"Tanzania is strengthening border controls to stop the smuggling of fuel to its fuel-strapped neighbors..." https://t.co/4B3f7ssGsi
The administration is trying SO HARD to jawbone pries down so they can have more time for a military op they didn’t expect to take this long. Treasury Secretary is out there saying ships are moving through Hormuz but it’s only...
China. Taiwan Strait and threat on Taiwan. US has pulled military from Asia. Does that leave an opportunity for China to attack Taiwan? What would that do to supply chains?
Interesting development. "The United States Coast Guard is allowing a Russian tanker full of crude oil to reach Cuba, delivering a critical supply of energy to the island nation after months of an effective oil blockade by the Trump administration..." https://t.co/WTcPH6z6eD
“War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.” - Carl Von Clausewitz (1780-1831) This remains true today despite all the...

Cited these poll results from @AP/@NORCNews in a story published Saturday. They found that there is a significant range in approval depending on *what kind of action* Trump takes in Iran. Sixty-two percent oppose deploying U.S. ground troops. Just 12...

My new book, China's 90% Model, launched on 17th March. I want to share why I wrote it and why I believe leadership teams should read it together. For sixty years I have advised Fortune 500 CEOs and boards across the globe....
Let's hope AI cyber defense beats AI cyber offense, or the internet age is over
🚨US SHIPS TRAPPED🚨 Reminder for @POTUS @SecWar @SecDuffy @CENTCOM @centcomcdr @US5thFleet @CMF_Bahrain @DOTMARAD @FMC_gov @MSCSealift that 5 US-flagged ships and the crews remain in the Persian Gulf after the @USNavy and @USCG pulled out their forces before the start of...
“Strategic interests remain deeply misaligned, negotiating positions between Washington and Tehran are widely divergent, and a profound lack of trust on the Iranian side continues to weigh heavily against the credibility of any diplomatic breakthrough.” - SocGen
Back in NYC after a week at RSAC. Still processing how much of the value came from one simple thing: actually talking to people in person. We spend so much time optimizing systems. We forget how much progress still comes from conversation. If you...
If he is in discussion with that “MORE REASONABLE REGIME”, then he should that reasonable regime to open the Strait of Hormuz… He is either LYING or he is discussing with people with NO POWER OR POLITICAL CLOUT. Trump found...
So the main objective of the war is now to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was fully open before the war started. Got it https://t.co/4zzh9wHvya

US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen: The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly...
Trump says U.S. will destroy Iran’s oil wells, Kharg Island without deal to ‘immediately’ reopen Hormuz Strait: CNBC
Fake quote @pakistanii32 Egypt has declared no “red line” to Iran Its urgency is real but it’s unlikely it would take unilateral military action IMO

I suppose that today wasn't an oil jawboning day. Instead, US President Trump just threatened Tehran with blowing up not just all its power stations, but also its oil wells, Kharg Island, and "possibly" all desalination water plants (Note: the...

If the U.S. wants to force a meaningful change in Iran's government, there's only one path forward. They have to destabilize the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Full Newsletter: https://t.co/J94zmGzUuP #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/vsSQXimbCn
A notable development. A private Ukrainian company is involved in air defense and is successfully employing SkySentinel automated turrets to shoot down Geran and other OWA drones. https://t.co/QUE2Dk24Vf https://t.co/NJs4Jdh6Nc
What are the direct and indirect effects of the Gulf conflict on telecoms and cloud / AI? How does it relate to sovereignty concerns? For telcos, "less-obvious" categories of risks are helium supply, plastics & petrochemicals, GPS, drones. https://t.co/YqE9x9wr6v
Man, geopolitically this Iran situation is a mess. - End things now? Iran realizes they can charge a "toll" for the strait. Congrats, you're funding the regime. - Ground troops? Messy. - Get Kurds, etc. involved? Risk the conflict getting more "diverse" including...

To me, the news cycle now resembles that of March 2020, where it feels like we're dealing with an unpredictable threat that will have immense global consequences. That's subjective, though the swing in oil prices provides a data point to back...
Every month, a small city's worth of Russian men disappear forever, thanks to Vladimir Putin
No Iranian missile has hit a holy site. The shrapnel that fell on the roof of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre was from a bomb intercepted in flight by an Israeli missile. Al-Aqsa has also been hit by interceptor...

#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned “we are heading toward a greater war.” He called the conflict a fight for Netanyahu’s “political survival”, with consequences that “affect the whole world.” https://t.co/DJNLKRC4xI

#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan said the war is “Israel’s war” and “Netanyahu’s war for political survival,” warning “the cost is being paid by 8 billion people,” and called for it to “be stopped immediately” for the sake of humanity. https://t.co/YYz5A18gXx
JUST IN: FT: Iran's Ras Laffan gas complex strike used advanced missiles that bypassed US defenses.
JUST IN: Iran hit overnight by Israeli strikes on Tehran and industrial hubs, focusing on military targets. https://t.co/vQh7qT6UTl
JUST IN: Middle East conflict and drone proliferation are increasing aviation dangers by narrowing flight paths, according to Europe's top safety regulator.
JUST IN: Afghanistan and Pakistan exchanged heavy fire, shattering a brief ceasefire, just as Pakistan gears up to host US-Iran talks.
JUST IN: Trump's Strait of Hormuz warning and Iran's counter-threats are making oil prices jumpy.
JUST IN: Victor Gao states no nation, including the US, can dominate China in AI or military AI.
JUST IN: Tillis: Trump's NATO jabs ignore that US lives would be lost in great numbers without the alliance.
Comparative images in planet labs of Prince Sultan Air Base from two weeks ago (delayed) and days before tell you everything you need to know about how Iran could have targeted certain aircraft on that airfield even without real time...
A new wave of AI models could turn cyberattacks into something far more scalable. According to industry and government sources, upcoming systems may enable autonomous agents to plan and execute sophisticated attacks with minimal human involvement. What once required teams could...
I assess with medium confidence this is a North Korean state actor looking for Russian officers with large crypto holdings from shaking down ransomware cyber criminals.
Welcome to the most dangerous world in our generation. Will Trumps legacy will be a world in which every nation races to get a nuclear deterrent? Can we look forward to might is right as the guide for international relations...

Former CENTCOM commander says the US can & will open Hormuz I think he's taking the narrowest military view He ignores the force of politics, markets & insurers to limit Trump's options on time & risk. 👇 https://t.co/Fw6ibZ5qLW https://t.co/shLc2VcgAj
John Kirakou worked for the CIA for 14 years and has some important insights into the start of the Iran war https://t.co/IRiELTwCyJ
Taiwan will be receiving its last shipment of Oil from the Strait of Hormuz in the next couple of days. Over under odds China will try to take advantage of their lack of fuel supply and Trump concentrating military power...
Seizing Kharg doesn’t mean “taking Iran’s oil,” writes @SheDrills It means slowing Iran's exports. It will take an occupying land force to "take" Iran's oil.
Was there ever any doubt about this? They would never take this opportunity and not install a more survivable and much larger bunker. Also keep in mind the last major expansion and addition to the bunker facilities under the WH...
🚨 Report: Saudi Arabia Pushing for Escalation? New reports suggest Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is privately urging the U.S. to maintain its military campaign against Iran, viewing it as a "historic opportunity" to reshape the Middle East. Key Takeaways: •...
The Boxer has made it part way across the Pacific. After refueling from USNS Patuxent, she is in Pearl Harbor to fuel some more and then head to Persian Gulf. She is still at least 3 to 4 weeks out.
“You know you never beat us on the battlefield,” I told my North Vietnamese Army (NVA) counterpart, Colonel Tu, during a meeting in Hanoi a week before the fall of Saigon. “That may be so,” he replied, “but it is...
Jake Sullivan - The Iran War, Trump, and U.S. Foreign Policy | The Daily... https://t.co/4ff3X1h7gn via @YouTube
Maliciously used AIs are a much greater threat than rogue AIs. And the way to defend against that threat is to strengthen our defenses against the various separate ways they could be used maliciously: cyber attacks, bio-weapons, etc.. AI isn't...
The whole world is like “I don’t know what the Strait of Hormuz is, but I’m with Samuel on this.”
Trump on Iran: "They're gonna give up nuclear weapons. They're gonna give us the nuclear dust. They're gonna do everything that we want to do."
Trump: “I would only say that we're doing extremely well in that negotiation. But you never know with Iran, because we negotiate with them, and then we always have to blow them up.” zero honor