Hegseth Acknowledges China and Russia Could Be Supporting Iran as U.S. Threatens Intensified Strikes Against "New Regime"
The United States launched a massive strike on Iran’s Isfahan ammunition depot, using 2,000‑pound bunker‑buster bombs that caused secondary explosions. Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that China and Russia are providing varying levels of support to Tehran’s war effort, though details remain classified. President Trump signaled a possible wind‑down of the campaign, even as he warned allies to secure their own fuel amid threats to the Strait of Hormuz. The attack pushed Brent crude above $110 a barrel, highlighting the conflict’s energy‑market impact.
Oil Prices Rocket; Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Tanker; Some Hormuz Transits Resumes | Rapid Read 31 Mar 2026
Iran resumed selective control of the Strait of Hormuz, striking a Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai and permitting only flag‑aligned vessels such as COSCO to transit. The move coincides with a U.S. deployment of thousands of Army paratroopers to the Middle...
Geopolitical Endgame and Stagflation
Capital Flows' new report warns that post‑COVID markets have entered a high‑volatility macro regime driven by intensifying U.S.–China geopolitical friction. The analysis links the recent S&P 500 pullback to broader risk flows and explains why the dollar now mirrors these dynamics....
India’s Governing Trilemma and the Paradox of Economic Nationalism
India faces a governing trilemma—democracy, rapid development, and civilizational nationalism—that it cannot satisfy simultaneously. Since 2014, protectionist economic nationalism has limited growth to 5‑6% despite the need for 9‑10% expansion. The paper argues this equilibrium of democracy plus civilizationalism yields...
The Emerging Franco-German Consensus on China
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s February 2026 visit to China signaled a sharp turn in Berlin’s China policy, bringing it in line with France’s more confrontational stance. Over the past three years Germany has grown wary of Chinese competition in the auto...
KMT Chairwoman to Visit China; Li Qiang on Xiong'an; March Politburo Meeting; Beijing Bans Drones; WDO, SAMR on Involution
KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li‑wen will lead a delegation to Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing from April 7‑12, with expectations of a meeting with President Xi Jinping. The visit aims to ease cross‑strait tensions, though its reception within the KMT remains uncertain. On March 27...
Containment without Commitment: China and the Limits of the CRINK Alignment
The Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs released a 35,000‑word report titled “Containment without Commitment: China and the Limits of the CRINK Alignment,” part of its Fault Lines series that dissects trust and mistrust among China, Russia, Iran and North...
Daily Memo: Mediation Efforts, Oil Supplies for Cuba
Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia met in Islamabad to explore diplomatic pathways for ending the Iran‑Saudi conflict. The quartet discussed forming a multilateral consortium to oversee commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, proposing a fee...
Mexico Economic Comments - March 2026
Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, faces sharp criticism from The Economist for failing to deliver the structural reforms she pledged, opting instead for incremental tweaks. The publication highlights that despite external pressures such as the lingering US‑Mexico trade war, USMCA...
China’s Trade Dominance: Good Macro or Strategic Industrial Policies?
China recorded a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, equal to roughly 6 % of its GDP. The surplus stemmed from a broad-based export expansion across multiple sectors, while import growth remained limited to commodities. Analysts link this outcome to both...
The New Baseline
The ongoing war in Iran has morphed from a geopolitical flashpoint into a structural supply‑chain shock. Tehran’s continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of spill‑over into the Bab al‑Mandeb, is tightening energy flows and inflating oil...
Triumph’s China Exit Exposes the Real Reasons Western Brands Fail in the World’s Largest Market
Triumph, the German lingerie maker, shut its China operations in December after 31 years, joining a wave of Western brands exiting the market. While trade wars and geopolitics are often cited, company insiders point to falling sales, shrinking market share,...
A Mad Max World Emerges
The ongoing war in the Middle East and the constriction of maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz are prompting nations to prioritize domestic energy and food security. The article draws parallels with the 14th‑century crisis, when trade barriers, export...
The Illusion of the BRICS as a «Bric-À-Brac»: Why the West Is Wrong to Underestimate the Resilience of BRICS+
The article argues that Western portrayals of the BRICS+ as a disjointed "bric-à-brac" underestimate its growing resilience, especially as India assumes the 2026 presidency amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Despite criticism over heterogeneity, the bloc is expanding its economic infrastructure through...
George Answers Your Questions: Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe
George Friedman argues the Trump administration’s push to destabilize Iran is less about Tehran itself and more about choking China’s future oil supply. He links this strategy to the 2019‑2020 U.S.‑backed regime change in Venezuela, suggesting a pattern of using...
The China 5: EVs Accelerate, Dollar Shortage Bites, Pork Crisis Hits
China’s electric‑vehicle market now commands over half of new car sales, propelling record‑high export volumes that generated a $1.2 trillion trade surplus. Yet most of those earnings sit offshore, creating a hidden domestic dollar shortage that hampers imports and weakens internal...
Logistical Complications for Russian Energy Exports
Russia's oil export revenues have resumed growth after four years of decline, buoyed by higher energy prices and a temporary U.S. sanctions easing. However, the country's ability to capitalize on this rebound is constrained by aging western pipelines and ports...
Leave Your Valuables on the Way Out
Turkey’s central bank sold roughly $3 billion of gold last week, cutting its reserves to 772 tonnes – the steepest weekly decline since August 2018. The sale is part of $26 billion in foreign‑currency sales since the Iran‑related war began, wiping about $35 billion from...
Deep Dive: Strait of Hormuz’s Closure Will Hit Every Economy
The United States and Israel’s conflict with Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting roughly 20% of global oil shipments and disrupting a wide array of petrochemical, industrial gas, and refined product flows. Prices for key commodities such...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.9089 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9089, a key daily fixing watched across Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system permits the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint. The...
China’s $1.2 Trillion Export Surplus Ghost Economy
China’s annual trade surplus now exceeds $1.2 trillion, yet official foreign‑exchange reserves remain around $3 trillion. Export firms split operations between domestic manufacturers and offshore entities in Hong Kong, Singapore or the UAE, invoicing only production costs locally while retaining full profits abroad...
Trump to China in May; Iran War; Manus Mess; Mexico Heading for the Trade Doghouse
President Donald Trump announced a two‑day visit to Beijing on May 14‑15, contingent on the Iran war ending by May 13. The trip follows his public statement linking the cease‑fire to his diplomatic agenda. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice...
Trump May Announce Iran Ceasefire Even WITHOUT a Deal, Israeli Media Reports
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a public cease‑fire announcement with Iran as early as Saturday, even if no formal agreement is in place. Israeli officials, cited by outlets such as N12 and Al Qahera, view the move as...
Is Cuba Next? | Mario Braga, RANE
The Trump administration has signaled it may target Cuba next, prompting a livestream analysis by RANE’s Latin America analyst Mario Braga. Cuba is grappling with a deepening crisis marked by chronic energy shortages, an economy on the brink of collapse, and...
At The Money: Investing in Freedom
The Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM) uses a freedom‑weighted index to allocate capital to the world’s freest emerging‑market economies, deliberately excluding autocratic nations such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. Managed by Life and Liberty Indexes, the...
Oil Falls, Asian Markets Rally as News of US Peace Plan Emerges
The United States delivered a 15‑point peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan, prompting Tehran to announce safe passage for non‑hostile tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil benchmarks reacted sharply, with Brent sliding to $98 a barrel and WTI to...
How Iran Is Repricing Geography
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has tabled a proposal to safeguard Persian Gulf shipping, mirroring the Black Sea grain corridor that kept vital routes open during Ukraine’s war. Iran, traditionally wary of external maritime regulations, appears cautiously receptive to collaborating...
GO-BRICS Synthesis: How 15,000 Young Innovators Are Turning Crisis Into Development
The First International BRICS Countries Hackathon GO‑BRICS Synthesis brought together 15,000 young scientists and engineers from Russia and India to address energy‑security challenges amid a global crisis. Organized under the BRICS International Forum and the GO‑BRICS Business Forum, the event...
Forgive Me Dr. Alhajji, I Was Unfamiliar With Your Game
Dr. Anas Alhajji argues that the U.S. is a major winner from the Hormuz crisis, aligning with the November 2025 National Security Strategy that ties AI dominance to cheap, abundant energy. By disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas...
Trump 5 Day Pause; Trump Claims Talks, Iran Denies; Iran Still Attacks & Hormuz Shut | Rapid Read 24 Mar...
President Trump instructed the Pentagon to suspend planned strikes on Iranian power and energy facilities for five days, citing ongoing diplomatic contacts. Iran publicly rejected the notion of negotiations and warned it would continue mining operations in the Gulf of...
Thanks For The Memory
President Donald Trump postponed a threatened strike on Iran, prompting a brief market rally, but analysts quickly shifted focus to the memory‑chip sector. AI‑driven demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM has turned the traditionally cyclical memory market into...
Trump Claim of Productive Talks with Iran Greeted with Skepticism
President Trump announced a five‑day postponement of planned strikes on Iranian power infrastructure, saying recent talks with Tehran were “very good and productive.” Iran’s parliament speaker rejected the claim, stating no negotiations had taken place and accusing the United States...
Who Is up and Down After the Venezuelan Cabinet Shuffle?
Delcy Rodriguez, Venezuela’s vice‑president, executed a sweeping cabinet reshuffle, replacing roughly half of the ministers and dismissing the entire military high command. Long‑time defense minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, a key power broker for over a decade, was removed from his post....
🌊 Poland's Miraculous Turnaround
Poland’s economy broke the $1 trillion GDP threshold, placing it among the world’s 20 largest economies, and posted a 3.6% growth rate in 2025 – the fastest among EU members in Q4. The surge follows a historic shift that began with...
Senegal Overstretch Saga Shadows Francophone Debt Diversion
The Iran‑related war in the Middle East has effectively halted new sovereign bond issuance in Francophone Sub‑Saharan Africa, leaving the region with only $6 billion of fresh issuance—half of last year’s pace. Credit spreads have surged to 375 basis points, and...
China Is Quietly Looking Weaker
The author revisits the prevailing belief that the 21st century will be dominated by China, drawing parallels to the 1980s hype around Japan. While most Western observers still view China as an unstoppable economic and geopolitical force, the writer now...
Daily Memo: Belarusian Fertilizers, US-Japan Relations
The United States announced it will lift sanctions on two major Belarusian fertilizer producers and two state‑owned banks, including Belinvestbank, after a meeting between President Alexander Lukashenko and U.S. special envoy John Cole. The move is framed as a response to...
Malaysia Cracks Trump’s Tariff Wall
Malaysia announced it is terminating its customs agreement with the United States after a Supreme Court ruling declared the IEEPA‑based tariffs illegal. The original pact imposed a flat 19% tariff on most Malaysian exports, a rate now effectively cut in...
Conditions for US-Russia Rapprochement Fall Into Place
Seven months after the historic Alaska summit, the United States issued a 30‑day waiver permitting limited sales of sanctioned Russian crude, a move aimed at offsetting oil shortages caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver signals...
A Bridge Too Far
Trump signaled a possible off‑ramp for U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, prompting a modest dip in crude prices as Israel paused further strikes. Gulf hardliners, however, remain wary of a resilient Iran that could continue coercive oil tactics despite war...
China’s New 5-Year Plan: Preparing for a Hostile World
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) repositions the country for a hostile international environment, emphasizing geopolitical resilience over the optimistic growth narrative of previous plans. Domestically, the plan pushes for technological self‑reliance and reinforces traditional industries such as metallurgy and shipbuilding,...
Turkmenistan Leader in Beijing; China-Iran War; Rural Land Contracts; US Intelligence Does Not See Invasion of Taiwan in 2027; "Open...
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Turkmenistan’s leader Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in Beijing, reaffirming the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two nations. Xi emphasized unwavering support for Turkmenistan’s sovereignty, neutrality, and independence, while urging deeper collaboration in the natural‑gas sector. The dialogue...
Why Asia Hopes for a Short Mideast War
A potential war in Iran is sending shockwaves through the Asia‑Pacific as the region’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil, LNG and petrochemicals makes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz a catalyst for inflation, supply‑chain strain and strategic uncertainty....
US-China; PRC-Vietnam; H200s; China Cuts the "Apple Tax"; Chinese Modernization and 15th Five-Year Plan
President Trump indicated his long‑awaited summit with Xi Jinping could be pushed back five to six weeks, likely occurring after April 20, as China signals tentative approval but remains cautious amid the ongoing war in Europe. A senior Chinese delegation...
Politicians to Vote Against Their Own Interests
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s ambitious electoral reform was blocked by congressional allies, prompting a scaled‑back Plan B that still forces legislators at every level to slash salaries and perks. The new proposal leaves party budgets and leadership control over candidate selection untouched,...
A Last Gasp for Chinese Growth
China’s January‑February 2026 data showed a surprising rebound, with industrial production climbing to 6.3% year‑on‑year, up from 5.2% in December, driven by stronger‑than‑expected exports. Fixed‑asset investment also turned positive, moving from a 13% contraction in December to a 1.8% expansion....
Hassett on the Economic Impact of the US-Israel-Iran War
Kevin Hassett told CBS’s Face the Nation that the US economy will not be harmed by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, citing abundant domestic oil production and a steep decline in futures‑based oil prices. He argued the temporary 20% disruption to global...
Northern Shift: Iceland’s EU Bid & Sweden’s Euro Debate
Iceland’s new Social Democratic government has scheduled an August referendum to decide whether to restart EU accession talks, with a Gallup poll showing 52% support for re‑engagement. The island already implements roughly three‑quarters of EU law through its EEA and...
Towards Correction?
The S&P 500’s aggregate valuation masks a stark split between the high‑flying Magnificent 7 and the rest of the market. Forward price‑to‑earnings ratios for the Magnificent 7 are significantly higher than those for large‑, mid‑, and small‑cap indices. While the Magnificent 7 index has...
Recommended Weekend Reads
The curated weekend reads reveal that the U.S./Israel strikes on Iran have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly one‑third of global seaborne fertilizer shipments and driving urea prices up about 30% in a month. The disruption exposes the...