6 and buy CLM7 given that 8-20% of the cpi basket is...
Here's a post on the basics of vertical spreads. I'll publish a more advanced one in X Articles for Friday the 13th. https://t.co/MEeZsvbmyb
Not for nothing but any other time in say the last 8 years of Fintwit the current broadening $ES_F chart would have hundreds of 07-08 analogs on it.
Silver: The truth about recent Deliveries........ only talking COMEX Guys are posting Bullish comments here regarding Silver deliveries, and folks wanting to take position of the Metal. I wonder if they understand the longs are not in control of the delivery...
Earnings lottos 3/12/26 Adobe $290 Calls 255 Puts RBRK $63 Calls $48 Puts ULTA $682 Calls 597.5 Puts I don’t love em but let’s see what we got
"You absolutely need index derivatives. Doing things token by token is not a good way for markets to evolve." @baehr https://t.co/KrlOhykve7
"Perps are a brilliant innovation and they've proven themselves successful, but not extremely compatible with how Americans tend to trade." https://t.co/KrlOhykve7
This chart, which has been doing the rounds, shows one of the most hedged equity markets in years. That usually means fear is already priced in, and the risk asymmetry increasingly favors upside surprises rather than further panic selling. This chart...
Methanex (MEOH) up over 9% now with buyers 2850 April $65 calls $2.10 to $2.45 The research works .. https://t.co/MV0sW89wl4
Someone has opened a $8,390,000 Oil short position today on Hyperliquid. Liquidation price: $147.94. https://t.co/LxECXDypMz
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Jane Street, AQR, Ren Tech... All use volatility. Retail was locked out... until now. A 327 page PDF was just released. For free:
Mosaic (MOS) 9100 April $37.5 calls buy 1.05 as these names keep going The power of industry-wide flow trends
$USO leads everything today in IV30 rise, +15%, the exact opposite of what we want to see
Those who smoke brisket can relate. In big move days the move happens rapidly till about now. Then the combination of 0DTE and leveraged ETF rebalance flows causes a 4 hour stall. Wrap the meat. Leave...
Wow. The cost for protection is nearly off the charts. Feels extreme given S&P 500 is about 4% from new ATHs. Nice one from @MacroCharts
Gamma exposure for the combined $SPX + $SPY view shows mostly negative exposure under spot. $6700 is a key support level; if it breaks, we could see a move towards $6650 pretty quickly. The range we are currently in is...
Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb
The futures/spot ratio for #BTC on Binance is rising rapidly. According to data from CryptoQuant, traders are once again piling into leveraged positions, hoping to become fabulously wealthy. https://t.co/XQeEiRuPWB
ISOs are attractive because, under the right conditions, gains from their exercise and sale can qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. However, to receive this preferential tax treatment, employees must wait to sell the employer stock until at least one...
Futures are struggling with the WTD AVWAP, a break of the overnight lows could be troublesome $ES_F $NQ_F https://t.co/pQGwLxlyHR
If you thought commodities were fun with the retail crowd, just wait until they dive into puts.
#Corn story seems to be getting more and more bullish and the #soybean story seems to be getting much more negative. This isn't a production issue for soybeans such as hot and dry weather cutting the crop. The...
At-the-money implied vol ($VOLI) normally trades at a premium to tail hedge ($TDEX). Makes sense. Both are elevated for obvious reasons. Folks agitated about the Middle East. This chart needs to repair itself before spooz can resume their cruise. @Nations_Indexes...
SHFE #Silver Tide Turns 🌊 🚨The Shanghai Futures Exchange just recorded its largest single-day inflow in two and a half months
How come the India VIX below is lower than it was during the Russia-Ukraine crisis? The US Vix is also lower than last year's wars and the Tariff announcements. Either we have not discounted the real extent of what has...
Opened a 23900..23800 bull put spread on Nifty (17 Mar expiry). >> Sold 23900 PE @ 304.75 >> Bought 23800 PE @ 231.85 (hedge) Net credit 👉 ₹72.9 View is simple: Nifty should expire at/above 23900....Structure wise this means I'm short gamma near 23900,...
holy shit, @perplexity_ai computer build an options screener with AI built in for my parents in 35 minutes
How the hell was $SVIX (short vol) up 4.5% today with equities mostly in the red?? Someone was selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/oyCW72pqSw
Traders suffer losses on options after U-turn in ECB rate bets https://t.co/IOlxq962Fs via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/EsJzYFwmea
5 Months ago....and seeing it play out well with OWL puts and plenty of other exposed names
It seems like everyone and their brother is aware of the record levels of put skew and hedging in the market by now. I wonder what magnitude of a tail event is required to break that loose? Is there a level...
WTI crude oil remains well off its intraday high from Monday, but implied volatility - from the $OVX - continues to climb to fresh 6-year highs... https://t.co/VDf2X5NDWk
