Week Signals: Always. Be. Coercing.
The episode reviews a week of heightened geopolitical coercion, highlighting how traditional diplomacy has been supplanted by a blend of negotiation and pressure tactics by major powers, especially the United States and China. It notes the U.S. leveraging multiple levers—military, economic, legal—simultaneously, while China employs a sequenced mix of inducements and coercion in its near abroad. The discussion uses historical analogies, from Exodus to Escobar, to illustrate the pervasive "silver or lead" choice now faced by nations, and points to recent developments such as the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and upcoming diplomatic engagements. The guest, a former senior diplomatic colleague, provides insider insight into the Trump administration’s aggressive trade strategy and its broader implications for global trade policy.
Mine. Mine. Mine. How One Corrupt Billionaire Kicked Off the Global Cobalt Spree – by Nicolas Niarchos (Vanity Fair –...
Dan Gertler, an Israeli businessman, leveraged deep political connections to dominate Congo's cobalt mining, turning the country into a linchpin of the global battery supply chain. His network of opaque contracts and bribes enabled Western tech firms to secure cheap...
Recommended Weekend Reads
This episode curates a set of recent reports on three major themes: U.S. trade policy after the Supreme Court blocked President Trump's use of the IEEPA, escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iran’s domestic challenges, and broader geoeconomic issues such as...
Global Growth Expected to Slow in 2026
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report projects global real GDP growth to slow in 2026 after a surprisingly resilient 2025. The 2025 boost stemmed from a pre‑tariff trade surge and modest monetary easing, but those advantages are fading. New trade...
China, Afghanistan, and Critical Minerals: Options for U.S. Strategic Competition Below the Threshold of War
Afghanistan has re‑emerged as a venue for great‑power competition below the threshold of war, with China pursuing cautious economic engagement focused on mineral extraction and limited infrastructure projects. U.S. analysis shows Chinese contracts have underperformed and remain exploratory, leaving a...
Why Trump Is Not to Blame for Europe’s Predicament | George Friedman
George Friedman argues that the United States should not be blamed for Europe’s security dilemma, emphasizing that both sides feel betrayed. He notes that Europe, a patchwork of nearly 50 nations, has the economic capacity to defend itself but lacks...
Veritas Looks Beyond Benchmarks to Frontier Markets for Carry
Veritas, the Finnish pension insurer, is moving past traditional credit benchmarks to chase carry in frontier‑market local‑currency bonds. Portfolio manager Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi argues that corporate spreads in developed markets are near historic lows, making high‑yield bonds unattractive due to equity‑like...
The Peasant Threat: Xi Jinping’s Mandate in Peril
The episode examines how China’s historic social contract—economic prosperity and stability in exchange for political passivity—has begun to unravel, especially as the middle class faces a real‑estate crisis and young graduates confront stagnant wages. It links the ancient "Mandate of...
Russia’s BRICS Sherpa Debunked Speculation About It Turning Into A Security Bloc
Russia’s deputy foreign minister and BRICS Sherpa Sergey Ryabkov publicly refuted claims that the bloc is evolving into a security or collective‑defence organization. He clarified that recent naval exercises off South Africa were conducted by individual member states, not a...
India Takes on the Shadow Fleet (Bonus Video)
India's navy has begun seizing shadow‑fleet oil tankers within its exclusive economic zone, capturing three vessels since early February. The shadow fleet, a network of roughly 1,000 de‑commissioned tankers, moves 3‑4 million barrels of sanctioned crude daily from Russia, Iran...
Secret Talks to Promote Regime Change in Cuba; Open Attempts to Prevent Regime Change in Peru
The episode examines covert U.S. diplomatic efforts to engineer regime change in Cuba, highlighted by secret talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Raul Castro’s grandson, alongside open U.S. moves to block regime change in Peru. It questions the viability...
The Battle for Mexico's Mobile Phone Future
The episode examines the pivotal crossroads facing Mexico's mobile telecom sector, focusing on three possible futures: AT&T's exit as the second-largest operator, its retention driven by 5G opportunities, or the rise of a new market challenger. Experts analyze the strategic...
Asia Daily: February 18, 2026
The episode reviews key developments across Asia, highlighting China's 2026 economic agenda focused on domestic demand and tech self‑reliance, U.S. accusations of a secret Chinese nuclear test, and the PLA's push to overhaul English training. It also covers political shifts...
Markets Don't Care About the Middle East
The episode explains why global financial markets largely ignore Middle‑East geopolitical turmoil, despite oil price spikes of about 10% this year. It argues that diversified oil production outside the region and modest growth forecasts mean investors see limited macro‑economic impact...
Lawrence Wong’s Words, Heard in Stereo
The episode examines Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s remarks on Japan’s growing regional role and the backlash they provoked in China, set against escalating China‑Japan tensions and a recent diplomatic spat at the Munich Security Conference. It highlights how surveys...
Africa’s MTN Group to Acquire IHS Holding for $6.2 Billion in Cash
MTN Group announced a $6.2 billion cash acquisition of IHS Holding, offering $8.50 per share—a 2.53% premium to the prior close. The deal will be funded by $1.1 billion of MTN cash, $1.1 billion from IHS’s balance sheet, and a rollover of existing...
Peace Talks Moved to Geneva
The episode reviews the latest developments in the Ukraine‑Russia conflict, focusing on the relocation of the third round of peace talks to Geneva. Kyiv cautions against overly optimistic expectations, noting the limited progress in previous rounds and the complex diplomatic...
New U.S.–AU Infrastructure Working Group Could Thrive With Strong Values-Based Safeguards
U.S. Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau and African Union Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf announced a Strategic Infrastructure and Investment Working Group to deepen U.S.–AU cooperation on trade‑enabling projects. The initiative marks a shift from bilateral deals toward a continent‑wide partnership, but...
Five Ways AI Impacts Geopolitical Risk in Latin America
The episode outlines five ways AI will reshape geopolitical risk in Latin America: massive middle‑class job disruption as AI replaces outsourced service roles; a new extractive dependence on foreign data‑center investments that may boost the economy but keep profits abroad;...
Why Can’t Mexico’s Left-Wing Government Pass a Pro-Worker Bill?
The episode examines Mexico’s stalled proposal to shorten the legal workweek from 48 to 40 hours and add an extra day off, a reform that seems at odds with the Morena‑led coalition’s track record of swift, sweeping legislation. Despite holding...
Fertility News This Month
In this episode the host curates a monthly roundup of quirky fertility news, focusing on pronatalist policies in Chile and Thailand. They critique Chile’s new "Plan Renace"—a baby‑bonus and tax‑break scheme championed by politician Kast—arguing that such incentives target later...
Threats to New US-Canada Bridge
Canada is caught between a U.S. trade war and its own USMCA renewal, while seeking to expand its automotive sector with Asian partners. President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods and warned he could block the Gordie Howe International...
China 2026: A Quiet Reset in a Shifting Global Order
The episode reflects on the start of the Lunar New Year as a moment to pause and look ahead at China’s evolving role in a shifting global order. Using Wang Wei’s poem, the host argues that while major structures and...
Munich Security Conference 2026 Key Takeaways & Outlook
The 2026 Munich Security Conference highlighted a shift from cooperative interdependence to a world of managed strategic rivalry, where military posture, technology control, and capital flows are increasingly intertwined. Delegates discussed how this new security architecture reshapes alliances, supply‑chain resilience,...
Iran and US Joint Oil Investment??? Poland Wants Own Nukes—Rapid Read 16 Feb 2026
The episode examines a surge in sanctions enforcement, highlighted by the US boarding the sanctioned tanker Veronica III, and Iran’s surprising proposal for joint US investments in oil, mining and aircraft. It also covers Hungary’s request to use the Adriatic...
Zambia Comprehensive Comeback Belatedly Blesses Debt Framework
The episode reviews Zambia's overdue debt restructuring progress, highlighting a post‑default €3 billion Eurobond swap that now accounts for about a quarter of its external debt and a 95% debt‑to‑GDP ratio. It notes strong market rebounds with the kwacha up 15%...
Unpacking the Latest Finance News From China: Key Trends and Market Insights
China’s latest five‑year plan emphasizes a shift from property‑driven growth to technology, targeting near‑5 % GDP expansion in 2026 and projecting tech to account for 18.3 % of output by 2026. The renminbi has appreciated past the 7.0 per dollar mark, indicating reduced central‑bank...
Recommended Weekend Reads
This weekend’s reads dissect the shifting geopolitics of NATO under Trump’s “quiet‑quit” strategy, the erosion of U.S. reliability among European allies, and Germany’s push to become Europe’s new defense hegemon. They also examine the economic fallout of Trump’s expansive tariff...
Week Signals: The European Unicorn
This episode of Week Signals examines why Europe, often dismissed as stagnant, is actually a strong investment "unicorn" despite its self‑deprecating narrative. It contrasts the bleak rhetoric from Munich Security Conference speakers with data showing European equities outperforming US markets,...
Friday Reading List - 13 February 2026
This episode surveys a whirlwind of political and security developments across Latin America, focusing on Mexico’s fraught reforms under President Sheinbaum, the looming electoral shake‑ups in the region, and the resurgence of U.S. influence via Trump‑aligned policies. It highlights Mexico’s...
Central Bank Rate Cuts of 100 Basis Points in Egypt and 50 BPS in Russia
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...
Iran’s Future Hinges on IRGC-Artesh Power-Sharing
Iran’s strategic trajectory now depends on how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular armed forces (Artesh) negotiate power. The IRGC’s performance in the 2024‑25 conflict with Israel exposed operational weaknesses, eroding its dominance. This vacuum has allowed...
Chinese Loan Data Out After Market - Lighter than Expected
The episode reviews China’s latest loan data released after market close, noting new yuan loans of CNY 4.71 trillion in January—significantly below the CNY 4.8 trillion forecast and far under expectations of around CNY 5 trillion. While total social financing surged to CNY...
2026-02-13: India-US Interim Trade Deal Sparks Opposition Protests and Political Criticism
The episode examines the India‑US interim trade agreement, which has moved from a tariff announcement to a flashpoint in India’s February 2026 budget session. Opposition parties are framing the pact as a “trap deal,” launching parliamentary attacks and street protests...
Trump Signals Interest in Iran Deal
In this episode, the host discusses President Trump's recent statements indicating a willingness to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran, including a timeline of about a month for talks. The conversation highlights the contrasting positions of Israeli Prime Minister...
China Mulls Blowing Aussie Property Into Space
Prominent Chinese economists Miao Yanliang and Ju Jiandong have called for easing capital controls, arguing that the current weakening U.S. dollar and a strengthening yuan present a rare opportunity to increase the currency’s value abroad. They describe 2023 and 2024...
Next Tech Bubble? China Warns of Robot Overcapacity
The episode examines China's rapid expansion of the humanoid robotics industry, driven by government subsidies and venture capital, and the resulting overcapacity warning from the National Development and Reform Commission. It highlights the high costs, limited real-world demand, and technical...
Musk’s Orbital Compute Revolution: Will Space-Based Data Centers Ignite a New Geopolitical Space Race?
The episode examines Elon Musk’s proposal for an orbital data center constellation that would deliver hyperscale AI compute powered by continuous solar energy and radiative cooling, potentially reaching 100 GW of power in space. It argues that this technology could bypass...
US Policy in Latin America - 11 February 2026
The episode focuses on Venezuela, with a deep dive into its energy sector and the geopolitical implications for U.S. policy in Latin America. It also touches on related developments in Cuba, Argentina, and the strategic role of El Paso as a...
Why Carlos Slim’s Mobile Phone Behemoth Can’t Be Taken on Head First
The episode examines Mexico’s mobile sector, focusing on América Móvil’s historic monopoly under Carlos Slim and the 2013 telecom reforms that introduced competition, free roaming, lower prices, and better coverage. Guest Jorge F. Negrete explains how those reforms achieved their...
China Unveils New Year Measures as Consumption Data Dips
Chinese local governments announced a suite of stimulus measures ahead of the longest Lunar New Year break, extending the holiday to nine days. The central government allocated 2.05 billion yuan in vouchers, red‑envelopes and subsidies to directly benefit consumers. January's consumer...
Xi’s Broken Heart: Why China’s Markets Are Bleeding Out
The episode examines the growing divergence between China’s onshore stock markets and Hong Kong’s offshore market, arguing that this split reflects a deepening mistrust of Xi Jinping’s political control over finance. While mainland indices appear stable, the offshore market is...
Chinese Traders Amplified Gold Volatility
The episode examines how Chinese traders, long recognized for aggressive speculation, sparked a dramatic swing in gold prices—from a surge to $5,600 in late January to a plunge to $4,423 within days. The host recounts a December report predicting this...
Which Latin American Leaders Will Be Forced From Power in 2026?
In this episode the host examines prediction‑market odds for Latin American leaders being ousted before the end of 2026, using data from Kalshi and Polymarket. He highlights Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador as the most volatile cases, while noting that...
The Capture of Tequila’s Mayor Uncovers a Gruesome Truth
The episode examines Mexico’s Operation Swarm, focusing on the February 12 arrests of more than a dozen officials from the tourist town of Tequila, including its mayor, for colluding with organized crime. It explains how the operation, championed by President‑elect...
India and the US Rewire Trade in the Indo-Pacific
The episode examines the interim U.S.-India trade deal announced in February 2026, which cuts U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% and obliges India to cease Russian oil imports in favor of U.S. energy supplies. It traces the...
Does Sheinbaum Really Care About Cuba? And How Likely Are US Military Strikes in Mexico?
The episode examines the increasingly fraught relationship between Mexico’s President‑elect Claudia Sheinbaum and former U.S. President Donald Trump, focusing on five intersecting issues: Mexico’s humanitarian aid and oil shipments to Cuba, alleged ties between Venezuela’s Maduro regime and Mexico’s Morena...
EM January Repeat Riff Needles Nostalgia Nod
The episode examines the surge in emerging market (EM) debt and equity performance through January 2025, noting record growth rates and unprecedented fund inflows. It compares today’s bullish sentiment to the pioneering phase of EM investing four decades ago, highlighting...
China Debt Ratio Exceeds 300 Percent of GDP Mark
The episode explains that China’s official macro debt ratio hit a record 302.3% of GDP in 2025, driven primarily by government borrowing while household and private company debt fell. It highlights the real‑estate crisis as the catalyst that halted household...
The Emerging Markets Revival and the Case for Systematic, Diversified Exposure
Emerging‑market equities delivered more than a 10% outperformance versus developed markets in 2025, sparking renewed investor interest. Swiss‑based RAM Active Investments has built a €1 billion systematic strategy that targets broad factor exposure while managing liquidity, governance and concentration risks. The...