Trend Following and Indexing Share Same Drawdown Reality
These types of comments always amuse me... "...trend following strategies typically have long flat or negative periods that test discipline. Past profitability doesn't protect you from a multi-year drawdown." So let's consider Buy & Hold or indexing between 1968 - 1982 where the CAGR was 1%, or between 2000 - 2010 where, again, the CAGR was 1%. In both periods drawdowns exceeded 40% One can argue that indexing "typically has long flat or negative periods that test discipline. Past profitability doesn't protect you from a multi-year drawdown" Bottom Line: Same, same. #Confirmationbias.
AIM Shares Hold Sideways, Bullish EMAs Tight, RSI Moderate
#AIM All Share Doji Candle and Sideways 4 weeks. Support 796, 775, 746. Resistance 837. RSI 61.5 not high. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish but Lines tight. Top Bollinger Band 822. Midpoint Line 814. Bottom Band 807.
FTSE100 Slides From ATH Amid Overbought Signals
#FTSE100 Down Candle off ATH. Support 10554, 10232, 10000. RSI 80 still crazy Overbought. Top Bollinger Band 10928. Midpoint Line 10722. Bottom Band 10522.
Bitcoin Bottomed Gold; Bullish Divergence Signals Rotation
It becomes more clear. $BTC vs. Gold has hit it's bottom. The simple reason for that is a technical one. Has nothing to do with any of the geopolitical situations. Just technical. There's a strong bullish divergence on the daily and weekly timeframes. And...
DAX Gaps Down Yet EMAs Signal Bullish Momentum
#DAX Gap down and Long Tails Doji but still in bigger Sideways Range. Support 24272, 23924, 23433, 23277. RSI 47.5 bit off Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bullish. Closed outside Bottom Bollinger Band 24716. Midpoint Line 25095. Top Band 25478.
SPX May Slip Below 100‑Day MA, Target 6720
$SPX keeps defending its 100 day MA on a closing basis, though I think it's likely to close below it by the end of the week. When it closes below the 100 DMA the next downside target will be the...
Follow Price, Ignore Noise, Trust What You See
No one knows what is next for the market. Having a bias and predicting only keep your eyes from seeing price and market participants actions. Follow price. Ignore the noise. Trade your plan and Use your...
Upcoming S&P 500 Rebalance Highlights Top Eligible Stocks
Last week we looked at names that might be added in this month's S&P 500 rebalance. The announcement will come after Friday's close. Here are some of the top eligible names and their projected weights as of last week and...
REITs Surge as Bonds
Homebuilders taken down, but REITs up US stocks +0.1% ex-US -1.7% $IBIT and $USO up big with the worst day for bonds in 3 months. $AGG https://t.co/Q5GdXN7VqF
Berkshire Drops 4.9% as NVDA, MSFT Climb
Berkshire flew under the radar with a 4.9% plunge following Saturday earnings @finviz_com $NVDA $MSFT up https://t.co/cmpuoSoxNM
USO Posts Third-Best Day Since 2022, Hits Multi
$USO 3rd-best day since March 2022... multi-year high close... remember when everyone hated this ETF? More from me on @stockcharts: https://t.co/2c4CuouCWe https://t.co/r8CEDMAgDm
Trade Against Crowd, Wait for Strong Risk‑Reward Setup
This is what trading against the crowd using behavior and sorta simple TA looks like I'd add to this the low in oil came as Silver was topping out too but more importantly is you can't predict the future vs waiting...
Bought TSLA on Dip, Awaiting VWAP Confirmation
bought $TSLA off this move lower here and a confirmation hold off #VWAP @alphatrends https://t.co/d73VEsbKau
Crude Drilling Targets Long‑running Pivot, Pressure Rises
Crude drilling into a pivot that’s been in play since 2006. Pressure builds here. $USO $USOIL $OIL $XLE $XOP $OIH https://t.co/g5XbBkgmCd
Iran Commander Declares Hormuz Closed, Threatens Passing Vessels
Iran commander says Strait of Hormuz closed, vows to hit ships trying to pass, report says: CNBC $USO $XLE
Oil Surges 8‑9% as Gasoline Climbs, Yields Steady
Oil jumping to 8-9% gains this afternoon.. gasoline futures up 12 cents. US stocks ~unch with the 10yr 3bps off the HoD.. now near 4.04% https://t.co/XkTx1P5k8G
AOR 60/40 ETF Drops, Sparking Boomer Backlash
60/40 ETF getting slapped around today, though.. $AOR -0.55%.. boomers will be up in arms https://t.co/VDifb3Gz9N
Low‑time‑frame Trades Give Faster Feedback, Easier Shorts
Another easy obvious intra-day set up. Short this time. I guess we just have stick to LTFs until higher time frames stop the chop. So much more effort though. https://t.co/0q6pV4w2WR
Long Oil, Short US Consumer: BNO Up, XLY Down
We remain long of Oil in $BNO terms and short of the US Consumer via $XLY https://t.co/wvSfyWS2xT
ONDS Rebounds,
$ONDS went backward on it once and put in no green to red stop once green. I made a little on it and at this moment in time I don't have shares. Name is back on watch
Questioning the Assumed Decline of Oil & Gas
NEW POST: Are We Sure Oil & Gas Are Fades? https://t.co/a8CQaFm6L7 $UGA $USO $QQQ $SPY $TLT
Peace Returns to VIX Complex Despite Middle East Turmoil
The Middle East may still be in turmoil, but peace has returned to the VIX complex. https://t.co/rNDEVVnd18
Speed Training for 1‑second Chart Trading at Max Leverage
This is me speed training so I can trade 1 second charts on max leverage. https://t.co/oxgyoTEcDX
V Hits 21‑day MA, Five Consecutive up Days
$V tapping on the 21ma daily and 5 up days since the purchase. Moving up some of the stops
Chocolate Fire Sale Nears End; Market Must Beat Friday
This might be it for the Chocolate fire sale. Market needs to close above Friday's high tomorrow. https://t.co/SL56uK8y5A
IGV Opens Low, Rallies Higher Five Sessions Straight
Five straight sessions now in software $IGV where they open it near the lows and grind it higher all day. https://t.co/RL0fGDQBeY
Bitcoin's Bearish Acceleration Follows Macro Triangle Breakdown
#BTC Bitcoin continues to tumble Across cycles, Bitcoin has never been able to avoid Bearish Acceleration on confirmed breakdown from a Macro Triangle $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin 🚀Follow @rektcapital for more level-headed insights on Bitcoin
MU Holds Low, Slightly Weaker Than SNDK
$MU is acting fine as well. Today's low should be held Slightly weaker than SNDK. https://t.co/EBuaDCznnj
Volatility and Clean Structure Simplify NQ Trading
Volatility? Good. Clean structure? Even better. 🔥 NQ gave us: ⚡ Price Discovery Continuation ⚡ VWAP Bounce ⚡ IB High Fade ⚡ Madonna (first IB touch fade… textbook) When you read balance vs imbalance correctly, the market gets simple. Grab the free guide 🌊 #vwaptrading #nqfutures #tradingeducation
200‑Week EMA Remains Bitcoin Resistance Barrier
#BTC Bitcoin has once again Weekly Closed below the 200-week EMA (black) As a result, this technically means that the 200-week EMA continues to figure as resistance For any prolonged upside from this point, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the EMA as...
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Gold, Oil, USD, Equity Outlook
Iran War, Gold, Oil, USD Majors, Equities Weekly Technical Outlook (webinar archive) https://t.co/EgPYJ8go5k Asset Chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/vxBFh5ks3e
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$TNX Monthly. Another bounce off 4% (40 on this chart) for Rates on 10-Year Note. Long-term continues multi-year narrowing triangle. https://t.co/gUtiLgqcs9
SPY Holds $675 Support, Climbs to $681.65
$spy follow up as it held $675 area and reclaimed $680 then $681.65 A few names help lead the way https://t.co/RCNnDd8R4r
NVDA's Bullish Candle Could Shield Nasdaq 100
$NVDA - The day isn't over yet, but so far we have a bullish engulfing candle off the 200 day MA. If NVDA holds above its 200 DMA for the rest of the week maybe the Nasdaq 100 will not...
Watch SNDK's Low-Volume Drift Toward 21‑EMA
$SNDK keep a close eye on this one Currently in a lower volume drift to the 21ema. https://t.co/NrX4v63gQD
Tesla Needs 21‑EMA Break to Confirm Uptrend
$TSLA strong bar off the gap down open & 200 day Still needs to get above the 21ema to be in an uptrend https://t.co/mu13xUuTIq
Apple's 65% Share Signals Boost for SWKS
Comments at MSCO conference from $SWKS CEO are perhaps a positive tell for $AAPL being that they are a 65% customer to them
Bitcoin Poised to Surge Toward $75‑80K Despite Dip
Very bearish price action on #Bitcoin today as it breaks above $65K. Flipped a crucial level for support and continued to rally. After US Open --> Gold and Silver are slightly correcting. I think that we'll see Bitcoin continue to the area of...
Markets Shrug Iran Strikes, Eye Earnings-Driven Sell‑off
Obviously the market doesn't really care about the strikes in Iran. The stock indices are barely down, silver is selling off big and crude oil is spiking, but nothing significant, it's nowhere near last June's high from the previous strike...
Spot the Hidden Great Rotation Before It Hits
Everyone’s chasing last year’s winners. The real move is under the surface. Leadership is rotating. Capital is rotating. By the time it’s obvious, it’s late. The Great Rotation is accelerating. Here’s what most investors are missing: https://t.co/Q38nu61vBB
Returning to Short SPY Calls After S&P Rally
Back Shorting SPY Calls @thestreetpro With S&P cash -9 handles (a big rally from the lows of -70 handles) I am back shorting (SPY) calls. By Doug Kass Mar 2, 2026 11:21 AM EST @guyadami @dougkass
Spot Clean Trends, Yet Embrace Messy Opportunities
Look for clean trends. But don't ignore the messy ones - they'll eventually present opportunties, too.
War‑favored
Seeing all the gap higher open war-favorite groups fade here, classic sell the news action
60+ NYSE and 21 Nasdaq Stocks Hit All‑Time Highs
Over 60 NYSE and 21 Naz making ATH today.... Summary of Stocks With New Highs & Lows - https://t.co/FERzGR60yl
From Early Short to $400 Long: Tesla Triumph
SHORT worked early here on $TSLA, flipped LONG on the break of $400 and the rest is history......🫡🤑😎 #trading #stocks @ttvresearch @traderTVLIVE https://t.co/SpMay9i78f
NVDA Shines for #630Club Watchers, Solid Software
$nvda a great trade this morning for those who watched the #630club. Software was decent also 💪
Energy Reversal and VWAP Gap Signal $INDO Setup
Both a reversal in Energy stocks in addition to a small cap gap stock losing at vwap makes $INDO a good setup. was early initially though. https://t.co/QSXGMfyHtU
Nvidia Sees $335M June $150 Call Surge, March 160 Adjusts
Nvidia (NVDA) with $335M of June $150 ITM calls bought as big March 160 position adjusts
Refinery Stock Breaks Out Amid Strong Energy Uptrend
$PSX Daily. Refinery stock popping up and out of tight falling channel in context of overall strong uptrend as energy surges. Far from extended https://t.co/Deqj2QXqRJ
Volatility Clarifies Bear Traps and Market Signals
BTU - Nice TS+1 bear trap. Notice how everything s so much more readable when there is good volatility (!) https://t.co/3dNjZ6BKre
