Options & Derivatives Social Media and Updates
Options & Derivatives Social Media and Updates
Options & Derivatives Pulse
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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Natural Gas $3 or $5 Near Year-End? Risks Appear to Lean Lower - The second consecutive colder-than-normal winter pushed the front US natural gas future to a high of $7.83 per MMBtus in January, and the price near $3 on March 17 may suggest it was a lasting peak. This year's stretch reached the highest since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the aftermath may be similar -- the 2023 low was $1.95. What's different? Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/7eVD3zbjT8 {BI COMD} #naturalgas #energy @markets
COLUMN: The US shouldn't try to influence energy prices by intervening in the financial market for oil. "... The oil futures and options market isn’t a casino where the US government can self-appoint itself as the house that always wins..." @Opinion...
Unlike a convert which sells a warrant at a relatively fair implied volatility and monetizes that vol for the benefit of existing shareholder. This atrocious deal sold the warrant at a massive massive discount to fair implied volatility and...
Great Gamma chart and Fed Day point by Captain Craig @t1alpha "In that context, any outsized reaction around the Fed should first be viewed through the lens of positioning first rather than taken at face value" https://t.co/cnuGZLnhYJ
If you heat with oil you are exposed to sky-high heating oil prices. US heating oil futures are near $4 per gallon and prices have almost doubled since February, driven by escalating disruption linked to the war in Iran and...
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
Call positioning continues across the full spectrum of Biofuel names w/ gasoline prices sky high and 45Z tax credits in focus ADM BG DAR FF GPRE ANDE Could see junky plays GEVO AMTX run as well
In the last 2 hours we only had 2 candles greater than 20 points in NQ that basically means that we only 10bps moves just 1.6% of the time this afternoon. These are the days that try scalpers souls https://t.co/UBos7R9C8l
RBOB gasoline futures $3.12 - that's very close to the spike high Sunday night last week https://t.co/x2eJ04zPio
Oil futures having a hard time rising much in anticipation of the scarcity barreling down toward us all when—as we saw last week—jawboning can dump prices by $10 and blow folks out We'll need physical markets to drag paper barrels to...
$USO There's a lot going on behind the CL chart, lots of inflationary stuff we will see as the year goes on https://t.co/QQRYWzhzi2
Friday's OPEX has $1.2 trillion in delta notional set to expire. Given highly elevated vols, this expiration could be highly impactful. Don't miss our March OPEX analysis at 1pm ET tomorrow: https://t.co/55HHarmCC7
Vol through the lens of @CBOE vol indices: better than 3/6; not as good as 2/27; pesky 9-day VIX refusing to cooperate. https://t.co/isod6NdR6y
And for what it’s worth I just think the bull spreads are (sn/sx) just shaking the trees right now. I expect new highs in that spread at some point. Not a recommendation and there is a risk of loss in...
$DOCU "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 47.50/48 Call Spread (95 cents) and sell the March 41.50 Put for 30 cents." sell to close call spread on any weakness, puts expire.
📺 RANGE COMPRESSION IN $NVDA, EARNINGS RISK IN $MU $NVDA raised its AI outlook to roughly $1 trillion in demand/revenue visibility through 2027, effectively doubling prior expectations and reinforcing the long-term AI bull case. Despite that, Nvidia is still range-bound and struggling...
Day 8 running my automated trading strategy on Micro Nasdaq futures (MNQ). Two clean trades. Market was choppy, so position size was reduced to 2 MNQ contracts to control risk and stay consistent. Same rule based execution. Same entry confirmation. No overtrading. Adjusting position size based...
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...
Now build out a 6 month +-7% range, take Ethereum down 50%, kill the high beta trash, bomb Iran again but this time close the Strait of Hormuz, and then rally $ES_F twice in a row off the 200 dma....
$VIX had to come down with a 1% gain in $SPX. 3.7 points is a big drop for a 1% change, but we've been over-vixxing for a while now, as shown in the second chart. https://t.co/OV1trbLQxV
More and more traders are looking to express a view on the weekends — with crypto. But perps function more like options than futures for retail traders, and that distinction matters more than most realize when leverage is on the...
$30M Call Spike on $NVDA after NVDA ceo says he expects revenue to surpass $1 trillion by 2027. 👇
Notable FX options expiring tomorrow: 1.6 bln euros at $1.15 $720 mln at JPY158.40 A$430 mln at $0.7100 and A$485 at $0.7045 $685 mln at BRL5.20 $550 mln at CAD1.3645
Yes, this is why boatloads of $NVDA puts were sold to open this morning And yes, all the other options flow sites thought they bought https://t.co/6AWLqSDvRH
Most traders blame their entries, indicators, or strategy. But the truth is… You lose before the trade even starts. Markets operate like an auction. Once you understand: • Price rotation • Value areas • Market structure Tools like VWAP and Volume Profile finally make sense. Comment “I’m in” and...
1-month realized vol is still above 3-month realized vol. That keeps the market in a high-volatility regime, which forces vol-control funds to reduce equity exposure as volatility rises. If 1M realized vol drops back below 3M realized vol, systematic strategies will be...
📉CBOT May soybeans have plunged the daily 70-cent trading limit after weekend U.S.-China talks - touted as successful - were viewed unfavorably (possible Trump-Xi meeting delay, mention of non-soybean row crop purchases). CBOT May bean oil was also limit down....
bought to close the $NVDA Mar 165 puts (was a roll from a workout of strangle sales for earnings)
May Beans: largest daily down bar for May contract. note: Momentum sell div at the top, 3 bar triangle, then range expansion today on downside breakout. Despite news left and right, market technicals remain consistent...
Treasury (TLT) early big buying June $84 calls 7000X for $3M, need to see Bonds hold up for stocks to stabilize
The bid for tail hedges could be seen in mid-Feb and peaked for now on 3/6. Meanwhile, ATM IV (VOLI) remains elevated. Big week with VIXperation on Weds and quarterly OpEx on Friday. Relax at your own risk. https://t.co/BdigWM05b0
$ES_F $NQ_F Green is the YTD low day VWAP / red is last wk high anchor = overhead levels of interest ES and NQ purple = new WTD anchor Both are below decl 5sma (not shown) https://t.co/ZoZZ8cTXK0
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
Peeps seem to be trading oil like an abstract future and not something that physically settles
It *could* be a big week for a vanna driven rally into the 6,800s. Note here how VIX spread to SPX movement (RV) often contracts around VIX exp, which is this Wed. We've unlocked the AM Founder's Note to explain our...
CLZ26 price of 75 is the expected forward spot price of oil for December delivery plus a risk premium. That risk premium is likely higher than normal (Z26 is cheaper than normal) due to the high incentive for those...
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 159 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 10. Fund...
Silver Futures: Down >$3.5 to the $77 handle. I feel like the lone or one of the few folks who have remained negative on higher prices (for now) based on a few different factors.
Historically, #BTC has filled its CME gap in 95% of cases. Will it close it this time? https://t.co/XkCluFm0gV
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
The Option That Turned ₹1 Lakh Into ₹6 Crore 💸💸💸 On 26 Feb, MCX Crude Oil 9000 CE was sitting around ₹125–₹150.💡 Nobody touched it. Too far. Too boring. Then came the strikes on Iran, crude shot past ₹10,000.🔥 That same ignored option jumped...
Hedge funds are worried. Stat arb is now available to the masses. Some guy just published the most in-depth pairs trading strategy I've ever seen. 100% free
Someone opened a $11,402,000 Oil long position yesterday. If Oil drops to $88.4, he will be fully liquidated. https://t.co/7YNdGzV93U
"Implied vol in oil options is above 100% (1m, ATM), climbing above levels seen at the peak during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and comparable to those during the pandemic lockdown panic" --DB
Bearish hedge fund positioning is extreme: Shorts in US-listed ETFs +10% Thursday—2nd-biggest daily jump since 2016 (only topped by +16% on April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day”). ETF shorts +12% this week (after +8% last), +23% in last month. US macro shorts (incl. index...
Most traders only trade Nasdaq or gold. But markets like Dow Jones, Russell, crude oil, and natural gas often move with cleaner trends. The futures ticker you trade, the volatility, and your position size all impact your results. Using micro futures and choosing...
One last pump...this came out yesterday. Dean and I talk oil, options, and some handy tricks for understanding a vol surface with a glance
Black-Scholes starts to break down when a stock stops trading on continuous volatility and starts trading on a mispriced discrete corporate event. In special situations, the edge is rarely in sigma. It’s in underwriting the probability-weighted outcome better than the...
Part 2 of "building an options chain in your head" which way too many of you nerds enjoyed
WTI futures price rose $7.81 (9%) from $90.90 to $98.71 week ending March 13 Higher price movement is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/qQdFuuupRU
