US‑Israeli War Triggers Asia‑wide Economic Shock
From fuel rationing in Sri Lanka to restaurant closures in India, flight cancellations in Thailand, and food and fertilizer shocks across Asia -- the ripple effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are global. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/jD1WHbQj6T
China Won’t Be the Biggest Loser if Hormuz Closes
Many commentators on Iran war have seemingly not thought any further ahead than “China is hurt most by Hormuz closing” Below is just one small example of why that view is so wrong 👇
Politicians Hide True War Costs—Hundreds of Billions Missing
When politicians quote war costs, they're usually giving you the Pentagon's grocery bill, not the real economic damage. Oil shocks, lost jobs, delayed investment - the true cost isn't billions, it's hundreds of billions. Always ask: what are they not counting? https://t.co/Q56IHqdfvB
War Damages 39 Energy Sites Across Nine Nations
The New York Times on one of the major economic effects of the War: “At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began...
Iran's Pre‑War Oil Output Peaks, Boosting Condensates for Asia
CHART OF THE DAY: Despite sanctions, ahead of the war, Iran's total oil production had hit a 46-year high. Although most of the attention is on crude, Iran has focused in expanding its output of condensates and natural gas liquids —...
Treasury's “Stranded” Claim Exaggerated; Most Iranian Oil Headed to China
US Treasury says there are 140 million barrels of Iranian oil "stranded" on the water. That's misleading -- if not false. There're about 100 million barrels of Iranian oil on their way to China, and probably another 40 million on...
China's Decline Signals Overlooked Amid Chinese Century Narrative
The Chinese Century is now the conventional wisdom. Previous narratives of China's peak and decline proved premature. But I see some definite signs that China is growing weaker, and only a few people seem to be paying attention. https://t.co/PUBIvyJcaw
Trump Offers $15B Iran Compensation via Oil Sanctions Lift
Trump is dangling $15 billion in compensation in front of Iran by lifting floating oil sanctions, writes @TankerTrackers This is the weirdest war ever It’s coercion, improvisation, and market panic all at once #Iran #Oil #Trump #EnergyMarkets #Sanctions
Iran's Escalation Risks Signal Broader Regional Instability
Iran Intelligence Briefing | 6 March 2026 In this latest intelligence briefing, David breaks down the evolving situation around Iran, the escalation risks that matter most, and the wider regional implications. When events are moving quickly, understanding the deeper pattern is just...
Over Half of Chinese Car Dealers Lose Money in 2025
Caixin: "The China Automobile Dealers Association said in a report that 55.7% of dealerships lost money last year, up 14 percentage points from 2024, as intense competition forced them to sell vehicles below cost." https://t.co/5TsYQRNMxx
China's Trust Sector Abandons Risky Real‑Estate Debt Model
Caixin: "Driven by a regulatory crackdown on risk in the financial system, China's multitrillion-dollar trust industry is being forced to abandon its old, highly profitable model of funneling funds into non-standard debt for real estate projects and local governments." https://t.co/eN5eDafjR4
China, US Pledge New Mechanisms to Boost Trade
People's Daily: "China and the US agreed to explore the establishment of working mechanisms to expand economic and trade cooperation, continue to make good use of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences,...
China's Fixed-Asset Investment Grows 1.8% Early 2024
1/8 Caixin: "China’s fixed-asset investment (FAI) returned to growth in the first two months of this year, rising 1.8% year on year, beating expectations as infrastructure spending jumped." https://t.co/cCOIgPDXNn
US Lifts Iran Oil Sanctions, but Supply Stays Scarce
US suspends Iran oil sanctions for a month, allowing sale of all barrels on water as of March 20. Another band-aid. There are no more than 30 million barrels of Iranian oil in floating storage waiting for buyers, as per ship-tracking...
S&P Drops 5.4% YTD, Losses Concentrated in Two Weeks
Markets have turned. S&P down 5.4% YTD — all of that loss in the last two weeks. War premium showing up fast. Watch this space. https://t.co/D3wvQr7z9M
US Ground Troops in Iran Trigger Market Sell‑off
🚨 UPDATE THE U.S. IS PREPARING TO DEPLOY GROUND FORCES IN IRAN. People are now expecting the war to go on for months. This is why markets are dumping. https://t.co/63v1BaTPgn
War with Iran Could Collapse Global Financial System
If I wanted to discredit US neocons & their foreign sponsors for a generation, I would give them exactly what they have always wanted: A big war with Iran, at their urging… …that leads directly to a collapse of global financial...
War Turns Energy Shock Into Long-Term Economic Threat
Consensus is shifting, and rightly so: This third week of the war has fueled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked by the non-linear risks associated with tipping points and multiple equilibrium...
China’s $250B Marshall‑Plan Fuels EV Surge in Emerging Markets
This is exactly what James Gutman predicted on the latest episode of @EnergyEmpirePod. EVs are selling out in the top 50 emerging markets given the $250B “Marshall Plan” being rolled out by China. https://t.co/75BxCTbmpS
China Gains First Benefit as Iran War Cuts Oil Imports
CHINA ALREADY GOT ITS FIRST WIN FROM THE WAR IN IRAN In today's newsletter, I wrote about how the long term trend of countries reducing their oil imports by substituting them with Chinese tech is already accelerating since the start of...
B
Bessent un-sanctioned Russian oil AFTER WaPo reported Russia was helping Iran targeting US assets the way the US has been helping UKR target Russian assets... ...& yet Wall Street consensus overwhelmingly remains that "Bessent has everything under control." Fade that view, hard
Boxer Won't Reach Gulf Until Mid‑April, Oil Delay
Assuming the USS Boxer is heading to the Middle East, and considering that she only left San Diego two days ago, she won't be near the Persian Gulf until mid-April. If the reinforcements are intended to reopen the Strait of...
Bond Yields Surge Globally, Curve Bears Flattening
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
Extended Hormuz Closure Threatens Sovereign Debt, Consumer Credit
If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem. Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks. Let's...
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Sea‑based Oil Reserves Dwindling, Iran Holds One‑third
This is a very important story: “…The amount of oil stored at sea — a vital buffer for markets — is running down fast…” About 1/3 of what’s left is Iranian. https://t.co/zS7v0338Ay
Russia Shares Ukraine War Tactics with Iran, Threatens US
Russia is taking what they've learned on the battlefield in the Ukraine War and sharing that with Iran. This is not a new strategy for the Russians, but it is already spelling trouble for the US. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/8OrxIIE2pk #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/R8FpGDhPFq
Trump’s Chaos Drives Europe to Forge Ties with China
Chaos unleashed by Trump has Europeans building bridges with China https://t.co/pFSYzBf1W0 via @jendeben @ArneDelfs https://t.co/jlniO6pJgx
China’s Resilience Disproves Collapse Forecasts; Models Need Revision
How is this new, @zriboua? The “China collapse” call has been made for decades Mostly because it doesn’t fit Western models. Yet it hasn’t broken. Maybe the model is wrong, not China. #China #Economics #Macro #Geopolitics #Trade
Southeast Asia's Mass Affluent Opens New Wealth Advisory Market
🌏Capturing Asia’s rising wealth: A massive opportunity has opened to advise #SoutheastAsia’s growing mass affluent segment, which domestic banks have struggled to penetrate. Thanks to @FT_PWM for publishing Liam Reeve’s and my insights: https://t.co/r16mLZ2lEB #WealthManagement #PrivateBanking #WealthTech
Netanyahu Pledges No More Iranian Oil Strikes, Hopes Quicker Peace
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has joined Trump in jawboning the energy market. In a press conference, he said that Israel won't attack anymore oil and gas targets in Iran, and also indicated that the war would be over faster...
Qatar's Gas Strike Halts 30% of Global Nitrogen Fertilizer
The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and...
Apple Shifts Production: 25% of iPhones Made in India
Apple Now Makes About 25% of iPhones in India After China Pivot. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/qnDkCJRBFG
Late‑
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
US, Allies Push De‑Escalation as Iran Escalates; Hormuz Closed
The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the...
US Intel Says China Not Planning 2027 Taiwan Invasion
US intelligence assessment admits China is not planning a 2027 Taiwan invasion, contrary to the assertions of numerous China hawks. h/t PA https://t.co/yR1D5boDrL
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Oil, Derails Bitcoin Rate‑cut Hopes
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Iran has now completely disrupted it and Brent crude surged to $115 this morning. The Fed can't cut its way through a supply shock. And Bitcoin's entire bull case for...
Treasury Secretary Hints at Unsanctioning Iranian Oil, Second SPR Release
What US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told @FoxBusiness about unsanctioning Iranian barrels -- and a potential 2nd SPR release. (I look forward to see how KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait feel about unsanctioning Iranian oil barrels) https://t.co/buyI81abII
Geopolitical Oil Surge Threatens India's Inflation and Rupee
Surging Crude Oil Prices: The geopolitical unrest caused Brent crude oil prices to spike past $115–$118 per barrel. As a major energy importer, this poses a significant risk to India's inflation outlook, the rupee, and corporate profit margins.
Iran Conflict Drives Oil, Fertilizer Prices, Crushing Farmers
NEW ODD LOTS HOW THE IRAN WAR WILL SQUEEZE AMERICA'S FARMERS EVEN FURTHER @TheStalwart & I brought back @AgrisAcademy's Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen to talk about how surging oil and fertilizer costs will make things even harder for farmers: https://t.co/sk6083JH4Y
Twelve Arab Nations Condemn Iran's Missile Attacks
This isn't just Israel's war. 12 Arab & Islamic nations (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria, Türkiye, Pakistan, Azerbaijan) just issued a joint statement from Riyadh strongly condemning Iran's missile/drone attacks on infrastructure. https://t.co/Fr18fPeM8X
Analyzing the Future Trajectory of the U.S. Dollar
Before anybody asks, no, the following is NOT financial advice. The U.S. dollar is constantly in the spotlight, so where is it heading? Full Newsletter: https://t.co/qD5bHTPN4x #usd #usdollar #economy https://t.co/6JfYCZFI5C
Iranian Attacks Surge as US Loses Grip, Markets Wobble
Yes, the U.S. is losing control of the situation in many ways. Iranian attacks have re-intensified, and their hit ratio has increased. Trump's "we've already won" comments are looking increasingly bizarre. Here’s what it means for markets, macroeconomics, and more.
Emerging Market Ambitions Clash with Capital Controls
If the government is intent on the country becoming an emerging market, why does it insist on capital controls and foreign ownership limits? https://t.co/FnahXHXxsu https://t.co/NKzW8fXfGG
Iranian Ayatollahs Condemn UAE’s Growing Open Economy
Iran’s Ayatollahs Attack the Idea of the U.A.E. They hate seeing an open, resilient economy flourish in one of the world’s most contested regions. https://t.co/8UHgwE39t7
China's Energy Shock Unavoidable Despite Renewables and Reserves
The Economist: China cannot escape the energy shock—Despite renewables and reserves, it will suffer https://t.co/hzNezKxOUo
Iran Hits Qatar LNG Hub, Threatening Global Supply
Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex. The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars...
Hormuz Closure Sparks Oil Spike, Not Deficit Monetization
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will...
Iran's Missile Strike Fails; Investors Still Expect Hormuz Opening
Several "dogs that didn't bark" in one headline: -Iran warned ahead of time it would hit Ras Laffan. -It fired five missiles (which it is said to be running out of.) -Four were reportedly intercepted, but one got through. -Investor consensus remains...