Options & Derivatives Social Media and Updates
Options & Derivatives Social Media and Updates
Options & Derivatives Pulse
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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Copper is increasingly trading like a macro hedge, raising volatility far beyond what near-term fundamentals imply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/copper-as-macro-hedge-is-rewriting.html
Goldman>The gap between dated Brent-the cornerstone of the global physical oil market and the reference point for many crude purchases by global refineries-and the near-dated Brent futures-which shifted from the May to the June contract...
🔹Be careful: the forward curve is not a forecast. It has rarely matched actual realized prices. For example, if you assume the December 2026 futures price reflects where the market will actually be at that time, you’re to be...
Brent crude oil futures looking out a few months and beyond are down sharply in the past week @augurinfinity https://t.co/0xHk81TJYg https://t.co/VVmceseKBH
Kodiak (KOD) holding recent gap move well sees sneaky buy late for 350 Sep. $45 calls 8.50 to 9.00
This is the first long weekend where S&P500 futures will trade 24/7/365 on a decentralized exchange.
Australia (EWA) rare large action seeing a big IV surge with 15,000 July $29 puts bought $2.13 to $2.40 today, a country exposed to a China slowdown, stronger USD and RBA tightening
Mixed day for my portfolio where I added $TSLL, $META and $HIMS for $685 in option income. Did you do anything in the markets today?
It's early lol...but if told me Crude would be up 11% would think ES_F be down 2%, not 0.2%...progress
VFS quietly on an insane run last few weeks, 6K May 5 calls buying today
Prompt WTI timespreads today hit a record high of $15/bbl If you've currently got a barrel of physical WTI-deliverable crude in the Cushing area, you can *rent* said barrel to the market for the next two and a half weeks and...
Q: if you buy short-dated calls after sharp sell offs and buy short-dated puts after rips, are you effectively long or short vol? Asking for a friend :-)
$40 appears to be the level big money is comfy buying the dog $NKE (minus the premium raised via the put sales)
CHART OF THE DAY: The extreme backwardation in WTI oil futures, and the impact on (lack of) hedging opportunities for US shale for 2027-28. While the front of the curve has exploded (+$44 a barrel), the back (24 months out...
This is a tough call... My manual process says these are sold to open Hawk Algo logic which has been refined many times says bought, so think will need to tweak more Alternative pricing methods are mixed https://t.co/fkZFK0A8Dn
Look at that backwardation...prompt spread (difference between the front-month oil futures contract and the subsequent contract) blowing out to records https://t.co/KBfkkpr9IC
Seems noteworthy that median daily call volumes traded across US exchanges peaked in October along with: $QQQ, $NVDA, Quantum computing stocks ($QBTS, $IONQ, $RGTI), $PLTR (a couple days into November, but still), and Goldman Sachs’ “retail favorites” index. https://t.co/oPZuFod0Gx
Maintenance based lending is the first true defi evolution after LTV based lending. Enables an entirely new suite of hedged strategies that can move from active management to passive management. Less stress for borrowers, better yield for depositors. Many new features...
The equity vol is still asleep relative to the oil move. The 0DTE SPX straddle is just $55 (85 bps). Futures are down 1.5% overnight. Something ain't right. https://t.co/kmBuM66ebE
In today's Early Look: "Long Energy & Pump Puts" While the Tourist crowd was busy chasing $SPY and $QQQ to lower-highs yesterday, the fractal was telling a different story. That's why I opted to buy Oil/Energy and introduce what I'm calling...
Heading into the speech last night, our Signaling Process said Buy Pump Puts and Buy Oil #timestamped https://t.co/nyETDd8H3G
Gold's Volatility didn't leave the F-Bucket either - there was plenty of time to get out and/or reduce your position https://t.co/0tctCT4A1x
Buying Russell $IWM Pump Puts was an obvious play with Russell Volatility (RVX) in the F-Bucket https://t.co/IQnqgOdKmH
Now we know MAG has hedged their jet fuel between US$60-US$80 per barrel for 2026. With the price of jet fuel going up 140% one can only wonder what is happening to airlines that didn’t hedge their jet fuel. Do...
This seems like a good opportunity for futures data, I have no details beyond what @stocktwits has shared so please dont ask me any questions about it https://t.co/eqqoBaCQZg
Based on closing SPX positions, it looks like 6,650 is best case upside for tomorrow. Downside open to 6,400. GL https://t.co/o3MdAytDAn
Credit-derivative trading volumes have surged to record highs. The OG prediction markets @markets via @augurinfinity https://t.co/hAxDHk0zOC https://t.co/9es8129em1
Interesting FX Option Expirations Tomorrow 1.4 bln euros at $1.1650 $1.7 bln JPY159 and $1.5 bln at JPY160 A$1.14 bln at $0.6900.
The spread is waking up again Renewed widening in the contango between #SHFE Silver Futures and #SGE
Directional (bullish) Mar. 2027 short straddles been an interesting new strategy to emerge in several key names the past week into the correction
State of the Portable Alpha Landscape I sit down with Shane McCarthy of LAB Quantitative Strategies for a deep dive into the portable alpha and return stacking landscape, including fresh survey data on how allocators are approaching this space today. 00:00 Welcome...
This is turning out to be a very disappointing day for the bears in the #soybeans. Bull spreads have even turned.
Near dated $IWM puts are way too cheap given my view of the probability distribution of outcomes over the next week. At a minimum you can probably monetize them tomorrow into pre-weekend hedging if you don't want to own them...
Quarter way of $100,000 in lifetime option earnings. This year has been slower in option income due to some assignments. But we live and we learn everyday. Top 3 income tickers: 1. $SOXL - $2703 2. $HIMZ - $2360 3. $OSCR -...
watch the options activity ahead of this to see how they think they can manipulate us and our markets
When looking at the oil market: Brent **June** futures (settled at the end of April): That's trading at ~$102 a barrel. But physical Brent market for prompt delivery: That's trading at ~$125 a barrel. There's a big difference depending on when a refinery needs...
Rbi saw that banks moved their positions to corporates or perhaps related parties and have said: Banks can't offer ndf rupee contracts to anyone If you close a contract from now, no rebooking, even if it's a deliverables contract. Banks can't deal...
Oil (USO) interesting trade September 2027 as the $140/$135/$115/$110 Iron Condor trades 1000X expecting a 115-135 longer-term range to hold
$MO ugly with some news this morning and had those Apr. puts bought 5000X other day https://t.co/ChO9ndG1S1
my S&P 500 $SPX vs. volatility $VIX model fired another buy signal for equities yesterday as it settled... https://t.co/3FNpIhBqkB
The big drop you see in Brent crude prices overnight is primarily the prompt (ie front-month) contract roll from May to June May Brent crude contract expired at >$118 June currently [somehow??] trading at $101 So relieved to hear this will be entirely...
Hormuz Closure, December Futures Signal Post-Inflation Deflation - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz might have already triggered a global recession, with lose-lose implications for most risk assets and commodities -- particularly crude oil. Rolling to front-month just before...
This is downright freaky. From Feb '25 - Mar 31, the SPX was down 9%, & closed on the JPM 5,565 Put on 3/31 Then came April 2nd "Liberation Day". The SPX subsequently dropped 10% 2026: SPX -6% from Feb, rallying to...
Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation - January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Full report on...
Positions are super light. Alpha up 6.5% YTD 2% of AUM in SPX Puts bought on yesterday close A boatload of STIR bought higher but exposed to rate cuts and recovering That's it Beta up 5% YTD cuz own gold and commodities as...
Brent futures are beginning to reflect physical reality $118. 35 closing price was only $0.68 less than peak Ukraine in late March 2022 Much steeper backwardation now https://t.co/N03VvzUcs3
If yesterday's rip-roaring rally wasn't enough and you were not entertained, then----- Tonight, Trump addresses the nation on Iran. Here are the scenarios, what I'd assign to each, and how futures likely react:
Thinking you have deployable cash is a risky mistake that leads to surprise margin calls for many options traders. @Tradesviz Options Command Center instantly reveals your true liquidity, exposes hidden concentration risk in your Capital Reserved breakdown, and shows exactly when...
Might not feel like it now, but the first two months of this year were literally one of the least volatile in history. In terms of the range, it was indeed the smallest range EVER. To see a bigger move in...
In special situations, process is the only variable you control. Make sure your legal rights get as much exercise as an ITM call.
