The Regional Reverberations of the U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran | CSIS
CSIS analyst Mona Yacoubian warns that recent joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered immediate Iranian missile and drone attacks across the Gulf, shutting airspace and threatening oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s retaliation targeted civilian infrastructure in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Oman, causing unprecedented airport closures. The analysis notes limited response from Iran’s regional proxies, including a muted Hezbollah, despite the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Longer‑term, the strikes could accelerate regime instability in Iran and spur GCC defense integration, reshaping the Middle‑East order.
Daily Memo: Fallout From the Attack on Iran
The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iranian facilities over the weekend, prompting a rapid cascade of retaliatory actions. Iran responded by firing missiles at the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar, extending the conflict beyond its borders....
Five Comments on How the Iran Conflict Will Impact Latin America
The U.S. military operation against Iran is pulling Washington’s attention away from its newly‑declared Western Hemisphere priority, threatening to sideline a March 7 summit of Trump‑friendly Latin leaders. Latin American governments are divided: Brazil and Colombia condemn the strikes, Argentina...
Chinese Debates on a Fragmenting Global Order | Sinification: February 2026
The February Sinification digest captures a widening debate within China over how to navigate a fragmenting global order. Analysts propose a shift from free‑trade to “managed trade” frameworks, while others call for crystal‑clear economic red lines comparable to Taiwan policy....
Death and Spreadsheets: Cartel Excels Reveal Narco Wages
Mexican authorities seized spreadsheets from the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación that detail salaries for each rank, exposing how little the organization pays its members. The leak coincided with a viral AI‑generated video warning youths against joining cartels after the recent...
Asia Daily: March 2, 2026
Asia’s political landscape saw several notable moves in early March 2026. China’s top advisory body set its agenda for the CPPCC session, while Japan rushed its fiscal 2026 budget and adopted a cautious stance on the Iran‑Israel conflict. South Korea’s...
Book Review: India’s High-Tech Leap
Sunil Mani’s new book India’s High‑Tech Leap reviews the rise of six high‑tech sectors—pharmaceuticals, software services, COVID‑19 vaccines, wind turbines, solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles—under India’s Make‑in‑India and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives. He credits government intervention and public‑private collaboration for early successes but flags...
Merz Is Wrong: Why Hard Work Won’t Beat China
German politician Merz blamed low productivity for China’s competitive edge, arguing Germans must work harder. The article counters that China’s advantage stems from systemic factors—an undervalued yuan, extensive subsidies and strategic industrial policy—that create a 40‑60% price gap despite higher...
Geopolitical Risk and AI Risk Converging
The Capital Flows Research team notes that geopolitical instability and AI safety concerns are increasingly overlapping, creating a compounded risk environment. The analyst introduced a new AI-driven mapping tool and released a suite of TradingView indicators to monitor these dynamics....
2026-03-02: IRGC Launches Largest Offensive, Attacking 20+ US Bases and Israel
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel conducted coordinated airstrikes against Iranian targets, prompting a massive retaliatory offensive by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC launched the largest attack in its history, striking more than 20...
Latam Liftoff Peels Second-Tier Layers
Latin America’s MSCI index surged 20% in the first two months of the year, lifting the region’s weight in the global benchmark from 5% to roughly 15%, a level not seen since the early 2000s. The original “Big 3” markets—Argentina, Brazil...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Monday 2 March 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
Over the weekend, coordinated US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, prompting missile and drone retaliation that shut Dubai’s airport and threatened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict pushed Brent crude toward $73 a barrel and heightened geopolitical...
Iran, I Saw, I Conquered?
Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes inside Iran, coupled with reports of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, have triggered a sharp geopolitical escalation. Diplomacy appears to have given way to force, raising the prospect of retaliatory attacks and broader regional spillover....
Recommended Weekend Readings
The newsletter highlights a resurgence of U.S. geopolitical pressure on China, from Trump’s revived Monroe Doctrine in Latin America to a new 15% global tariff. Demographic data show major population gains in Texas and Florida while New York and California...
The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff
Brent crude has nudged into the low $70s as U.S.-Iran tensions rise, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that could be disrupted by conflict....
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation...
Where We Are in the Storm | ClubGPF Clip with George Friedman
In a recent ClubGPF live discussion, Geopolitical Futures chairman George Friedman revisited his book *The Storm Before the Calm* to argue that America is moving through an 80‑year institutional cycle. He compared today’s political polarization and economic anxiety to three...
Viral Satellite Imagery of U.S. Military Assets Around Iran NOT Taken by Chinese Satellites: Hu Bo
Chinese firm MizarVision posted high‑resolution satellite images showing U.S. F‑22 fighters at an Israeli base, sparking speculation that the pictures came from Chinese satellites. Analysts from the South China Sea Probing Initiative, led by Hu Bo, used satellite ephemeris and resolution...
Paradigm Change in the 2025 National Security Strategy
The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) reorients U.S. competition with China from a primarily military focus to an economic‑centric paradigm, emphasizing political warfare, gray‑zone activities, and supply‑chain resilience. It calls for leveraging alliances, reindustrialization, and civilian tools such as the...
This Week's Chart, Next Week's Markets
The Economist’s language analysis shows State of the Union speeches have increasingly dwelled on past achievements, a trend echoed by President Trump’s nostalgic rhetoric. Investors are left questioning the outlook for a country that spends more time reminiscing than forecasting....
Shadow Partners: China’s Collaboration with Terrorist Groups to Plunder Venezuela’s Strategic Minerals (Dialogo Americas – February 24, 2026)
Investigative reporting reveals that Chinese firms are profiting from the illicit extraction of Venezuela’s “black sands” – coltan, niobium and tin – by partnering with armed groups. The minerals travel via river and land routes into Colombia, where fraudulent paperwork...
The Global Questions Series - Number 27: The Butterfly Effect
The Global Questions Series explores the Butterfly Effect, showing how tiny diplomatic signals or policy tweaks can cascade into major geopolitical outcomes. It explains that initial conditions—power balances, leadership psychology, and economic interdependence—shape the trajectory of international systems. By contrasting...
Milei’s Economy: From Surf the Wave to Kick the Can
Javier Milei’s liberal‑market agenda has sparked a sharp divide in Argentina, with early macro data showing a modest rebound while safety‑net programs crumble for the poor. Supporters hail the reforms as a break from historic boom‑bust cycles, whereas critics warn...
Collateral Economic Damage in Russia-Ukraine Crossfire
The U.S. State Department lodged a formal protest with Ukraine after a drone strike hit Russia’s Black Sea oil terminal in Novorossiysk, damaging American economic interests. Ukrainian Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna confirmed the warning, urging Kyiv to refrain from targeting U.S....
Private Credit in Emerging Markets Surges to Record Levels:
Private credit allocations to emerging markets hit record levels in 2025‑2026, shifting capital from traditional hubs to cities like Mumbai, São Paulo, Mexico City, and Jakarta. The surge is driven by bank retrenchment, robust demographic growth, and attractive relative yields compared...
CARICOM, Cuba and the U.S.
At the CARICOM summit in St. Kitts and Nevis, leaders denounced U.S. interventions, highlighting a de‑facto oil blockade on Cuba and pressure on the island’s medical‑mission exports. Prime Minister Terrance Drew described severe shortages of food, water and electricity, while...
Contesting Self-Governance in the South Pacific
New Zealand’s foreign minister announced a NZ $30 million aid suspension to the Cook Islands after the Pacific nation failed to consult Wellington on a deep‑sea mining partnership with China. The dispute centers on the interpretation of the Cook Islands’ free‑association status...
How Timor-Leste Uses Tourism to Cement Its ASEAN Role
Timor‑Leste is leveraging its recent ASEAN membership to accelerate a sustainable tourism strategy that showcases its pristine marine and mountainous assets. By joining ASEAN, the nation gains access to regional marketing channels and co‑branding opportunities, allowing it to present itself...
Trump's State of the Union Included Almost 1,200 Words About His LatAm Policies
Trump’s 2026 State of the Union devoted nearly 1,200 words to Latin American policy, far outpacing other regional references. The speech stressed new trade tariffs, immigration reforms, and security cooperation, echoing recent moves such as Honduras expelling Cuban doctors and...
The Argentina Deal Is the Template of How Deals in the New World Order Will Work
On February 5, the United States and Argentina signed a bilateral agreement that goes beyond tariff cuts to align trade, investment, and national‑security priorities in critical minerals and energy. The pact obliges Argentina to facilitate U.S. investment across the entire...
Asia Daily: February 25, 2026
China signaled it will weigh counter‑measures after the United States imposed a temporary 15% tariff on all imports, while urging Washington to cancel unilateral duties and resume frank trade talks. A new IISS study warned that ongoing anti‑corruption purges have...
What India’s New Inflation Data Is Hiding | The Great Confusing CPI (Consumer Price Index) Reset
India has unveiled a revamped Consumer Price Index, shifting the base year from 2012 to 2024 and overhauling the basket composition and weighting methodology. The new series shows a headline retail inflation of 2.75% in January 2026, markedly lower than...
Ratcheting up the Economic Coercion on Japan; Mixed Holiday Economic Data; Germany's Merz Arrives in Beijing; US-China; AI; Political Education...
China’s Ministry of Commerce escalated economic pressure on Japan by adding 20 Japanese firms to its export control list and another 20 to a watch list, targeting dual‑use items. Foreign Minister Wang Yi intensified rhetoric, accusing Japan of harboring ambitions...
Guest Contribution: “Understanding Bond-Stock Price Comovements”
The article examines how Treasury bond returns move together with U.S. stock returns, showing that comovement has shifted from positive in the 1980s to negative in the 2000s and back to positive after 2022. Using rolling 90‑day regressions on daily...
The Reconfiguration of Mexico’s Supply Chains
Mexico’s exports to the United States reached record levels last week, yet the country’s trade surplus with its northern neighbor contracted. Analysts attribute the paradox to a strategic reconfiguration of Mexican supply chains, increasingly funneling production toward the U.S. market...
Iran Defenses Armed; Panama Ports Taken Back; Urals Deep Discount | Rapid Read 23 Feb 2026
The United States stopped collecting tariffs that had been invalidated under emergency authority, while President Trump announced a sweeping 15% global tariff that exempts Canada and Mexico but hits Europe hard. Panama reclaimed two strategic canal ports after a court...
China’s New Year Tech Blitz: ByteDance’s New AI Strategy
ByteDance launched Doubao 2.0 just before the Chinese New Year, reaching roughly 155 million weekly active users and touting a pro version that rivals Western models at a tenth of the cost. Alibaba countered with a 3 billion‑yuan voucher campaign tied to its...
The Druzhba Pipeline: Europe’s Soviet-Era Oil Artery in the Crossfire of War and Sanctions
On 27 January 2026 a Russian Shahed drone struck Ukraine’s Brody pumping station, shutting the Druzhba pipeline’s southern branch that supplies Russian Urals crude to Hungary and Slovakia. The outage, now in its 27th day, has cut 60‑70 % of feedstock for MOL...
How Washington and Moscow Drove the EU’s Indo-Pacific Pivot
The European Union is accelerating its engagement with the Indo‑Pacific, highlighted by high‑level visits to India and new free‑trade agreements with Indonesia and a pending deal with India. This pivot reflects two structural shifts: a push for strategic autonomy away...
Comment Letter on Nasdaq’s Proposed Additional Initial Listing Criteria for Companies Primarily Operating in China
The Council of Institutional Investors (CII) submitted a comment letter backing Nasdaq’s proposed rule that adds initial listing criteria for Chinese micro‑cap companies, including a $25 million minimum proceeds requirement. CII applauds the effort to curb abnormal trading in the smallest...
The Global Week Ahead
The Mexican army killed CJNG boss "El Mencho" near Puerto Vallarta, triggering fierce gun battles and an unprecedented U.S. military task‑force partnership. President Trump announced a new 15% tariff regime under Section 122, but it can only stay in effect for...
Armenia’s Not Getting Off the Struggle Bus Just Yet
Armenia’s aging Soviet‑era nuclear reactor leaves the country on the brink of an energy crisis, and Moscow’s dwindling support after the Ukraine war has removed its traditional security backstop. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance recently signed a nuclear cooperation deal...
India Exchanges BRICS Ties for Lead Role in the American AI Cage
India is rapidly pivoting from its BRICS stance toward deeper integration with the West, highlighted by a landmark EU free‑trade agreement and its entry into the US‑led Pax Silica AI alliance. The India‑Middle‑East‑Europe Corridor (IMEC) is being repurposed from a logistics...
Changing Narratives on China-MENA
A wave of think‑tank discussions in early 2025 highlighted a shift in how experts view China’s role in the Middle East. After a period of heightened activity—dubbed “peak China‑MENA” between Xi’s 2022 Saudi visit and the October 2023 Hamas attack—analysts now...
2026-02-23: U.S.-Japan Address China's Nuclear Buildup Amid Regional Military Tensions
The EU faces a three‑fold pressure set: stalled Russia‑Ukraine peace talks, intensified Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, and Hungary and Slovakia using the Druzhba oil pipeline as leverage over EU decisions. Because EU sanctions require unanimity, the energy transit dispute has...
China Weekly Wrap: Markets, Macro & Tech
The episode reviews the Asian market landscape during the week of Feb 15‑20, 2026, highlighting that Mainland China’s Lunar New Year closure shifted price discovery offshore, with earnings-driven rotation favoring North Asian hardware stocks. Korea led the earnings surge thanks...
Interview with Arigato Investor ありがとう投資家 04.02.2026
In this episode, The Macro Butler interviews the Arigato Investors to explore why gold remains a safe‑haven asset during market turbulence and how its appeal is evolving. They discuss the shifting financial centre of gravity toward Asia, highlighting Hong Kong and...
FDI Feint Glorifies Global South Base
The episode examines recent trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) to emerging markets, noting that high‑frequency data shows a steady $10 billion per week inflow, while UNCTAD’s lagging figures report a 2% decline to $875 billion last year. It explores how short‑term...
Ukraine's 'Flamingos' Fly 1,300+ Km Deep in Russia to Hit Putin's Missile Megafactory
The episode examines Ukraine’s covert ‘Flamingo’ drone operations that penetrated over 1,300 km into Russian territory to strike a major missile production facility linked to President Putin. It outlines the technical capabilities of the drones, the strategic impact of disrupting...
George Answers Your Questions: European Nuclear Umbrella, Risks of a United Europe
At the Munich Security Conference, George addressed Europe’s reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, noting that European nuclear forces are insufficient to deter Russia’s vastly larger arsenal. He highlighted the continent’s high population density, which amplifies the catastrophic potential of...