Iran Controls Hormuz Shipping, Still Allows Limited Passage
Despite the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains open...sort of. The Iranians have taken control, requiring ships to get clearance for safe passage. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/lLVFB8CxL5 https://t.co/WldUQaXc3Y
Trump Vows to Cripple Iran's Infrastructure, Warns Government
Trump threatens to destroy Iranian infrastructure, saying its government 'knows what has to be done': CNBC
Medvedev Warns EU May Become Military Bloc, Block Ukraine
Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) is quite interesting on NATO here: he says that Trump will not leave NATO but that the splits within the alliance mean that the EU may become a military alliance. And if so, Russia will oppose EU...
Iran's Confidence: Why It Thinks It Holds Advantage
Opinion | Why Iran Believes It Has the Upper Hand - The New York Times
Russia Conducts Yars ICBM Drills in Remote Siberia
Russia's Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system unit drives during drills by strategic missile forces in an unknown location in Siberia, Russia, in this image taken from handout footage released April 2, 2026. Russian Defence Ministry/ https://t.co/i3aI9klvlM
Iran Launches Drone Strikes Across Gulf, Halting Oil and Gas
Iran targeted more sites in Arab Gulf states overnight and into Friday ⚠️ 🇰🇼 A drone attack caused a fire at Kuwait’s Mina Al Ahmadi oil refinery 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi suspended operations at its Habshan gas facilities 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia said it...
Germany Expands BND Authority, Edging Toward Police State
The Economist reports that Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) is set to gain new sweeping powers from the German Cabinet. GERMANY = THE POLICE STATE IS BEING ELEVATED INTO THE IDEAL POLITY. https://t.co/guv72FTRYD
Escalating Conflicts Spread From Regional to Global
It doesn’t de-escalate. That’s the uncomfortable reality. These phases don’t resolve quickly, and they don’t reverse easily. Pressure builds. Friction increases. More actors get pulled in. And over time, what looked regional starts to connect. That’s how it spreads. More on the website. #Geopolitics #Macro #GlobalRisk #Strategy #War
Drone Strikes Destroy 40% of Russia's Primorsk Oil Storage
Exclusive: Russia's Primorsk oil terminal lost 40% of storage to drone attacks, satellite images show https://t.co/zqKHubcFrw
AI Choices Expose Hidden Danger in Ongoing Conflict
3 AI-driven decisions in this conflict reveal something far more dangerous than most analysts are willing to say out loud.
Drones Force New Carrier to Stay Offshore, Not Gulf
A third carrier is coming—but not for weeks. And even then, it won’t enter the Gulf. Drones and missiles have pushed carriers offshore. That’s the shift: the most powerful platforms can’t get close. https://t.co/Nus5eKXptx #Oil #Geopolitics #Warfare #EnergyCrisis
IRGC Targets Oracle Data Center, Threatening Global Economy
IRGC claims it struck Oracle's data center in Dubai This is systemic escalation. The whole economy is at risk https://t.co/bhusTVrnI4 #Iran #Geopolitics #Cyberwar #EnergyCrisis
German High‑Payload Multicopter Accelerates Rescue Missions
Grille: High-Payload German Multicopter Built for Rapid Rescue Operations by @DefenseTrends #Drone #Engineering #EmergingTech #Innovation https://t.co/VWMr6QbOOh
Iran's Ground War Prep Undermines US Hormuz Landing
Iran is preparing for a ground war Fortified islands, mass mobilization, drones, mines. No US landing will secure Hormuz, suggests @WSJ #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Warfare https://t.co/pOnn8NhX25
Iran Retains Half Its Launchers, War Far From Over
After 12,000+ strikes, Iran still has ~50% of its launchers—and thousands of drones. The war isn’t close to over. It’s nowhere near resolved. #Iran #Geopolitics #Oil #Warfare https://t.co/0ZeXMVdIGW
500 US Troops Wounded Highlights Unprepared Asymmetric Threats
At least 500 US troops wounded in Iran war, writes @theintercept U.S. forces are taking sustained hits from the asymmetric systems that were known to be risks This wasn’t unexpected. We were unprepared. The gap between narrative and reality is widening. #Geopolitics #Warfare...
Use AI Defensively To
Cyber attacks launched by malicious humans using AI are a very real AI risk. The best way to guard against them is to use AI to proactively find vulnerabilities in our systems and harden them, along with parallel efforts in...
Europe’s Navies Lack Ships Despite Advanced Technology
“Military operation would take an infinite amount of time and expose forces to immense coastal and ballistic risks.” He is correct. But what he won’t say is that France and Europe are incapable, but the US, South Korea, Japan, and China...
Bug Bounties Aren’t Universal, AI Hype Is Overblown
Had a great conversation with Mackenzie Jackson from Aikido Security on The Secure Disclosure — we got into some contrarian takes: not every org should run a bug bounty (yes, from the Bugcrowd founder), AI slop is really just 2014...
Only Ground Invasion, Not Pressure, Secures Objectives
Maximum pressure alone won’t force capitulation—even if the U.S. strikes strategic assets, writes @citrinowicz Only a ground invasion, conquest & occupation accomplish “all of our objectives.”
Article 5 Used only for Afghanistan; NATO Stays Defensive
sorry chump, the only time Article 5 was invoked was for the U.S. Afghanistan. NATO is in principle a defensive alliance. The U.S. was not attacked. Donald Trump decided he wanted to play war becuase Netanyahu told him to.
Finland's Iran-China Talks Risk US‑NATO Tensions
The NATO problem is that USA sees China as the enemy. Iran, Russia and China are allies. So when Finland discusses the war in Iran with China the relationship with US is going to be problematic.
One Hit Can Undo Hundreds: Asymmetric Warfare’s Tail Risk
Asymmetric warfare is similar to tail risk. You hit 100 targets; they hit just one and you've lost.
CrystalX RAT Bundles Prankware to Taunt Victims During Data Theft
CrystalX RAT comes with a handful of prankware, allowing hackers to tease their victims as they steal their data. https://t.co/aOjjo0ApuY
Need $200B to Create Unfixable Mess in Iran
But we need another $200 billion to make a mess in Iran that we are appropriately too afraid to fix (which is why this should never have happened)
Trump’s Proposed Defense Spend Adds $4k per Household
Trump's "dream" military budget will cost another $4,000 per household annually. There also would be no reason for such ridiculous spending if Trump wasn't making enemies everywhere https://t.co/KfHr3qdFLh (And the money from tariffs exists only in Trump's dementia.)
SecWar Approves Navy Officers Carrying Sidearms at Home
The posts where the US Navy officer blob absolutely lost its collectivist mind at me for saying officers should be allowed to carry sidearms home. Now @SecWar made it happen. 🤩🤩
Joint Chiefs Overhaul Leaves only Two Original Leaders
This move is a surprise to many relatively senior Army officials. It also comes close to nearly a complete remake of the Joint Chiefs since Hegseth took office. Only Gen. Eric Smith of the Marine Corps and Gen. Chance Saltzman of...
Recalling My Most Controversial Sidearm Advocacy Post
OHHH MAN. Who else remembers the absolute firestorm I kicked off when I said all officers should carry sidearms, including Navy officers? That might still be the most controversial thing I’ve ever posted on X. ENDORSED 👇👇
Iran Claims Cyberattack on Oracle, AWS Data Centers
Iran says that they have hit Oracle datacenter in Dubai, AWS datacenter in Bahrain - CNBC (just now)
U.S. Navy Ready to Reopen Hormuz; Europe Stalls
tl;dr The U.S. Navy can reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It just won’t happen until Europe sits down, shuts up, and lets our kids cook…
Narrative Skips Iran, Frames Hormuz Closure as Disaster
At least now Iran is also omitted from the narrative, as US and Israel were by default. We can now pretend the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was a natural disaster, something to collectively overcome
Iran's Grip Weakening as Iraqi Militias Surge Attacks
Iran Is Losing Its Grip On Iraqi Militias A former tier one operator in Iraq offers candid insights into the spike in attacks against U.S. interests by Iranian-backed militias. https://t.co/i8C3taAJsQ
Ex‑CIA Officer Claims He Thwarted Iran’s Nuclear Bomb
CIA officer says he stopped Iran from getting the nuclear bomb Chalker told me that he wanted to repair his reputation. He had always been an American patriot, he insisted, and to prove it he was willing to talk publicly, for...
Cluster
Says the guys launching cluster munitions at civilian buildings in Israel and blowing up random buildings in gulf states.
Europe's Iran Deal Without Hard Power Is Naïve
Signing a deal with Iran without hard power (fighter jets flying over Theran) to back it up would be immensely naive, so if it is true that Europa is negotiating with Iran it seems ... unrealistic ☹️
RC‑135 Surveillance Jet Spotted Stripped of Paint
RC-135 Rivet Joint Surveillance Jet Caught ‘In The Nude’ In Texas It's not common to see America's workhorse electronic intelligence collection jet stripped of its gray-and-white paint scheme. https://t.co/WJg8TqG1jU
House Introduces Bill Banning AI Chip Equipment Sales to China
Bill to ban sale of key AI chipmaking equipment to China introduced in House https://t.co/ORH3vVpFeH via @nbcnews
Attackers Exploit April Fool’s Uncertainty to Launch Confusion
They allegedly waited for APRIL 1st 🤡 “some of the speculation was that they waited until April Fool’s Day” Confusion as a weapon. When nobody knows if it’s a joke… attackers already moved. ~ @omeragoldberg https://t.co/DpFazTNV4V
Beware: Fake Login Alerts with Password Reset Links
Received an email from X warning you of new or unusual login attempts, with a handy 'change password' link? Beware, it's a slick new phishing attack that can trick even the most vigilant user. I've seen this with other sites...
Iranian Bridge Destroyed After Trump's Bomb Threat
Key Iranian Bridge Severed By Airstrikes The bridge near Tehran, a critical artery and source of pride for Iran, was taken out soon after Trump’s threat to bomb the country “back to the Stone Ages.” Updating live: https://t.co/I6BpKBRbaf
Iran War Undermines U.S. Strategy Across Asia
As the United States wages war with Iran, much of Washington has been consumed with a geopolitical debate about what it will mean for America’s strategic competition with China. But this abstract debate belies the harsh realities now facing governments,...
US‑China AI Race Mostly Positive, Yet Dual‑Use Risks Loom
This is a thoughtful, thorough, and pragmatic take on the threats from Chinese AI development. I expect the bulk of US/China AI competition to be positive sum. And it's dual use tech that can be weaponized. This piece has solid...
Market Odds Suggest US Troops Soon Despite Trump’s Vague Timeline
“We’ll be leaving very soon, within two weeks, maybe a couple of days longer to do the job. But we want to knock out every single thing they have." -President Trump (3/31) If this is true, why is Polymarket showing a...
Market Doubts Trump's Iran Ceasefire Timeline, 25% Chance
Looks like the market's confidence in President Trump's timeline for an end to the US-Iran conflict has dwindled to nothing given the frequent change in tone, deadlines and supposed meetings. Prediction markets currently have a ceasefire by end of April at...
Trump Proposes 2027 War Economy, Slashing Healthcare Funding
Trump wants to switch to a war economy in 2027 with massive increase in military spending and cuts to healthcare and other domestic agencies to fund it — Bloomberg
Trump Boasts Rapid US Takeover of Venezuela, Sparks Criticism
Trump on the US capture of Venezuela in his address to the nation: "American troops took the country of Venezuela in a matter of minutes...it was quick, lethal, violent & respected by everyone all over the world.” IS THIS REALLY WORTH THE...
SWMR's IPO Marks Early Promise in Drone Tech
$SWMR means business since IPO. Fresh IPO that hit the market last month in the aerospace & defense industry. People say this is the "Palantir of drones," but revenue is still young and it's early stage. Fun story to watch develop.
Roscosmos Chooses Modern Start‑1M as Light‑Weight Launcher
Roskosmos now positions Start-1M vehicle, (converted from Topol-M ICBM) as its prime candidate for a light-weight launcher through the Novy Start venture. Compare it to the Start-1 vehicle from the 1990s, based on previous-generation Topol. Context: https://t.co/qfFQGn2e0c https://t.co/rP18aP5xVL
Short‑Term Losses Mask Long‑Term Defense Innovation Gains
Given reports this week that Pete Hegseth tried to buy defense stocks prior to launching the Iran war, much attention has been paid to the failure of that trade. The index he attempted to buy, IDEF, has fallen ~13% over...