Oil Levels Dictate Market Peaks During Exogenous Shocks
Updated chart of our 1-variable stock market. This is how markets behave during exogenous shocks - stocks need oil to peak. Aftermath eco forecasts rarely matter. Same thing happened last year, but with trade uncertainty. Need something to the same effect as the April Trump “pause” 🤓 WTI Oil vs SP500 Future Inverted.
Metal Volatility Drives XME Off 50‑SMA, Gaps Down
Beautiful move yesterday off 50sma, gap down below it today. $XME Metal volatility never disappoints https://t.co/XWFZZ8XFWH
Software Stocks Rebound, Setting Higher Lows
Some software went green again and some of them keep making higher lows $msft $igv $now
20% Drop Could Trigger Full Market Rout
Probably 15% to 20% coming on the downside The problem is that 20% can become a complete rout https://t.co/7zx4utMhwU
Canada Stocks May Lead Upcoming Broad Market Uptrend
Canada stocks $EWC vs. U.S. stocks $SPX if this ends up being a big picture uptrend in development, you won't count me as surprised... remember, short-term trends turn first, then intermediate and then long-term... some choose to never rotate and stay...
Risk-Off Sweep: Major Indices, Crypto, and Metals Plunge
Risk is off today: S&P 500 -2.2% Bitcoin -2.2% Nasdaq 100 -2.4% R2000 -3.4% Gold -4.7% EAFE -4.9% Emerging Mkts -6.7% Silver -8.9%
Spotting NASDAQ Bottom with $TQQQ Trade
bottom snipe like here with a bottom pick on the NASDAQ here using $TQQQ 🎯🎯 $QQQ $SPY https://t.co/jAxoEQg65i
Geopolitical Shocks Trigger Short‑term Stock Drops, Not Recessions
Geopolitical risks may weigh on the outlook for stocks in the short run, with the S&P 500 now below key support at its 100-day moving average. Stocks have been transitioning leadership toward commodity-sensitive sectors and value stocks so far this...
Bond Volatility Stocks TW, MKTX Signal Market Trouble
Bond Volatility winners $TW $MKTX also always a good market hedge / indicator of trouble coming
Private Credit Mirrors 2007‑08 Troubled Financials Amid Downtrend
$OWL Daily. Clear downtrend. Weak bounces. Major issues lurking. Private credit starting to act like some problem financials in 2007/08. https://t.co/suwdNfuKKO
SVIX Plummets, May Signal Emerging Volatility Cluster
Vol gods very angry this morning. That means that $SVIX is being smashed to a level that gets it on the watch list. But it could be the first of a cluster (see March/April of last year), so be careful...
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
Preserve Capital, Tighten Stops Until Post‑conflict Rally
As always, risk management is paramount. In a market under distribution, tightening stops and prioritizing capital preservation isn’t just prudent — it’s essential. When the tape refuses to reward low-risk setups and breakouts fail to follow through, discipline becomes your greatest...
Weekly Slow Line Sinks Below Zero, Signaling Cycle Shift
posted this chart awhile ago showing cycle work (need to see the weekly "slow line" get buried below the zero line). https://t.co/5u8fVYjmle
Market Breadth Weakens as Downtrend Signals Mount
The structural makings for market downtrend have been long in the making...near record number of Hindenburg Sell signals (sometimes a dubious indicator) but speaks to the deteriorating market breadth. The surprising thing was how long the RS leaders kept...
Shorts Suffer: Gains Wiped, Rally Still Downtrend
Really hard to press shorts: one piece of good news erases days of gains in hours. And when it’s all said and done, the stock will rally 10% and still be in a downtrend. Nothing changed. Just pain
Dollar Surge Flushes Gold, Emerging Market ETFs
The rock solid complacent trends like $GLD, $EEM, and $ACWX all getting flushed today as the dollar rips another day https://t.co/f6LhWCRZLV
DAX May Face Sharp Downside Move
DAX - going to be fugly it this comes out the downside. (measured move projection possibility) https://t.co/OYKBGz8xYS
Stats Without Context Provide No Value
$SPY - Sideways price action cuts both ways... Yes - "Only XYZ % from New Highs" but also now this move puts us at new 3 month lows. People yelling stats without context are not doing analysis and analysis is the...
QQQ
after failure to reclaim 600 $QQQ in a downtrend. held pre-market support first time... https://t.co/aA27OsTKQw
Market Breadth Drops Below -2000, Rare Occurrence
Its been a long time since we saw market breadth readings worse than -2000 https://t.co/vWEmtQAlyw
Gold ETF Likely Peaked, Falling Below $500
the top is probably in for $GLD. lower high ystdy into 500. rats running for the exits today... @PeterSchiff https://t.co/ZxaxY0aB5F
Utilities Outpace S&P, Signaling Beta Rotation Bearishness
that's a mighty big surge of utilities $XLU vs. S&P 500 $SPX in the past 4-weeks (middle panel) - it's a bearish condition for the #betarotation model and if you haven't read their analysis @charliebilello @leadlagreport - i'd say you...
Sticky Upside Volatility Threatens Crowded Short‑Vol Trade
Embedded issue with markets now is whether volatility remains sticky to upside and destroys the crowded and complacent short vol trade which has been going on for years
Relative Strength Fails Spectacularly on Extreme Market Days
You can punch the "look for relative strength" people right in the face on days like today.
Implied Vol Outpaces History—Will It Converge Soon?
Implied vol is well ahead of historical vol. Is the latter about to catch up? https://t.co/n7Ii78S3oL
Historical Feb‑March Weakness Predicts Upcoming Market Slip
It is what it is, weakness in February and the early parts of March are quite common the past two decades. We've been saying expect a banana peel and we are on it. https://t.co/fTK460vLTF
S&P 500 Records Smallest Two‑Month Range—Tightness Won’t Last
Good reminder that we just had the smallest first two month range EVER for the S&P 500. Tight ranges don't last forever. https://t.co/4UYArPODOU
QQQ Gaps Down, Still Below 21‑EMA – Watch the Close
$QQQ gap below the level. We were "supposed to" see follow through higher today or a hold. A gap down is negative. Still below the 21ema. See how we close https://t.co/2PaRAvRI6S
Quasi Sklar Box Signals 5,000-Point Downside for Gold
Quasi SKlarew box suggests minimum downside of 5000 for GC. note perfect 120 "u turn" at the top. https://t.co/wHdOR1RvDF
Market Dip Matches Expectations, FTSE
This is certainly more like the whack to markets I had expected yesterday. At least I might get a good opportunity to open a GIT #FTSE100 Long at some point. :-)
Doubling Down at Lower Prices Ends in Loss
There is an old adage that comes true in every major market cycle The person who is long at 100 and says they will double up at 50 ends up selling everything at 60 Happens every time -- never fails to happen
SPY Approaches Consolidation Floor; Below 670 Triggers Market Drop
$SPY trading near the bottom of its multi-month consolidation range. A move below 670.00 could drive the entire market lower.
Capture $1 Call Spread Profit, Free Put Hedge
$BBY "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 6 Expiry 62/63 Call Spread (80 cents) and sell the March 6 Expiry 56 Put for free." puts expire, sell call spread near $1.00 or on any weakness in stock price
MDB Call Spread Busted; Roll Puts Down/Out
$MDB "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 6 Expiry 330/342.50 Call Spread ($7.40) and sell the March 6 Expiry 275 Put for a 20 cent credit." call spread a bust, will need to roll puts down and out.
Weekly Safety Checklist for New Buying Decisions
a weekly glance at our "Is It Safe for New Buying?" checklist... $TSX $QQQ $SPX $IWM https://t.co/ryem6Ua7LX
Visa, Mastercard, AmEx Slip Below Key Bearish EMAs
three credit card trends... Visa $V and Mastercard $MA have already crossed 13/34-week EMA bearish... it looks like American Express $AXP isn't far behind... https://t.co/AA0IDiYONt
S&P Hits 52‑week Highs; Equal‑weight Stays Bullish
seeing the S&P 500 $SPX % stocks at 52-week highs increase again... remember sector rotation is a healthy thing and if you're going to be negative on stocks, you'd better show me the equal-weighted index is bearish (hint: it's not)......
Wait for Model Signals Before Predicting Bear Markets
when my $SPX #DCATR model turns upward, don't worry, i'll mention it... no point on speculating on coming bear markets until the market behaviour supports it... https://t.co/myYDLhzuYP
Weak Asia, Surging Oil Drive Fast Market
Asia is weak, oil is ripping, we're in a fast market right now on The Morning Show https://t.co/jn2RN28AFk
Mean‑Reversion Update: Yesterday’s Market Performance Was Positive
Daily mean-reversion update. A relatively good day yesterday. Link in reply below 👇 $SPY $QQQ
Spot VIX Spikes, Futures in Backwardation; Expect Drop
Similar to what we saw pre-market yesterday. Spot VIX (from SPX option chain) way north of the directly tradeable VX futures. Backwardation of the futures is not a good look, but I expect spot VIX to drop once the bell...
CBOE Strength Breakouts Signal Upcoming Market Weakness
An interesting study for someone good with that kind of thing... Chart $CBOE relative strength breakouts vs. the market as an inflection point to market trends Seems CBOE showing rel. strength tends to always precede market weakness as options volumes surge
Overnight Gaps Drive Gains
Remember that chart of how most all stock gains came from overnight sessions Be funny if 2026 is the gap them down overnight, buy them up regular session market
Traders Anticipate a Volatile Day Ahead
Gm Traders, feels like we might be in for a day today, what are we thinking?
Broad Risk Asset Sell‑off Drives Double‑digit Declines
📉 KORU -31% — bearish macro ETF collapsing as risk assets sell off — Korea 📉 MDB -27% — MongoDB stock down on earnings/guide disappointment. 📉 MAIA -24% — biotech off after weak data/metrics. 📉 SGRY -24% — surgery partner stock sold post...
Small‑cap Energy and Leveraged ETFs Surge on Sector Flow
🚀 BATL +110% — energy tension rally flowing into small energy names. 🚀 PSNYW +46% — Polestar warrants surfacing on EV retail interest. 🚀 BWET +22% — small cap leveraged water tech (?) getting short-squeeze + sector rotation. 🚀 HG.CSE +22% — hydrocarbon/energy...
Crude Price Threshold Needed for S&P 500 Rally
What level does crude have to trade below for SPX to go green on the day
ZD Sells Unit to ACN for $1.2B Cash
$ZD with a $1.5B market cap sold a unit to $ACN for $1.2B cash this morning
Mid‑range Oil Could Push $10 Gas, Spark Homelessness
Crude Oil prices are at about the mid-point of a 20-year range $150 Crude is NOT NOT out of the question for 2026 With Gavin in power in California, $10 per gal gas is within sight All for homeless tents under every bridge...