Join Quanta: Well‑Funded Series A Startup Opportunity
New Job 2026 no, not for me, for *you* - just received the latest update on Quanta from Helen Hastings and it's a great time to join a well-funded Series A startup. https://lnkd.in/gBg2JV7z
Tech Predictions Nearing Reality: Progress Accelerates Yearly
For years I’ve shared predictions about how technology would reshape our world. We’re still early in that journey, but we’re getting closer every year. Here’s a look back at some of my predictions and the recent progress moving toward them:
Rethinking 2026 Input/Output: Glasses, Smart Pens, BCI
Time to reinvent input/output in 2026 beyond the phone: (1) eye glasses that see and hear everything you see and hear? Meta may have done the right thing for the wrong (AR) reason (2) better pens that digitize the...
Scale AI by Embedding Feedback Loops, Not Flashy Demos
In 2025, a lot of teams treated AI like a feature multiplier. Bolt it on, ship a demo, call it progress. The hard work of designing systems that learn, degrade gracefully, and hold up under real usage was quietly discounted....
Banks Ditch Legacy Contracts for AI‑Native Systems
It's 2026. The best financial institutions are quietly doing something that would’ve been unthinkable 5 years ago. They’re letting 20–30 year legacy contracts expire — and replacing them with AI-native systems of record. This time is different. Really. Why? *...
Successful Startups Act, Others Stay Stuck in Denial
Few startups have a smooth ascent. Many if not most have some setbacks initially. The good ones react by focusing on specific steps they can take. The bad ones are vaguely hopeful, or depressed, or in denial — and change...
Setbacks Shape Founders by Their Meaning, Not Reality
Most first-time founders believe the hardest part is the situation they’re in. A missed deadline. An investor who passed. A launch that didn’t move numbers. A hire that didn’t work out. In the early days, progress gets interrupted in small, unglamorous ways...
Jared Friedman: The Hacker‑Builder Rock of YC
YC Managing Partner Jared Friedman is a rock. He's a hacker, builder, and true founder. It's one of my favorite things about returning to YC the last 3 years, getting to work with him.
SpaceX IPO Could Top $1 Trillion, Biggest Ever
"What happens once SpaceX goes public at $1T+? It will be likely the biggest IPO of all time." with @rodriscoll @HarryStebbings + me https://t.co/jJPfjo7ShA
Join Batter Up X H‑On Dream: Korean Startups Pitch Jan 8
SF investors, join us at Batter Up x H-On Dream SF on January 8th! We're bringing Korean founders onstage to pitch their startups, get feedback from a panel of investors, and eat some za🍕. RSVP here: https://t.co/FH4yBleMSg https://t.co/SVGvNz6HXh
AI-Powered Restaurant SaaS Hits 3x YoY Growth
Nothing like epic investor updates on 1/1/26. First up is @owner: 👩🍳 One of the best companies I've ever invested in is @owner — AI for restaurants. A great example of AI Vertical B2B. They dramatically accelerated in 2025: • Growing almost...
YC Should Open Austin to Diversify Beyond Silicon Valley
.@garrytan I would urge you to reconsider this decision and open YC Austin. First, the data is looking in the rear view mirror. “Past performance does not guarantee future results,” as the saying goes. The Austin startup ecosystem is off...
Document Your SOPs Now, Or Lose Premium Sale
When the buyer asks for the SOPs and the founder realizes the "manual" is just their brain. Every founder reaches a point where they feel ready to exit. The growth is there, the product is solid, and they’re already eyeing the next...
Billionaire Tax Drives $500B Out, Burdens Californians
People I know, with a collective net worth of $500B, scrambled and left California for good yesterday. They took no risk because of the proposed asset seizure tax - introduced as a “Billionaire Tax”. Without these people, the California budget deficit...
2026 H2 Set for Massive IPO Wave: SpaceX, Databricks, More
"2026 will be a year of MASSIVE IPOs in back half of the year: SpaceX first, Cavna, Databricks, and Anthropic. And that's just a start." with @HarryStebbings @rodriscoll + me https://t.co/DiFPYJGaET
Cash at Close Beats Inflated Valuation Every Time
You get an LOI with a $10M valuation. Your heart jumps. You’re already thinking about the "I made it" moment. Then you read the fine print: > $2M is Cash at Close > $3M is an "Earn-out" based on crazy growth targets >...
AI-Native B2B Firms Command Premium, Others Face Discount
Navan IPO’d in October and hit $800m ARR growing 29%. And it still is trading at 5x ARR. If you aren’t truly AI Native, the world doesn’t love you today in B2B. Even with those numbers....
Bernie Right About
A couple of important thoughts and clarifications: Where is Bernie right? He is right that a handful of the Tech Billionaire class are completely and totally loathsome. Monopolists who’ve flouted privacy, dampened free speech, enabled debanking and sewed societal chaos with...
Enterprise AI Adoption Hinges on Forward‑deployed Engineers, Not Just Data Labeling.
Enterprises will not adopt AI without forward-deployed engineers? Are revenue numbers posted from data-labelling companies real revenue or GMV? There are 8+ players in the data-labelling market with $100M in ARR, who wins? Who loses? Are AI talent marketplaces dead? Do you have...
Meta Pays $2B for $100M ARR Startup
Meta is acquiring Manus for $2 billion. Manus disclosed $100 million in ARR achieved in eight months, 147 trillion tokens processed since launch. Can we use those figures to explain the acquisition price?
VC Veteran Calls Venture Capital a Scam, Proposes Reform
On the TWISTYs, we celebrate our favorite moments from the past year of “TWiST.” In this highlight, Guest of the Year winner Doug Leone (of Sequoia fame) tells us why he thinks venture capital is a scam and a sham,...
Simple AI Apps Deliver Massive Revenue and Growth
Simple app ideas are crushing it! Look at this AI text humanizer on @acquiredotcom: > $550K TTM revenue > $392K TTM profit > 269% YoY growth Check full listing: https://t.co/J9L0LHJ8o1 https://t.co/dssv07wJMb
Founder‑Led ETF Targets Creative, Long‑Term U.S. Winners
Founder-led companies are often more creative, capable of thinking long term, and mission-driven. $FDRS is an ETF of the top 50 U.S.-listed companies that are still founder-led. How do you think it will do? I am into it. Smart move...
ARR Multiples Often Irrelevant in Acquirer’s Strategy
M&A pricing can be a weird thing Meta buys Manus for $2B+ at $125m ARR Then likely … abandons all that revenue. It is a distraction, and in the end, immaterial to Meta’s revenues. Whatever Meta does with it, it...
Detach Ego, Embrace Feedback to Close Your Exit
When a buyer calls your codebase "messy" during due diligence. Selling your startup is emotional. No way around it. You’ve spent years bleeding for the business with late nights, zero salary, the works. Then a buyer comes in and looks at your "baby"...
Niche SaaS Will Thrive Despite AI Agent Disruption
Here’s why I think there will STILL be room for great SaaS companies, even in the age of the AI Agent. We’ve all heard the fear-mongering… AI is coming for every other category of software, particularly companies relying on recurring...
Founders Should Meet VCs Only on Their Own Terms
Here’s why I say founders need to always maintain “ball control”. It can be a nerve-wracking moment for a founder whose company is just starting to get traction… a VC reaches out cold and wants to take a meeting. It...
Benchmark, A16z, Hummingbird, Creandum Battle For
"Who Is The VC Fund of the Year? @benchmark vs @a16z vs @HummingbirdVC vs @creandum" with @HarryStebbings @rodriscoll + me https://t.co/9aw20r6YHL
Treat Your Roadmap as a Hypothesis, Ship to Validate
A product roadmap is a hypothesis about user behavior. Shipping is how you interrogate it.
Tackling America’s Broken Healthcare, Housing, and Education Systems
If/when I run, I’m going to focus on solving the big 3: 1. Healthcare 2. Housing 3. Education These are the most regulated, calcified, inefficient & corrupt verticals in America. We’ve funded companies in each & it’s been brutal. So hard,...
AI Valuation Bubble Exists, Not Technology or Revenue
Are we in an AI Bubble? Technology Bubble -> NO Investment Bubble -> Likely YES Valuation Bubble -> Absolutely YES, in the private markets. Revenue Bubble -> NO. https://lnkd.in/g2ea7pFK
Make Yourself Irrelevant to Boost Exit Valuation
If your business can’t survive without you, it isn’t an asset. It’s a job. I talk to founders every day who are proud of being "in the weeds." They close every lead, ship the critical code, and manage every fire. In...
Motive's S‑1 Shows Growth Outpacing Samsara's IPO
Motive, the AI-powered fleet management company formerly known as KeepTruckin, filed their S-1 this week. The company has grown tremendously & in this post, we compare it to Samsara at IPO :
VCs Overrate AGI Timelines, Give Themselves 0.9
VCs score their own annual predictions like "We'll achieve AGI in 2025" Grade: .9
Taxing Unrealized Startup Equity Ignores High Failure Rate
It's deeply troubling to me that people really think this. The argument that taxing unrealized startup equity like real estate is like taxing lottery tickets based on what someone might win. Houses don’t expire worthless. Startups do. Most of them.
Founder Advice Misses the Emotional Burden They Bear
Most founder advice fails because it ignores what the founder must emotionally carry.
Even VPs Discover CEO Role Is Tougher than Expected
"I actually didn't know being CEO was this hard" -- every top VP that starts their own startup
Scaling Secrets in AI Era Revealed by 10,000 Experts
https://t.co/5gjWmKLRrD is back. MAY 12-14 2026. The Secrets to Scaling in the Age of AI 10,000 of the best sharing how it's done https://t.co/f9I8gHsF4U
Niche Real‑Time News SaaS Delivers $800K Revenue, 70% Growth
Niche SaaS plays like this are game changers. Real-time news API for global coverage live on @acquiredotcom > $800K TTM revenue > $600K TTM profit > 70% YoY growth Full listing: https://t.co/qAPFWjNXCv https://t.co/3T3Kq6mdfG
California Tops List as Worst State for Startup Exits
California already taxes founders far, far more than any other state. Far more. 5 worst states for startup exits (tax rate + QSBS combo): California - 13.3% + NO QSBS exclusion 💀 Hawaii - 7.25% + only 50% QSBS Alabama - 5% +...
Antitrust Should Foster Small Tech, Not Block M&A
Antitrust regulators should just allow M&A and focus on helping little tech so consumers get alternatives and keep big tech in check American antitrust policy should be about creation Support little tech, allow M&A and stop big tech structural self-preferencing instead https://t.co/HNE3w7wX4r
AI Agents Halve B2B Sales Teams by 2026
Ok I'm not any sort of savant. But I chatted (using AI) with every SaaStr AI speaker from 2025 — from OpenAI to Anthropic to Zapier and beyond — reviewed 100+ past conversations, and synthesized what the best operators are actually...
Federal Pre-Emption Threatens AI Innovation, Favours Big Tech
If you’re wondering why we should support a federal pre-emption for AI regulation, this is a case study in the idiocy that will destroy AI innovation in America, particularly for little tech Big tech can afford the army of lawyers. Startups...
Billionaire Tax Threatens California Startups, Fuels Exodus
Why might the proposed “billionaire tax” kill startups in California? This is simple and extreme uncertainty that will cause people to leave the state before their startup becomes successful Many will choose not to start in California at all https://t.co/yPhUDw0Tbn
California's Agglomeration Fuels Billions, Protects US Innovation
California already has incredible agglomeration effects. It’s a thing that generates companies worth billions to trillions Why dismantle it? Startups in SF Bay succeed 2.5X more than every other place in the world. Protecting California *is* protecting American innovation
Emerging Managers Spend 18 Months Fundraising, Not Building
According to @johnfelix123, emerging managers take an average of 18 months to raise. Wild. As an LP in several funds, I’d rather see that time spent deploying capital and supporting founders. https://t.co/8iT5zLIypS
Financial Buyers Beat Strategic Acqs for SaaS Exits
Every founder dreams of the "strategic" acquisition. You imagine Google, Meta, or Salesforce knocking on your door with a blank check because they "need" your tech. It’s a great story but it’s a rare outcome. Strategic deals are notorious for: > Months of...
Silicon Valley's Collapse: California Platform Failing Unpriced Disruption
The disruption that’s not priced in is the disruption of Silicon Valley itself. Because California is the physical platform on which it’s built. And that platform is collapsing.
Tech Tax Could Disperse Startups Beyond California
Ro mistakes this for a big tech tax But over a decade all of big tech won’t start in CA anymore because little tech, the startups, will start in all the other states If you want to kill the golden goose of...
Mediocre VP Breeds a Cascade of Weak Hires
When you get tired, and settle on a mediocre VP You also settle on their 10-15 mediocre hires to come
