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New Global PMI Upswing Expected Through 2027

It’s been a while since I’ve seen so much focus on the ISM. Our work has over 15 individual series that lead this data (regressions don’t work well out of sample), between 6 and 18 months and another dozen that corroborate the actual ISM prints when they come out with other macro data across the economy. What’s everybody’s process for understanding inflection points and the duration of new trends? PMIs are some of the most important macro data when it comes to understanding the breadth of the economy. They don’t explain aggregate growth as much as they explain the mix of growth under the aggregate data. My work suggests we’re in a new global PMI (again think breadth) upturn that’s likely to last into 2027.