Know What's Happening in American Stocks
Know What's Happening in American Stocks
S&P 500 jumps 3% for strongest weekly gain in five months as oil eases and Trump signals Iran talks
The S&P 500 surged 3% on Tuesday, delivering its best weekly performance since November and ending a five‑week decline. The rally was sparked by President Donald Trump’s comments on a possible US‑Iran cease‑fire and a temporary dip in oil prices. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF remains 7% below its January peak, while AMD posted a 2.5% monthly gain.
The episode examines the current economic turbulence on Main Street, highlighting widespread layoffs and soft retail sales, while contrasting this with TSMC's explosive growth in the tech sector. It also explores the impact of a new AI-driven tax‑management tool that has caused a sharp decline in wealth‑manager stocks. The host references a recommended Reuters piece on how the euro and yuan's global ambitions are accelerating a drop in the dollar, tying together currency dynamics with the broader market shifts.
CBO is mostly dismissive of the effects of AI on productivity growth (overly so IMHO). They expect *slowing* potential labor force productivity as the modest AI boost to TFP is swamped by the reduction in capital services. I would take the over...
Sentiment in the stock market appears somewhat mixed. The Investors Intelligence survey (below) does show that the percentage of bulls is near the historical highs (62) while the percent bears is near the low (15). However, that level of enthusiasm is...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh all‑time high, buoyed by strong earnings from industrial and financial stocks. At the same time, the latest retail sales data showed flat growth, indicating a pause in consumer spending. Despite the...
On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes that stronger: participation up, involuntary part-time down, hours up, wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved...
Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...
Altruist, a wealth‑management startup, rolled out AI‑driven tax‑planning tools, prompting a sharp sell‑off in legacy financial firms such as Charles Schwab, LPL Financial and Morgan Stanley. The reaction reflects investor anxiety that AI could erode traditional advisory revenue streams. Despite...
And it’s not just global earnings that have been showing momentum. Payouts (dividends + buybacks) have been advancing as well, as companies near and far have become more shareholder savvy. The growth rate of payouts has been the primary driver...
The earnings boom has gone global, with estimates in both EAFE and EM showing good momentum. The blue squiggles show estimates for the S&P 500 and the pink ones are for the MSCI EAFE index. The days of significant divergences...
The New York Federal Reserve’s latest household‑debt report shows U.S. credit‑card balances climbing to a record $1.3 trillion in the fourth quarter, while the number of open accounts also hit an all‑time high. The surge reflects persistent consumer spending despite elevated...
This formidable earnings growth has allowed valuations to take a back seat for a change. While the 5-year CAPE ratio is up there at 32x, the n12m P/E multiple doesn’t seem too onerous at 22x, considering not only the earnings...
NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Employment Cost Index (ECI) fell for the second straight quarter, marking the slowest annual wage growth in more than four years. In Q4, total compensation rose just 2.8% year‑over‑year, down from...
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...
⚠️US HIRING IS AT RECESSION LEVELS: US hiring rate sits at just 3.3%, in line with the 2020 Crisis and one of the lowest readings in 13 years. Hiring is even weaker than during the 2001 recession and at levels seen during...
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that January 2026 consumer spending stalled, with retail sales slipping amid unusually cold weather. Month‑over‑month retail sales fell 1.2%, while personal consumption expenditures dropped 0.8% year‑over‑year. Analysts say the weather‑induced headwind temporarily depressed demand, but...
Total US consumer credit increased by $24.05 billion in December, far higher than forecasts of an $8.0 billion increase.
🔴AI is NOT the reason for job market LAYOFFS: Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited in 7,624 of 108,435 layoffs announced in January, representing 7% of all cuts that month. Since 2023, AI has been referenced in just 3% of all job cuts...
AI spending isn't a debate anymore, it's cemented. @DivesTech on the multiplier effect across software, infrastructure and data centers 💻🚧 https://t.co/TC1BjQAHtv
The average stock reporting so far this earnings season has moved 5.2% up or down, the biggest post-earnings move since at least 2012--Citi https://t.co/Avh8yKzn1V
Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...
Small Warner Bros. Discovery Shareholder Blasts ‘Flawed, Inferior’ Netflix Offer and Backs Paramount’s Hostile Bid — but Will It Matter? https://t.co/NGSPvAdqOW via @variety
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ
Look forward to discussing this AI driven sell-off and the opportunities in tech on @BloombergTV at 9:40 am with @mattmiller1973 and @daniburgz 🔥🍿📺🐂🏆🎯
Macro Themes Deck (148 slides) @HedgeyeTV 11AM tomorrow Sneak Peak: this slide shows our Long Credit, Short Software Theme that MANY missed https://t.co/sBbXGGtVAr
Macro: growth softens, yields rise. Key: sticky CPI, Fed tightening, tight labor. Risks: stagflation, policy error. Trade: short US Treasury duration as real yields climb. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
MARKET RECAP 📈 The Dow Jones closed at another record high, now up 4.3% so far in 2026. All eyes on January CPI coming this Friday 👀 What the heck is going on?!? Let’s talk about it 🗣️
Financial stocks are "overearning" and subject to disruption. Altruist's tool is the tip of the iceberg. Today's share price declines are justified, imho - as pricing of industry product offerings will become more commoditized. This was inevitable. Trading at historic premiums...
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan sounded more confident about the labor market outlook compared to Sept and Nov. She is also slightly more optimistic about inflation, pointing to recent downtrends in the "trimmed mean" PCE reading. But her bottom line is...
Bessent on balance sheet policy in a Warsh Fed: "I wouldn't expect them to do anything quickly. They've moved to an ample [reserves] regime ... that does require a larger balance sheet. So I would think they'll probably sit back,...
Markets turned more defensive Tuesday as early strength faded... In today’s CHART THIS: • $SPX stuck below 7000 • Bonds rally on weaker retail sales • $GOOGL below the 50-day • $AVGO trapped between key MAs • Earnings: $KO $MAR $GILD $HOOD CHART THIS -> https://t.co/pHGfUwqPar
The ECI data out this morning is consistent with the thesis that underlying inflation is around 2.5%. And labor market looseness suggests that is more likely to go down than up. Wages ex volatile incentive pay have been steadily growing at...
$UBER one of the show's favorite longs hits a multi month low and is now close to -30% below its recent high. Crickets. @dougkass @KeithMcCullough
The jobs report is due out tomorrow. Along with it, are the annual benchmark revisions. In other words, we may soon learn that the labor market is in worse shape than we thought. https://t.co/b44jhyLPVL
RPK, last time I asked you about $RIG signaling buy more - what's the bull case on $HAL on sale? @RPKent
Little Bounces Off Big Support From my live trading room Friday... Snap-back rallies off big support does not a trend-reversal make 🙃 $MSFT $AMZN $QQQ $BTCUSD $SLV https://t.co/OLa6XrVvqJ
No AI disruption worries in railroads, with Union Pacific, CSX, and Norfolk Southern all touching ATHs
The 'sell America' trade pressure seems to be picking up again. The SPX-VEU (rest of world equity ETF) ratio is the lowest since April 22nd. A little further and it is a two year low. Adding the DXY Dollar Index in for...
$AMZN is holding steady after the gap frenzy last week. A rally back to the 200-day moving average would make sense for the bulls and the bears, but that feels more like a "trade" to me. The real question...
GDPNow model (a “nowcast,” not a forecast) from @AtlantaFed down to +3.7% q/q annualized for 4Q2025 https://t.co/NKqC4jdaL0
Imagine being on a pretent "investment committee" that has finally figured out being Long Industrials $XLI and isn't Long of the Big $CAT ? lol Reality: they're all still long of the #Bag7 Stocks and widely held Large Cap Financials...
WH keeps 'pumping up' payrolls for tomorrow. Here's why. Revisions could wipe out all job growth last year. Zero. zip. nada. https://t.co/RILDizthdl
ECI: Private-sector pay growth decelerated ever so slightly last year. Wages and salaries for private sector workers ex-incentive paid occupations was +3.38% in Q4 from a year earlier, unchanged from Q3. https://t.co/769ycb4jwP
Can't help but notice $COIN is bouncing off major league support around $145, lining up well with the Sep '24 and Mar '25 lows. Previous lows have been confirmed with a bullish crossover from weekly PPO. But dang...
Software earnings have been quite resilient, yet prices have collapsed over AI worries. As a result, multiples are the cheapest they've been since 2014. Sometimes things are cheap for a reason, but what if this is another DeepSeek moment? Nice charts...
The one-two punch today of highly disappointing holiday retail sales and the highest consumer delinquencies since 2017 paints a bleak picture for lower-income and younger Americans. https://t.co/Bd2eX18BAU https://t.co/H1biY6UCIL
You may think you know all about stockmarket seasonality... but this special focus piece from the Weekly ChartStorm lays out a few more angles and details that you might not have considered before: https://t.co/5sf2QCC8pE https://t.co/XBuZIufwiB
Our team probably creates a couple hundred charts each week. Here are some of our favorites from last week in the @CarsonResearch Charts of the Week. https://t.co/UIFr74RPu4
Great analysis in his note this week on some positives and negatives from @scottcharts. But breadth continues to be the one big reason to expect this bull to continue imo. https://t.co/WO4e9HXrem
Adding Some QQQ to My SPY Short @TheStreetPro I just shorted (QQQ) (to add to my (SPY) short earlier this morning): * QQQ $615.74 By Doug Kass Feb 10, 2026 9:26 AM EST
