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Tuesday recap
EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
“.. a stock selloff that has wiped out almost 90% of the firm’s market value since the September high as the broader Trump digital-asset trade misfires.” @business https://t.co/abCpOHoz5E https://t.co/8xBLvDYzwC
Agree, Citrini got a massive debate going and increased subs, but. $IGV, $QQQ up big in past two days. And ETF flows are pouring into US equity ETFs (as usual). It only reinforces my view that doomerism is what sells...
Viral Blog Bottoms? If you look at the software vols, we obviously still see some very high IV Ranks but those should come down today now that some earnings have passed. We'd argue lower IVs in this space generates a bullish...
Short Thought: Nvidia Ratchets Up the Risk Michael BurryFeb 26 Welcome to one short thought. Just going through the Nvidia numbers. I would like to highlight for you one specific aspect of their financials that I find troubling. The 2026 Form 10K...
Look forward to discussing Nvidia’s robust earnings and guidance on @BloombergTV with @lisaabramowicz1 @FerroTV @annmarie at 7:15 am
$SNOW revenue, RPO and guidance came in ahead of consensus and the WSJ headline says company benefiting from AI adoption. This is the point we've been making for several weeks... some infrastructure software businesses are beneficiaries of AI. https://t.co/dX1lJsYfye
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +53.00 (0.21%) 25,672.50 DowJones +307.77 (+0.63%) 49,482.27 Nasdaq +288.40 (+1.26%) 23,152.08 India Vix -0.6875 (-4.86%) 13.4625 S&P 500 +56.07 (+0.81%) 6,946.14
$CRM - Despite the post-mkt selling, CRM looks poised to bounce in the weeks ahead & i suspect Dip-buyers can finally position long in Software for some mean reversion vs market and also vs. Semis @IBDinvestors @marketsurge NEW Beta...
$NVDA Three takeaways on Pressure Points: 1. The stock being down 1% underscores that investors’ long term growth concerns remain. 2. The fundamentals and outlook came in better than elevated whisper numbers. 3. Most importantly, the guidance reinforces just how early we are...
Small caps just hit record highs. While everyone chases mega-cap AI, leadership may already be rotating. That’s not a squeeze. It’s a signal. @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap explain why it matters: https://t.co/11ZhJg1jL3
The Mag-7 used to trade at a 100% premium over the rest of the S&P. It's now collapsed to a 10-year low. Do you realize what's happening?
The final question of the call turned into a 7-minute Jensen manifesto on how growth can continue. $NVDA My take: It passed the sniff test. Here’s the play-by-play: Goldman asked if Jensen still feels good about growth accelerating beyond the April quarter. Jensen...
We are in Day 2 of this toga party in oversold tech bounce chases - if NVDA doesn't muck it up.
FWIW - After the kind of prolonged coil that we've seen with Nvidia since the summer, you would expect to see a dramatic move up or down as the tug of war between the bulls and bears is resolved. We didn't...
$NVDA is now up only 0.6%, compared to 2.5% when the call began. One reason for the drift: the call is missing the usual "early innings" table pounding message. Jensen is leading with data over his typical bombardment of bullish...
Jensen takes the mic for three minutes: OpenAI: Confirmed they are nearing an expanded partnership (following reports of a $30B+ equity stake). Meta: Says things are "going well," though avoided addressing Meta’s recent pivot to AMD for certain workloads. Then turned it over...
Nvidia $NVDA unchanged since October with hard assets ripping higher - up 1% after the close, Lord pump master is losing his touch :) https://t.co/417bLFxptb
The top 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are 50% more volatile than the S&P 500 itself right now. Important for risk... but more important for alpha right now. https://t.co/yqBR2QU8nK
Breadth looks set to contract near-term per the A-D line, but that's not necessarily bearish. It just puts more pressure on the megacaps to stage a relative recovery #fairleadstrategies https://t.co/bbTJhh0egy
The central takeaway from $NVDA's results and April guidance: The most knowledgeable companies in the world when it comes to building AI increasingly believe it will be wildly disruptive. What does "disruptive" mean? It will be messy. Productivity per knowledge worker...
The AI Infrastructure Trade is alive and well. The bar was high going into $NVDA earnings. Most investors were expecting the high end of the April revenue guide would imply around 70% yy growth. The actual guide high end implies...
$NVDA gave a monster guide. High end of April quarter revenue guide implies 79% y/y growth vs. Street at 64%.
Just a reminder. With the KOSPI all but a semiconductor ETF in drag, tonight's Nvidia news will have serious global ripples.
Right Tail Right Now😉 I set up why AI-pressured names like $TRI can stage sharp reflexive rallies And boy did it: +25% We covered lots of chase plays as well as my timing for next wave of volatility within a still fragile market...
Yes, some Hindenburg Omens triggered near major peaks. But a lot didn't. Don't get sucked into this clickbait. When semis are at ATHs, don't get too bearish. https://t.co/zLh8chvvQx
Similar to the November lows, when they all start saying the word Hindenburg often, you know we are close to lows. We've seen 225 Hindenburg Omens since 1970 and if you look closely you'll see the great majority of them...
The S&P 500 is currently up on the month on a total return basis. This would be 10 months in a row stocks were higher. It is simply amazing how much fear and worry we are seeing with this happening.
Only the Growth Managers that understood the Sector Shifts are hitting new all-time highs today
Bolted to the chair. Here we go in Real-Time Alerts, helping you risk manage the market close https://t.co/nFq99grnJy
Great to be on @CNBCTheExchange with @KellyCNBC discussing what to expect from Nvidia and the Godfather of AI Jensen and Nvidia with tonight’s key earnings. Also walking thru the “AI Ghost Trade” black cloud over the software sector and how...
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
two thoughts: 1) viral blog post shorting in the hole? 2) funds, apparently short these stocks, helped with the article 🤔? clarification needed. tbd but fun to watch. https://t.co/SCzhCMC5Fo
$HOOD - coming to life after a brutal few weeks. Crypto + tech bounce helping restore confidence. Still expansive, but a relief rally may be due.
Just keeps going $FORM Seeing this Co-Packaged Optics discussed across a bunch of big winners this year https://t.co/sosRLrP3tq
$SPY would have to decline to 688.35 and $QQQ to 608.99 to fill this morning’s gaps. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is. https://t.co/jdkTxguib0
EVERCORE: “.. Trump has not emphasized the $2,000 ‘tariff rebate’ checks since earlier this year, suggesting that at least for now this has fallen off the agenda ..” 😔 https://t.co/EN0kaph84R
Despite Large-cap Technology stocks down over the past 4-5 months, both the Mid-cap Tech and Small-cap Tech indexes keep hitting new all-time highs this week. https://t.co/X2wjg3v8Qp
$RDDT - back at its support zone from June last year (just after the market flash-crash). This is a pivotal point...buyers need to defend it to avoid getting ugly. Bulls need a 165.00+ breakout to restore confidence.
$ECG monster move today, a favorite small cap wrote on last year, up 26% to new highs
Just a reminder that after the close today the market narrative is likely to change and with that so will investor confidence and their decisions.
Uber isn’t building robotaxis. It’s aggregating them. That changes everything. $UBRL may be a leveraged bet on the entire AV ecosystem. Read why: https://t.co/uYTNGDwJMe @willrhind @graniteshares
This AI is gonna kill software trade echoes the "Death of the Mall" trade from 10yrs ago which was to go long $AMZN and short $XRT (brick and mortar). ProShares made $CLIX, $EMTY and $ONLN to do trade for you....
CHART OF THE DAY: Our Country Exposures Continue To Outperform $SPY Monkeys https://t.co/xvYrId3oap via @hedgeye
I suppose that now that the team at Goldman thinks this is true, it must be...
International vs US stocks... fresh highs back to June 2023 on $VEU vs $SPY @stockcharts https://t.co/aAmaYUIj34
Yes, stocks in the US have been choppy so far this year. But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years. https://t.co/gX328BtAzw
$jpm did a tactical RDR around the 200day for active cash flow. There were many yesterday. Trim if u held some - or just take the day and a half trade. Same tactic happened in $MSFT and $hood....
Left Tail Delayed; Right Tail Green Shoots I wrote about this for clients Tues: https://t.co/9mH4bWEu3y
📺 THE MARKET IS COILED AT RESISTANCE AHEAD OF $NVDA $SPY is still trading within a clearly defined range, around $689, just below the $690 resistance. The key question today: do we clear $688.35–$690 before Nvidia earnings, or does the market...
CRM and NVDA report tonight. I think the VRP in software stocks is interesting, as the vol is now higher that during the Apr 24 crash. Options spreads could do well even if the stocks disappoint. You can see this in...
