If Europe wouldn't assist in a war with a regime that every leader has condemned that has been left nearly powerless, there is little chance they would support a war against China where strong economic and supply chain dependancies exist

PAO/@CENTCOM keeps claiming the Hoveyzeh LACM is "twice as long" as PrSM. PrSm is 3.96 m; Iran's LACMs (including Hoveyzeh) are ~6 m-long Kh-55 clones. Please divide six by four. https://t.co/fUnUu3fWmM

Here’s an independent domain extension of METR’s famous time-horizon analysis, applying it to offensive cybersecurity with real human expert timing data Similar to METR: 5.7 months doubling time. Frontier models now succeed 50% of the time at tasks that take human...

.@kriegsforscherD and I have a new post about Russia's experiment with its own Drone Line initiative and employment of UAS from last year. https://t.co/XCslVa4HzU
Iran says it struck a US helicopter on search & rescue mission for downed F-15 fighter jet pilot.
Today the world sees the gigantic balls U.S. combat search and rescue has. Extremely high risk operation we hoped we wouldn’t have to see.
What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp
U.S. fighter jet shot down in Iran, search and rescue operations underway for crew — Axios
Serbia shot down an F-117 in 1999. That didn’t change the outcome of Allied Force. I hope the pilot and WSO are alive and can be extracted soon. Beyond that, it’s one aircraft.
China. Looking to build military base in South China Sea where they have forced run-ins with The Philippines. A threat to whom?

Cybersecurity isn’t a tooling problem anymore. It’s a decision problem. AI-driven threats are moving faster than human response models. Most orgs still rely on: • alerts • dashboards • manual decisions That’s the real vulnerability. The shift? → Decision Intelligence systems Comment “DECISION” and I’ll show you how to implement...
On September 12th the North Atlantic Council declared that the attacks satisfied Article 5 and established Operation Noble Eagle to coordinate support including NATO AWACS and Canadian CF-18s for air policing. ISAF was established as an Article 4 mission.
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Trump’s ’thinking’ & ‘plan’ for the US-Israeli War on Iran: "I don't think they have a plan. I don't think they know what the word PLAN is... Trump is winging it basically... He's fishing around for...
Trump said, "[Iran's] navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten." Typical -- Trump's rhetoric doesn't match reality. https://t.co/Tu24oA8RNH
Trump allowed Hormuz disruption for strategic reasons, suggests @DrJStrategy That's a crock of shit idea. I doubt Trump knows how to play chess much less 4D chess. He may be using Hormuz’s closure—and his inability to fix it—to pressure allies into solidarity. #Geopolitics...
This article makes it seem like a win that the US stole Iranian drone technology. But how damning is it that we were in a position where their tech was ahead of us? That we had to steal? https://t.co/xWqi7w0np8
LAUNCH at 0628 UTC of a Soyuz-class rocket from Plesetsk. Suspected to be a Soyuz-2-1a/Fregat with a Meridian military comms satellite, but we'll have to wait for Space Force tracking to confirm that.
The FBI reportedly classified a China-linked effort to penetrate one of its surveillance systems this week as a “major cyber incident,” meaning it was a significant risk to U.S. national security. The definition of a “major incident” was established by the...
Japan has added a new stealth asset to its underwater fleet, with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force formally receiving its fifth Taigei-class submarine on March 10. The vessel, named JS Chōgei, was handed over by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries at its Kobe...

The White House asked Congress to approve a MASSIVE INCREASE in military funding from $1.1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in FY 2027. Forget MAGA promises. Trump embraces one big idea: MILITARISM/WAR. The DoD is a home of WASTE, FRAUD, & ABUSE. No...
Counting scans and alerts isn’t security progress—it's masking unresolved vulnerabilities and rising cyber risk. https://t.co/fsb8M3fbRc
Iran downing a U.S. fighter jet changes the calculus. I thought Iranian defenses were decimated & that the US have full air access across Iran. The risks just moved up a level. #Iran #Geopolitics #Warfare #Escalation https://t.co/khMmJ0wN6f

To put this defense budget request in perspective, it would be the highest level of funding for defense in US history, surpassing even the peak funding during World War II. That peak was just under $1.2T in today's dollars. https://t.co/EjJkDRO5O5
There’s a growing gap between reported military success & strategic reality—and Trump is just now being told the truth. Is there a connection to the firing of Army Chief Randy George? https://t.co/qGIsDZcbgc #Geopolitics #Iran #Warfare #Leadership
The Anthropic and Pentagon standoff has brought AI and the military into the headlines. Here’s what’s really happening. https://t.co/nJ1AThJs3U
Apparently Putin was justified in invading Ukraine bc of something “NATO might some day do” even though NATO never threatened to do it… But the U.S. was not justified in invading Iran bc of something “they might some day do” even...
Chinese apps store sensitive data on servers in China, which the government can access, FBI warns. https://t.co/irVklBM99j

The US government blacklisted an AI company for the first time in American history. Anthropic was already deep inside classified systems. Then the Pentagon demanded unrestricted access. Anthropic said no. Got labelled a national security risk. OpenAI rushed in with their...
Great. Trump. US will reopen Strait of Hormuz. How long is “a little more time”?

The @WHOMB factsheet on the defense budget says that the military pay raise will range from 6 to 7 percent (depending on rank). A normal pay raise (as specified in law) would be 3.6 percent this year, based on the...
China, Europe and why Beijing took a swing at Iran over the Strait of Hormuz Beijing takes a stand at the United Nations at the closure of shipping lanes Despite all the blather about how China benefits from the conflict... https://t.co/dhDbWjo4ip via...
FY 27 defense budget requests 2 Virginia-class subs, same as last yr; pleasing Va/RI/CT lawmakers even though the most subs on contract are running late
Brookings Michael O’Hanlon is on cnbc saying this Iran situation isn’t an economic disaster and he’s glad Iran won’t get a nuclear weapon. The U.S. foreign policy elite needs to be crushed. They treat this stuff like it’s a hobby.
Trump has insulted and tariffed his European allies, persuaded Denmark to prepare for a US invasion and, by pressuring Ukraine and not Russia, encouraged Putin to keep fighting. All of which he has forgotten. https://t.co/GhDO27FyxK
The only good example here is NorthKorea - what not happened in NK - which is why they have nukes.
I’d like to see evidence that Iran is “hit at the core of command & control” @zriboua Where exactly is that core located in a country the size of Texas + California + Montana + Illinois? Iran’s weapons keep causing damage...

A Soyuz-2-1a rocket launched military payload from Plesetsk at 9:28 MSK today, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Developing story: https://t.co/RigHJQbcKJ https://t.co/HKeC4ADywg

Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges: The shroud of the Middle East war overhangs the Good Friday holiday. The attack on an Iranian bridge yesterday threatens a response in kind...
Today's pod: WHY CHINA IS WINNING THE IRAN WAR Energy crises tend to have strange ripple effects. The 1970s oil crises contributed to (among many other things): - stagflation, the demise of the New Deal order in America, & the ensuing...
Photos Of F-15E Wreckage Emerge Amid Iranian Claims It Shot Down An American Fighter The photos of the wreckage come amid claims and denials of aircraft shootdowns over Iran. https://t.co/1u4HnjmcNJ

Despite the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains open...sort of. The Iranians have taken control, requiring ships to get clearance for safe passage. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/lLVFB8CxL5 https://t.co/WldUQaXc3Y
Trump threatens to destroy Iranian infrastructure, saying its government 'knows what has to be done': CNBC

Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) is quite interesting on NATO here: he says that Trump will not leave NATO but that the splits within the alliance mean that the EU may become a military alliance. And if so, Russia will oppose EU...
Opinion | Why Iran Believes It Has the Upper Hand - The New York Times

Russia's Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system unit drives during drills by strategic missile forces in an unknown location in Siberia, Russia, in this image taken from handout footage released April 2, 2026. Russian Defence Ministry/ https://t.co/i3aI9klvlM
Iran targeted more sites in Arab Gulf states overnight and into Friday ⚠️ 🇰🇼 A drone attack caused a fire at Kuwait’s Mina Al Ahmadi oil refinery 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi suspended operations at its Habshan gas facilities 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia said it...

The Economist reports that Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) is set to gain new sweeping powers from the German Cabinet. GERMANY = THE POLICE STATE IS BEING ELEVATED INTO THE IDEAL POLITY. https://t.co/guv72FTRYD

It doesn’t de-escalate. That’s the uncomfortable reality. These phases don’t resolve quickly, and they don’t reverse easily. Pressure builds. Friction increases. More actors get pulled in. And over time, what looked regional starts to connect. That’s how it spreads. More on the website. #Geopolitics #Macro #GlobalRisk #Strategy #War
Exclusive: Russia's Primorsk oil terminal lost 40% of storage to drone attacks, satellite images show https://t.co/zqKHubcFrw

3 AI-driven decisions in this conflict reveal something far more dangerous than most analysts are willing to say out loud.